[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":39719},["ShallowReactive",2],{"post-\u002Fblog\u002F2026\u002F0005-yin-guo-jie-gou-mo-xing-jian-lun":3,"i-ci:tag":37712,"i-mingcute:time-line":37712,"i-boxicons:location":-1},{"post":4,"nextPost":37721,"prevPost":39432},{"id":5,"title":6,"body":7,"description":37706,"draft":37707,"enableCodeHighlight":37707,"enableCodeHightlight":37707,"enableComment":37708,"enableD2":37708,"enableKatex":37708,"extension":37709,"image":4117,"important":37707,"location":37710,"meta":37711,"navigation":37708,"ogImage":37712,"path":37713,"seo":37714,"stem":37715,"summary":37716,"tags":37717,"time":37719,"__hash__":37720},"blog\u002Fblog\u002F2026\u002F0005-yin-guo-jie-gou-mo-xing-jian-lun.md","因果结构模型简论",{"type":8,"value":9,"toc":37676},"minimark",[10,499,506,1297,1304,1308,1313,2248,3153,3217,3736,3743,4119,4180,4184,4315,4322,4401,4653,4833,4839,4849,4855,4934,5144,5299,5304,5382,5694,6239,6332,6336,6339,6990,7369,7862,7901,7905,7908,8201,8207,8270,8277,8748,8758,8761,9140,9147,9418,9421,9428,9432,11041,11544,11928,11932,12370,12927,13598,13605,13609,13664,15897,16049,16052,16100,16104,16567,17143,17147,18034,18425,18766,19509,21781,21960,21964,22477,22976,24201,25146,25301,25682,25688,25949,25952,25956,26032,26302,26308,26669,27750,27854,28031,28354,28360,28710,29245,29661,29665,29823,30245,31859,32128,32131,32588,32706,32717,33433,34453,34456,34492,34495,34498,34502,34509,35081,35216,35603,35904,36248,36252,36255,36333,36336,36422,36425,36429,36432,36732,36735,36793,36797,36800,36937,36944,36948,36951,37340,37346,37349,37352,37663,37666,37673],[11,12,13,14,83,84,149,150,219,220,303,304,308,309,365,366,431,432,498],"p",{},"为什么概率论不足以回答因果问题？设 ",[15,16,20,51],"span",{"className":17,"translate":19},[18],"katex","no",[15,21,24],{"className":22},[23],"katex-mathml",[25,26,28],"math",{"xmlns":27},"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML",[29,30,31,46],"semantics",{},[32,33,34,38,43],"mrow",{},[35,36,37],"mi",{},"X",[39,40,42],"mo",{"separator":41},"true",",",[35,44,45],{},"Y",[47,48,50],"annotation",{"encoding":49},"application\u002Fx-tex","X, Y",[15,52,55],{"className":53,"ariaHidden":41},[54],"katex-html",[15,56,59,64,70,74,79],{"className":57},[58],"base",[15,60],{"className":61,"style":63},[62],"strut","height:0.8778em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[15,65,37],{"className":66,"style":69},[67,68],"mord","mathnormal","margin-right:0.0785em;",[15,71,42],{"className":72},[73],"mpunct",[15,75],{"className":76,"style":78},[77],"mspace","margin-right:0.1667em;",[15,80,45],{"className":81,"style":82},[67,68],"margin-right:0.2222em;"," 为两个随机变量，概率论所能给出的全部工具是联合分布 ",[15,85,87,115],{"className":86,"translate":19},[18],[15,88,90],{"className":89},[23],[25,91,92],{"xmlns":27},[29,93,94,112],{},[32,95,96,99,103,105,107,109],{},[35,97,98],{},"P",[39,100,102],{"stretchy":101},"false","(",[35,104,37],{},[39,106,42],{"separator":41},[35,108,45],{},[39,110,111],{"stretchy":101},")",[47,113,114],{"encoding":49},"P(X,Y)",[15,116,118],{"className":117,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,119,121,125,129,133,136,139,142,145],{"className":120},[58],[15,122],{"className":123,"style":124},[62],"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[15,126,98],{"className":127,"style":128},[67,68],"margin-right:0.1389em;",[15,130,102],{"className":131},[132],"mopen",[15,134,37],{"className":135,"style":69},[67,68],[15,137,42],{"className":138},[73],[15,140],{"className":141,"style":78},[77],[15,143,45],{"className":144,"style":82},[67,68],[15,146,111],{"className":147},[148],"mclose","、条件分布 ",[15,151,153,178],{"className":152,"translate":19},[18],[15,154,156],{"className":155},[23],[25,157,158],{"xmlns":27},[29,159,160,175],{},[32,161,162,164,166,168,171,173],{},[35,163,98],{},[39,165,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,167,45],{},[39,169,170],{},"∣",[35,172,37],{},[39,174,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,176,177],{"encoding":49},"P(Y\\mid X)",[15,179,181,207],{"className":180,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,182,184,187,190,193,196,200,204],{"className":183},[58],[15,185],{"className":186,"style":124},[62],[15,188,98],{"className":189,"style":128},[67,68],[15,191,102],{"className":192},[132],[15,194,45],{"className":195,"style":82},[67,68],[15,197],{"className":198,"style":199},[77],"margin-right:0.2778em;",[15,201,170],{"className":202},[203],"mrel",[15,205],{"className":206,"style":199},[77],[15,208,210,213,216],{"className":209},[58],[15,211],{"className":212,"style":124},[62],[15,214,37],{"className":215,"style":69},[67,68],[15,217,111],{"className":218},[148],"，以及由此导出的独立性关系 ",[15,221,223,252],{"className":222,"translate":19},[18],[15,224,226],{"className":225},[23],[25,227,228],{"xmlns":27},[29,229,230,249],{},[32,231,232,234,237,241,243,245,247],{},[35,233,37],{},[39,235,236],{},"⊥",[238,239,240],"mtext",{}," ⁣",[238,242,240],{},[238,244,240],{},[39,246,236],{},[35,248,45],{},[47,250,251],{"encoding":49},"X \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp Y",[15,253,255,281,293],{"className":254,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,256,258,262,265,268,271,275,278],{"className":257},[58],[15,259],{"className":260,"style":261},[62],"height:0.6944em;",[15,263,37],{"className":264,"style":69},[67,68],[15,266],{"className":267,"style":199},[77],[15,269,236],{"className":270},[203],[15,272],{"className":273,"style":274},[77],"margin-right:-0.1667em;",[15,276],{"className":277,"style":274},[77],[15,279],{"className":280,"style":274},[77],[15,282,284,287,290],{"className":283},[58],[15,285],{"className":286,"style":261},[62],[15,288,236],{"className":289},[203],[15,291],{"className":292,"style":199},[77],[15,294,296,300],{"className":295},[58],[15,297],{"className":298,"style":299},[62],"height:0.6833em;",[15,301,45],{"className":302,"style":82},[67,68],"。这套语言在数学上是自洽的，但存在一个根本性的表达力缺陷：",[305,306,307],"strong",{},"概率分布对「对称性」是不敏感的","。若已知 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",[15,367,369,392],{"className":368,"translate":19},[18],[15,370,372],{"className":371},[23],[25,373,374],{"xmlns":27},[29,375,376,390],{},[32,377,378,380,382,384,386,388],{},[35,379,98],{},[39,381,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,383,45],{},[39,385,170],{},[35,387,37],{},[39,389,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,391,177],{"encoding":49},[15,393,395,419],{"className":394,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,396,398,401,404,407,410,413,416],{"className":397},[58],[15,399],{"className":400,"style":124},[62],[15,402,98],{"className":403,"style":128},[67,68],[15,405,102],{"className":406},[132],[15,408,45],{"className":409,"style":82},[67,68],[15,411],{"className":412,"style":199},[77],[15,414,170],{"className":415},[203],[15,417],{"className":418,"style":199},[77],[15,420,422,425,428],{"className":421},[58],[15,423],{"className":424,"style":124},[62],[15,426,37],{"className":427,"style":69},[67,68],[15,429,111],{"className":430},[148]," 与 ",[15,433,435,459],{"className":434,"translate":19},[18],[15,436,438],{"className":437},[23],[25,439,440],{"xmlns":27},[29,441,442,456],{},[32,443,444,446,448,450,452,454],{},[35,445,98],{},[39,447,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,449,37],{},[39,451,170],{},[35,453,45],{},[39,455,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,457,458],{"encoding":49},"P(X\\mid Y)",[15,460,462,486],{"className":461,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,463,465,468,471,474,477,480,483],{"className":464},[58],[15,466],{"className":467,"style":124},[62],[15,469,98],{"className":470,"style":128},[67,68],[15,472,102],{"className":473},[132],[15,475,37],{"className":476,"style":69},[67,68],[15,478],{"className":479,"style":199},[77],[15,481,170],{"className":482},[203],[15,484],{"className":485,"style":199},[77],[15,487,489,492,495],{"className":488},[58],[15,490],{"className":491,"style":124},[62],[15,493,45],{"className":494,"style":82},[67,68],[15,496,111],{"className":497},[148]," 皆可通过贝叶斯定理相互推出，二者在信息量上完全等价，谁也不比谁更「根本」。然而在实际世界中，「气压下降导致下雨」与「下雨导致气压下降」显然不是对称的两种表述——只有前者是对的。这种方向性、非对称性的知识，是概率分布本身无法编码的，必须由额外的结构承载。",[11,500,501,502,505],{},"Judea Pearl 将因果知识的层级组织为三层，通常称为",[305,503,504],{},"因果推断阶梯（Ladder of Causation）","：",[507,508,509,669,841],"ul",{},[510,511,512,515,516,585,586,639,640,668],"li",{},[305,513,514],{},"第一层（关联，Association）","：回答形如 ",[15,517,519,545],{"className":518,"translate":19},[18],[15,520,522],{"className":521},[23],[25,523,524],{"xmlns":27},[29,525,526,542],{},[32,527,528,530,532,535,537,540],{},[35,529,98],{},[39,531,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,533,534],{},"y",[39,536,170],{},[35,538,539],{},"x",[39,541,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,543,544],{"encoding":49},"P(y\\mid x)",[15,546,548,573],{"className":547,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,549,551,554,557,560,564,567,570],{"className":550},[58],[15,552],{"className":553,"style":124},[62],[15,555,98],{"className":556,"style":128},[67,68],[15,558,102],{"className":559},[132],[15,561,534],{"className":562,"style":563},[67,68],"margin-right:0.0359em;",[15,565],{"className":566,"style":199},[77],[15,568,170],{"className":569},[203],[15,571],{"className":572,"style":199},[77],[15,574,576,579,582],{"className":575},[58],[15,577],{"className":578,"style":124},[62],[15,580,539],{"className":581},[67,68],[15,583,111],{"className":584},[148]," 的问题，即「观察到 ",[15,587,589,608],{"className":588,"translate":19},[18],[15,590,592],{"className":591},[23],[25,593,594],{"xmlns":27},[29,595,596,605],{},[32,597,598,600,603],{},[35,599,37],{},[39,601,602],{},"=",[35,604,539],{},[47,606,607],{"encoding":49},"X=x",[15,609,611,629],{"className":610,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,612,614,617,620,623,626],{"className":613},[58],[15,615],{"className":616,"style":299},[62],[15,618,37],{"className":619,"style":69},[67,68],[15,621],{"className":622,"style":199},[77],[15,624,602],{"className":625},[203],[15,627],{"className":628,"style":199},[77],[15,630,632,636],{"className":631},[58],[15,633],{"className":634,"style":635},[62],"height:0.4306em;",[15,637,539],{"className":638},[67,68]," 时，",[15,641,643,656],{"className":642,"translate":19},[18],[15,644,646],{"className":645},[23],[25,647,648],{"xmlns":27},[29,649,650,654],{},[32,651,652],{},[35,653,45],{},[47,655,45],{"encoding":49},[15,657,659],{"className":658,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,660,662,665],{"className":661},[58],[15,663],{"className":664,"style":299},[62],[15,666,45],{"className":667,"style":82},[67,68]," 的分布是什么」。这一层是纯统计学的领地。",[510,670,671,515,674,760,761,811,812,840],{},[305,672,673],{},"第二层（干预，Intervention）",[15,675,677,711],{"className":676,"translate":19},[18],[15,678,680],{"className":679},[23],[25,681,682],{"xmlns":27},[29,683,684,708],{},[32,685,686,688,690,692,694,697,700,702,704,706],{},[35,687,98],{},[39,689,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,691,534],{},[39,693,170],{},[35,695,696],{},"d",[35,698,699],{},"o",[39,701,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,703,539],{},[39,705,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,707,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,709,710],{"encoding":49},"P(y\\mid do(x))",[15,712,714,738],{"className":713,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,715,717,720,723,726,729,732,735],{"className":716},[58],[15,718],{"className":719,"style":124},[62],[15,721,98],{"className":722,"style":128},[67,68],[15,724,102],{"className":725},[132],[15,727,534],{"className":728,"style":563},[67,68],[15,730],{"className":731,"style":199},[77],[15,733,170],{"className":734},[203],[15,736],{"className":737,"style":199},[77],[15,739,741,744,747,750,753,756],{"className":740},[58],[15,742],{"className":743,"style":124},[62],[15,745,696],{"className":746},[67,68],[15,748,699],{"className":749},[67,68],[15,751,102],{"className":752},[132],[15,754,539],{"className":755},[67,68],[15,757,759],{"className":758},[148],"))"," 的问题，即「若外部强行使 ",[15,762,764,781],{"className":763,"translate":19},[18],[15,765,767],{"className":766},[23],[25,768,769],{"xmlns":27},[29,770,771,779],{},[32,772,773,775,777],{},[35,774,37],{},[39,776,602],{},[35,778,539],{},[47,780,607],{"encoding":49},[15,782,784,802],{"className":783,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,785,787,790,793,796,799],{"className":786},[58],[15,788],{"className":789,"style":299},[62],[15,791,37],{"className":792,"style":69},[67,68],[15,794],{"className":795,"style":199},[77],[15,797,602],{"className":798},[203],[15,800],{"className":801,"style":199},[77],[15,803,805,808],{"className":804},[58],[15,806],{"className":807,"style":635},[62],[15,809,539],{"className":810},[67,68],"，",[15,813,815,828],{"className":814,"translate":19},[18],[15,816,818],{"className":817},[23],[25,819,820],{"xmlns":27},[29,821,822,826],{},[32,823,824],{},[35,825,45],{},[47,827,45],{"encoding":49},[15,829,831],{"className":830,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,832,834,837],{"className":833},[58],[15,835],{"className":836,"style":299},[62],[15,838,45],{"className":839,"style":82},[67,68]," 的分布是什么」。",[510,842,843,515,846,1056,1057,1210,1211,1239,1240,811,1268,1296],{},[305,844,845],{},"第三层（反事实，Counterfactual）",[15,847,849,894],{"className":848,"translate":19},[18],[15,850,852],{"className":851},[23],[25,853,854],{"xmlns":27},[29,855,856,891],{},[32,857,858,860,862,869,871,881,883,889],{},[35,859,98],{},[39,861,102],{"stretchy":101},[863,864,865,867],"msub",{},[35,866,534],{},[35,868,539],{},[39,870,170],{},[872,873,874,876],"msup",{},[35,875,539],{},[39,877,880],{"mathvariant":878,"lspace":879,"rspace":879},"normal","0em","′",[39,882,42],{"separator":41},[872,884,885,887],{},[35,886,534],{},[39,888,880],{"mathvariant":878,"lspace":879,"rspace":879},[39,890,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,892,893],{"encoding":49},"P(y_x \\mid x', y')",[15,895,897,974],{"className":896,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,898,900,903,906,909,965,968,971],{"className":899},[58],[15,901],{"className":902,"style":124},[62],[15,904,98],{"className":905,"style":128},[67,68],[15,907,102],{"className":908},[132],[15,910,912,915],{"className":911},[67],[15,913,534],{"className":914,"style":563},[67,68],[15,916,919],{"className":917},[918],"msupsub",[15,920,924,956],{"className":921},[922,923],"vlist-t","vlist-t2",[15,925,928,951],{"className":926},[927],"vlist-r",[15,929,933],{"className":930,"style":932},[931],"vlist","height:0.1514em;",[15,934,936,941],{"style":935},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0359em;margin-right:0.05em;",[15,937],{"className":938,"style":940},[939],"pstrut","height:2.7em;",[15,942,948],{"className":943},[944,945,946,947],"sizing","reset-size6","size3","mtight",[15,949,539],{"className":950},[67,68,947],[15,952,955],{"className":953},[954],"vlist-s","​",[15,957,959],{"className":958},[927],[15,960,963],{"className":961,"style":962},[931],"height:0.15em;",[15,964],{},[15,966],{"className":967,"style":199},[77],[15,969,170],{"className":970},[203],[15,972],{"className":973,"style":199},[77],[15,975,977,981,1015,1018,1021,1053],{"className":976},[58],[15,978],{"className":979,"style":980},[62],"height:1.0019em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[15,982,984,987],{"className":983},[67],[15,985,539],{"className":986},[67,68],[15,988,990],{"className":989},[918],[15,991,993],{"className":992},[922],[15,994,996],{"className":995},[927],[15,997,1000],{"className":998,"style":999},[931],"height:0.7519em;",[15,1001,1003,1006],{"style":1002},"top:-3.063em;margin-right:0.05em;",[15,1004],{"className":1005,"style":940},[939],[15,1007,1009],{"className":1008},[944,945,946,947],[15,1010,1012],{"className":1011},[67,947],[15,1013,880],{"className":1014},[67,947],[15,1016,42],{"className":1017},[73],[15,1019],{"className":1020,"style":78},[77],[15,1022,1024,1027],{"className":1023},[67],[15,1025,534],{"className":1026,"style":563},[67,68],[15,1028,1030],{"className":1029},[918],[15,1031,1033],{"className":1032},[922],[15,1034,1036],{"className":1035},[927],[15,1037,1039],{"className":1038,"style":999},[931],[15,1040,1041,1044],{"style":1002},[15,1042],{"className":1043,"style":940},[939],[15,1045,1047],{"className":1046},[944,945,946,947],[15,1048,1050],{"className":1049},[67,947],[15,1051,880],{"className":1052},[67,947],[15,1054,111],{"className":1055},[148]," 的问题，即「已经观测到 ",[15,1058,1060,1094],{"className":1059,"translate":19},[18],[15,1061,1063],{"className":1062},[23],[25,1064,1065],{"xmlns":27},[29,1066,1067,1091],{},[32,1068,1069,1071,1073,1079,1081,1083,1085],{},[35,1070,37],{},[39,1072,602],{},[872,1074,1075,1077],{},[35,1076,539],{},[39,1078,880],{"mathvariant":878,"lspace":879,"rspace":879},[39,1080,42],{"separator":41},[35,1082,45],{},[39,1084,602],{},[872,1086,1087,1089],{},[35,1088,534],{},[39,1090,880],{"mathvariant":878,"lspace":879,"rspace":879},[47,1092,1093],{"encoding":49},"X=x', Y=y'",[15,1095,1097,1115,1172],{"className":1096,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,1098,1100,1103,1106,1109,1112],{"className":1099},[58],[15,1101],{"className":1102,"style":299},[62],[15,1104,37],{"className":1105,"style":69},[67,68],[15,1107],{"className":1108,"style":199},[77],[15,1110,602],{"className":1111},[203],[15,1113],{"className":1114,"style":199},[77],[15,1116,1118,1122,1154,1157,1160,1163,1166,1169],{"className":1117},[58],[15,1119],{"className":1120,"style":1121},[62],"height:0.9463em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[15,1123,1125,1128],{"className":1124},[67],[15,1126,539],{"className":1127},[67,68],[15,1129,1131],{"className":1130},[918],[15,1132,1134],{"className":1133},[922],[15,1135,1137],{"className":1136},[927],[15,1138,1140],{"className":1139,"style":999},[931],[15,1141,1142,1145],{"style":1002},[15,1143],{"className":1144,"style":940},[939],[15,1146,1148],{"className":1147},[944,945,946,947],[15,1149,1151],{"className":1150},[67,947],[15,1152,880],{"className":1153},[67,947],[15,1155,42],{"className":1156},[73],[15,1158],{"className":1159,"style":78},[77],[15,1161,45],{"className":1162,"style":82},[67,68],[15,1164],{"className":1165,"style":199},[77],[15,1167,602],{"className":1168},[203],[15,1170],{"className":1171,"style":199},[77],[15,1173,1175,1178],{"className":1174},[58],[15,1176],{"className":1177,"style":1121},[62],[15,1179,1181,1184],{"className":1180},[67],[15,1182,534],{"className":1183,"style":563},[67,68],[15,1185,1187],{"className":1186},[918],[15,1188,1190],{"className":1189},[922],[15,1191,1193],{"className":1192},[927],[15,1194,1196],{"className":1195,"style":999},[931],[15,1197,1198,1201],{"style":1002},[15,1199],{"className":1200,"style":940},[939],[15,1202,1204],{"className":1203},[944,945,946,947],[15,1205,1207],{"className":1206},[67,947],[15,1208,880],{"className":1209},[67,947]," 的这个个体，若当初 ",[15,1212,1214,1227],{"className":1213,"translate":19},[18],[15,1215,1217],{"className":1216},[23],[25,1218,1219],{"xmlns":27},[29,1220,1221,1225],{},[32,1222,1223],{},[35,1224,37],{},[47,1226,37],{"encoding":49},[15,1228,1230],{"className":1229,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,1231,1233,1236],{"className":1232},[58],[15,1234],{"className":1235,"style":299},[62],[15,1237,37],{"className":1238,"style":69},[67,68]," 被设为 ",[15,1241,1243,1256],{"className":1242,"translate":19},[18],[15,1244,1246],{"className":1245},[23],[25,1247,1248],{"xmlns":27},[29,1249,1250,1254],{},[32,1251,1252],{},[35,1253,539],{},[47,1255,539],{"encoding":49},[15,1257,1259],{"className":1258,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,1260,1262,1265],{"className":1261},[58],[15,1263],{"className":1264,"style":635},[62],[15,1266,539],{"className":1267},[67,68],[15,1269,1271,1284],{"className":1270,"translate":19},[18],[15,1272,1274],{"className":1273},[23],[25,1275,1276],{"xmlns":27},[29,1277,1278,1282],{},[32,1279,1280],{},[35,1281,45],{},[47,1283,45],{"encoding":49},[15,1285,1287],{"className":1286,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,1288,1290,1293],{"className":1289},[58],[15,1291],{"className":1292,"style":299},[62],[15,1294,45],{"className":1295,"style":82},[67,68]," 会取什么值」。",[11,1298,1299,1300,1303],{},"Pearl 证明了一个重要的否定性结论：",[305,1301,1302],{},"在一般情形下，仅凭第一层的信息（即观测分布本身），不足以唯一确定第二层或第三层的量","，除非引入额外的结构假设。这正是因果图、结构因果模型与结构方程存在的意义——它们是在观测分布之外，显式引入的「结构性知识」，使得第二、三层的问题在数学上可解。本文将依次、系统地展开这三个层层递进的形式化工具；随后把这一体系与潜在结果框架、传统结构方程模型等相邻传统作对照，并讨论其成立所依赖的假设与适用边界。",[1305,1306,1307],"h2",{"id":1307},"因果图",[1309,1310,1312],"h3",{"id":1311},"_11-有向无环图的形式化定义","1.1 有向无环图的形式化定义",[1314,1315,1317],"theorem",{"title":1316},"定义 1.1（有向图）",[11,1318,1319,1320,1398,1399,1580,1581,1659,1660,1823,1824,1960,1961,2031,2032,2102,2103,811,2106,2031,2175,2102,2244,2247],{},"一个有向图是一个二元组 ",[15,1321,1323,1352],{"className":1322,"translate":19},[18],[15,1324,1326],{"className":1325},[23],[25,1327,1328],{"xmlns":27},[29,1329,1330,1349],{},[32,1331,1332,1335,1337,1339,1342,1344,1347],{},[35,1333,1334],{},"G",[39,1336,602],{},[39,1338,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,1340,1341],{},"V",[39,1343,42],{"separator":41},[35,1345,1346],{},"E",[39,1348,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,1350,1351],{"encoding":49},"G = (V, E)",[15,1353,1355,1373],{"className":1354,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,1356,1358,1361,1364,1367,1370],{"className":1357},[58],[15,1359],{"className":1360,"style":299},[62],[15,1362,1334],{"className":1363},[67,68],[15,1365],{"className":1366,"style":199},[77],[15,1368,602],{"className":1369},[203],[15,1371],{"className":1372,"style":199},[77],[15,1374,1376,1379,1382,1385,1388,1391,1395],{"className":1375},[58],[15,1377],{"className":1378,"style":124},[62],[15,1380,102],{"className":1381},[132],[15,1383,1341],{"className":1384,"style":82},[67,68],[15,1386,42],{"className":1387},[73],[15,1389],{"className":1390,"style":78},[77],[15,1392,1346],{"className":1393,"style":1394},[67,68],"margin-right:0.0576em;",[15,1396,111],{"className":1397},[148],"，其中 ",[15,1400,1402,1446],{"className":1401,"translate":19},[18],[15,1403,1405],{"className":1404},[23],[25,1406,1407],{"xmlns":27},[29,1408,1409,1443],{},[32,1410,1411,1413,1415,1418,1426,1428,1431,1433,1440],{},[35,1412,1341],{},[39,1414,602],{},[39,1416,1417],{"stretchy":101},"{",[863,1419,1420,1422],{},[35,1421,1341],{},[1423,1424,1425],"mn",{},"1",[39,1427,42],{"separator":41},[39,1429,1430],{},"…",[39,1432,42],{"separator":41},[863,1434,1435,1437],{},[35,1436,1341],{},[35,1438,1439],{},"n",[39,1441,1442],{"stretchy":101},"}",[47,1444,1445],{"encoding":49},"V = \\{V_1, \\dots, V_n\\}",[15,1447,1449,1467],{"className":1448,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,1450,1452,1455,1458,1461,1464],{"className":1451},[58],[15,1453],{"className":1454,"style":299},[62],[15,1456,1341],{"className":1457,"style":82},[67,68],[15,1459],{"className":1460,"style":199},[77],[15,1462,602],{"className":1463},[203],[15,1465],{"className":1466,"style":199},[77],[15,1468,1470,1473,1476,1518,1521,1524,1528,1531,1534,1537,1577],{"className":1469},[58],[15,1471],{"className":1472,"style":124},[62],[15,1474,1417],{"className":1475},[132],[15,1477,1479,1482],{"className":1478},[67],[15,1480,1341],{"className":1481,"style":82},[67,68],[15,1483,1485],{"className":1484},[918],[15,1486,1488,1510],{"className":1487},[922,923],[15,1489,1491,1507],{"className":1490},[927],[15,1492,1495],{"className":1493,"style":1494},[931],"height:0.3011em;",[15,1496,1498,1501],{"style":1497},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.2222em;margin-right:0.05em;",[15,1499],{"className":1500,"style":940},[939],[15,1502,1504],{"className":1503},[944,945,946,947],[15,1505,1425],{"className":1506},[67,947],[15,1508,955],{"className":1509},[954],[15,1511,1513],{"className":1512},[927],[15,1514,1516],{"className":1515,"style":962},[931],[15,1517],{},[15,1519,42],{"className":1520},[73],[15,1522],{"className":1523,"style":78},[77],[15,1525,1430],{"className":1526},[1527],"minner",[15,1529],{"className":1530,"style":78},[77],[15,1532,42],{"className":1533},[73],[15,1535],{"className":1536,"style":78},[77],[15,1538,1540,1543],{"className":1539},[67],[15,1541,1341],{"className":1542,"style":82},[67,68],[15,1544,1546],{"className":1545},[918],[15,1547,1549,1569],{"className":1548},[922,923],[15,1550,1552,1566],{"className":1551},[927],[15,1553,1555],{"className":1554,"style":932},[931],[15,1556,1557,1560],{"style":1497},[15,1558],{"className":1559,"style":940},[939],[15,1561,1563],{"className":1562},[944,945,946,947],[15,1564,1439],{"className":1565},[67,68,947],[15,1567,955],{"className":1568},[954],[15,1570,1572],{"className":1571},[927],[15,1573,1575],{"className":1574,"style":962},[931],[15,1576],{},[15,1578,1442],{"className":1579},[148]," 是节点（顶点）的有限集合，",[15,1582,1584,1608],{"className":1583,"translate":19},[18],[15,1585,1587],{"className":1586},[23],[25,1588,1589],{"xmlns":27},[29,1590,1591,1605],{},[32,1592,1593,1595,1598,1600,1603],{},[35,1594,1346],{},[39,1596,1597],{},"⊆",[35,1599,1341],{},[39,1601,1602],{},"×",[35,1604,1341],{},[47,1606,1607],{"encoding":49},"E \\subseteq V \\times V",[15,1609,1611,1630,1650],{"className":1610,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,1612,1614,1618,1621,1624,1627],{"className":1613},[58],[15,1615],{"className":1616,"style":1617},[62],"height:0.8193em;vertical-align:-0.136em;",[15,1619,1346],{"className":1620,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,1622],{"className":1623,"style":199},[77],[15,1625,1597],{"className":1626},[203],[15,1628],{"className":1629,"style":199},[77],[15,1631,1633,1637,1640,1643,1647],{"className":1632},[58],[15,1634],{"className":1635,"style":1636},[62],"height:0.7667em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[15,1638,1341],{"className":1639,"style":82},[67,68],[15,1641],{"className":1642,"style":82},[77],[15,1644,1602],{"className":1645},[1646],"mbin",[15,1648],{"className":1649,"style":82},[77],[15,1651,1653,1656],{"className":1652},[58],[15,1654],{"className":1655,"style":299},[62],[15,1657,1341],{"className":1658,"style":82},[67,68]," 是有向边的集合。若 ",[15,1661,1663,1700],{"className":1662,"translate":19},[18],[15,1664,1666],{"className":1665},[23],[25,1667,1668],{"xmlns":27},[29,1669,1670,1697],{},[32,1671,1672,1674,1681,1683,1690,1692,1695],{},[39,1673,102],{"stretchy":101},[863,1675,1676,1678],{},[35,1677,1341],{},[35,1679,1680],{},"i",[39,1682,42],{"separator":41},[863,1684,1685,1687],{},[35,1686,1341],{},[35,1688,1689],{},"j",[39,1691,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,1693,1694],{},"∈",[35,1696,1346],{},[47,1698,1699],{"encoding":49},"(V_i, V_j) \\in E",[15,1701,1703,1814],{"className":1702,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,1704,1706,1710,1713,1754,1757,1760,1802,1805,1808,1811],{"className":1705},[58],[15,1707],{"className":1708,"style":1709},[62],"height:1.0361em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;",[15,1711,102],{"className":1712},[132],[15,1714,1716,1719],{"className":1715},[67],[15,1717,1341],{"className":1718,"style":82},[67,68],[15,1720,1722],{"className":1721},[918],[15,1723,1725,1746],{"className":1724},[922,923],[15,1726,1728,1743],{"className":1727},[927],[15,1729,1732],{"className":1730,"style":1731},[931],"height:0.3117em;",[15,1733,1734,1737],{"style":1497},[15,1735],{"className":1736,"style":940},[939],[15,1738,1740],{"className":1739},[944,945,946,947],[15,1741,1680],{"className":1742},[67,68,947],[15,1744,955],{"className":1745},[954],[15,1747,1749],{"className":1748},[927],[15,1750,1752],{"className":1751,"style":962},[931],[15,1753],{},[15,1755,42],{"className":1756},[73],[15,1758],{"className":1759,"style":78},[77],[15,1761,1763,1766],{"className":1762},[67],[15,1764,1341],{"className":1765,"style":82},[67,68],[15,1767,1769],{"className":1768},[918],[15,1770,1772,1793],{"className":1771},[922,923],[15,1773,1775,1790],{"className":1774},[927],[15,1776,1778],{"className":1777,"style":1731},[931],[15,1779,1780,1783],{"style":1497},[15,1781],{"className":1782,"style":940},[939],[15,1784,1786],{"className":1785},[944,945,946,947],[15,1787,1689],{"className":1788,"style":1789},[67,68,947],"margin-right:0.0572em;",[15,1791,955],{"className":1792},[954],[15,1794,1796],{"className":1795},[927],[15,1797,1800],{"className":1798,"style":1799},[931],"height:0.2861em;",[15,1801],{},[15,1803,111],{"className":1804},[148],[15,1806],{"className":1807,"style":199},[77],[15,1809,1694],{"className":1810},[203],[15,1812],{"className":1813,"style":199},[77],[15,1815,1817,1820],{"className":1816},[58],[15,1818],{"className":1819,"style":299},[62],[15,1821,1346],{"className":1822,"style":1394},[67,68],"，记作 ",[15,1825,1827,1854],{"className":1826,"translate":19},[18],[15,1828,1830],{"className":1829},[23],[25,1831,1832],{"xmlns":27},[29,1833,1834,1851],{},[32,1835,1836,1842,1845],{},[863,1837,1838,1840],{},[35,1839,1341],{},[35,1841,1680],{},[39,1843,1844],{},"→",[863,1846,1847,1849],{},[35,1848,1341],{},[35,1850,1689],{},[47,1852,1853],{"encoding":49},"V_i \\to V_j",[15,1855,1857,1913],{"className":1856,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,1858,1860,1864,1904,1907,1910],{"className":1859},[58],[15,1861],{"className":1862,"style":1863},[62],"height:0.8333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[15,1865,1867,1870],{"className":1866},[67],[15,1868,1341],{"className":1869,"style":82},[67,68],[15,1871,1873],{"className":1872},[918],[15,1874,1876,1896],{"className":1875},[922,923],[15,1877,1879,1893],{"className":1878},[927],[15,1880,1882],{"className":1881,"style":1731},[931],[15,1883,1884,1887],{"style":1497},[15,1885],{"className":1886,"style":940},[939],[15,1888,1890],{"className":1889},[944,945,946,947],[15,1891,1680],{"className":1892},[67,68,947],[15,1894,955],{"className":1895},[954],[15,1897,1899],{"className":1898},[927],[15,1900,1902],{"className":1901,"style":962},[931],[15,1903],{},[15,1905],{"className":1906,"style":199},[77],[15,1908,1844],{"className":1909},[203],[15,1911],{"className":1912,"style":199},[77],[15,1914,1916,1920],{"className":1915},[58],[15,1917],{"className":1918,"style":1919},[62],"height:0.9694em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;",[15,1921,1923,1926],{"className":1922},[67],[15,1924,1341],{"className":1925,"style":82},[67,68],[15,1927,1929],{"className":1928},[918],[15,1930,1932,1952],{"className":1931},[922,923],[15,1933,1935,1949],{"className":1934},[927],[15,1936,1938],{"className":1937,"style":1731},[931],[15,1939,1940,1943],{"style":1497},[15,1941],{"className":1942,"style":940},[939],[15,1944,1946],{"className":1945},[944,945,946,947],[15,1947,1689],{"className":1948,"style":1789},[67,68,947],[15,1950,955],{"className":1951},[954],[15,1953,1955],{"className":1954},[927],[15,1956,1958],{"className":1957,"style":1799},[931],[15,1959],{},"，称 ",[15,1962,1964,1982],{"className":1963,"translate":19},[18],[15,1965,1967],{"className":1966},[23],[25,1968,1969],{"xmlns":27},[29,1970,1971,1979],{},[32,1972,1973],{},[863,1974,1975,1977],{},[35,1976,1341],{},[35,1978,1680],{},[47,1980,1981],{"encoding":49},"V_i",[15,1983,1985],{"className":1984,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,1986,1988,1991],{"className":1987},[58],[15,1989],{"className":1990,"style":1863},[62],[15,1992,1994,1997],{"className":1993},[67],[15,1995,1341],{"className":1996,"style":82},[67,68],[15,1998,2000],{"className":1999},[918],[15,2001,2003,2023],{"className":2002},[922,923],[15,2004,2006,2020],{"className":2005},[927],[15,2007,2009],{"className":2008,"style":1731},[931],[15,2010,2011,2014],{"style":1497},[15,2012],{"className":2013,"style":940},[939],[15,2015,2017],{"className":2016},[944,945,946,947],[15,2018,1680],{"className":2019},[67,68,947],[15,2021,955],{"className":2022},[954],[15,2024,2026],{"className":2025},[927],[15,2027,2029],{"className":2028,"style":962},[931],[15,2030],{}," 为 ",[15,2033,2035,2053],{"className":2034,"translate":19},[18],[15,2036,2038],{"className":2037},[23],[25,2039,2040],{"xmlns":27},[29,2041,2042,2050],{},[32,2043,2044],{},[863,2045,2046,2048],{},[35,2047,1341],{},[35,2049,1689],{},[47,2051,2052],{"encoding":49},"V_j",[15,2054,2056],{"className":2055,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,2057,2059,2062],{"className":2058},[58],[15,2060],{"className":2061,"style":1919},[62],[15,2063,2065,2068],{"className":2064},[67],[15,2066,1341],{"className":2067,"style":82},[67,68],[15,2069,2071],{"className":2070},[918],[15,2072,2074,2094],{"className":2073},[922,923],[15,2075,2077,2091],{"className":2076},[927],[15,2078,2080],{"className":2079,"style":1731},[931],[15,2081,2082,2085],{"style":1497},[15,2083],{"className":2084,"style":940},[939],[15,2086,2088],{"className":2087},[944,945,946,947],[15,2089,1689],{"className":2090,"style":1789},[67,68,947],[15,2092,955],{"className":2093},[954],[15,2095,2097],{"className":2096},[927],[15,2098,2100],{"className":2099,"style":1799},[931],[15,2101],{}," 的",[305,2104,2105],{},"父节点（parent）",[15,2107,2109,2126],{"className":2108,"translate":19},[18],[15,2110,2112],{"className":2111},[23],[25,2113,2114],{"xmlns":27},[29,2115,2116,2124],{},[32,2117,2118],{},[863,2119,2120,2122],{},[35,2121,1341],{},[35,2123,1689],{},[47,2125,2052],{"encoding":49},[15,2127,2129],{"className":2128,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,2130,2132,2135],{"className":2131},[58],[15,2133],{"className":2134,"style":1919},[62],[15,2136,2138,2141],{"className":2137},[67],[15,2139,1341],{"className":2140,"style":82},[67,68],[15,2142,2144],{"className":2143},[918],[15,2145,2147,2167],{"className":2146},[922,923],[15,2148,2150,2164],{"className":2149},[927],[15,2151,2153],{"className":2152,"style":1731},[931],[15,2154,2155,2158],{"style":1497},[15,2156],{"className":2157,"style":940},[939],[15,2159,2161],{"className":2160},[944,945,946,947],[15,2162,1689],{"className":2163,"style":1789},[67,68,947],[15,2165,955],{"className":2166},[954],[15,2168,2170],{"className":2169},[927],[15,2171,2173],{"className":2172,"style":1799},[931],[15,2174],{},[15,2176,2178,2195],{"className":2177,"translate":19},[18],[15,2179,2181],{"className":2180},[23],[25,2182,2183],{"xmlns":27},[29,2184,2185,2193],{},[32,2186,2187],{},[863,2188,2189,2191],{},[35,2190,1341],{},[35,2192,1680],{},[47,2194,1981],{"encoding":49},[15,2196,2198],{"className":2197,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,2199,2201,2204],{"className":2200},[58],[15,2202],{"className":2203,"style":1863},[62],[15,2205,2207,2210],{"className":2206},[67],[15,2208,1341],{"className":2209,"style":82},[67,68],[15,2211,2213],{"className":2212},[918],[15,2214,2216,2236],{"className":2215},[922,923],[15,2217,2219,2233],{"className":2218},[927],[15,2220,2222],{"className":2221,"style":1731},[931],[15,2223,2224,2227],{"style":1497},[15,2225],{"className":2226,"style":940},[939],[15,2228,2230],{"className":2229},[944,945,946,947],[15,2231,1680],{"className":2232},[67,68,947],[15,2234,955],{"className":2235},[954],[15,2237,2239],{"className":2238},[927],[15,2240,2242],{"className":2241,"style":962},[931],[15,2243],{},[305,2245,2246],{},"子节点（child）","。",[1314,2249,2251],{"title":2250},"定义 1.2（路径）",[11,2252,2253,2254,2282,2283,2352,2353,2422,2423,2426,2427,2766,2767,811,2797,431,2868,2956,2957,2960,2961,3094,3095,3149,3150,2247],{},"图 ",[15,2255,2257,2270],{"className":2256,"translate":19},[18],[15,2258,2260],{"className":2259},[23],[25,2261,2262],{"xmlns":27},[29,2263,2264,2268],{},[32,2265,2266],{},[35,2267,1334],{},[47,2269,1334],{"encoding":49},[15,2271,2273],{"className":2272,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,2274,2276,2279],{"className":2275},[58],[15,2277],{"className":2278,"style":299},[62],[15,2280,1334],{"className":2281},[67,68]," 中从 ",[15,2284,2286,2303],{"className":2285,"translate":19},[18],[15,2287,2289],{"className":2288},[23],[25,2290,2291],{"xmlns":27},[29,2292,2293,2301],{},[32,2294,2295],{},[863,2296,2297,2299],{},[35,2298,1341],{},[35,2300,1680],{},[47,2302,1981],{"encoding":49},[15,2304,2306],{"className":2305,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,2307,2309,2312],{"className":2308},[58],[15,2310],{"className":2311,"style":1863},[62],[15,2313,2315,2318],{"className":2314},[67],[15,2316,1341],{"className":2317,"style":82},[67,68],[15,2319,2321],{"className":2320},[918],[15,2322,2324,2344],{"className":2323},[922,923],[15,2325,2327,2341],{"className":2326},[927],[15,2328,2330],{"className":2329,"style":1731},[931],[15,2331,2332,2335],{"style":1497},[15,2333],{"className":2334,"style":940},[939],[15,2336,2338],{"className":2337},[944,945,946,947],[15,2339,1680],{"className":2340},[67,68,947],[15,2342,955],{"className":2343},[954],[15,2345,2347],{"className":2346},[927],[15,2348,2350],{"className":2349,"style":962},[931],[15,2351],{}," 到 ",[15,2354,2356,2373],{"className":2355,"translate":19},[18],[15,2357,2359],{"className":2358},[23],[25,2360,2361],{"xmlns":27},[29,2362,2363,2371],{},[32,2364,2365],{},[863,2366,2367,2369],{},[35,2368,1341],{},[35,2370,1689],{},[47,2372,2052],{"encoding":49},[15,2374,2376],{"className":2375,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,2377,2379,2382],{"className":2378},[58],[15,2380],{"className":2381,"style":1919},[62],[15,2383,2385,2388],{"className":2384},[67],[15,2386,1341],{"className":2387,"style":82},[67,68],[15,2389,2391],{"className":2390},[918],[15,2392,2394,2414],{"className":2393},[922,923],[15,2395,2397,2411],{"className":2396},[927],[15,2398,2400],{"className":2399,"style":1731},[931],[15,2401,2402,2405],{"style":1497},[15,2403],{"className":2404,"style":940},[939],[15,2406,2408],{"className":2407},[944,945,946,947],[15,2409,1689],{"className":2410,"style":1789},[67,68,947],[15,2412,955],{"className":2413},[954],[15,2415,2417],{"className":2416},[927],[15,2418,2420],{"className":2419,"style":1799},[931],[15,2421],{}," 的一条",[305,2424,2425],{},"路径","是一个节点序列 ",[15,2428,2430,2493],{"className":2429,"translate":19},[18],[15,2431,2433],{"className":2432},[23],[25,2434,2435],{"xmlns":27},[29,2436,2437,2490],{},[32,2438,2439,2442,2448,2450,2458,2460,2466,2468,2470,2472,2479,2481,2487],{},[39,2440,2441],{"stretchy":101},"⟨",[863,2443,2444,2446],{},[35,2445,1341],{},[35,2447,1680],{},[39,2449,602],{},[863,2451,2452,2455],{},[35,2453,2454],{},"U",[1423,2456,2457],{},"0",[39,2459,42],{"separator":41},[863,2461,2462,2464],{},[35,2463,2454],{},[1423,2465,1425],{},[39,2467,42],{"separator":41},[39,2469,1430],{},[39,2471,42],{"separator":41},[863,2473,2474,2476],{},[35,2475,2454],{},[35,2477,2478],{},"k",[39,2480,602],{},[863,2482,2483,2485],{},[35,2484,1341],{},[35,2486,1689],{},[39,2488,2489],{"stretchy":101},"⟩",[47,2491,2492],{"encoding":49},"\\langle V_i = U_0, U_1, \\dots, U_k = V_j\\rangle",[15,2494,2496,2554,2717],{"className":2495,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,2497,2499,2502,2505,2545,2548,2551],{"className":2498},[58],[15,2500],{"className":2501,"style":124},[62],[15,2503,2441],{"className":2504},[132],[15,2506,2508,2511],{"className":2507},[67],[15,2509,1341],{"className":2510,"style":82},[67,68],[15,2512,2514],{"className":2513},[918],[15,2515,2517,2537],{"className":2516},[922,923],[15,2518,2520,2534],{"className":2519},[927],[15,2521,2523],{"className":2522,"style":1731},[931],[15,2524,2525,2528],{"style":1497},[15,2526],{"className":2527,"style":940},[939],[15,2529,2531],{"className":2530},[944,945,946,947],[15,2532,1680],{"className":2533},[67,68,947],[15,2535,955],{"className":2536},[954],[15,2538,2540],{"className":2539},[927],[15,2541,2543],{"className":2542,"style":962},[931],[15,2544],{},[15,2546],{"className":2547,"style":199},[77],[15,2549,602],{"className":2550},[203],[15,2552],{"className":2553,"style":199},[77],[15,2555,2557,2560,2602,2605,2608,2648,2651,2654,2657,2660,2663,2666,2708,2711,2714],{"className":2556},[58],[15,2558],{"className":2559,"style":63},[62],[15,2561,2563,2567],{"className":2562},[67],[15,2564,2454],{"className":2565,"style":2566},[67,68],"margin-right:0.109em;",[15,2568,2570],{"className":2569},[918],[15,2571,2573,2594],{"className":2572},[922,923],[15,2574,2576,2591],{"className":2575},[927],[15,2577,2579],{"className":2578,"style":1494},[931],[15,2580,2582,2585],{"style":2581},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.109em;margin-right:0.05em;",[15,2583],{"className":2584,"style":940},[939],[15,2586,2588],{"className":2587},[944,945,946,947],[15,2589,2457],{"className":2590},[67,947],[15,2592,955],{"className":2593},[954],[15,2595,2597],{"className":2596},[927],[15,2598,2600],{"className":2599,"style":962},[931],[15,2601],{},[15,2603,42],{"className":2604},[73],[15,2606],{"className":2607,"style":78},[77],[15,2609,2611,2614],{"className":2610},[67],[15,2612,2454],{"className":2613,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,2615,2617],{"className":2616},[918],[15,2618,2620,2640],{"className":2619},[922,923],[15,2621,2623,2637],{"className":2622},[927],[15,2624,2626],{"className":2625,"style":1494},[931],[15,2627,2628,2631],{"style":2581},[15,2629],{"className":2630,"style":940},[939],[15,2632,2634],{"className":2633},[944,945,946,947],[15,2635,1425],{"className":2636},[67,947],[15,2638,955],{"className":2639},[954],[15,2641,2643],{"className":2642},[927],[15,2644,2646],{"className":2645,"style":962},[931],[15,2647],{},[15,2649,42],{"className":2650},[73],[15,2652],{"className":2653,"style":78},[77],[15,2655,1430],{"className":2656},[1527],[15,2658],{"className":2659,"style":78},[77],[15,2661,42],{"className":2662},[73],[15,2664],{"className":2665,"style":78},[77],[15,2667,2669,2672],{"className":2668},[67],[15,2670,2454],{"className":2671,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,2673,2675],{"className":2674},[918],[15,2676,2678,2700],{"className":2677},[922,923],[15,2679,2681,2697],{"className":2680},[927],[15,2682,2685],{"className":2683,"style":2684},[931],"height:0.3361em;",[15,2686,2687,2690],{"style":2581},[15,2688],{"className":2689,"style":940},[939],[15,2691,2693],{"className":2692},[944,945,946,947],[15,2694,2478],{"className":2695,"style":2696},[67,68,947],"margin-right:0.0315em;",[15,2698,955],{"className":2699},[954],[15,2701,2703],{"className":2702},[927],[15,2704,2706],{"className":2705,"style":962},[931],[15,2707],{},[15,2709],{"className":2710,"style":199},[77],[15,2712,602],{"className":2713},[203],[15,2715],{"className":2716,"style":199},[77],[15,2718,2720,2723,2763],{"className":2719},[58],[15,2721],{"className":2722,"style":1709},[62],[15,2724,2726,2729],{"className":2725},[67],[15,2727,1341],{"className":2728,"style":82},[67,68],[15,2730,2732],{"className":2731},[918],[15,2733,2735,2755],{"className":2734},[922,923],[15,2736,2738,2752],{"className":2737},[927],[15,2739,2741],{"className":2740,"style":1731},[931],[15,2742,2743,2746],{"style":1497},[15,2744],{"className":2745,"style":940},[939],[15,2747,2749],{"className":2748},[944,945,946,947],[15,2750,1689],{"className":2751,"style":1789},[67,68,947],[15,2753,955],{"className":2754},[954],[15,2756,2758],{"className":2757},[927],[15,2759,2761],{"className":2760,"style":1799},[931],[15,2762],{},[15,2764,2489],{"className":2765},[148],"，使得对每个 ",[15,2768,2770,2784],{"className":2769,"translate":19},[18],[15,2771,2773],{"className":2772},[23],[25,2774,2775],{"xmlns":27},[29,2776,2777,2782],{},[32,2778,2779],{},[35,2780,2781],{},"t",[47,2783,2781],{"encoding":49},[15,2785,2787],{"className":2786,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,2788,2790,2794],{"className":2789},[58],[15,2791],{"className":2792,"style":2793},[62],"height:0.6151em;",[15,2795,2781],{"className":2796},[67,68],[15,2798,2800,2818],{"className":2799,"translate":19},[18],[15,2801,2803],{"className":2802},[23],[25,2804,2805],{"xmlns":27},[29,2806,2807,2815],{},[32,2808,2809],{},[863,2810,2811,2813],{},[35,2812,2454],{},[35,2814,2781],{},[47,2816,2817],{"encoding":49},"U_t",[15,2819,2821],{"className":2820,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,2822,2824,2827],{"className":2823},[58],[15,2825],{"className":2826,"style":1863},[62],[15,2828,2830,2833],{"className":2829},[67],[15,2831,2454],{"className":2832,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,2834,2836],{"className":2835},[918],[15,2837,2839,2860],{"className":2838},[922,923],[15,2840,2842,2857],{"className":2841},[927],[15,2843,2846],{"className":2844,"style":2845},[931],"height:0.2806em;",[15,2847,2848,2851],{"style":2581},[15,2849],{"className":2850,"style":940},[939],[15,2852,2854],{"className":2853},[944,945,946,947],[15,2855,2781],{"className":2856},[67,68,947],[15,2858,955],{"className":2859},[954],[15,2861,2863],{"className":2862},[927],[15,2864,2866],{"className":2865,"style":962},[931],[15,2867],{},[15,2869,2871,2896],{"className":2870,"translate":19},[18],[15,2872,2874],{"className":2873},[23],[25,2875,2876],{"xmlns":27},[29,2877,2878,2893],{},[32,2879,2880],{},[863,2881,2882,2884],{},[35,2883,2454],{},[32,2885,2886,2888,2891],{},[35,2887,2781],{},[39,2889,2890],{},"+",[1423,2892,1425],{},[47,2894,2895],{"encoding":49},"U_{t+1}",[15,2897,2899],{"className":2898,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,2900,2902,2906],{"className":2901},[58],[15,2903],{"className":2904,"style":2905},[62],"height:0.8917em;vertical-align:-0.2083em;",[15,2907,2909,2912],{"className":2908},[67],[15,2910,2454],{"className":2911,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,2913,2915],{"className":2914},[918],[15,2916,2918,2947],{"className":2917},[922,923],[15,2919,2921,2944],{"className":2920},[927],[15,2922,2924],{"className":2923,"style":1494},[931],[15,2925,2926,2929],{"style":2581},[15,2927],{"className":2928,"style":940},[939],[15,2930,2932],{"className":2931},[944,945,946,947],[15,2933,2935,2938,2941],{"className":2934},[67,947],[15,2936,2781],{"className":2937},[67,68,947],[15,2939,2890],{"className":2940},[1646,947],[15,2942,1425],{"className":2943},[67,947],[15,2945,955],{"className":2946},[954],[15,2948,2950],{"className":2949},[927],[15,2951,2954],{"className":2952,"style":2953},[931],"height:0.2083em;",[15,2955],{}," 之间存在一条边（不论方向）。若路径上所有边的方向都与路径前进方向一致，称为",[305,2958,2959],{},"有向路径","；若 ",[15,2962,2964,2990],{"className":2963,"translate":19},[18],[15,2965,2967],{"className":2966},[23],[25,2968,2969],{"xmlns":27},[29,2970,2971,2987],{},[32,2972,2973,2979,2981],{},[863,2974,2975,2977],{},[35,2976,2454],{},[1423,2978,2457],{},[39,2980,602],{},[863,2982,2983,2985],{},[35,2984,2454],{},[35,2986,2478],{},[47,2988,2989],{"encoding":49},"U_0 = U_k",[15,2991,2993,3048],{"className":2992,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,2994,2996,2999,3039,3042,3045],{"className":2995},[58],[15,2997],{"className":2998,"style":1863},[62],[15,3000,3002,3005],{"className":3001},[67],[15,3003,2454],{"className":3004,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,3006,3008],{"className":3007},[918],[15,3009,3011,3031],{"className":3010},[922,923],[15,3012,3014,3028],{"className":3013},[927],[15,3015,3017],{"className":3016,"style":1494},[931],[15,3018,3019,3022],{"style":2581},[15,3020],{"className":3021,"style":940},[939],[15,3023,3025],{"className":3024},[944,945,946,947],[15,3026,2457],{"className":3027},[67,947],[15,3029,955],{"className":3030},[954],[15,3032,3034],{"className":3033},[927],[15,3035,3037],{"className":3036,"style":962},[931],[15,3038],{},[15,3040],{"className":3041,"style":199},[77],[15,3043,602],{"className":3044},[203],[15,3046],{"className":3047,"style":199},[77],[15,3049,3051,3054],{"className":3050},[58],[15,3052],{"className":3053,"style":1863},[62],[15,3055,3057,3060],{"className":3056},[67],[15,3058,2454],{"className":3059,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,3061,3063],{"className":3062},[918],[15,3064,3066,3086],{"className":3065},[922,923],[15,3067,3069,3083],{"className":3068},[927],[15,3070,3072],{"className":3071,"style":2684},[931],[15,3073,3074,3077],{"style":2581},[15,3075],{"className":3076,"style":940},[939],[15,3078,3080],{"className":3079},[944,945,946,947],[15,3081,2478],{"className":3082,"style":2696},[67,68,947],[15,3084,955],{"className":3085},[954],[15,3087,3089],{"className":3088},[927],[15,3090,3092],{"className":3091,"style":962},[931],[15,3093],{}," 且 ",[15,3096,3098,3117],{"className":3097,"translate":19},[18],[15,3099,3101],{"className":3100},[23],[25,3102,3103],{"xmlns":27},[29,3104,3105,3114],{},[32,3106,3107,3109,3112],{},[35,3108,2478],{},[39,3110,3111],{},"≥",[1423,3113,1425],{},[47,3115,3116],{"encoding":49},"k \\geq 1",[15,3118,3120,3139],{"className":3119,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,3121,3123,3127,3130,3133,3136],{"className":3122},[58],[15,3124],{"className":3125,"style":3126},[62],"height:0.8304em;vertical-align:-0.136em;",[15,3128,2478],{"className":3129,"style":2696},[67,68],[15,3131],{"className":3132,"style":199},[77],[15,3134,3111],{"className":3135},[203],[15,3137],{"className":3138,"style":199},[77],[15,3140,3142,3146],{"className":3141},[58],[15,3143],{"className":3144,"style":3145},[62],"height:0.6444em;",[15,3147,1425],{"className":3148},[67],"，则称为一个",[305,3151,3152],{},"环（cycle）",[1314,3154,3156],{"title":3155},"定义 1.3（有向无环图，DAG）",[11,3157,3158,3159,3187,3188,3216],{},"若图 ",[15,3160,3162,3175],{"className":3161,"translate":19},[18],[15,3163,3165],{"className":3164},[23],[25,3166,3167],{"xmlns":27},[29,3168,3169,3173],{},[32,3170,3171],{},[35,3172,1334],{},[47,3174,1334],{"encoding":49},[15,3176,3178],{"className":3177,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,3179,3181,3184],{"className":3180},[58],[15,3182],{"className":3183,"style":299},[62],[15,3185,1334],{"className":3186},[67,68]," 中不存在任何环，则称 ",[15,3189,3191,3204],{"className":3190,"translate":19},[18],[15,3192,3194],{"className":3193},[23],[25,3195,3196],{"xmlns":27},[29,3197,3198,3202],{},[32,3199,3200],{},[35,3201,1334],{},[47,3203,1334],{"encoding":49},[15,3205,3207],{"className":3206,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,3208,3210,3213],{"className":3209},[58],[15,3211],{"className":3212,"style":299},[62],[15,3214,1334],{"className":3215},[67,68]," 为有向无环图。",[1314,3218,3220],{"title":3219},"定义 1.4（因果图）",[11,3221,3222,3223,3297,3298,811,3453,3522,3523,2102,3592,3595,3596,3665,3666,3735],{},"一个因果图是一个 DAG ",[15,3224,3226,3252],{"className":3225,"translate":19},[18],[15,3227,3229],{"className":3228},[23],[25,3230,3231],{"xmlns":27},[29,3232,3233,3249],{},[32,3234,3235,3237,3239,3241,3243,3245,3247],{},[35,3236,1334],{},[39,3238,602],{},[39,3240,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,3242,1341],{},[39,3244,42],{"separator":41},[35,3246,1346],{},[39,3248,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,3250,3251],{"encoding":49},"G=(V,E)",[15,3253,3255,3273],{"className":3254,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,3256,3258,3261,3264,3267,3270],{"className":3257},[58],[15,3259],{"className":3260,"style":299},[62],[15,3262,1334],{"className":3263},[67,68],[15,3265],{"className":3266,"style":199},[77],[15,3268,602],{"className":3269},[203],[15,3271],{"className":3272,"style":199},[77],[15,3274,3276,3279,3282,3285,3288,3291,3294],{"className":3275},[58],[15,3277],{"className":3278,"style":124},[62],[15,3280,102],{"className":3281},[132],[15,3283,1341],{"className":3284,"style":82},[67,68],[15,3286,42],{"className":3287},[73],[15,3289],{"className":3290,"style":78},[77],[15,3292,1346],{"className":3293,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,3295,111],{"className":3296},[148],"，附加如下语义解释：对任意 ",[15,3299,3301,3334],{"className":3300,"translate":19},[18],[15,3302,3304],{"className":3303},[23],[25,3305,3306],{"xmlns":27},[29,3307,3308,3332],{},[32,3309,3310,3312,3318,3320,3326,3328,3330],{},[39,3311,102],{"stretchy":101},[863,3313,3314,3316],{},[35,3315,1341],{},[35,3317,1680],{},[39,3319,42],{"separator":41},[863,3321,3322,3324],{},[35,3323,1341],{},[35,3325,1689],{},[39,3327,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,3329,1694],{},[35,3331,1346],{},[47,3333,1699],{"encoding":49},[15,3335,3337,3444],{"className":3336,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,3338,3340,3343,3346,3386,3389,3392,3432,3435,3438,3441],{"className":3339},[58],[15,3341],{"className":3342,"style":1709},[62],[15,3344,102],{"className":3345},[132],[15,3347,3349,3352],{"className":3348},[67],[15,3350,1341],{"className":3351,"style":82},[67,68],[15,3353,3355],{"className":3354},[918],[15,3356,3358,3378],{"className":3357},[922,923],[15,3359,3361,3375],{"className":3360},[927],[15,3362,3364],{"className":3363,"style":1731},[931],[15,3365,3366,3369],{"style":1497},[15,3367],{"className":3368,"style":940},[939],[15,3370,3372],{"className":3371},[944,945,946,947],[15,3373,1680],{"className":3374},[67,68,947],[15,3376,955],{"className":3377},[954],[15,3379,3381],{"className":3380},[927],[15,3382,3384],{"className":3383,"style":962},[931],[15,3385],{},[15,3387,42],{"className":3388},[73],[15,3390],{"className":3391,"style":78},[77],[15,3393,3395,3398],{"className":3394},[67],[15,3396,1341],{"className":3397,"style":82},[67,68],[15,3399,3401],{"className":3400},[918],[15,3402,3404,3424],{"className":3403},[922,923],[15,3405,3407,3421],{"className":3406},[927],[15,3408,3410],{"className":3409,"style":1731},[931],[15,3411,3412,3415],{"style":1497},[15,3413],{"className":3414,"style":940},[939],[15,3416,3418],{"className":3417},[944,945,946,947],[15,3419,1689],{"className":3420,"style":1789},[67,68,947],[15,3422,955],{"className":3423},[954],[15,3425,3427],{"className":3426},[927],[15,3428,3430],{"className":3429,"style":1799},[931],[15,3431],{},[15,3433,111],{"className":3434},[148],[15,3436],{"className":3437,"style":199},[77],[15,3439,1694],{"className":3440},[203],[15,3442],{"className":3443,"style":199},[77],[15,3445,3447,3450],{"className":3446},[58],[15,3448],{"className":3449,"style":299},[62],[15,3451,1346],{"className":3452,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,3454,3456,3473],{"className":3455,"translate":19},[18],[15,3457,3459],{"className":3458},[23],[25,3460,3461],{"xmlns":27},[29,3462,3463,3471],{},[32,3464,3465],{},[863,3466,3467,3469],{},[35,3468,1341],{},[35,3470,1680],{},[47,3472,1981],{"encoding":49},[15,3474,3476],{"className":3475,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,3477,3479,3482],{"className":3478},[58],[15,3480],{"className":3481,"style":1863},[62],[15,3483,3485,3488],{"className":3484},[67],[15,3486,1341],{"className":3487,"style":82},[67,68],[15,3489,3491],{"className":3490},[918],[15,3492,3494,3514],{"className":3493},[922,923],[15,3495,3497,3511],{"className":3496},[927],[15,3498,3500],{"className":3499,"style":1731},[931],[15,3501,3502,3505],{"style":1497},[15,3503],{"className":3504,"style":940},[939],[15,3506,3508],{"className":3507},[944,945,946,947],[15,3509,1680],{"className":3510},[67,68,947],[15,3512,955],{"className":3513},[954],[15,3515,3517],{"className":3516},[927],[15,3518,3520],{"className":3519,"style":962},[931],[15,3521],{}," 被假设为 ",[15,3524,3526,3543],{"className":3525,"translate":19},[18],[15,3527,3529],{"className":3528},[23],[25,3530,3531],{"xmlns":27},[29,3532,3533,3541],{},[32,3534,3535],{},[863,3536,3537,3539],{},[35,3538,1341],{},[35,3540,1689],{},[47,3542,2052],{"encoding":49},[15,3544,3546],{"className":3545,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,3547,3549,3552],{"className":3548},[58],[15,3550],{"className":3551,"style":1919},[62],[15,3553,3555,3558],{"className":3554},[67],[15,3556,1341],{"className":3557,"style":82},[67,68],[15,3559,3561],{"className":3560},[918],[15,3562,3564,3584],{"className":3563},[922,923],[15,3565,3567,3581],{"className":3566},[927],[15,3568,3570],{"className":3569,"style":1731},[931],[15,3571,3572,3575],{"style":1497},[15,3573],{"className":3574,"style":940},[939],[15,3576,3578],{"className":3577},[944,945,946,947],[15,3579,1689],{"className":3580,"style":1789},[67,68,947],[15,3582,955],{"className":3583},[954],[15,3585,3587],{"className":3586},[927],[15,3588,3590],{"className":3589,"style":1799},[931],[15,3591],{},[305,3593,3594],{},"直接原因（direct cause）","——即存在至少一种对其余变量的取值组合，使得改变 ",[15,3597,3599,3616],{"className":3598,"translate":19},[18],[15,3600,3602],{"className":3601},[23],[25,3603,3604],{"xmlns":27},[29,3605,3606,3614],{},[32,3607,3608],{},[863,3609,3610,3612],{},[35,3611,1341],{},[35,3613,1680],{},[47,3615,1981],{"encoding":49},[15,3617,3619],{"className":3618,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,3620,3622,3625],{"className":3621},[58],[15,3623],{"className":3624,"style":1863},[62],[15,3626,3628,3631],{"className":3627},[67],[15,3629,1341],{"className":3630,"style":82},[67,68],[15,3632,3634],{"className":3633},[918],[15,3635,3637,3657],{"className":3636},[922,923],[15,3638,3640,3654],{"className":3639},[927],[15,3641,3643],{"className":3642,"style":1731},[931],[15,3644,3645,3648],{"style":1497},[15,3646],{"className":3647,"style":940},[939],[15,3649,3651],{"className":3650},[944,945,946,947],[15,3652,1680],{"className":3653},[67,68,947],[15,3655,955],{"className":3656},[954],[15,3658,3660],{"className":3659},[927],[15,3661,3663],{"className":3662,"style":962},[931],[15,3664],{}," 会改变 ",[15,3667,3669,3686],{"className":3668,"translate":19},[18],[15,3670,3672],{"className":3671},[23],[25,3673,3674],{"xmlns":27},[29,3675,3676,3684],{},[32,3677,3678],{},[863,3679,3680,3682],{},[35,3681,1341],{},[35,3683,1689],{},[47,3685,2052],{"encoding":49},[15,3687,3689],{"className":3688,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,3690,3692,3695],{"className":3691},[58],[15,3693],{"className":3694,"style":1919},[62],[15,3696,3698,3701],{"className":3697},[67],[15,3699,1341],{"className":3700,"style":82},[67,68],[15,3702,3704],{"className":3703},[918],[15,3705,3707,3727],{"className":3706},[922,923],[15,3708,3710,3724],{"className":3709},[927],[15,3711,3713],{"className":3712,"style":1731},[931],[15,3714,3715,3718],{"style":1497},[15,3716],{"className":3717,"style":940},[939],[15,3719,3721],{"className":3720},[944,945,946,947],[15,3722,1689],{"className":3723,"style":1789},[67,68,947],[15,3725,955],{"className":3726},[954],[15,3728,3730],{"className":3729},[927],[15,3731,3733],{"className":3732,"style":1799},[931],[15,3734],{}," 的取值或分布。",[11,3737,3738,3739,3742],{},"需要强调：因果图的每一条边都是一个",[305,3740,3741],{},"不可从数据中验证的结构性假设","（除非借助特定的因果发现算法与额外假设），它来自领域知识、实验设计或时间先后关系等外部信息。这一点是因果图区别于「从数据拟合出的图模型」的本质特征。",[1314,3744,3746,4107],{"title":3745},"例 1.1",[11,3747,3748,3749,3858,3859,3887,3888,4102,4103,4106],{},"设变量集合 ",[15,3750,3752,3791],{"className":3751,"translate":19},[18],[15,3753,3755],{"className":3754},[23],[25,3756,3757],{"xmlns":27},[29,3758,3759,3788],{},[32,3760,3761,3763,3765,3767,3770,3772,3775,3777,3779,3781,3783,3786],{},[35,3762,1341],{},[39,3764,602],{},[39,3766,1417],{"stretchy":101},[35,3768,3769],{},"S",[39,3771,42],{"separator":41},[35,3773,3774],{},"R",[39,3776,42],{"separator":41},[35,3778,3769],{},[35,3780,11],{},[39,3782,42],{"separator":41},[35,3784,3785],{},"W",[39,3787,1442],{"stretchy":101},[47,3789,3790],{"encoding":49},"V = \\{S, R, Sp, W\\}",[15,3792,3794,3812],{"className":3793,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,3795,3797,3800,3803,3806,3809],{"className":3796},[58],[15,3798],{"className":3799,"style":299},[62],[15,3801,1341],{"className":3802,"style":82},[67,68],[15,3804],{"className":3805,"style":199},[77],[15,3807,602],{"className":3808},[203],[15,3810],{"className":3811,"style":199},[77],[15,3813,3815,3818,3821,3824,3827,3830,3834,3837,3840,3843,3846,3849,3852,3855],{"className":3814},[58],[15,3816],{"className":3817,"style":124},[62],[15,3819,1417],{"className":3820},[132],[15,3822,3769],{"className":3823,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,3825,42],{"className":3826},[73],[15,3828],{"className":3829,"style":78},[77],[15,3831,3774],{"className":3832,"style":3833},[67,68],"margin-right:0.0077em;",[15,3835,42],{"className":3836},[73],[15,3838],{"className":3839,"style":78},[77],[15,3841,3769],{"className":3842,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,3844,11],{"className":3845},[67,68],[15,3847,42],{"className":3848},[73],[15,3850],{"className":3851,"style":78},[77],[15,3853,3785],{"className":3854,"style":128},[67,68],[15,3856,1442],{"className":3857},[148],"，分别代表季节（Season）、下雨（Rain）、洒水器开启（Sprinkler）、草坪潮湿（WetGrass）。因果图 ",[15,3860,3862,3875],{"className":3861,"translate":19},[18],[15,3863,3865],{"className":3864},[23],[25,3866,3867],{"xmlns":27},[29,3868,3869,3873],{},[32,3870,3871],{},[35,3872,1334],{},[47,3874,1334],{"encoding":49},[15,3876,3878],{"className":3877,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,3879,3881,3884],{"className":3880},[58],[15,3882],{"className":3883,"style":299},[62],[15,3885,1334],{"className":3886},[67,68]," 定义为：\n",[15,3889,3891,3952],{"className":3890,"translate":19},[18],[15,3892,3894],{"className":3893},[23],[25,3895,3896],{"xmlns":27},[29,3897,3898,3949],{},[32,3899,3900,3902,3904,3906,3908,3910,3912,3914,3917,3919,3921,3923,3925,3927,3929,3931,3933,3935,3937,3939,3941,3943,3945,3947],{},[35,3901,1346],{},[39,3903,602],{},[39,3905,1417],{"stretchy":101},[35,3907,3769],{},[39,3909,1844],{},[35,3911,3774],{},[39,3913,42],{"separator":41},[238,3915,3916],{}," ",[35,3918,3769],{},[39,3920,1844],{},[35,3922,3769],{},[35,3924,11],{},[39,3926,42],{"separator":41},[238,3928,3916],{},[35,3930,3774],{},[39,3932,1844],{},[35,3934,3785],{},[39,3936,42],{"separator":41},[238,3938,3916],{},[35,3940,3769],{},[35,3942,11],{},[39,3944,1844],{},[35,3946,3785],{},[39,3948,1442],{"stretchy":101},[47,3950,3951],{"encoding":49},"E = \\{S \\to R,\\ S \\to Sp,\\ R \\to W,\\ Sp \\to W\\}",[15,3953,3955,3973,3994,4024,4057,4090],{"className":3954,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,3956,3958,3961,3964,3967,3970],{"className":3957},[58],[15,3959],{"className":3960,"style":299},[62],[15,3962,1346],{"className":3963,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,3965],{"className":3966,"style":199},[77],[15,3968,602],{"className":3969},[203],[15,3971],{"className":3972,"style":199},[77],[15,3974,3976,3979,3982,3985,3988,3991],{"className":3975},[58],[15,3977],{"className":3978,"style":124},[62],[15,3980,1417],{"className":3981},[132],[15,3983,3769],{"className":3984,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,3986],{"className":3987,"style":199},[77],[15,3989,1844],{"className":3990},[203],[15,3992],{"className":3993,"style":199},[77],[15,3995,3997,4000,4003,4006,4009,4012,4015,4018,4021],{"className":3996},[58],[15,3998],{"className":3999,"style":63},[62],[15,4001,3774],{"className":4002,"style":3833},[67,68],[15,4004,42],{"className":4005},[73],[15,4007,3916],{"className":4008},[77],[15,4010],{"className":4011,"style":78},[77],[15,4013,3769],{"className":4014,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,4016],{"className":4017,"style":199},[77],[15,4019,1844],{"className":4020},[203],[15,4022],{"className":4023,"style":199},[77],[15,4025,4027,4030,4033,4036,4039,4042,4045,4048,4051,4054],{"className":4026},[58],[15,4028],{"className":4029,"style":63},[62],[15,4031,3769],{"className":4032,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,4034,11],{"className":4035},[67,68],[15,4037,42],{"className":4038},[73],[15,4040,3916],{"className":4041},[77],[15,4043],{"className":4044,"style":78},[77],[15,4046,3774],{"className":4047,"style":3833},[67,68],[15,4049],{"className":4050,"style":199},[77],[15,4052,1844],{"className":4053},[203],[15,4055],{"className":4056,"style":199},[77],[15,4058,4060,4063,4066,4069,4072,4075,4078,4081,4084,4087],{"className":4059},[58],[15,4061],{"className":4062,"style":63},[62],[15,4064,3785],{"className":4065,"style":128},[67,68],[15,4067,42],{"className":4068},[73],[15,4070,3916],{"className":4071},[77],[15,4073],{"className":4074,"style":78},[77],[15,4076,3769],{"className":4077,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,4079,11],{"className":4080},[67,68],[15,4082],{"className":4083,"style":199},[77],[15,4085,1844],{"className":4086},[203],[15,4088],{"className":4089,"style":199},[77],[15,4091,4093,4096,4099],{"className":4092},[58],[15,4094],{"className":4095,"style":124},[62],[15,4097,3785],{"className":4098,"style":128},[67,68],[15,4100,1442],{"className":4101},[148],"\n此图断言：季节直接影响降雨与洒水器的开启概率；降雨与洒水器开启都直接影响草坪是否潮湿；而季节对草坪潮湿的影响完全通过降雨与洒水器这两条中介路径传递，不存在季节直接作用于草坪的边。这后一点——",[305,4104,4105],{},"某条边不存在","——与图中已画出的边同样重要，是因果图的核心信息量所在。整张图的形状如下：",[4108,4109,4110],"div",{},[4111,4112],"img",{"height":4113,"width":4114,"style":4115,"data-d2-theme":4116,"alt":4117,"src":4118},142,322,"max-width:100%;height:auto","default","","data:image\u002Fsvg+xml;base64,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",[11,4120,4121,4122,4150,4151,4179],{},"其中季节 ",[15,4123,4125,4138],{"className":4124,"translate":19},[18],[15,4126,4128],{"className":4127},[23],[25,4129,4130],{"xmlns":27},[29,4131,4132,4136],{},[32,4133,4134],{},[35,4135,3769],{},[47,4137,3769],{"encoding":49},[15,4139,4141],{"className":4140,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,4142,4144,4147],{"className":4143},[58],[15,4145],{"className":4146,"style":299},[62],[15,4148,3769],{"className":4149,"style":1394},[67,68]," 是整套机制的源头，草坪潮湿 ",[15,4152,4154,4167],{"className":4153,"translate":19},[18],[15,4155,4157],{"className":4156},[23],[25,4158,4159],{"xmlns":27},[29,4160,4161,4165],{},[32,4162,4163],{},[35,4164,3785],{},[47,4166,3785],{"encoding":49},[15,4168,4170],{"className":4169,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,4171,4173,4176],{"className":4172},[58],[15,4174],{"className":4175,"style":299},[62],[15,4177,3785],{"className":4178,"style":128},[67,68]," 是两条中介路径的汇合点。",[1309,4181,4183],{"id":4182},"_12-三种基本连接结构及其统计含义","1.2 三种基本连接结构及其统计含义",[11,4185,4186,4187,811,4244,4272,4273,4314],{},"任意路径都可以分解为若干长度为 2 的子路径（即三节点结构），因此理解全图的依赖关系，可以归约为理解三种基本三节点结构。设三个节点 ",[15,4188,4190,4213],{"className":4189,"translate":19},[18],[15,4191,4193],{"className":4192},[23],[25,4194,4195],{"xmlns":27},[29,4196,4197,4210],{},[32,4198,4199,4201,4203,4206,4208],{},[35,4200,37],{},[39,4202,42],{"separator":41},[35,4204,4205],{},"Z",[39,4207,42],{"separator":41},[35,4209,45],{},[47,4211,4212],{"encoding":49},"X, Z, Y",[15,4214,4216],{"className":4215,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,4217,4219,4222,4225,4228,4231,4235,4238,4241],{"className":4218},[58],[15,4220],{"className":4221,"style":63},[62],[15,4223,37],{"className":4224,"style":69},[67,68],[15,4226,42],{"className":4227},[73],[15,4229],{"className":4230,"style":78},[77],[15,4232,4205],{"className":4233,"style":4234},[67,68],"margin-right:0.0715em;",[15,4236,42],{"className":4237},[73],[15,4239],{"className":4240,"style":78},[77],[15,4242,45],{"className":4243,"style":82},[67,68],[15,4245,4247,4260],{"className":4246,"translate":19},[18],[15,4248,4250],{"className":4249},[23],[25,4251,4252],{"xmlns":27},[29,4253,4254,4258],{},[32,4255,4256],{},[35,4257,4205],{},[47,4259,4205],{"encoding":49},[15,4261,4263],{"className":4262,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,4264,4266,4269],{"className":4265},[58],[15,4267],{"className":4268,"style":299},[62],[15,4270,4205],{"className":4271,"style":4234},[67,68]," 位于 ",[15,4274,4276,4293],{"className":4275,"translate":19},[18],[15,4277,4279],{"className":4278},[23],[25,4280,4281],{"xmlns":27},[29,4282,4283,4291],{},[32,4284,4285,4287,4289],{},[35,4286,37],{},[39,4288,42],{"separator":41},[35,4290,45],{},[47,4292,50],{"encoding":49},[15,4294,4296],{"className":4295,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,4297,4299,4302,4305,4308,4311],{"className":4298},[58],[15,4300],{"className":4301,"style":63},[62],[15,4303,37],{"className":4304,"style":69},[67,68],[15,4306,42],{"className":4307},[73],[15,4309],{"className":4310,"style":78},[77],[15,4312,45],{"className":4313,"style":82},[67,68]," 之间的路径上。三种结构图示如下：",[4108,4316,4317],{},[4111,4318],{"height":4319,"width":4320,"style":4115,"data-d2-theme":4116,"alt":4117,"src":4321},42,300,"data:image\u002Fsvg+xml;base64,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",[11,4323,4324,4327,4328],{},[305,4325,4326],{},"结构一：链（Chain）"," ",[15,4329,4331,4353],{"className":4330,"translate":19},[18],[15,4332,4334],{"className":4333},[23],[25,4335,4336],{"xmlns":27},[29,4337,4338,4350],{},[32,4339,4340,4342,4344,4346,4348],{},[35,4341,37],{},[39,4343,1844],{},[35,4345,4205],{},[39,4347,1844],{},[35,4349,45],{},[47,4351,4352],{"encoding":49},"X \\to Z \\to Y",[15,4354,4356,4374,4392],{"className":4355,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,4357,4359,4362,4365,4368,4371],{"className":4358},[58],[15,4360],{"className":4361,"style":299},[62],[15,4363,37],{"className":4364,"style":69},[67,68],[15,4366],{"className":4367,"style":199},[77],[15,4369,1844],{"className":4370},[203],[15,4372],{"className":4373,"style":199},[77],[15,4375,4377,4380,4383,4386,4389],{"className":4376},[58],[15,4378],{"className":4379,"style":299},[62],[15,4381,4205],{"className":4382,"style":4234},[67,68],[15,4384],{"className":4385,"style":199},[77],[15,4387,1844],{"className":4388},[203],[15,4390],{"className":4391,"style":199},[77],[15,4393,4395,4398],{"className":4394},[58],[15,4396],{"className":4397,"style":299},[62],[15,4399,45],{"className":4400,"style":82},[67,68],[1314,4402,4404],{"title":4403},"命题 1.1",[11,4405,4406,4407,4523,4524,4623,4624,4652],{},"在链式结构下，若结构方程满足一般位置条件（无退化取消），则 ",[15,4408,4410,4437],{"className":4409,"translate":19},[18],[15,4411,4413],{"className":4412},[23],[25,4414,4415],{"xmlns":27},[29,4416,4417,4434],{},[32,4418,4419,4421,4424,4426,4428,4430,4432],{},[35,4420,37],{},[39,4422,4423],{},"⊥̸",[238,4425,240],{},[238,4427,240],{},[238,4429,240],{},[39,4431,236],{},[35,4433,45],{},[47,4435,4436],{"encoding":49},"X \\not\\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp Y",[15,4438,4440,4502,4514],{"className":4439,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,4441,4443,4447,4450,4453,4486,4490,4493,4496,4499],{"className":4442},[58],[15,4444],{"className":4445,"style":4446},[62],"height:0.8889em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[15,4448,37],{"className":4449,"style":69},[67,68],[15,4451],{"className":4452,"style":199},[77],[15,4454,4456],{"className":4455},[203],[15,4457,4460],{"className":4458},[67,4459],"vbox",[15,4461,4464],{"className":4462},[4463],"thinbox",[15,4465,4468,4471,4482],{"className":4466},[4467],"rlap",[15,4469],{"className":4470,"style":4446},[62],[15,4472,4475],{"className":4473},[4474],"inner",[15,4476,4478],{"className":4477},[67],[15,4479,4481],{"className":4480},[203],"",[15,4483],{"className":4484},[4485],"fix",[15,4487],{"className":4488},[77,4489],"nobreak",[15,4491,236],{"className":4492},[203],[15,4494],{"className":4495,"style":274},[77],[15,4497],{"className":4498,"style":274},[77],[15,4500],{"className":4501,"style":274},[77],[15,4503,4505,4508,4511],{"className":4504},[58],[15,4506],{"className":4507,"style":261},[62],[15,4509,236],{"className":4510},[203],[15,4512],{"className":4513,"style":199},[77],[15,4515,4517,4520],{"className":4516},[58],[15,4518],{"className":4519,"style":299},[62],[15,4521,45],{"className":4522,"style":82},[67,68],"（边际不独立），但 ",[15,4525,4527,4557],{"className":4526,"translate":19},[18],[15,4528,4530],{"className":4529},[23],[25,4531,4532],{"xmlns":27},[29,4533,4534,4554],{},[32,4535,4536,4538,4540,4542,4544,4546,4548,4550,4552],{},[35,4537,37],{},[39,4539,236],{},[238,4541,240],{},[238,4543,240],{},[238,4545,240],{},[39,4547,236],{},[35,4549,45],{},[39,4551,170],{},[35,4553,4205],{},[47,4555,4556],{"encoding":49},"X \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp Y \\mid Z",[15,4558,4560,4584,4596,4614],{"className":4559,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,4561,4563,4566,4569,4572,4575,4578,4581],{"className":4562},[58],[15,4564],{"className":4565,"style":261},[62],[15,4567,37],{"className":4568,"style":69},[67,68],[15,4570],{"className":4571,"style":199},[77],[15,4573,236],{"className":4574},[203],[15,4576],{"className":4577,"style":274},[77],[15,4579],{"className":4580,"style":274},[77],[15,4582],{"className":4583,"style":274},[77],[15,4585,4587,4590,4593],{"className":4586},[58],[15,4588],{"className":4589,"style":261},[62],[15,4591,236],{"className":4592},[203],[15,4594],{"className":4595,"style":199},[77],[15,4597,4599,4602,4605,4608,4611],{"className":4598},[58],[15,4600],{"className":4601,"style":124},[62],[15,4603,45],{"className":4604,"style":82},[67,68],[15,4606],{"className":4607,"style":199},[77],[15,4609,170],{"className":4610},[203],[15,4612],{"className":4613,"style":199},[77],[15,4615,4617,4620],{"className":4616},[58],[15,4618],{"className":4619,"style":299},[62],[15,4621,4205],{"className":4622,"style":4234},[67,68],"（给定 ",[15,4625,4627,4640],{"className":4626,"translate":19},[18],[15,4628,4630],{"className":4629},[23],[25,4631,4632],{"xmlns":27},[29,4633,4634,4638],{},[32,4635,4636],{},[35,4637,4205],{},[47,4639,4205],{"encoding":49},[15,4641,4643],{"className":4642,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,4644,4646,4649],{"className":4645},[58],[15,4647],{"className":4648,"style":299},[62],[15,4650,4205],{"className":4651,"style":4234},[67,68]," 时条件独立）。",[11,4654,4655,505,4659,4687,4688,4716,4717,4745,4746,4774,4775,4803,4804,4832],{},[4656,4657,4658],"em",{},"直观证明",[15,4660,4662,4675],{"className":4661,"translate":19},[18],[15,4663,4665],{"className":4664},[23],[25,4666,4667],{"xmlns":27},[29,4668,4669,4673],{},[32,4670,4671],{},[35,4672,37],{},[47,4674,37],{"encoding":49},[15,4676,4678],{"className":4677,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,4679,4681,4684],{"className":4680},[58],[15,4682],{"className":4683,"style":299},[62],[15,4685,37],{"className":4686,"style":69},[67,68]," 对 ",[15,4689,4691,4704],{"className":4690,"translate":19},[18],[15,4692,4694],{"className":4693},[23],[25,4695,4696],{"xmlns":27},[29,4697,4698,4702],{},[32,4699,4700],{},[35,4701,45],{},[47,4703,45],{"encoding":49},[15,4705,4707],{"className":4706,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,4708,4710,4713],{"className":4709},[58],[15,4711],{"className":4712,"style":299},[62],[15,4714,45],{"className":4715,"style":82},[67,68]," 的全部影响必须经过 ",[15,4718,4720,4733],{"className":4719,"translate":19},[18],[15,4721,4723],{"className":4722},[23],[25,4724,4725],{"xmlns":27},[29,4726,4727,4731],{},[32,4728,4729],{},[35,4730,4205],{},[47,4732,4205],{"encoding":49},[15,4734,4736],{"className":4735,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,4737,4739,4742],{"className":4738},[58],[15,4740],{"className":4741,"style":299},[62],[15,4743,4205],{"className":4744,"style":4234},[67,68]," 传递。一旦 ",[15,4747,4749,4762],{"className":4748,"translate":19},[18],[15,4750,4752],{"className":4751},[23],[25,4753,4754],{"xmlns":27},[29,4755,4756,4760],{},[32,4757,4758],{},[35,4759,4205],{},[47,4761,4205],{"encoding":49},[15,4763,4765],{"className":4764,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,4766,4768,4771],{"className":4767},[58],[15,4769],{"className":4770,"style":299},[62],[15,4772,4205],{"className":4773,"style":4234},[67,68]," 的取值被固定，",[15,4776,4778,4791],{"className":4777,"translate":19},[18],[15,4779,4781],{"className":4780},[23],[25,4782,4783],{"xmlns":27},[29,4784,4785,4789],{},[32,4786,4787],{},[35,4788,37],{},[47,4790,37],{"encoding":49},[15,4792,4794],{"className":4793,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,4795,4797,4800],{"className":4796},[58],[15,4798],{"className":4799,"style":299},[62],[15,4801,37],{"className":4802,"style":69},[67,68]," 就丧失了改变 ",[15,4805,4807,4820],{"className":4806,"translate":19},[18],[15,4808,4810],{"className":4809},[23],[25,4811,4812],{"xmlns":27},[29,4813,4814,4818],{},[32,4815,4816],{},[35,4817,45],{},[47,4819,45],{"encoding":49},[15,4821,4823],{"className":4822,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,4824,4826,4829],{"className":4825},[58],[15,4827],{"className":4828,"style":299},[62],[15,4830,45],{"className":4831,"style":82},[67,68]," 分布的任何「渠道」，因此二者在此条件下不再携带彼此的信息。",[1314,4834,4836],{"title":4835},"例 1.2",[11,4837,4838],{},"吸烟（Smoking）→ 焦油沉积（Tar）→ 肺癌（Cancer）。边际地看，吸烟与肺癌高度相关；但若将研究对象限定为「焦油沉积水平完全相同的人群」，则在这一子群体内，是否吸烟与是否患癌不再相关——因为吸烟致癌的全部机制已经被「焦油沉积」这一中介变量所概括。",[11,4840,4841,4844,4845,4848],{},[305,4842,4843],{},"需要强调这里隐含的假设","：上述结论真正成立的前提，是「焦油沉积」与「肺癌」之间不存在未观测的共同原因。这一点值得仔细分辨——它并不是「在数据中按焦油分层」，而是在说「若外部把焦油水平固定住，吸烟对肺癌就不再有效应」。二者只有在特定假设下才一致：一旦焦油与肺癌之间存在未观测的共同原因，条件化焦油反而会在中介与结果之间引入新的对撞偏差（其机制正是下文结构三）。因此例 1.2 应被理解为一个",[305,4846,4847],{},"理想化的机制分解","，而非一条可以在真实流行病学数据上直接执行的结论——这也正是 3.4 节中介分析必须依赖更强假设的原因。",[4108,4850,4851],{},[4111,4852],{"height":4113,"width":4853,"style":4115,"data-d2-theme":4116,"alt":4117,"src":4854},182,"data:image\u002Fsvg+xml;base64,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",[11,4856,4857,4327,4860],{},[305,4858,4859],{},"结构二：叉（Fork），共同原因结构",[15,4861,4863,4886],{"className":4862,"translate":19},[18],[15,4864,4866],{"className":4865},[23],[25,4867,4868],{"xmlns":27},[29,4869,4870,4883],{},[32,4871,4872,4874,4877,4879,4881],{},[35,4873,37],{},[39,4875,4876],{},"←",[35,4878,4205],{},[39,4880,1844],{},[35,4882,45],{},[47,4884,4885],{"encoding":49},"X \\leftarrow Z \\to Y",[15,4887,4889,4907,4925],{"className":4888,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,4890,4892,4895,4898,4901,4904],{"className":4891},[58],[15,4893],{"className":4894,"style":299},[62],[15,4896,37],{"className":4897,"style":69},[67,68],[15,4899],{"className":4900,"style":199},[77],[15,4902,4876],{"className":4903},[203],[15,4905],{"className":4906,"style":199},[77],[15,4908,4910,4913,4916,4919,4922],{"className":4909},[58],[15,4911],{"className":4912,"style":299},[62],[15,4914,4205],{"className":4915,"style":4234},[67,68],[15,4917],{"className":4918,"style":199},[77],[15,4920,1844],{"className":4921},[203],[15,4923],{"className":4924,"style":199},[77],[15,4926,4928,4931],{"className":4927},[58],[15,4929],{"className":4930,"style":299},[62],[15,4932,45],{"className":4933,"style":82},[67,68],[1314,4935,4937],{"title":4936},"命题 1.2",[11,4938,4939,4940,4523,5046,2247],{},"在叉式结构下，",[15,4941,4943,4968],{"className":4942,"translate":19},[18],[15,4944,4946],{"className":4945},[23],[25,4947,4948],{"xmlns":27},[29,4949,4950,4966],{},[32,4951,4952,4954,4956,4958,4960,4962,4964],{},[35,4953,37],{},[39,4955,4423],{},[238,4957,240],{},[238,4959,240],{},[238,4961,240],{},[39,4963,236],{},[35,4965,45],{},[47,4967,4436],{"encoding":49},[15,4969,4971,5025,5037],{"className":4970,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,4972,4974,4977,4980,4983,5010,5013,5016,5019,5022],{"className":4973},[58],[15,4975],{"className":4976,"style":4446},[62],[15,4978,37],{"className":4979,"style":69},[67,68],[15,4981],{"className":4982,"style":199},[77],[15,4984,4986],{"className":4985},[203],[15,4987,4989],{"className":4988},[67,4459],[15,4990,4992],{"className":4991},[4463],[15,4993,4995,4998,5007],{"className":4994},[4467],[15,4996],{"className":4997,"style":4446},[62],[15,4999,5001],{"className":5000},[4474],[15,5002,5004],{"className":5003},[67],[15,5005,4481],{"className":5006},[203],[15,5008],{"className":5009},[4485],[15,5011],{"className":5012},[77,4489],[15,5014,236],{"className":5015},[203],[15,5017],{"className":5018,"style":274},[77],[15,5020],{"className":5021,"style":274},[77],[15,5023],{"className":5024,"style":274},[77],[15,5026,5028,5031,5034],{"className":5027},[58],[15,5029],{"className":5030,"style":261},[62],[15,5032,236],{"className":5033},[203],[15,5035],{"className":5036,"style":199},[77],[15,5038,5040,5043],{"className":5039},[58],[15,5041],{"className":5042,"style":299},[62],[15,5044,45],{"className":5045,"style":82},[67,68],[15,5047,5049,5078],{"className":5048,"translate":19},[18],[15,5050,5052],{"className":5051},[23],[25,5053,5054],{"xmlns":27},[29,5055,5056,5076],{},[32,5057,5058,5060,5062,5064,5066,5068,5070,5072,5074],{},[35,5059,37],{},[39,5061,236],{},[238,5063,240],{},[238,5065,240],{},[238,5067,240],{},[39,5069,236],{},[35,5071,45],{},[39,5073,170],{},[35,5075,4205],{},[47,5077,4556],{"encoding":49},[15,5079,5081,5105,5117,5135],{"className":5080,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,5082,5084,5087,5090,5093,5096,5099,5102],{"className":5083},[58],[15,5085],{"className":5086,"style":261},[62],[15,5088,37],{"className":5089,"style":69},[67,68],[15,5091],{"className":5092,"style":199},[77],[15,5094,236],{"className":5095},[203],[15,5097],{"className":5098,"style":274},[77],[15,5100],{"className":5101,"style":274},[77],[15,5103],{"className":5104,"style":274},[77],[15,5106,5108,5111,5114],{"className":5107},[58],[15,5109],{"className":5110,"style":261},[62],[15,5112,236],{"className":5113},[203],[15,5115],{"className":5116,"style":199},[77],[15,5118,5120,5123,5126,5129,5132],{"className":5119},[58],[15,5121],{"className":5122,"style":124},[62],[15,5124,45],{"className":5125,"style":82},[67,68],[15,5127],{"className":5128,"style":199},[77],[15,5130,170],{"className":5131},[203],[15,5133],{"className":5134,"style":199},[77],[15,5136,5138,5141],{"className":5137},[58],[15,5139],{"className":5140,"style":299},[62],[15,5142,4205],{"className":5143,"style":4234},[67,68],[1314,5145,5147],{"title":5146},"例 1.3",[11,5148,5149,5150,5187,5188,5225,5226,5263,5264,811,5267,5295,5296,2247],{},"气温（Temperature）→ 冰淇淋销量（IceCream），气温 → 溺水人数（Drowning）。",[15,5151,5153,5169],{"className":5152,"translate":19},[18],[15,5154,5156],{"className":5155},[23],[25,5157,5158],{"xmlns":27},[29,5159,5160,5166],{},[32,5161,5162,5164],{},[35,5163,37],{},[39,5165,602],{},[47,5167,5168],{"encoding":49},"X=",[15,5170,5172],{"className":5171,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,5173,5175,5178,5181,5184],{"className":5174},[58],[15,5176],{"className":5177,"style":299},[62],[15,5179,37],{"className":5180,"style":69},[67,68],[15,5182],{"className":5183,"style":199},[77],[15,5185,602],{"className":5186},[203]," 冰淇淋销量，",[15,5189,5191,5207],{"className":5190,"translate":19},[18],[15,5192,5194],{"className":5193},[23],[25,5195,5196],{"xmlns":27},[29,5197,5198,5204],{},[32,5199,5200,5202],{},[35,5201,45],{},[39,5203,602],{},[47,5205,5206],{"encoding":49},"Y=",[15,5208,5210],{"className":5209,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,5211,5213,5216,5219,5222],{"className":5212},[58],[15,5214],{"className":5215,"style":299},[62],[15,5217,45],{"className":5218,"style":82},[67,68],[15,5220],{"className":5221,"style":199},[77],[15,5223,602],{"className":5224},[203]," 溺水人数，二者在夏季同步上升，边际相关系数显著为正；但若将数据按气温分层（即条件化 ",[15,5227,5229,5245],{"className":5228,"translate":19},[18],[15,5230,5232],{"className":5231},[23],[25,5233,5234],{"xmlns":27},[29,5235,5236,5242],{},[32,5237,5238,5240],{},[35,5239,4205],{},[39,5241,602],{},[47,5243,5244],{"encoding":49},"Z=",[15,5246,5248],{"className":5247,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,5249,5251,5254,5257,5260],{"className":5250},[58],[15,5252],{"className":5253,"style":299},[62],[15,5255,4205],{"className":5256,"style":4234},[67,68],[15,5258],{"className":5259,"style":199},[77],[15,5261,602],{"className":5262},[203],"气温），在每一层内部冰淇淋销量与溺水人数不再相关。这类由共同原因导致的边际关联，称为",[305,5265,5266],{},"虚假关联（spurious association）",[15,5268,5270,5283],{"className":5269,"translate":19},[18],[15,5271,5273],{"className":5272},[23],[25,5274,5275],{"xmlns":27},[29,5276,5277,5281],{},[32,5278,5279],{},[35,5280,4205],{},[47,5282,4205],{"encoding":49},[15,5284,5286],{"className":5285,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,5287,5289,5292],{"className":5288},[58],[15,5290],{"className":5291,"style":299},[62],[15,5293,4205],{"className":5294,"style":4234},[67,68]," 称为",[305,5297,5298],{},"混杂因子（confounder）",[4108,5300,5301],{},[4111,5302],{"height":4113,"width":4853,"style":4115,"data-d2-theme":4116,"alt":4117,"src":5303},"data:image\u002Fsvg+xml;base64,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",[11,5305,5306,4327,5309],{},[305,5307,5308],{},"结构三：对撞（Collider）",[15,5310,5312,5334],{"className":5311,"translate":19},[18],[15,5313,5315],{"className":5314},[23],[25,5316,5317],{"xmlns":27},[29,5318,5319,5331],{},[32,5320,5321,5323,5325,5327,5329],{},[35,5322,37],{},[39,5324,1844],{},[35,5326,4205],{},[39,5328,4876],{},[35,5330,45],{},[47,5332,5333],{"encoding":49},"X \\to Z \\leftarrow Y",[15,5335,5337,5355,5373],{"className":5336,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,5338,5340,5343,5346,5349,5352],{"className":5339},[58],[15,5341],{"className":5342,"style":299},[62],[15,5344,37],{"className":5345,"style":69},[67,68],[15,5347],{"className":5348,"style":199},[77],[15,5350,1844],{"className":5351},[203],[15,5353],{"className":5354,"style":199},[77],[15,5356,5358,5361,5364,5367,5370],{"className":5357},[58],[15,5359],{"className":5360,"style":299},[62],[15,5362,4205],{"className":5363,"style":4234},[67,68],[15,5365],{"className":5366,"style":199},[77],[15,5368,4876],{"className":5369},[203],[15,5371],{"className":5372,"style":199},[77],[15,5374,5376,5379],{"className":5375},[58],[15,5377],{"className":5378,"style":299},[62],[15,5380,45],{"className":5381,"style":82},[67,68],[1314,5383,5385],{"title":5384},"命题 1.3（对撞偏差，Collider Bias）",[11,5386,5387,5388,5429,5430,5506,5507,4623,5636,5664,5665,5693],{},"在对撞结构下，若 ",[15,5389,5391,5408],{"className":5390,"translate":19},[18],[15,5392,5394],{"className":5393},[23],[25,5395,5396],{"xmlns":27},[29,5397,5398,5406],{},[32,5399,5400,5402,5404],{},[35,5401,37],{},[39,5403,42],{"separator":41},[35,5405,45],{},[47,5407,50],{"encoding":49},[15,5409,5411],{"className":5410,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,5412,5414,5417,5420,5423,5426],{"className":5413},[58],[15,5415],{"className":5416,"style":63},[62],[15,5418,37],{"className":5419,"style":69},[67,68],[15,5421,42],{"className":5422},[73],[15,5424],{"className":5425,"style":78},[77],[15,5427,45],{"className":5428,"style":82},[67,68]," 无其他连接路径，则 ",[15,5431,5433,5458],{"className":5432,"translate":19},[18],[15,5434,5436],{"className":5435},[23],[25,5437,5438],{"xmlns":27},[29,5439,5440,5456],{},[32,5441,5442,5444,5446,5448,5450,5452,5454],{},[35,5443,37],{},[39,5445,236],{},[238,5447,240],{},[238,5449,240],{},[238,5451,240],{},[39,5453,236],{},[35,5455,45],{},[47,5457,251],{"encoding":49},[15,5459,5461,5485,5497],{"className":5460,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,5462,5464,5467,5470,5473,5476,5479,5482],{"className":5463},[58],[15,5465],{"className":5466,"style":261},[62],[15,5468,37],{"className":5469,"style":69},[67,68],[15,5471],{"className":5472,"style":199},[77],[15,5474,236],{"className":5475},[203],[15,5477],{"className":5478,"style":274},[77],[15,5480],{"className":5481,"style":274},[77],[15,5483],{"className":5484,"style":274},[77],[15,5486,5488,5491,5494],{"className":5487},[58],[15,5489],{"className":5490,"style":261},[62],[15,5492,236],{"className":5493},[203],[15,5495],{"className":5496,"style":199},[77],[15,5498,5500,5503],{"className":5499},[58],[15,5501],{"className":5502,"style":299},[62],[15,5504,45],{"className":5505,"style":82},[67,68],"（边际独立）；但 ",[15,5508,5510,5540],{"className":5509,"translate":19},[18],[15,5511,5513],{"className":5512},[23],[25,5514,5515],{"xmlns":27},[29,5516,5517,5537],{},[32,5518,5519,5521,5523,5525,5527,5529,5531,5533,5535],{},[35,5520,37],{},[39,5522,4423],{},[238,5524,240],{},[238,5526,240],{},[238,5528,240],{},[39,5530,236],{},[35,5532,45],{},[39,5534,170],{},[35,5536,4205],{},[47,5538,5539],{"encoding":49},"X \\not\\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp Y \\mid Z",[15,5541,5543,5597,5609,5627],{"className":5542,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,5544,5546,5549,5552,5555,5582,5585,5588,5591,5594],{"className":5545},[58],[15,5547],{"className":5548,"style":4446},[62],[15,5550,37],{"className":5551,"style":69},[67,68],[15,5553],{"className":5554,"style":199},[77],[15,5556,5558],{"className":5557},[203],[15,5559,5561],{"className":5560},[67,4459],[15,5562,5564],{"className":5563},[4463],[15,5565,5567,5570,5579],{"className":5566},[4467],[15,5568],{"className":5569,"style":4446},[62],[15,5571,5573],{"className":5572},[4474],[15,5574,5576],{"className":5575},[67],[15,5577,4481],{"className":5578},[203],[15,5580],{"className":5581},[4485],[15,5583],{"className":5584},[77,4489],[15,5586,236],{"className":5587},[203],[15,5589],{"className":5590,"style":274},[77],[15,5592],{"className":5593,"style":274},[77],[15,5595],{"className":5596,"style":274},[77],[15,5598,5600,5603,5606],{"className":5599},[58],[15,5601],{"className":5602,"style":261},[62],[15,5604,236],{"className":5605},[203],[15,5607],{"className":5608,"style":199},[77],[15,5610,5612,5615,5618,5621,5624],{"className":5611},[58],[15,5613],{"className":5614,"style":124},[62],[15,5616,45],{"className":5617,"style":82},[67,68],[15,5619],{"className":5620,"style":199},[77],[15,5622,170],{"className":5623},[203],[15,5625],{"className":5626,"style":199},[77],[15,5628,5630,5633],{"className":5629},[58],[15,5631],{"className":5632,"style":299},[62],[15,5634,4205],{"className":5635,"style":4234},[67,68],[15,5637,5639,5652],{"className":5638,"translate":19},[18],[15,5640,5642],{"className":5641},[23],[25,5643,5644],{"xmlns":27},[29,5645,5646,5650],{},[32,5647,5648],{},[35,5649,4205],{},[47,5651,4205],{"encoding":49},[15,5653,5655],{"className":5654,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,5656,5658,5661],{"className":5657},[58],[15,5659],{"className":5660,"style":299},[62],[15,5662,4205],{"className":5663,"style":4234},[67,68],"，即便只是给定 ",[15,5666,5668,5681],{"className":5667,"translate":19},[18],[15,5669,5671],{"className":5670},[23],[25,5672,5673],{"xmlns":27},[29,5674,5675,5679],{},[32,5676,5677],{},[35,5678,4205],{},[47,5680,4205],{"encoding":49},[15,5682,5684],{"className":5683,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,5685,5687,5690],{"className":5686},[58],[15,5688],{"className":5689,"style":299},[62],[15,5691,4205],{"className":5692,"style":4234},[67,68]," 的后代变量，也会产生条件不独立）。",[11,5695,5696,5698,5699,5793,5794,5847,5848,5900,5901,5993,5994,6022,6023,6051,6052,6093,6094,6122,6123,6151,6152,6180,6181,6209,6210,6238],{},[4656,5697,4658],{},"：不失一般性设 ",[15,5700,5702,5735],{"className":5701,"translate":19},[18],[15,5703,5705],{"className":5704},[23],[25,5706,5707],{"xmlns":27},[29,5708,5709,5732],{},[32,5710,5711,5713,5715,5718,5720,5722,5724,5726,5728,5730],{},[35,5712,4205],{},[39,5714,602],{},[35,5716,5717],{},"f",[39,5719,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,5721,37],{},[39,5723,42],{"separator":41},[35,5725,45],{},[39,5727,42],{"separator":41},[35,5729,2454],{},[39,5731,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,5733,5734],{"encoding":49},"Z = f(X, Y, U)",[15,5736,5738,5756],{"className":5737,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,5739,5741,5744,5747,5750,5753],{"className":5740},[58],[15,5742],{"className":5743,"style":299},[62],[15,5745,4205],{"className":5746,"style":4234},[67,68],[15,5748],{"className":5749,"style":199},[77],[15,5751,602],{"className":5752},[203],[15,5754],{"className":5755,"style":199},[77],[15,5757,5759,5762,5766,5769,5772,5775,5778,5781,5784,5787,5790],{"className":5758},[58],[15,5760],{"className":5761,"style":124},[62],[15,5763,5717],{"className":5764,"style":5765},[67,68],"margin-right:0.1076em;",[15,5767,102],{"className":5768},[132],[15,5770,37],{"className":5771,"style":69},[67,68],[15,5773,42],{"className":5774},[73],[15,5776],{"className":5777,"style":78},[77],[15,5779,45],{"className":5780,"style":82},[67,68],[15,5782,42],{"className":5783},[73],[15,5785],{"className":5786,"style":78},[77],[15,5788,2454],{"className":5789,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,5791,111],{"className":5792},[148],"。给定 ",[15,5795,5797,5816],{"className":5796,"translate":19},[18],[15,5798,5800],{"className":5799},[23],[25,5801,5802],{"xmlns":27},[29,5803,5804,5813],{},[32,5805,5806,5808,5810],{},[35,5807,4205],{},[39,5809,602],{},[35,5811,5812],{},"z",[47,5814,5815],{"encoding":49},"Z = z",[15,5817,5819,5837],{"className":5818,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,5820,5822,5825,5828,5831,5834],{"className":5821},[58],[15,5823],{"className":5824,"style":299},[62],[15,5826,4205],{"className":5827,"style":4234},[67,68],[15,5829],{"className":5830,"style":199},[77],[15,5832,602],{"className":5833},[203],[15,5835],{"className":5836,"style":199},[77],[15,5838,5840,5843],{"className":5839},[58],[15,5841],{"className":5842,"style":635},[62],[15,5844,5812],{"className":5845,"style":5846},[67,68],"margin-right:0.044em;"," 这一约束，相当于把 ",[15,5849,5851,5873],{"className":5850,"translate":19},[18],[15,5852,5854],{"className":5853},[23],[25,5855,5856],{"xmlns":27},[29,5857,5858,5870],{},[32,5859,5860,5862,5864,5866,5868],{},[39,5861,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,5863,37],{},[39,5865,42],{"separator":41},[35,5867,45],{},[39,5869,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,5871,5872],{"encoding":49},"(X,Y)",[15,5874,5876],{"className":5875,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,5877,5879,5882,5885,5888,5891,5894,5897],{"className":5878},[58],[15,5880],{"className":5881,"style":124},[62],[15,5883,102],{"className":5884},[132],[15,5886,37],{"className":5887,"style":69},[67,68],[15,5889,42],{"className":5890},[73],[15,5892],{"className":5893,"style":78},[77],[15,5895,45],{"className":5896,"style":82},[67,68],[15,5898,111],{"className":5899},[148]," 的取值限制在满足 ",[15,5902,5904,5936],{"className":5903,"translate":19},[18],[15,5905,5907],{"className":5906},[23],[25,5908,5909],{"xmlns":27},[29,5910,5911,5933],{},[32,5912,5913,5915,5917,5919,5921,5923,5925,5927,5929,5931],{},[35,5914,5717],{},[39,5916,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,5918,37],{},[39,5920,42],{"separator":41},[35,5922,45],{},[39,5924,42],{"separator":41},[35,5926,2454],{},[39,5928,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,5930,602],{},[35,5932,5812],{},[47,5934,5935],{"encoding":49},"f(X,Y,U)=z",[15,5937,5939,5984],{"className":5938,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,5940,5942,5945,5948,5951,5954,5957,5960,5963,5966,5969,5972,5975,5978,5981],{"className":5941},[58],[15,5943],{"className":5944,"style":124},[62],[15,5946,5717],{"className":5947,"style":5765},[67,68],[15,5949,102],{"className":5950},[132],[15,5952,37],{"className":5953,"style":69},[67,68],[15,5955,42],{"className":5956},[73],[15,5958],{"className":5959,"style":78},[77],[15,5961,45],{"className":5962,"style":82},[67,68],[15,5964,42],{"className":5965},[73],[15,5967],{"className":5968,"style":78},[77],[15,5970,2454],{"className":5971,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,5973,111],{"className":5974},[148],[15,5976],{"className":5977,"style":199},[77],[15,5979,602],{"className":5980},[203],[15,5982],{"className":5983,"style":199},[77],[15,5985,5987,5990],{"className":5986},[58],[15,5988],{"className":5989,"style":635},[62],[15,5991,5812],{"className":5992,"style":5846},[67,68]," 的一个子流形上。在这个子流形上，",[15,5995,5997,6010],{"className":5996,"translate":19},[18],[15,5998,6000],{"className":5999},[23],[25,6001,6002],{"xmlns":27},[29,6003,6004,6008],{},[32,6005,6006],{},[35,6007,37],{},[47,6009,37],{"encoding":49},[15,6011,6013],{"className":6012,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6014,6016,6019],{"className":6015},[58],[15,6017],{"className":6018,"style":299},[62],[15,6020,37],{"className":6021,"style":69},[67,68]," 的取值会反向约束 ",[15,6024,6026,6039],{"className":6025,"translate":19},[18],[15,6027,6029],{"className":6028},[23],[25,6030,6031],{"xmlns":27},[29,6032,6033,6037],{},[32,6034,6035],{},[35,6036,45],{},[47,6038,45],{"encoding":49},[15,6040,6042],{"className":6041,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6043,6045,6048],{"className":6044},[58],[15,6046],{"className":6047,"style":299},[62],[15,6049,45],{"className":6050,"style":82},[67,68]," 的可能取值范围——即便 ",[15,6053,6055,6072],{"className":6054,"translate":19},[18],[15,6056,6058],{"className":6057},[23],[25,6059,6060],{"xmlns":27},[29,6061,6062,6070],{},[32,6063,6064,6066,6068],{},[35,6065,37],{},[39,6067,42],{"separator":41},[35,6069,45],{},[47,6071,50],{"encoding":49},[15,6073,6075],{"className":6074,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6076,6078,6081,6084,6087,6090],{"className":6077},[58],[15,6079],{"className":6080,"style":63},[62],[15,6082,37],{"className":6083,"style":69},[67,68],[15,6085,42],{"className":6086},[73],[15,6088],{"className":6089,"style":78},[77],[15,6091,45],{"className":6092,"style":82},[67,68]," 在无约束时相互独立，在此子流形上二者一般不再独立。这一现象与「解释消除（explaining away）」直觉一致：已知 ",[15,6095,6097,6110],{"className":6096,"translate":19},[18],[15,6098,6100],{"className":6099},[23],[25,6101,6102],{"xmlns":27},[29,6103,6104,6108],{},[32,6105,6106],{},[35,6107,4205],{},[47,6109,4205],{"encoding":49},[15,6111,6113],{"className":6112,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6114,6116,6119],{"className":6115},[58],[15,6117],{"className":6118,"style":299},[62],[15,6120,4205],{"className":6121,"style":4234},[67,68]," 发生，若又得知 ",[15,6124,6126,6139],{"className":6125,"translate":19},[18],[15,6127,6129],{"className":6128},[23],[25,6130,6131],{"xmlns":27},[29,6132,6133,6137],{},[32,6134,6135],{},[35,6136,37],{},[47,6138,37],{"encoding":49},[15,6140,6142],{"className":6141,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6143,6145,6148],{"className":6144},[58],[15,6146],{"className":6147,"style":299},[62],[15,6149,37],{"className":6150,"style":69},[67,68]," 是导致 ",[15,6153,6155,6168],{"className":6154,"translate":19},[18],[15,6156,6158],{"className":6157},[23],[25,6159,6160],{"xmlns":27},[29,6161,6162,6166],{},[32,6163,6164],{},[35,6165,4205],{},[47,6167,4205],{"encoding":49},[15,6169,6171],{"className":6170,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6172,6174,6177],{"className":6173},[58],[15,6175],{"className":6176,"style":299},[62],[15,6178,4205],{"className":6179,"style":4234},[67,68]," 的原因，则 ",[15,6182,6184,6197],{"className":6183,"translate":19},[18],[15,6185,6187],{"className":6186},[23],[25,6188,6189],{"xmlns":27},[29,6190,6191,6195],{},[32,6192,6193],{},[35,6194,45],{},[47,6196,45],{"encoding":49},[15,6198,6200],{"className":6199,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6201,6203,6206],{"className":6202},[58],[15,6204],{"className":6205,"style":299},[62],[15,6207,45],{"className":6208,"style":82},[67,68]," 作为 ",[15,6211,6213,6226],{"className":6212,"translate":19},[18],[15,6214,6216],{"className":6215},[23],[25,6217,6218],{"xmlns":27},[29,6219,6220,6224],{},[32,6221,6222],{},[35,6223,4205],{},[47,6225,4205],{"encoding":49},[15,6227,6229],{"className":6228,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6230,6232,6235],{"className":6231},[58],[15,6233],{"className":6234,"style":299},[62],[15,6236,4205],{"className":6237,"style":4234},[67,68]," 的另一原因的「责任」会被相应降低。",[1314,6240,6242],{"title":6241},"例 1.4",[11,6243,6244,6245,6323,6324,6327,6328,6331],{},"才华（Talent）→ 明星身份（Celebrity）← 美貌（Beauty）。设才华与美貌在总体人群中独立同分布，互不相关。若将研究样本限定为「已成为明星的人」（即条件化 ",[15,6246,6248,6271],{"className":6247,"translate":19},[18],[15,6249,6251],{"className":6250},[23],[25,6252,6253],{"xmlns":27},[29,6254,6255,6268],{},[32,6256,6257,6259,6261,6264,6266],{},[35,6258,4205],{},[39,6260,602],{},[238,6262,6263],{},"Celebrity",[39,6265,602],{},[1423,6267,1425],{},[47,6269,6270],{"encoding":49},"Z=\\text{Celebrity}=1",[15,6272,6274,6292,6314],{"className":6273,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6275,6277,6280,6283,6286,6289],{"className":6276},[58],[15,6278],{"className":6279,"style":299},[62],[15,6281,4205],{"className":6282,"style":4234},[67,68],[15,6284],{"className":6285,"style":199},[77],[15,6287,602],{"className":6288},[203],[15,6290],{"className":6291,"style":199},[77],[15,6293,6295,6298,6305,6308,6311],{"className":6294},[58],[15,6296],{"className":6297,"style":4446},[62],[15,6299,6302],{"className":6300},[67,6301],"text",[15,6303,6263],{"className":6304},[67],[15,6306],{"className":6307,"style":199},[77],[15,6309,602],{"className":6310},[203],[15,6312],{"className":6313,"style":199},[77],[15,6315,6317,6320],{"className":6316},[58],[15,6318],{"className":6319,"style":3145},[62],[15,6321,1425],{"className":6322},[67],"），则在这一子群体中，才华与美貌会呈现出",[305,6325,6326],{},"负相关","——因为一个才华一般的人若能成为明星，多半是靠美貌弥补，反之亦然。这一负相关是样本选择造成的统计假象，并非二者之间存在任何真实的因果联系。这类偏差在流行病学中亦称",[305,6329,6330],{},"伯克森悖论（Berkson's Paradox）","，也是众多观测性研究中「选择偏差」的图论根源。",[1309,6333,6335],{"id":6334},"_13-d-分离路径阻断的一般判据","1.3 d-分离：路径阻断的一般判据",[11,6337,6338],{},"三种基本结构可统一为一个可在任意复杂 DAG 上递归判定的一般规则。",[1314,6340,6342,6602,6821],{"title":6341},"定义 1.5（路径的阻断）",[11,6343,6344,6345,6396,6397,2031,6426,431,6454,6482,6483,6511,6512,4327,6540,6543,6544,6572,6573,6601],{},"设 ",[15,6346,6348,6366],{"className":6347,"translate":19},[18],[15,6349,6351],{"className":6350},[23],[25,6352,6353],{"xmlns":27},[29,6354,6355,6363],{},[32,6356,6357,6359,6361],{},[35,6358,3769],{},[39,6360,1597],{},[35,6362,1341],{},[47,6364,6365],{"encoding":49},"S \\subseteq V",[15,6367,6369,6387],{"className":6368,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6370,6372,6375,6378,6381,6384],{"className":6371},[58],[15,6373],{"className":6374,"style":1617},[62],[15,6376,3769],{"className":6377,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,6379],{"className":6380,"style":199},[77],[15,6382,1597],{"className":6383},[203],[15,6385],{"className":6386,"style":199},[77],[15,6388,6390,6393],{"className":6389},[58],[15,6391],{"className":6392,"style":299},[62],[15,6394,1341],{"className":6395,"style":82},[67,68]," 为一组已条件化的节点集合，",[15,6398,6400,6413],{"className":6399,"translate":19},[18],[15,6401,6403],{"className":6402},[23],[25,6404,6405],{"xmlns":27},[29,6406,6407,6411],{},[32,6408,6409],{},[35,6410,11],{},[47,6412,11],{"encoding":49},[15,6414,6416],{"className":6415,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6417,6419,6423],{"className":6418},[58],[15,6420],{"className":6421,"style":6422},[62],"height:0.625em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[15,6424,11],{"className":6425},[67,68],[15,6427,6429,6442],{"className":6428,"translate":19},[18],[15,6430,6432],{"className":6431},[23],[25,6433,6434],{"xmlns":27},[29,6435,6436,6440],{},[32,6437,6438],{},[35,6439,37],{},[47,6441,37],{"encoding":49},[15,6443,6445],{"className":6444,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6446,6448,6451],{"className":6447},[58],[15,6449],{"className":6450,"style":299},[62],[15,6452,37],{"className":6453,"style":69},[67,68],[15,6455,6457,6470],{"className":6456,"translate":19},[18],[15,6458,6460],{"className":6459},[23],[25,6461,6462],{"xmlns":27},[29,6463,6464,6468],{},[32,6465,6466],{},[35,6467,45],{},[47,6469,45],{"encoding":49},[15,6471,6473],{"className":6472,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6474,6476,6479],{"className":6475},[58],[15,6477],{"className":6478,"style":299},[62],[15,6480,45],{"className":6481,"style":82},[67,68]," 之间的一条路径。称 ",[15,6484,6486,6499],{"className":6485,"translate":19},[18],[15,6487,6489],{"className":6488},[23],[25,6490,6491],{"xmlns":27},[29,6492,6493,6497],{},[32,6494,6495],{},[35,6496,11],{},[47,6498,11],{"encoding":49},[15,6500,6502],{"className":6501,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6503,6505,6508],{"className":6504},[58],[15,6506],{"className":6507,"style":6422},[62],[15,6509,11],{"className":6510},[67,68]," 被 ",[15,6513,6515,6528],{"className":6514,"translate":19},[18],[15,6516,6518],{"className":6517},[23],[25,6519,6520],{"xmlns":27},[29,6521,6522,6526],{},[32,6523,6524],{},[35,6525,3769],{},[47,6527,3769],{"encoding":49},[15,6529,6531],{"className":6530,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6532,6534,6537],{"className":6533},[58],[15,6535],{"className":6536,"style":299},[62],[15,6538,3769],{"className":6539,"style":1394},[67,68],[305,6541,6542],{},"阻断","，当且仅当 ",[15,6545,6547,6560],{"className":6546,"translate":19},[18],[15,6548,6550],{"className":6549},[23],[25,6551,6552],{"xmlns":27},[29,6553,6554,6558],{},[32,6555,6556],{},[35,6557,11],{},[47,6559,11],{"encoding":49},[15,6561,6563],{"className":6562,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6564,6566,6569],{"className":6565},[58],[15,6567],{"className":6568,"style":6422},[62],[15,6570,11],{"className":6571},[67,68]," 上至少存在一个节点 ",[15,6574,6576,6589],{"className":6575,"translate":19},[18],[15,6577,6579],{"className":6578},[23],[25,6580,6581],{"xmlns":27},[29,6582,6583,6587],{},[32,6584,6585],{},[35,6586,4205],{},[47,6588,4205],{"encoding":49},[15,6590,6592],{"className":6591,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6593,6595,6598],{"className":6594},[58],[15,6596],{"className":6597,"style":299},[62],[15,6599,4205],{"className":6600,"style":4234},[67,68]," 满足下列条件之一：",[11,6603,6604,6605,6657,6658,6686,6687,6715,6716,6768,6769,6820],{},"(i) ",[15,6606,6608,6626],{"className":6607,"translate":19},[18],[15,6609,6611],{"className":6610},[23],[25,6612,6613],{"xmlns":27},[29,6614,6615,6623],{},[32,6616,6617,6619,6621],{},[35,6618,4205],{},[39,6620,1694],{},[35,6622,3769],{},[47,6624,6625],{"encoding":49},"Z \\in S",[15,6627,6629,6648],{"className":6628,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6630,6632,6636,6639,6642,6645],{"className":6631},[58],[15,6633],{"className":6634,"style":6635},[62],"height:0.7224em;vertical-align:-0.0391em;",[15,6637,4205],{"className":6638,"style":4234},[67,68],[15,6640],{"className":6641,"style":199},[77],[15,6643,1694],{"className":6644},[203],[15,6646],{"className":6647,"style":199},[77],[15,6649,6651,6654],{"className":6650},[58],[15,6652],{"className":6653,"style":299},[62],[15,6655,3769],{"className":6656,"style":1394},[67,68],"，且 ",[15,6659,6661,6674],{"className":6660,"translate":19},[18],[15,6662,6664],{"className":6663},[23],[25,6665,6666],{"xmlns":27},[29,6667,6668,6672],{},[32,6669,6670],{},[35,6671,4205],{},[47,6673,4205],{"encoding":49},[15,6675,6677],{"className":6676,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6678,6680,6683],{"className":6679},[58],[15,6681],{"className":6682,"style":299},[62],[15,6684,4205],{"className":6685,"style":4234},[67,68]," 在 ",[15,6688,6690,6703],{"className":6689,"translate":19},[18],[15,6691,6693],{"className":6692},[23],[25,6694,6695],{"xmlns":27},[29,6696,6697,6701],{},[32,6698,6699],{},[35,6700,11],{},[47,6702,11],{"encoding":49},[15,6704,6706],{"className":6705,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6707,6709,6712],{"className":6708},[58],[15,6710],{"className":6711,"style":6422},[62],[15,6713,11],{"className":6714},[67,68]," 上构成链结构（",[15,6717,6719,6737],{"className":6718,"translate":19},[18],[15,6720,6722],{"className":6721},[23],[25,6723,6724],{"xmlns":27},[29,6725,6726,6734],{},[32,6727,6728,6730,6732],{},[39,6729,1844],{},[35,6731,4205],{},[39,6733,1844],{},[47,6735,6736],{"encoding":49},"\\to Z \\to",[15,6738,6740,6753],{"className":6739,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6741,6743,6747,6750],{"className":6742},[58],[15,6744],{"className":6745,"style":6746},[62],"height:0.3669em;",[15,6748,1844],{"className":6749},[203],[15,6751],{"className":6752,"style":199},[77],[15,6754,6756,6759,6762,6765],{"className":6755},[58],[15,6757],{"className":6758,"style":299},[62],[15,6760,4205],{"className":6761,"style":4234},[67,68],[15,6763],{"className":6764,"style":199},[77],[15,6766,1844],{"className":6767},[203],"）或叉结构（",[15,6770,6772,6790],{"className":6771,"translate":19},[18],[15,6773,6775],{"className":6774},[23],[25,6776,6777],{"xmlns":27},[29,6778,6779,6787],{},[32,6780,6781,6783,6785],{},[39,6782,4876],{},[35,6784,4205],{},[39,6786,1844],{},[47,6788,6789],{"encoding":49},"\\leftarrow Z \\to",[15,6791,6793,6805],{"className":6792,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6794,6796,6799,6802],{"className":6795},[58],[15,6797],{"className":6798,"style":6746},[62],[15,6800,4876],{"className":6801},[203],[15,6803],{"className":6804,"style":199},[77],[15,6806,6808,6811,6814,6817],{"className":6807},[58],[15,6809],{"className":6810,"style":299},[62],[15,6812,4205],{"className":6813,"style":4234},[67,68],[15,6815],{"className":6816,"style":199},[77],[15,6818,1844],{"className":6819},[203],"）；",[11,6822,6823,6824,6686,6852,6880,6881,6932,6933,6961,6962,2247],{},"(ii) ",[15,6825,6827,6840],{"className":6826,"translate":19},[18],[15,6828,6830],{"className":6829},[23],[25,6831,6832],{"xmlns":27},[29,6833,6834,6838],{},[32,6835,6836],{},[35,6837,4205],{},[47,6839,4205],{"encoding":49},[15,6841,6843],{"className":6842,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6844,6846,6849],{"className":6845},[58],[15,6847],{"className":6848,"style":299},[62],[15,6850,4205],{"className":6851,"style":4234},[67,68],[15,6853,6855,6868],{"className":6854,"translate":19},[18],[15,6856,6858],{"className":6857},[23],[25,6859,6860],{"xmlns":27},[29,6861,6862,6866],{},[32,6863,6864],{},[35,6865,11],{},[47,6867,11],{"encoding":49},[15,6869,6871],{"className":6870,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6872,6874,6877],{"className":6873},[58],[15,6875],{"className":6876,"style":6422},[62],[15,6878,11],{"className":6879},[67,68]," 上构成对撞结构（",[15,6882,6884,6902],{"className":6883,"translate":19},[18],[15,6885,6887],{"className":6886},[23],[25,6888,6889],{"xmlns":27},[29,6890,6891,6899],{},[32,6892,6893,6895,6897],{},[39,6894,1844],{},[35,6896,4205],{},[39,6898,4876],{},[47,6900,6901],{"encoding":49},"\\to Z \\leftarrow",[15,6903,6905,6917],{"className":6904,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6906,6908,6911,6914],{"className":6907},[58],[15,6909],{"className":6910,"style":6746},[62],[15,6912,1844],{"className":6913},[203],[15,6915],{"className":6916,"style":199},[77],[15,6918,6920,6923,6926,6929],{"className":6919},[58],[15,6921],{"className":6922,"style":299},[62],[15,6924,4205],{"className":6925,"style":4234},[67,68],[15,6927],{"className":6928,"style":199},[77],[15,6930,4876],{"className":6931},[203],"），且 ",[15,6934,6936,6949],{"className":6935,"translate":19},[18],[15,6937,6939],{"className":6938},[23],[25,6940,6941],{"xmlns":27},[29,6942,6943,6947],{},[32,6944,6945],{},[35,6946,4205],{},[47,6948,4205],{"encoding":49},[15,6950,6952],{"className":6951,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6953,6955,6958],{"className":6954},[58],[15,6956],{"className":6957,"style":299},[62],[15,6959,4205],{"className":6960,"style":4234},[67,68]," 本身及其**全部后代（descendants）**都不属于 ",[15,6963,6965,6978],{"className":6964,"translate":19},[18],[15,6966,6968],{"className":6967},[23],[25,6969,6970],{"xmlns":27},[29,6971,6972,6976],{},[32,6973,6974],{},[35,6975,3769],{},[47,6977,3769],{"encoding":49},[15,6979,6981],{"className":6980,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,6982,6984,6987],{"className":6983},[58],[15,6985],{"className":6986,"style":299},[62],[15,6988,3769],{"className":6989,"style":1394},[67,68],[1314,6991,6993],{"title":6992},"定义 1.6（d-分离）",[11,6994,6995,6996,431,7024,7052,7053,7056,7057,7085,7086,431,7114,7142,7143,7171,7172,1823,7175,2247],{},"若 ",[15,6997,6999,7012],{"className":6998,"translate":19},[18],[15,7000,7002],{"className":7001},[23],[25,7003,7004],{"xmlns":27},[29,7005,7006,7010],{},[32,7007,7008],{},[35,7009,37],{},[47,7011,37],{"encoding":49},[15,7013,7015],{"className":7014,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,7016,7018,7021],{"className":7017},[58],[15,7019],{"className":7020,"style":299},[62],[15,7022,37],{"className":7023,"style":69},[67,68],[15,7025,7027,7040],{"className":7026,"translate":19},[18],[15,7028,7030],{"className":7029},[23],[25,7031,7032],{"xmlns":27},[29,7033,7034,7038],{},[32,7035,7036],{},[35,7037,45],{},[47,7039,45],{"encoding":49},[15,7041,7043],{"className":7042,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,7044,7046,7049],{"className":7045},[58],[15,7047],{"className":7048,"style":299},[62],[15,7050,45],{"className":7051,"style":82},[67,68]," 之间的",[305,7054,7055],{},"每一条","路径都被 ",[15,7058,7060,7073],{"className":7059,"translate":19},[18],[15,7061,7063],{"className":7062},[23],[25,7064,7065],{"xmlns":27},[29,7066,7067,7071],{},[32,7068,7069],{},[35,7070,3769],{},[47,7072,3769],{"encoding":49},[15,7074,7076],{"className":7075,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,7077,7079,7082],{"className":7078},[58],[15,7080],{"className":7081,"style":299},[62],[15,7083,3769],{"className":7084,"style":1394},[67,68]," 阻断，则称 ",[15,7087,7089,7102],{"className":7088,"translate":19},[18],[15,7090,7092],{"className":7091},[23],[25,7093,7094],{"xmlns":27},[29,7095,7096,7100],{},[32,7097,7098],{},[35,7099,37],{},[47,7101,37],{"encoding":49},[15,7103,7105],{"className":7104,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,7106,7108,7111],{"className":7107},[58],[15,7109],{"className":7110,"style":299},[62],[15,7112,37],{"className":7113,"style":69},[67,68],[15,7115,7117,7130],{"className":7116,"translate":19},[18],[15,7118,7120],{"className":7119},[23],[25,7121,7122],{"xmlns":27},[29,7123,7124,7128],{},[32,7125,7126],{},[35,7127,45],{},[47,7129,45],{"encoding":49},[15,7131,7133],{"className":7132,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,7134,7136,7139],{"className":7135},[58],[15,7137],{"className":7138,"style":299},[62],[15,7140,45],{"className":7141,"style":82},[67,68]," 在给定 ",[15,7144,7146,7159],{"className":7145,"translate":19},[18],[15,7147,7149],{"className":7148},[23],[25,7150,7151],{"xmlns":27},[29,7152,7153,7157],{},[32,7154,7155],{},[35,7156,3769],{},[47,7158,3769],{"encoding":49},[15,7160,7162],{"className":7161,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,7163,7165,7168],{"className":7164},[58],[15,7166],{"className":7167,"style":299},[62],[15,7169,3769],{"className":7170,"style":1394},[67,68]," 时 ",[305,7173,7174],{},"d-分离",[15,7176,7178,7220],{"className":7177,"translate":19},[18],[15,7179,7181],{"className":7180},[23],[25,7182,7183],{"xmlns":27},[29,7184,7185,7217],{},[32,7186,7187,7189,7191,7193,7195,7197,7199,7205,7207,7209,7211],{},[39,7188,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,7190,37],{},[39,7192,236],{},[238,7194,240],{},[238,7196,240],{},[238,7198,240],{},[863,7200,7201,7203],{},[39,7202,236],{},[35,7204,696],{},[35,7206,45],{},[39,7208,170],{},[35,7210,3769],{},[863,7212,7213,7215],{},[39,7214,111],{"stretchy":101},[35,7216,1334],{},[47,7218,7219],{"encoding":49},"(X \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp_d Y \\mid S)_G",[15,7221,7223,7250,7301,7319],{"className":7222,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,7224,7226,7229,7232,7235,7238,7241,7244,7247],{"className":7225},[58],[15,7227],{"className":7228,"style":124},[62],[15,7230,102],{"className":7231},[132],[15,7233,37],{"className":7234,"style":69},[67,68],[15,7236],{"className":7237,"style":199},[77],[15,7239,236],{"className":7240},[203],[15,7242],{"className":7243,"style":274},[77],[15,7245],{"className":7246,"style":274},[77],[15,7248],{"className":7249,"style":274},[77],[15,7251,7253,7257,7298],{"className":7252},[58],[15,7254],{"className":7255,"style":7256},[62],"height:0.8444em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[15,7258,7260,7263],{"className":7259},[203],[15,7261,236],{"className":7262},[203],[15,7264,7266],{"className":7265},[918],[15,7267,7269,7290],{"className":7268},[922,923],[15,7270,7272,7287],{"className":7271},[927],[15,7273,7275],{"className":7274,"style":2684},[931],[15,7276,7278,7281],{"style":7277},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;",[15,7279],{"className":7280,"style":940},[939],[15,7282,7284],{"className":7283},[944,945,946,947],[15,7285,696],{"className":7286},[67,68,947],[15,7288,955],{"className":7289},[954],[15,7291,7293],{"className":7292},[927],[15,7294,7296],{"className":7295,"style":962},[931],[15,7297],{},[15,7299],{"className":7300,"style":199},[77],[15,7302,7304,7307,7310,7313,7316],{"className":7303},[58],[15,7305],{"className":7306,"style":124},[62],[15,7308,45],{"className":7309,"style":82},[67,68],[15,7311],{"className":7312,"style":199},[77],[15,7314,170],{"className":7315},[203],[15,7317],{"className":7318,"style":199},[77],[15,7320,7322,7325,7328],{"className":7321},[58],[15,7323],{"className":7324,"style":124},[62],[15,7326,3769],{"className":7327,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,7329,7331,7334],{"className":7330},[148],[15,7332,111],{"className":7333},[148],[15,7335,7337],{"className":7336},[918],[15,7338,7340,7361],{"className":7339},[922,923],[15,7341,7343,7358],{"className":7342},[927],[15,7344,7347],{"className":7345,"style":7346},[931],"height:0.3283em;",[15,7348,7349,7352],{"style":7277},[15,7350],{"className":7351,"style":940},[939],[15,7353,7355],{"className":7354},[944,945,946,947],[15,7356,1334],{"className":7357},[67,68,947],[15,7359,955],{"className":7360},[954],[15,7362,7364],{"className":7363},[927],[15,7365,7367],{"className":7366,"style":962},[931],[15,7368],{},[1314,7370,7372],{"title":7371},"定理 1.1（图 - 分布对应定理，Verma & Pearl, 1988）",[11,7373,7374,7375,7403,7404,7432,7433,7763,7764,7767,7768,7796,7797,7825,7826,7829,7830,7858,7859,2247],{},"设分布 ",[15,7376,7378,7391],{"className":7377,"translate":19},[18],[15,7379,7381],{"className":7380},[23],[25,7382,7383],{"xmlns":27},[29,7384,7385,7389],{},[32,7386,7387],{},[35,7388,98],{},[47,7390,98],{"encoding":49},[15,7392,7394],{"className":7393,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,7395,7397,7400],{"className":7396},[58],[15,7398],{"className":7399,"style":299},[62],[15,7401,98],{"className":7402,"style":128},[67,68]," 由与 DAG ",[15,7405,7407,7420],{"className":7406,"translate":19},[18],[15,7408,7410],{"className":7409},[23],[25,7411,7412],{"xmlns":27},[29,7413,7414,7418],{},[32,7415,7416],{},[35,7417,1334],{},[47,7419,1334],{"encoding":49},[15,7421,7423],{"className":7422,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,7424,7426,7429],{"className":7425},[58],[15,7427],{"className":7428,"style":299},[62],[15,7430,1334],{"className":7431},[67,68]," 相容的 SCM 生成（见第二部分马尔可夫性假设）。则：\n",[15,7434,7436,7512],{"className":7435,"translate":19},[18],[15,7437,7439],{"className":7438},[23],[25,7440,7441],{"xmlns":27},[29,7442,7443,7509],{},[32,7444,7445,7447,7449,7451,7453,7455,7457,7463,7465,7467,7469,7475,7478,7481,7483,7485,7487,7489,7491,7493,7495,7497,7499,7501,7504,7506],{},[39,7446,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,7448,37],{},[39,7450,236],{},[238,7452,240],{},[238,7454,240],{},[238,7456,240],{},[863,7458,7459,7461],{},[39,7460,236],{},[35,7462,696],{},[35,7464,45],{},[39,7466,170],{},[35,7468,3769],{},[863,7470,7471,7473],{},[39,7472,111],{"stretchy":101},[35,7474,1334],{},[238,7476,7477],{},"  ",[39,7479,7480],{},"⟹",[238,7482,7477],{},[35,7484,37],{},[39,7486,236],{},[238,7488,240],{},[238,7490,240],{},[238,7492,240],{},[39,7494,236],{},[35,7496,45],{},[39,7498,170],{},[35,7500,3769],{},[238,7502,7503],{}," 在 ",[35,7505,98],{},[238,7507,7508],{}," 中成立",[47,7510,7511],{"encoding":49},"(X \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp_d Y \\mid S)_G \\implies X \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp Y \\mid S \\text{ 在 } P \\text{ 中成立}",[15,7513,7515,7542,7591,7609,7673,7697,7709,7727],{"className":7514,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,7516,7518,7521,7524,7527,7530,7533,7536,7539],{"className":7517},[58],[15,7519],{"className":7520,"style":124},[62],[15,7522,102],{"className":7523},[132],[15,7525,37],{"className":7526,"style":69},[67,68],[15,7528],{"className":7529,"style":199},[77],[15,7531,236],{"className":7532},[203],[15,7534],{"className":7535,"style":274},[77],[15,7537],{"className":7538,"style":274},[77],[15,7540],{"className":7541,"style":274},[77],[15,7543,7545,7548,7588],{"className":7544},[58],[15,7546],{"className":7547,"style":7256},[62],[15,7549,7551,7554],{"className":7550},[203],[15,7552,236],{"className":7553},[203],[15,7555,7557],{"className":7556},[918],[15,7558,7560,7580],{"className":7559},[922,923],[15,7561,7563,7577],{"className":7562},[927],[15,7564,7566],{"className":7565,"style":2684},[931],[15,7567,7568,7571],{"style":7277},[15,7569],{"className":7570,"style":940},[939],[15,7572,7574],{"className":7573},[944,945,946,947],[15,7575,696],{"className":7576},[67,68,947],[15,7578,955],{"className":7579},[954],[15,7581,7583],{"className":7582},[927],[15,7584,7586],{"className":7585,"style":962},[931],[15,7587],{},[15,7589],{"className":7590,"style":199},[77],[15,7592,7594,7597,7600,7603,7606],{"className":7593},[58],[15,7595],{"className":7596,"style":124},[62],[15,7598,45],{"className":7599,"style":82},[67,68],[15,7601],{"className":7602,"style":199},[77],[15,7604,170],{"className":7605},[203],[15,7607],{"className":7608,"style":199},[77],[15,7610,7612,7615,7618,7658,7661,7664,7667,7670],{"className":7611},[58],[15,7613],{"className":7614,"style":124},[62],[15,7616,3769],{"className":7617,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,7619,7621,7624],{"className":7620},[148],[15,7622,111],{"className":7623},[148],[15,7625,7627],{"className":7626},[918],[15,7628,7630,7650],{"className":7629},[922,923],[15,7631,7633,7647],{"className":7632},[927],[15,7634,7636],{"className":7635,"style":7346},[931],[15,7637,7638,7641],{"style":7277},[15,7639],{"className":7640,"style":940},[939],[15,7642,7644],{"className":7643},[944,945,946,947],[15,7645,1334],{"className":7646},[67,68,947],[15,7648,955],{"className":7649},[954],[15,7651,7653],{"className":7652},[927],[15,7654,7656],{"className":7655,"style":962},[931],[15,7657],{},[15,7659],{"className":7660,"style":199},[77],[15,7662],{"className":7663,"style":199},[77],[15,7665,7480],{"className":7666},[203],[15,7668],{"className":7669,"style":199},[77],[15,7671],{"className":7672,"style":199},[77],[15,7674,7676,7679,7682,7685,7688,7691,7694],{"className":7675},[58],[15,7677],{"className":7678,"style":261},[62],[15,7680,37],{"className":7681,"style":69},[67,68],[15,7683],{"className":7684,"style":199},[77],[15,7686,236],{"className":7687},[203],[15,7689],{"className":7690,"style":274},[77],[15,7692],{"className":7693,"style":274},[77],[15,7695],{"className":7696,"style":274},[77],[15,7698,7700,7703,7706],{"className":7699},[58],[15,7701],{"className":7702,"style":261},[62],[15,7704,236],{"className":7705},[203],[15,7707],{"className":7708,"style":199},[77],[15,7710,7712,7715,7718,7721,7724],{"className":7711},[58],[15,7713],{"className":7714,"style":124},[62],[15,7716,45],{"className":7717,"style":82},[67,68],[15,7719],{"className":7720,"style":199},[77],[15,7722,170],{"className":7723},[203],[15,7725],{"className":7726,"style":199},[77],[15,7728,7730,7733,7736,7750,7753],{"className":7729},[58],[15,7731],{"className":7732,"style":299},[62],[15,7734,3769],{"className":7735,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,7737,7739,7742,7747],{"className":7738},[67,6301],[15,7740,3916],{"className":7741},[67],[15,7743,7746],{"className":7744},[67,7745],"cjk_fallback","在",[15,7748,3916],{"className":7749},[67],[15,7751,98],{"className":7752,"style":128},[67,68],[15,7754,7756,7759],{"className":7755},[67,6301],[15,7757,3916],{"className":7758},[67],[15,7760,7762],{"className":7761},[67,7745],"中成立","\n即 d-分离是概率独立性的",[305,7765,7766],{},"充分条件","。若进一步假设 ",[15,7769,7771,7784],{"className":7770,"translate":19},[18],[15,7772,7774],{"className":7773},[23],[25,7775,7776],{"xmlns":27},[29,7777,7778,7782],{},[32,7779,7780],{},[35,7781,98],{},[47,7783,98],{"encoding":49},[15,7785,7787],{"className":7786,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,7788,7790,7793],{"className":7789},[58],[15,7791],{"className":7792,"style":299},[62],[15,7794,98],{"className":7795,"style":128},[67,68]," 相对于 ",[15,7798,7800,7813],{"className":7799,"translate":19},[18],[15,7801,7803],{"className":7802},[23],[25,7804,7805],{"xmlns":27},[29,7806,7807,7811],{},[32,7808,7809],{},[35,7810,1334],{},[47,7812,1334],{"encoding":49},[15,7814,7816],{"className":7815,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,7817,7819,7822],{"className":7818},[58],[15,7820],{"className":7821,"style":299},[62],[15,7823,1334],{"className":7824},[67,68]," 满足",[305,7827,7828],{},"忠实性（faithfulness）","——即 ",[15,7831,7833,7846],{"className":7832,"translate":19},[18],[15,7834,7836],{"className":7835},[23],[25,7837,7838],{"xmlns":27},[29,7839,7840,7844],{},[32,7841,7842],{},[35,7843,98],{},[47,7845,98],{"encoding":49},[15,7847,7849],{"className":7848,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,7850,7852,7855],{"className":7851},[58],[15,7853],{"className":7854,"style":299},[62],[15,7856,98],{"className":7857,"style":128},[67,68]," 中不存在的独立性都不是偶然的参数取消所致——则该蕴含关系可加强为",[305,7860,7861],{},"当且仅当",[11,7863,7864,7865,7893,7894,7897,7898,2247],{},"这一定理的实践意义极为重大：它把「该不该在回归分析中控制某个变量」这一问题，从一个凭经验拍脑袋的决策，转化为一个在图上可机械判定的组合问题。控制混杂因子（叉结构中的 ",[15,7866,7868,7881],{"className":7867,"translate":19},[18],[15,7869,7871],{"className":7870},[23],[25,7872,7873],{"xmlns":27},[29,7874,7875,7879],{},[32,7876,7877],{},[35,7878,4205],{},[47,7880,4205],{"encoding":49},[15,7882,7884],{"className":7883,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,7885,7887,7890],{"className":7886},[58],[15,7888],{"className":7889,"style":299},[62],[15,7891,4205],{"className":7892,"style":4234},[67,68],"）能够正确地消除虚假关联；但控制对撞因子（或对撞因子的后代）却会人为",[305,7895,7896],{},"制造","虚假关联——这正是所谓「越多变量控制越严谨」这一朴素直觉在因果推断框架下失效的根本原因，实践中称为",[305,7899,7900],{},"对撞偏差引发的过度控制谬误（overcontrol bias）",[1309,7902,7904],{"id":7903},"_14-因果图的来源因果发现","1.4 因果图的来源：因果发现",[11,7906,7907],{},"定义 1.4 之后我们强调过：图中的每一条边都是不可从数据中验证的结构性假设。但一个自然的问题是——这些假设究竟从哪里来？实践中主要有四个来源：",[7909,7910,7911,7917,8032,8195],"ol",{},[510,7912,7913,7916],{},[305,7914,7915],{},"领域知识与物理机制","：电路中的欧姆定律、燃烧过程中的氧化反应，机制本身规定了方向；",[510,7918,7919,7922,7923,7951,7952,365,7980,8031],{},[305,7920,7921],{},"时间先后","：若 ",[15,7924,7926,7939],{"className":7925,"translate":19},[18],[15,7927,7929],{"className":7928},[23],[25,7930,7931],{"xmlns":27},[29,7932,7933,7937],{},[32,7934,7935],{},[35,7936,37],{},[47,7938,37],{"encoding":49},[15,7940,7942],{"className":7941,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,7943,7945,7948],{"className":7944},[58],[15,7946],{"className":7947,"style":299},[62],[15,7949,37],{"className":7950,"style":69},[67,68]," 在时间上先于 ",[15,7953,7955,7968],{"className":7954,"translate":19},[18],[15,7956,7958],{"className":7957},[23],[25,7959,7960],{"xmlns":27},[29,7961,7962,7966],{},[32,7963,7964],{},[35,7965,45],{},[47,7967,45],{"encoding":49},[15,7969,7971],{"className":7970,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,7972,7974,7977],{"className":7973},[58],[15,7975],{"className":7976,"style":299},[62],[15,7978,45],{"className":7979,"style":82},[67,68],[15,7981,7983,8001],{"className":7982,"translate":19},[18],[15,7984,7986],{"className":7985},[23],[25,7987,7988],{"xmlns":27},[29,7989,7990,7998],{},[32,7991,7992,7994,7996],{},[35,7993,45],{},[39,7995,1844],{},[35,7997,37],{},[47,7999,8000],{"encoding":49},"Y \\to X",[15,8002,8004,8022],{"className":8003,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,8005,8007,8010,8013,8016,8019],{"className":8006},[58],[15,8008],{"className":8009,"style":299},[62],[15,8011,45],{"className":8012,"style":82},[67,68],[15,8014],{"className":8015,"style":199},[77],[15,8017,1844],{"className":8018},[203],[15,8020],{"className":8021,"style":199},[77],[15,8023,8025,8028],{"className":8024},[58],[15,8026],{"className":8027,"style":299},[62],[15,8029,37],{"className":8030,"style":69},[67,68]," 被排除；但反向并不自动成立，因为共同原因仍可能同时影响二者；",[510,8033,8034,505,8037,8108,8109,8137,8138,4687,8166,8194],{},[305,8035,8036],{},"实验干预",[15,8038,8040,8066],{"className":8039,"translate":19},[18],[15,8041,8043],{"className":8042},[23],[25,8044,8045],{"xmlns":27},[29,8046,8047,8063],{},[32,8048,8049,8051,8053,8055,8057,8059,8061],{},[35,8050,696],{},[35,8052,699],{},[39,8054,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,8056,37],{},[39,8058,602],{},[35,8060,539],{},[39,8062,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,8064,8065],{"encoding":49},"do(X=x)",[15,8067,8069,8096],{"className":8068,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,8070,8072,8075,8078,8081,8084,8087,8090,8093],{"className":8071},[58],[15,8073],{"className":8074,"style":124},[62],[15,8076,696],{"className":8077},[67,68],[15,8079,699],{"className":8080},[67,68],[15,8082,102],{"className":8083},[132],[15,8085,37],{"className":8086,"style":69},[67,68],[15,8088],{"className":8089,"style":199},[77],[15,8091,602],{"className":8092},[203],[15,8094],{"className":8095,"style":199},[77],[15,8097,8099,8102,8105],{"className":8098},[58],[15,8100],{"className":8101,"style":124},[62],[15,8103,539],{"className":8104},[67,68],[15,8106,111],{"className":8107},[148]," 会切断 ",[15,8110,8112,8125],{"className":8111,"translate":19},[18],[15,8113,8115],{"className":8114},[23],[25,8116,8117],{"xmlns":27},[29,8118,8119,8123],{},[32,8120,8121],{},[35,8122,37],{},[47,8124,37],{"encoding":49},[15,8126,8128],{"className":8127,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,8129,8131,8134],{"className":8130},[58],[15,8132],{"className":8133,"style":299},[62],[15,8135,37],{"className":8136,"style":69},[67,68]," 的全部入边，直接暴露 ",[15,8139,8141,8154],{"className":8140,"translate":19},[18],[15,8142,8144],{"className":8143},[23],[25,8145,8146],{"xmlns":27},[29,8147,8148,8152],{},[32,8149,8150],{},[35,8151,37],{},[47,8153,37],{"encoding":49},[15,8155,8157],{"className":8156,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,8158,8160,8163],{"className":8159},[58],[15,8161],{"className":8162,"style":299},[62],[15,8164,37],{"className":8165,"style":69},[67,68],[15,8167,8169,8182],{"className":8168,"translate":19},[18],[15,8170,8172],{"className":8171},[23],[25,8173,8174],{"xmlns":27},[29,8175,8176,8180],{},[32,8177,8178],{},[35,8179,45],{},[47,8181,45],{"encoding":49},[15,8183,8185],{"className":8184,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,8186,8188,8191],{"className":8187},[58],[15,8189],{"className":8190,"style":299},[62],[15,8192,45],{"className":8193,"style":82},[67,68]," 的作用方向，是最可靠的来源；",[510,8196,8197,8200],{},[305,8198,8199],{},"因果发现算法","：在额外假设下，由观测数据自动推断图的结构。",[11,8202,8203,8204,2247],{},"第 4 条值得展开，因为它常被误解为「从数据中读出因果」，而其真实含义恰恰相反——",[305,8205,8206],{},"它是关于「在何种假设下，数据中的哪些部分能够约束图」的一组定理",[11,8208,8209,8210,8213,8214,8269],{},"首先要承认一个否定性结论：",[305,8211,8212],{},"仅凭观测分布，我们至多只能确定图所属的一个马尔可夫等价类（Markov equivalence class），而非图本身","。以三个变量 ",[15,8215,8217,8239],{"className":8216,"translate":19},[18],[15,8218,8220],{"className":8219},[23],[25,8221,8222],{"xmlns":27},[29,8223,8224,8236],{},[32,8225,8226,8228,8230,8232,8234],{},[35,8227,37],{},[39,8229,42],{"separator":41},[35,8231,45],{},[39,8233,42],{"separator":41},[35,8235,4205],{},[47,8237,8238],{"encoding":49},"X, Y, Z",[15,8240,8242],{"className":8241,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,8243,8245,8248,8251,8254,8257,8260,8263,8266],{"className":8244},[58],[15,8246],{"className":8247,"style":63},[62],[15,8249,37],{"className":8250,"style":69},[67,68],[15,8252,42],{"className":8253},[73],[15,8255],{"className":8256,"style":78},[77],[15,8258,45],{"className":8259,"style":82},[67,68],[15,8261,42],{"className":8262},[73],[15,8264],{"className":8265,"style":78},[77],[15,8267,4205],{"className":8268,"style":4234},[67,68]," 为例，下面三个 DAG",[4108,8271,8272],{},[4111,8273],{"height":8274,"width":8275,"style":4115,"data-d2-theme":4116,"alt":4117,"src":8276},614,250,"data:image\u002Fsvg+xml;base64,<svg width="432" height="614" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" data-d2-version="v0.9.0" viewBox="0 0 432 614"><svg width="432" height="614" class="d2-2391033666 d2-svg" viewBox="19 15 432 614"><rect width="432" height="614" x="19" y="15" stroke-width="0" rx="0" style="fill:#fff"/><style>.d2-2391033666 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",[15,8281,8283,8308],{"className":8282,"translate":19},[18],[15,8284,8286],{"className":8285},[23],[25,8287,8288],{"xmlns":27},[29,8289,8290,8306],{},[32,8291,8292,8294,8296,8298,8300,8302,8304],{},[35,8293,37],{},[39,8295,4423],{},[238,8297,240],{},[238,8299,240],{},[238,8301,240],{},[39,8303,236],{},[35,8305,45],{},[47,8307,4436],{"encoding":49},[15,8309,8311,8365,8377],{"className":8310,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,8312,8314,8317,8320,8323,8350,8353,8356,8359,8362],{"className":8313},[58],[15,8315],{"className":8316,"style":4446},[62],[15,8318,37],{"className":8319,"style":69},[67,68],[15,8321],{"className":8322,"style":199},[77],[15,8324,8326],{"className":8325},[203],[15,8327,8329],{"className":8328},[67,4459],[15,8330,8332],{"className":8331},[4463],[15,8333,8335,8338,8347],{"className":8334},[4467],[15,8336],{"className":8337,"style":4446},[62],[15,8339,8341],{"className":8340},[4474],[15,8342,8344],{"className":8343},[67],[15,8345,4481],{"className":8346},[203],[15,8348],{"className":8349},[4485],[15,8351],{"className":8352},[77,4489],[15,8354,236],{"className":8355},[203],[15,8357],{"className":8358,"style":274},[77],[15,8360],{"className":8361,"style":274},[77],[15,8363],{"className":8364,"style":274},[77],[15,8366,8368,8371,8374],{"className":8367},[58],[15,8369],{"className":8370,"style":261},[62],[15,8372,236],{"className":8373},[203],[15,8375],{"className":8376,"style":199},[77],[15,8378,8380,8383],{"className":8379},[58],[15,8381],{"className":8382,"style":299},[62],[15,8384,45],{"className":8385,"style":82},[67,68],"、",[15,8388,8390,8416],{"className":8389,"translate":19},[18],[15,8391,8393],{"className":8392},[23],[25,8394,8395],{"xmlns":27},[29,8396,8397,8413],{},[32,8398,8399,8401,8403,8405,8407,8409,8411],{},[35,8400,45],{},[39,8402,4423],{},[238,8404,240],{},[238,8406,240],{},[238,8408,240],{},[39,8410,236],{},[35,8412,4205],{},[47,8414,8415],{"encoding":49},"Y \\not\\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp Z",[15,8417,8419,8473,8485],{"className":8418,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,8420,8422,8425,8428,8431,8458,8461,8464,8467,8470],{"className":8421},[58],[15,8423],{"className":8424,"style":4446},[62],[15,8426,45],{"className":8427,"style":82},[67,68],[15,8429],{"className":8430,"style":199},[77],[15,8432,8434],{"className":8433},[203],[15,8435,8437],{"className":8436},[67,4459],[15,8438,8440],{"className":8439},[4463],[15,8441,8443,8446,8455],{"className":8442},[4467],[15,8444],{"className":8445,"style":4446},[62],[15,8447,8449],{"className":8448},[4474],[15,8450,8452],{"className":8451},[67],[15,8453,4481],{"className":8454},[203],[15,8456],{"className":8457},[4485],[15,8459],{"className":8460},[77,4489],[15,8462,236],{"className":8463},[203],[15,8465],{"className":8466,"style":274},[77],[15,8468],{"className":8469,"style":274},[77],[15,8471],{"className":8472,"style":274},[77],[15,8474,8476,8479,8482],{"className":8475},[58],[15,8477],{"className":8478,"style":261},[62],[15,8480,236],{"className":8481},[203],[15,8483],{"className":8484,"style":199},[77],[15,8486,8488,8491],{"className":8487},[58],[15,8489],{"className":8490,"style":299},[62],[15,8492,4205],{"className":8493,"style":4234},[67,68],[15,8495,8497,8527],{"className":8496,"translate":19},[18],[15,8498,8500],{"className":8499},[23],[25,8501,8502],{"xmlns":27},[29,8503,8504,8524],{},[32,8505,8506,8508,8510,8512,8514,8516,8518,8520,8522],{},[35,8507,37],{},[39,8509,236],{},[238,8511,240],{},[238,8513,240],{},[238,8515,240],{},[39,8517,236],{},[35,8519,4205],{},[39,8521,170],{},[35,8523,45],{},[47,8525,8526],{"encoding":49},"X \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp Z \\mid Y",[15,8528,8530,8554,8566,8584],{"className":8529,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,8531,8533,8536,8539,8542,8545,8548,8551],{"className":8532},[58],[15,8534],{"className":8535,"style":261},[62],[15,8537,37],{"className":8538,"style":69},[67,68],[15,8540],{"className":8541,"style":199},[77],[15,8543,236],{"className":8544},[203],[15,8546],{"className":8547,"style":274},[77],[15,8549],{"className":8550,"style":274},[77],[15,8552],{"className":8553,"style":274},[77],[15,8555,8557,8560,8563],{"className":8556},[58],[15,8558],{"className":8559,"style":261},[62],[15,8561,236],{"className":8562},[203],[15,8564],{"className":8565,"style":199},[77],[15,8567,8569,8572,8575,8578,8581],{"className":8568},[58],[15,8570],{"className":8571,"style":124},[62],[15,8573,4205],{"className":8574,"style":4234},[67,68],[15,8576],{"className":8577,"style":199},[77],[15,8579,170],{"className":8580},[203],[15,8582],{"className":8583,"style":199},[77],[15,8585,8587,8590],{"className":8586},[58],[15,8588],{"className":8589,"style":299},[62],[15,8591,45],{"className":8592,"style":82},[67,68],"，因此在任何与之相容的分布下，三者产生的数据在统计上无法区分。而第四个图，即对撞结构 ",[15,8595,8597,8619],{"className":8596,"translate":19},[18],[15,8598,8600],{"className":8599},[23],[25,8601,8602],{"xmlns":27},[29,8603,8604,8616],{},[32,8605,8606,8608,8610,8612,8614],{},[35,8607,37],{},[39,8609,1844],{},[35,8611,45],{},[39,8613,4876],{},[35,8615,4205],{},[47,8617,8618],{"encoding":49},"X \\to Y \\leftarrow Z",[15,8620,8622,8640,8658],{"className":8621,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,8623,8625,8628,8631,8634,8637],{"className":8624},[58],[15,8626],{"className":8627,"style":299},[62],[15,8629,37],{"className":8630,"style":69},[67,68],[15,8632],{"className":8633,"style":199},[77],[15,8635,1844],{"className":8636},[203],[15,8638],{"className":8639,"style":199},[77],[15,8641,8643,8646,8649,8652,8655],{"className":8642},[58],[15,8644],{"className":8645,"style":299},[62],[15,8647,45],{"className":8648,"style":82},[67,68],[15,8650],{"className":8651,"style":199},[77],[15,8653,4876],{"className":8654},[203],[15,8656],{"className":8657,"style":199},[77],[15,8659,8661,8664],{"className":8660},[58],[15,8662],{"className":8663,"style":299},[62],[15,8665,4205],{"className":8666,"style":4234},[67,68],"，蕴含的是边际独立 ",[15,8669,8671,8696],{"className":8670,"translate":19},[18],[15,8672,8674],{"className":8673},[23],[25,8675,8676],{"xmlns":27},[29,8677,8678,8694],{},[32,8679,8680,8682,8684,8686,8688,8690,8692],{},[35,8681,37],{},[39,8683,236],{},[238,8685,240],{},[238,8687,240],{},[238,8689,240],{},[39,8691,236],{},[35,8693,45],{},[47,8695,251],{"encoding":49},[15,8697,8699,8723,8735],{"className":8698,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,8700,8702,8705,8708,8711,8714,8717,8720],{"className":8701},[58],[15,8703],{"className":8704,"style":261},[62],[15,8706,37],{"className":8707,"style":69},[67,68],[15,8709],{"className":8710,"style":199},[77],[15,8712,236],{"className":8713},[203],[15,8715],{"className":8716,"style":274},[77],[15,8718],{"className":8719,"style":274},[77],[15,8721],{"className":8722,"style":274},[77],[15,8724,8726,8729,8732],{"className":8725},[58],[15,8727],{"className":8728,"style":261},[62],[15,8730,236],{"className":8731},[203],[15,8733],{"className":8734,"style":199},[77],[15,8736,8738,8741],{"className":8737},[58],[15,8739],{"className":8740,"style":299},[62],[15,8742,45],{"className":8743,"style":82},[67,68],"，与前三个不同，因此",[305,8746,8747],{},"它可以被数据认出来",[11,8749,8750,8751,8754,8755,2247],{},"这一观察可以推广为一个一般结论：",[305,8752,8753],{},"观测分布唯一确定的是图的骨架（skeleton，忽略方向的边集）以及所有的对撞结构（v-结构），其余边的方向原则上不可识别","。这解释了为什么因果发现算法的输出往往不是一个 DAG，而是一张带有部分无向边的",[305,8756,8757],{},"本质图（CPDAG，亦称 pattern）",[11,8759,8760],{},"要在此基础上进一步定向，必须引入超出分布本身的假设，主要有三条路线：",[507,8762,8763,8822,8828],{},[510,8764,8765,8768,8769,8821],{},[305,8766,8767],{},"约束式方法（constraint-based）","：以忠实性假设为前提，反复检验条件独立关系并据此定向，代表算法为 PC。若允许存在未观测的混杂变量，则须改用 FCI，其输出（PAG）以双向边 ",[15,8770,8772,8791],{"className":8771,"translate":19},[18],[15,8773,8775],{"className":8774},[23],[25,8776,8777],{"xmlns":27},[29,8778,8779,8788],{},[32,8780,8781,8783,8786],{},[35,8782,37],{},[39,8784,8785],{},"↔",[35,8787,45],{},[47,8789,8790],{"encoding":49},"X \\leftrightarrow Y",[15,8792,8794,8812],{"className":8793,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,8795,8797,8800,8803,8806,8809],{"className":8796},[58],[15,8798],{"className":8799,"style":299},[62],[15,8801,37],{"className":8802,"style":69},[67,68],[15,8804],{"className":8805,"style":199},[77],[15,8807,8785],{"className":8808},[203],[15,8810],{"className":8811,"style":199},[77],[15,8813,8815,8818],{"className":8814},[58],[15,8816],{"className":8817,"style":299},[62],[15,8819,45],{"className":8820,"style":82},[67,68]," 显式标示「二者之间存在未观测的共同原因」。",[510,8823,8824,8827],{},[305,8825,8826],{},"评分式方法（score-based）","：为每个 DAG 或等价类定义评分（如 BIC、贝叶斯后验），在等价类空间上做搜索，代表算法为 GES。它与约束式方法一样，仍然只能恢复到马尔可夫等价类。",[510,8829,8830,8833,8834,3094,8926,9003,9004,9055,9056,9106,9107,9110,9111,9139],{},[305,8831,8832],{},"函数式方法（functional \u002F additive noise）","：假设结构方程取加性噪声形式 ",[15,8835,8837,8868],{"className":8836,"translate":19},[18],[15,8838,8840],{"className":8839},[23],[25,8841,8842],{"xmlns":27},[29,8843,8844,8865],{},[32,8845,8846,8848,8851,8853,8855,8857,8859,8861,8863],{},[35,8847,45],{},[39,8849,8850],{},":",[39,8852,602],{},[35,8854,5717],{},[39,8856,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,8858,37],{},[39,8860,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,8862,2890],{},[35,8864,2454],{},[47,8866,8867],{"encoding":49},"Y := f(X) + U",[15,8869,8871,8890,8917],{"className":8870,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,8872,8874,8877,8880,8883,8887],{"className":8873},[58],[15,8875],{"className":8876,"style":299},[62],[15,8878,45],{"className":8879,"style":82},[67,68],[15,8881],{"className":8882,"style":199},[77],[15,8884,8886],{"className":8885},[203],":=",[15,8888],{"className":8889,"style":199},[77],[15,8891,8893,8896,8899,8902,8905,8908,8911,8914],{"className":8892},[58],[15,8894],{"className":8895,"style":124},[62],[15,8897,5717],{"className":8898,"style":5765},[67,68],[15,8900,102],{"className":8901},[132],[15,8903,37],{"className":8904,"style":69},[67,68],[15,8906,111],{"className":8907},[148],[15,8909],{"className":8910,"style":82},[77],[15,8912,2890],{"className":8913},[1646],[15,8915],{"className":8916,"style":82},[77],[15,8918,8920,8923],{"className":8919},[58],[15,8921],{"className":8922,"style":299},[62],[15,8924,2454],{"className":8925,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,8927,8929,8955],{"className":8928,"translate":19},[18],[15,8930,8932],{"className":8931},[23],[25,8933,8934],{"xmlns":27},[29,8935,8936,8952],{},[32,8937,8938,8940,8942,8944,8946,8948,8950],{},[35,8939,37],{},[39,8941,236],{},[238,8943,240],{},[238,8945,240],{},[238,8947,240],{},[39,8949,236],{},[35,8951,2454],{},[47,8953,8954],{"encoding":49},"X \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp U",[15,8956,8958,8982,8994],{"className":8957,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,8959,8961,8964,8967,8970,8973,8976,8979],{"className":8960},[58],[15,8962],{"className":8963,"style":261},[62],[15,8965,37],{"className":8966,"style":69},[67,68],[15,8968],{"className":8969,"style":199},[77],[15,8971,236],{"className":8972},[203],[15,8974],{"className":8975,"style":274},[77],[15,8977],{"className":8978,"style":274},[77],[15,8980],{"className":8981,"style":274},[77],[15,8983,8985,8988,8991],{"className":8984},[58],[15,8986],{"className":8987,"style":261},[62],[15,8989,236],{"className":8990},[203],[15,8992],{"className":8993,"style":199},[77],[15,8995,8997,9000],{"className":8996},[58],[15,8998],{"className":8999,"style":299},[62],[15,9001,2454],{"className":9002,"style":2566},[67,68],"。此时「",[15,9005,9007,9025],{"className":9006,"translate":19},[18],[15,9008,9010],{"className":9009},[23],[25,9011,9012],{"xmlns":27},[29,9013,9014,9022],{},[32,9015,9016,9018,9020],{},[35,9017,37],{},[39,9019,1844],{},[35,9021,45],{},[47,9023,9024],{"encoding":49},"X \\to Y",[15,9026,9028,9046],{"className":9027,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,9029,9031,9034,9037,9040,9043],{"className":9030},[58],[15,9032],{"className":9033,"style":299},[62],[15,9035,37],{"className":9036,"style":69},[67,68],[15,9038],{"className":9039,"style":199},[77],[15,9041,1844],{"className":9042},[203],[15,9044],{"className":9045,"style":199},[77],[15,9047,9049,9052],{"className":9048},[58],[15,9050],{"className":9051,"style":299},[62],[15,9053,45],{"className":9054,"style":82},[67,68],"」与「",[15,9057,9059,9076],{"className":9058,"translate":19},[18],[15,9060,9062],{"className":9061},[23],[25,9063,9064],{"xmlns":27},[29,9065,9066,9074],{},[32,9067,9068,9070,9072],{},[35,9069,45],{},[39,9071,1844],{},[35,9073,37],{},[47,9075,8000],{"encoding":49},[15,9077,9079,9097],{"className":9078,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,9080,9082,9085,9088,9091,9094],{"className":9081},[58],[15,9083],{"className":9084,"style":299},[62],[15,9086,45],{"className":9087,"style":82},[67,68],[15,9089],{"className":9090,"style":199},[77],[15,9092,1844],{"className":9093},[203],[15,9095],{"className":9096,"style":199},[77],[15,9098,9100,9103],{"className":9099},[58],[15,9101],{"className":9102,"style":299},[62],[15,9104,37],{"className":9105,"style":69},[67,68],"」两个模型一般",[305,9108,9109],{},"不能互相拟合","——反向模型的噪声项会与输入相关，除非 ",[15,9112,9114,9127],{"className":9113,"translate":19},[18],[15,9115,9117],{"className":9116},[23],[25,9118,9119],{"xmlns":27},[29,9120,9121,9125],{},[32,9122,9123],{},[35,9124,5717],{},[47,9126,5717],{"encoding":49},[15,9128,9130],{"className":9129,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,9131,9133,9136],{"className":9132},[58],[15,9134],{"className":9135,"style":4446},[62],[15,9137,5717],{"className":9138,"style":5765},[67,68]," 为线性且噪声为高斯。于是方向变得可识别，线性非高斯情形下即得到 LiNGAM 家族算法。代价是引入了比忠实性更强的函数类假设，且判定结果对该假设相当敏感。",[11,9141,9142,9143,9146],{},"综上，因果发现把「边从哪来」这一问题从纯粹的先验判断，部分地转化为「在给定假设下可被数据检验」的问题；但",[305,9144,9145],{},"这些假设本身（忠实性、无隐变量、函数类）仍然无法从数据中获得","。这与本文的核心立场一致：数据只能在结构给定的前提下发挥作用，结构本身必须来自数据之外。",[1314,9148,9150],{"title":9149},"例 1.5",[11,9151,9152,9153,431,9181,9209,9210,431,9238,9266,9267,9344,9345,9417],{},"若已知 ",[15,9154,9156,9169],{"className":9155,"translate":19},[18],[15,9157,9159],{"className":9158},[23],[25,9160,9161],{"xmlns":27},[29,9162,9163,9167],{},[32,9164,9165],{},[35,9166,37],{},[47,9168,37],{"encoding":49},[15,9170,9172],{"className":9171,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,9173,9175,9178],{"className":9174},[58],[15,9176],{"className":9177,"style":299},[62],[15,9179,37],{"className":9180,"style":69},[67,68],[15,9182,9184,9197],{"className":9183,"translate":19},[18],[15,9185,9187],{"className":9186},[23],[25,9188,9189],{"xmlns":27},[29,9190,9191,9195],{},[32,9192,9193],{},[35,9194,45],{},[47,9196,45],{"encoding":49},[15,9198,9200],{"className":9199,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,9201,9203,9206],{"className":9202},[58],[15,9204],{"className":9205,"style":299},[62],[15,9207,45],{"className":9208,"style":82},[67,68]," 依赖、",[15,9211,9213,9226],{"className":9212,"translate":19},[18],[15,9214,9216],{"className":9215},[23],[25,9217,9218],{"xmlns":27},[29,9219,9220,9224],{},[32,9221,9222],{},[35,9223,45],{},[47,9225,45],{"encoding":49},[15,9227,9229],{"className":9228,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,9230,9232,9235],{"className":9231},[58],[15,9233],{"className":9234,"style":299},[62],[15,9236,45],{"className":9237,"style":82},[67,68],[15,9239,9241,9254],{"className":9240,"translate":19},[18],[15,9242,9244],{"className":9243},[23],[25,9245,9246],{"xmlns":27},[29,9247,9248,9252],{},[32,9249,9250],{},[35,9251,4205],{},[47,9253,4205],{"encoding":49},[15,9255,9257],{"className":9256,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,9258,9260,9263],{"className":9259},[58],[15,9261],{"className":9262,"style":299},[62],[15,9264,4205],{"className":9265,"style":4234},[67,68]," 依赖，而又观测到 ",[15,9268,9270,9296],{"className":9269,"translate":19},[18],[15,9271,9273],{"className":9272},[23],[25,9274,9275],{"xmlns":27},[29,9276,9277,9293],{},[32,9278,9279,9281,9283,9285,9287,9289,9291],{},[35,9280,37],{},[39,9282,236],{},[238,9284,240],{},[238,9286,240],{},[238,9288,240],{},[39,9290,236],{},[35,9292,4205],{},[47,9294,9295],{"encoding":49},"X \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp Z",[15,9297,9299,9323,9335],{"className":9298,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,9300,9302,9305,9308,9311,9314,9317,9320],{"className":9301},[58],[15,9303],{"className":9304,"style":261},[62],[15,9306,37],{"className":9307,"style":69},[67,68],[15,9309],{"className":9310,"style":199},[77],[15,9312,236],{"className":9313},[203],[15,9315],{"className":9316,"style":274},[77],[15,9318],{"className":9319,"style":274},[77],[15,9321],{"className":9322,"style":274},[77],[15,9324,9326,9329,9332],{"className":9325},[58],[15,9327],{"className":9328,"style":261},[62],[15,9330,236],{"className":9331},[203],[15,9333],{"className":9334,"style":199},[77],[15,9336,9338,9341],{"className":9337},[58],[15,9339],{"className":9340,"style":299},[62],[15,9342,4205],{"className":9343,"style":4234},[67,68],"，则与之相容的三节点结构只剩下对撞 ",[15,9346,9348,9369],{"className":9347,"translate":19},[18],[15,9349,9351],{"className":9350},[23],[25,9352,9353],{"xmlns":27},[29,9354,9355,9367],{},[32,9356,9357,9359,9361,9363,9365],{},[35,9358,37],{},[39,9360,1844],{},[35,9362,45],{},[39,9364,4876],{},[35,9366,4205],{},[47,9368,8618],{"encoding":49},[15,9370,9372,9390,9408],{"className":9371,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,9373,9375,9378,9381,9384,9387],{"className":9374},[58],[15,9376],{"className":9377,"style":299},[62],[15,9379,37],{"className":9380,"style":69},[67,68],[15,9382],{"className":9383,"style":199},[77],[15,9385,1844],{"className":9386},[203],[15,9388],{"className":9389,"style":199},[77],[15,9391,9393,9396,9399,9402,9405],{"className":9392},[58],[15,9394],{"className":9395,"style":299},[62],[15,9397,45],{"className":9398,"style":82},[67,68],[15,9400],{"className":9401,"style":199},[77],[15,9403,4876],{"className":9404},[203],[15,9406],{"className":9407,"style":199},[77],[15,9409,9411,9414],{"className":9410},[58],[15,9412],{"className":9413,"style":299},[62],[15,9415,4205],{"className":9416,"style":4234},[67,68],"。这是因果发现中最基本的一条定向规则，也是「共同原因」与「因果链」两族结构唯一能被数据区分开的地方。",[1305,9419,9420],{"id":9420},"结构因果模型",[11,9422,9423,9424,9427],{},"因果图给出的是变量间依赖关系的",[305,9425,9426],{},"定性拓扑","，尚不包含足以计算具体数值的信息。要将因果图提升为可定量计算的生成模型，需要引入结构因果模型。",[1309,9429,9431],{"id":9430},"_21-scm-的形式化定义","2.1 SCM 的形式化定义",[1314,9433,9435,9554],{"title":9434},"定义 2.1（结构因果模型）",[11,9436,9437,9438,9553],{},"一个结构因果模型是一个四元组\n",[15,9439,9441,9483],{"className":9440,"translate":19},[18],[15,9442,9444],{"className":9443},[23],[25,9445,9446],{"xmlns":27},[29,9447,9448,9480],{},[32,9449,9450,9453,9455,9457,9459,9461,9463,9465,9468,9470,9472,9474,9476,9478],{},[35,9451,9452],{},"M",[39,9454,602],{},[39,9456,2441],{"stretchy":101},[35,9458,2454],{},[39,9460,42],{"separator":41},[35,9462,1341],{},[39,9464,42],{"separator":41},[35,9466,9467],{},"F",[39,9469,42],{"separator":41},[35,9471,98],{},[39,9473,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,9475,2454],{},[39,9477,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,9479,2489],{"stretchy":101},[47,9481,9482],{"encoding":49},"M = \\langle U, V, F, P(U) \\rangle",[15,9484,9486,9504],{"className":9485,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,9487,9489,9492,9495,9498,9501],{"className":9488},[58],[15,9490],{"className":9491,"style":299},[62],[15,9493,9452],{"className":9494,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,9496],{"className":9497,"style":199},[77],[15,9499,602],{"className":9500},[203],[15,9502],{"className":9503,"style":199},[77],[15,9505,9507,9510,9513,9516,9519,9522,9525,9528,9531,9534,9537,9540,9543,9546,9549],{"className":9506},[58],[15,9508],{"className":9509,"style":124},[62],[15,9511,2441],{"className":9512},[132],[15,9514,2454],{"className":9515,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,9517,42],{"className":9518},[73],[15,9520],{"className":9521,"style":78},[77],[15,9523,1341],{"className":9524,"style":82},[67,68],[15,9526,42],{"className":9527},[73],[15,9529],{"className":9530,"style":78},[77],[15,9532,9467],{"className":9533,"style":128},[67,68],[15,9535,42],{"className":9536},[73],[15,9538],{"className":9539,"style":78},[77],[15,9541,98],{"className":9542,"style":128},[67,68],[15,9544,102],{"className":9545},[132],[15,9547,2454],{"className":9548,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,9550,9552],{"className":9551},[148],")⟩","\n其中：",[507,9555,9556,9736,9913,10965],{},[510,9557,9558,9731,9732,9735],{},[15,9559,9561,9600],{"className":9560,"translate":19},[18],[15,9562,9564],{"className":9563},[23],[25,9565,9566],{"xmlns":27},[29,9567,9568,9597],{},[32,9569,9570,9572,9574,9576,9582,9584,9586,9588,9595],{},[35,9571,2454],{},[39,9573,602],{},[39,9575,1417],{"stretchy":101},[863,9577,9578,9580],{},[35,9579,2454],{},[1423,9581,1425],{},[39,9583,42],{"separator":41},[39,9585,1430],{},[39,9587,42],{"separator":41},[863,9589,9590,9592],{},[35,9591,2454],{},[35,9593,9594],{},"m",[39,9596,1442],{"stretchy":101},[47,9598,9599],{"encoding":49},"U = \\{U_1, \\dots, U_m\\}",[15,9601,9603,9621],{"className":9602,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,9604,9606,9609,9612,9615,9618],{"className":9605},[58],[15,9607],{"className":9608,"style":299},[62],[15,9610,2454],{"className":9611,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,9613],{"className":9614,"style":199},[77],[15,9616,602],{"className":9617},[203],[15,9619],{"className":9620,"style":199},[77],[15,9622,9624,9627,9630,9670,9673,9676,9679,9682,9685,9688,9728],{"className":9623},[58],[15,9625],{"className":9626,"style":124},[62],[15,9628,1417],{"className":9629},[132],[15,9631,9633,9636],{"className":9632},[67],[15,9634,2454],{"className":9635,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,9637,9639],{"className":9638},[918],[15,9640,9642,9662],{"className":9641},[922,923],[15,9643,9645,9659],{"className":9644},[927],[15,9646,9648],{"className":9647,"style":1494},[931],[15,9649,9650,9653],{"style":2581},[15,9651],{"className":9652,"style":940},[939],[15,9654,9656],{"className":9655},[944,945,946,947],[15,9657,1425],{"className":9658},[67,947],[15,9660,955],{"className":9661},[954],[15,9663,9665],{"className":9664},[927],[15,9666,9668],{"className":9667,"style":962},[931],[15,9669],{},[15,9671,42],{"className":9672},[73],[15,9674],{"className":9675,"style":78},[77],[15,9677,1430],{"className":9678},[1527],[15,9680],{"className":9681,"style":78},[77],[15,9683,42],{"className":9684},[73],[15,9686],{"className":9687,"style":78},[77],[15,9689,9691,9694],{"className":9690},[67],[15,9692,2454],{"className":9693,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,9695,9697],{"className":9696},[918],[15,9698,9700,9720],{"className":9699},[922,923],[15,9701,9703,9717],{"className":9702},[927],[15,9704,9706],{"className":9705,"style":932},[931],[15,9707,9708,9711],{"style":2581},[15,9709],{"className":9710,"style":940},[939],[15,9712,9714],{"className":9713},[944,945,946,947],[15,9715,9594],{"className":9716},[67,68,947],[15,9718,955],{"className":9719},[954],[15,9721,9723],{"className":9722},[927],[15,9724,9726],{"className":9725,"style":962},[931],[15,9727],{},[15,9729,1442],{"className":9730},[148]," 是 ",[305,9733,9734],{},"外生变量（exogenous variables）"," 集合，代表模型边界之外、不由模型内部机制解释的随机扰动源；",[510,9737,9738,9731,9909,9912],{},[15,9739,9741,9778],{"className":9740,"translate":19},[18],[15,9742,9744],{"className":9743},[23],[25,9745,9746],{"xmlns":27},[29,9747,9748,9776],{},[32,9749,9750,9752,9754,9756,9762,9764,9766,9768,9774],{},[35,9751,1341],{},[39,9753,602],{},[39,9755,1417],{"stretchy":101},[863,9757,9758,9760],{},[35,9759,1341],{},[1423,9761,1425],{},[39,9763,42],{"separator":41},[39,9765,1430],{},[39,9767,42],{"separator":41},[863,9769,9770,9772],{},[35,9771,1341],{},[35,9773,1439],{},[39,9775,1442],{"stretchy":101},[47,9777,1445],{"encoding":49},[15,9779,9781,9799],{"className":9780,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,9782,9784,9787,9790,9793,9796],{"className":9783},[58],[15,9785],{"className":9786,"style":299},[62],[15,9788,1341],{"className":9789,"style":82},[67,68],[15,9791],{"className":9792,"style":199},[77],[15,9794,602],{"className":9795},[203],[15,9797],{"className":9798,"style":199},[77],[15,9800,9802,9805,9808,9848,9851,9854,9857,9860,9863,9866,9906],{"className":9801},[58],[15,9803],{"className":9804,"style":124},[62],[15,9806,1417],{"className":9807},[132],[15,9809,9811,9814],{"className":9810},[67],[15,9812,1341],{"className":9813,"style":82},[67,68],[15,9815,9817],{"className":9816},[918],[15,9818,9820,9840],{"className":9819},[922,923],[15,9821,9823,9837],{"className":9822},[927],[15,9824,9826],{"className":9825,"style":1494},[931],[15,9827,9828,9831],{"style":1497},[15,9829],{"className":9830,"style":940},[939],[15,9832,9834],{"className":9833},[944,945,946,947],[15,9835,1425],{"className":9836},[67,947],[15,9838,955],{"className":9839},[954],[15,9841,9843],{"className":9842},[927],[15,9844,9846],{"className":9845,"style":962},[931],[15,9847],{},[15,9849,42],{"className":9850},[73],[15,9852],{"className":9853,"style":78},[77],[15,9855,1430],{"className":9856},[1527],[15,9858],{"className":9859,"style":78},[77],[15,9861,42],{"className":9862},[73],[15,9864],{"className":9865,"style":78},[77],[15,9867,9869,9872],{"className":9868},[67],[15,9870,1341],{"className":9871,"style":82},[67,68],[15,9873,9875],{"className":9874},[918],[15,9876,9878,9898],{"className":9877},[922,923],[15,9879,9881,9895],{"className":9880},[927],[15,9882,9884],{"className":9883,"style":932},[931],[15,9885,9886,9889],{"style":1497},[15,9887],{"className":9888,"style":940},[939],[15,9890,9892],{"className":9891},[944,945,946,947],[15,9893,1439],{"className":9894},[67,68,947],[15,9896,955],{"className":9897},[954],[15,9899,9901],{"className":9900},[927],[15,9902,9904],{"className":9903,"style":962},[931],[15,9905],{},[15,9907,1442],{"className":9908},[148],[305,9910,9911],{},"内生变量（endogenous variables）"," 集合，是模型所关心、由模型内部机制决定的变量；",[510,9914,9915,9731,10088,10091,10092,10162,10163,10583,10584,10661,10662,10731,10732,10801,10802,10894,10895,10964],{},[15,9916,9918,9956],{"className":9917,"translate":19},[18],[15,9919,9921],{"className":9920},[23],[25,9922,9923],{"xmlns":27},[29,9924,9925,9953],{},[32,9926,9927,9929,9931,9933,9939,9941,9943,9945,9951],{},[35,9928,9467],{},[39,9930,602],{},[39,9932,1417],{"stretchy":101},[863,9934,9935,9937],{},[35,9936,5717],{},[1423,9938,1425],{},[39,9940,42],{"separator":41},[39,9942,1430],{},[39,9944,42],{"separator":41},[863,9946,9947,9949],{},[35,9948,5717],{},[35,9950,1439],{},[39,9952,1442],{"stretchy":101},[47,9954,9955],{"encoding":49},"F = \\{f_1, \\dots, f_n\\}",[15,9957,9959,9977],{"className":9958,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,9960,9962,9965,9968,9971,9974],{"className":9961},[58],[15,9963],{"className":9964,"style":299},[62],[15,9966,9467],{"className":9967,"style":128},[67,68],[15,9969],{"className":9970,"style":199},[77],[15,9972,602],{"className":9973},[203],[15,9975],{"className":9976,"style":199},[77],[15,9978,9980,9983,9986,10027,10030,10033,10036,10039,10042,10045,10085],{"className":9979},[58],[15,9981],{"className":9982,"style":124},[62],[15,9984,1417],{"className":9985},[132],[15,9987,9989,9992],{"className":9988},[67],[15,9990,5717],{"className":9991,"style":5765},[67,68],[15,9993,9995],{"className":9994},[918],[15,9996,9998,10019],{"className":9997},[922,923],[15,9999,10001,10016],{"className":10000},[927],[15,10002,10004],{"className":10003,"style":1494},[931],[15,10005,10007,10010],{"style":10006},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.1076em;margin-right:0.05em;",[15,10008],{"className":10009,"style":940},[939],[15,10011,10013],{"className":10012},[944,945,946,947],[15,10014,1425],{"className":10015},[67,947],[15,10017,955],{"className":10018},[954],[15,10020,10022],{"className":10021},[927],[15,10023,10025],{"className":10024,"style":962},[931],[15,10026],{},[15,10028,42],{"className":10029},[73],[15,10031],{"className":10032,"style":78},[77],[15,10034,1430],{"className":10035},[1527],[15,10037],{"className":10038,"style":78},[77],[15,10040,42],{"className":10041},[73],[15,10043],{"className":10044,"style":78},[77],[15,10046,10048,10051],{"className":10047},[67],[15,10049,5717],{"className":10050,"style":5765},[67,68],[15,10052,10054],{"className":10053},[918],[15,10055,10057,10077],{"className":10056},[922,923],[15,10058,10060,10074],{"className":10059},[927],[15,10061,10063],{"className":10062,"style":932},[931],[15,10064,10065,10068],{"style":10006},[15,10066],{"className":10067,"style":940},[939],[15,10069,10071],{"className":10070},[944,945,946,947],[15,10072,1439],{"className":10073},[67,68,947],[15,10075,955],{"className":10076},[954],[15,10078,10080],{"className":10079},[927],[15,10081,10083],{"className":10082,"style":962},[931],[15,10084],{},[15,10086,1442],{"className":10087},[148],[305,10089,10090],{},"结构方程（structural equations）"," 集合，每个 ",[15,10093,10095,10113],{"className":10094,"translate":19},[18],[15,10096,10098],{"className":10097},[23],[25,10099,10100],{"xmlns":27},[29,10101,10102,10110],{},[32,10103,10104],{},[863,10105,10106,10108],{},[35,10107,5717],{},[35,10109,1680],{},[47,10111,10112],{"encoding":49},"f_i",[15,10114,10116],{"className":10115,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,10117,10119,10122],{"className":10118},[58],[15,10120],{"className":10121,"style":4446},[62],[15,10123,10125,10128],{"className":10124},[67],[15,10126,5717],{"className":10127,"style":5765},[67,68],[15,10129,10131],{"className":10130},[918],[15,10132,10134,10154],{"className":10133},[922,923],[15,10135,10137,10151],{"className":10136},[927],[15,10138,10140],{"className":10139,"style":1731},[931],[15,10141,10142,10145],{"style":10006},[15,10143],{"className":10144,"style":940},[939],[15,10146,10148],{"className":10147},[944,945,946,947],[15,10149,1680],{"className":10150},[67,68,947],[15,10152,955],{"className":10153},[954],[15,10155,10157],{"className":10156},[927],[15,10158,10160],{"className":10159,"style":962},[931],[15,10161],{}," 是一个确定性函数\n",[15,10164,10166,10249],{"className":10165,"translate":19},[18],[15,10167,10169],{"className":10168},[23],[25,10170,10171],{"xmlns":27},[29,10172,10173,10246],{},[32,10174,10175,10181,10183,10185,10191,10193,10204,10206,10212,10214,10216,10219,10229,10231,10233,10236,10238,10244],{},[863,10176,10177,10179],{},[35,10178,1341],{},[35,10180,1680],{},[39,10182,8850],{},[39,10184,602],{},[863,10186,10187,10189],{},[35,10188,5717],{},[35,10190,1680],{},[39,10192,102],{"stretchy":101},[863,10194,10195,10202],{},[32,10196,10197,10199],{},[35,10198,98],{"mathvariant":878},[35,10200,10201],{"mathvariant":878},"a",[35,10203,1680],{},[39,10205,42],{"separator":41},[863,10207,10208,10210],{},[35,10209,2454],{},[35,10211,1680],{},[39,10213,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,10215,42],{"separator":41},[77,10217],{"width":10218},"2em",[863,10220,10221,10227],{},[32,10222,10223,10225],{},[35,10224,98],{"mathvariant":878},[35,10226,10201],{"mathvariant":878},[35,10228,1680],{},[39,10230,1597],{},[35,10232,1341],{},[39,10234,10235],{},"∖",[39,10237,1417],{"stretchy":101},[863,10239,10240,10242],{},[35,10241,1341],{},[35,10243,1680],{},[39,10245,1442],{"stretchy":101},[47,10247,10248],{"encoding":49},"V_i := f_i(\\mathrm{Pa}_i, U_i), \\qquad \\mathrm{Pa}_i \\subseteq V \\setminus \\{V_i\\}",[15,10250,10252,10307,10513,10531],{"className":10251,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,10253,10255,10258,10298,10301,10304],{"className":10254},[58],[15,10256],{"className":10257,"style":1863},[62],[15,10259,10261,10264],{"className":10260},[67],[15,10262,1341],{"className":10263,"style":82},[67,68],[15,10265,10267],{"className":10266},[918],[15,10268,10270,10290],{"className":10269},[922,923],[15,10271,10273,10287],{"className":10272},[927],[15,10274,10276],{"className":10275,"style":1731},[931],[15,10277,10278,10281],{"style":1497},[15,10279],{"className":10280,"style":940},[939],[15,10282,10284],{"className":10283},[944,945,946,947],[15,10285,1680],{"className":10286},[67,68,947],[15,10288,955],{"className":10289},[954],[15,10291,10293],{"className":10292},[927],[15,10294,10296],{"className":10295,"style":962},[931],[15,10297],{},[15,10299],{"className":10300,"style":199},[77],[15,10302,8886],{"className":10303},[203],[15,10305],{"className":10306,"style":199},[77],[15,10308,10310,10313,10353,10356,10402,10405,10408,10448,10451,10454,10458,10461,10504,10507,10510],{"className":10309},[58],[15,10311],{"className":10312,"style":124},[62],[15,10314,10316,10319],{"className":10315},[67],[15,10317,5717],{"className":10318,"style":5765},[67,68],[15,10320,10322],{"className":10321},[918],[15,10323,10325,10345],{"className":10324},[922,923],[15,10326,10328,10342],{"className":10327},[927],[15,10329,10331],{"className":10330,"style":1731},[931],[15,10332,10333,10336],{"style":10006},[15,10334],{"className":10335,"style":940},[939],[15,10337,10339],{"className":10338},[944,945,946,947],[15,10340,1680],{"className":10341},[67,68,947],[15,10343,955],{"className":10344},[954],[15,10346,10348],{"className":10347},[927],[15,10349,10351],{"className":10350,"style":962},[931],[15,10352],{},[15,10354,102],{"className":10355},[132],[15,10357,10359,10367],{"className":10358},[67],[15,10360,10362],{"className":10361},[67],[15,10363,10366],{"className":10364},[67,10365],"mathrm","Pa",[15,10368,10370],{"className":10369},[918],[15,10371,10373,10394],{"className":10372},[922,923],[15,10374,10376,10391],{"className":10375},[927],[15,10377,10379],{"className":10378,"style":1731},[931],[15,10380,10382,10385],{"style":10381},"top:-2.55em;margin-right:0.05em;",[15,10383],{"className":10384,"style":940},[939],[15,10386,10388],{"className":10387},[944,945,946,947],[15,10389,1680],{"className":10390},[67,68,947],[15,10392,955],{"className":10393},[954],[15,10395,10397],{"className":10396},[927],[15,10398,10400],{"className":10399,"style":962},[931],[15,10401],{},[15,10403,42],{"className":10404},[73],[15,10406],{"className":10407,"style":78},[77],[15,10409,10411,10414],{"className":10410},[67],[15,10412,2454],{"className":10413,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,10415,10417],{"className":10416},[918],[15,10418,10420,10440],{"className":10419},[922,923],[15,10421,10423,10437],{"className":10422},[927],[15,10424,10426],{"className":10425,"style":1731},[931],[15,10427,10428,10431],{"style":2581},[15,10429],{"className":10430,"style":940},[939],[15,10432,10434],{"className":10433},[944,945,946,947],[15,10435,1680],{"className":10436},[67,68,947],[15,10438,955],{"className":10439},[954],[15,10441,10443],{"className":10442},[927],[15,10444,10446],{"className":10445,"style":962},[931],[15,10447],{},[15,10449,111],{"className":10450},[148],[15,10452,42],{"className":10453},[73],[15,10455],{"className":10456,"style":10457},[77],"margin-right:2em;",[15,10459],{"className":10460,"style":78},[77],[15,10462,10464,10470],{"className":10463},[67],[15,10465,10467],{"className":10466},[67],[15,10468,10366],{"className":10469},[67,10365],[15,10471,10473],{"className":10472},[918],[15,10474,10476,10496],{"className":10475},[922,923],[15,10477,10479,10493],{"className":10478},[927],[15,10480,10482],{"className":10481,"style":1731},[931],[15,10483,10484,10487],{"style":10381},[15,10485],{"className":10486,"style":940},[939],[15,10488,10490],{"className":10489},[944,945,946,947],[15,10491,1680],{"className":10492},[67,68,947],[15,10494,955],{"className":10495},[954],[15,10497,10499],{"className":10498},[927],[15,10500,10502],{"className":10501,"style":962},[931],[15,10503],{},[15,10505],{"className":10506,"style":199},[77],[15,10508,1597],{"className":10509},[203],[15,10511],{"className":10512,"style":199},[77],[15,10514,10516,10519,10522,10525,10528],{"className":10515},[58],[15,10517],{"className":10518,"style":124},[62],[15,10520,1341],{"className":10521,"style":82},[67,68],[15,10523],{"className":10524,"style":82},[77],[15,10526,10235],{"className":10527},[1646],[15,10529],{"className":10530,"style":82},[77],[15,10532,10534,10537,10540,10580],{"className":10533},[58],[15,10535],{"className":10536,"style":124},[62],[15,10538,1417],{"className":10539},[132],[15,10541,10543,10546],{"className":10542},[67],[15,10544,1341],{"className":10545,"style":82},[67,68],[15,10547,10549],{"className":10548},[918],[15,10550,10552,10572],{"className":10551},[922,923],[15,10553,10555,10569],{"className":10554},[927],[15,10556,10558],{"className":10557,"style":1731},[931],[15,10559,10560,10563],{"style":1497},[15,10561],{"className":10562,"style":940},[939],[15,10564,10566],{"className":10565},[944,945,946,947],[15,10567,1680],{"className":10568},[67,68,947],[15,10570,955],{"className":10571},[954],[15,10573,10575],{"className":10574},[927],[15,10576,10578],{"className":10577,"style":962},[931],[15,10579],{},[15,10581,1442],{"className":10582},[148],"\n其中 ",[15,10585,10587,10609],{"className":10586,"translate":19},[18],[15,10588,10590],{"className":10589},[23],[25,10591,10592],{"xmlns":27},[29,10593,10594,10606],{},[32,10595,10596],{},[863,10597,10598,10604],{},[32,10599,10600,10602],{},[35,10601,98],{"mathvariant":878},[35,10603,10201],{"mathvariant":878},[35,10605,1680],{},[47,10607,10608],{"encoding":49},"\\mathrm{Pa}_i",[15,10610,10612],{"className":10611,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,10613,10615,10618],{"className":10614},[58],[15,10616],{"className":10617,"style":1863},[62],[15,10619,10621,10627],{"className":10620},[67],[15,10622,10624],{"className":10623},[67],[15,10625,10366],{"className":10626},[67,10365],[15,10628,10630],{"className":10629},[918],[15,10631,10633,10653],{"className":10632},[922,923],[15,10634,10636,10650],{"className":10635},[927],[15,10637,10639],{"className":10638,"style":1731},[931],[15,10640,10641,10644],{"style":10381},[15,10642],{"className":10643,"style":940},[939],[15,10645,10647],{"className":10646},[944,945,946,947],[15,10648,1680],{"className":10649},[67,68,947],[15,10651,955],{"className":10652},[954],[15,10654,10656],{"className":10655},[927],[15,10657,10659],{"className":10658,"style":962},[931],[15,10660],{},"（",[15,10663,10665,10682],{"className":10664,"translate":19},[18],[15,10666,10668],{"className":10667},[23],[25,10669,10670],{"xmlns":27},[29,10671,10672,10680],{},[32,10673,10674],{},[863,10675,10676,10678],{},[35,10677,1341],{},[35,10679,1680],{},[47,10681,1981],{"encoding":49},[15,10683,10685],{"className":10684,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,10686,10688,10691],{"className":10687},[58],[15,10689],{"className":10690,"style":1863},[62],[15,10692,10694,10697],{"className":10693},[67],[15,10695,1341],{"className":10696,"style":82},[67,68],[15,10698,10700],{"className":10699},[918],[15,10701,10703,10723],{"className":10702},[922,923],[15,10704,10706,10720],{"className":10705},[927],[15,10707,10709],{"className":10708,"style":1731},[931],[15,10710,10711,10714],{"style":1497},[15,10712],{"className":10713,"style":940},[939],[15,10715,10717],{"className":10716},[944,945,946,947],[15,10718,1680],{"className":10719},[67,68,947],[15,10721,955],{"className":10722},[954],[15,10724,10726],{"className":10725},[927],[15,10727,10729],{"className":10728,"style":962},[931],[15,10730],{}," 的「父集合」）是被假设直接影响 ",[15,10733,10735,10752],{"className":10734,"translate":19},[18],[15,10736,10738],{"className":10737},[23],[25,10739,10740],{"xmlns":27},[29,10741,10742,10750],{},[32,10743,10744],{},[863,10745,10746,10748],{},[35,10747,1341],{},[35,10749,1680],{},[47,10751,1981],{"encoding":49},[15,10753,10755],{"className":10754,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,10756,10758,10761],{"className":10757},[58],[15,10759],{"className":10760,"style":1863},[62],[15,10762,10764,10767],{"className":10763},[67],[15,10765,1341],{"className":10766,"style":82},[67,68],[15,10768,10770],{"className":10769},[918],[15,10771,10773,10793],{"className":10772},[922,923],[15,10774,10776,10790],{"className":10775},[927],[15,10777,10779],{"className":10778,"style":1731},[931],[15,10780,10781,10784],{"style":1497},[15,10782],{"className":10783,"style":940},[939],[15,10785,10787],{"className":10786},[944,945,946,947],[15,10788,1680],{"className":10789},[67,68,947],[15,10791,955],{"className":10792},[954],[15,10794,10796],{"className":10795},[927],[15,10797,10799],{"className":10798,"style":962},[931],[15,10800],{}," 的其余内生变量子集，",[15,10803,10805,10827],{"className":10804,"translate":19},[18],[15,10806,10808],{"className":10807},[23],[25,10809,10810],{"xmlns":27},[29,10811,10812,10824],{},[32,10813,10814,10820,10822],{},[863,10815,10816,10818],{},[35,10817,2454],{},[35,10819,1680],{},[39,10821,1597],{},[35,10823,2454],{},[47,10825,10826],{"encoding":49},"U_i \\subseteq U",[15,10828,10830,10885],{"className":10829,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,10831,10833,10836,10876,10879,10882],{"className":10832},[58],[15,10834],{"className":10835,"style":1863},[62],[15,10837,10839,10842],{"className":10838},[67],[15,10840,2454],{"className":10841,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,10843,10845],{"className":10844},[918],[15,10846,10848,10868],{"className":10847},[922,923],[15,10849,10851,10865],{"className":10850},[927],[15,10852,10854],{"className":10853,"style":1731},[931],[15,10855,10856,10859],{"style":2581},[15,10857],{"className":10858,"style":940},[939],[15,10860,10862],{"className":10861},[944,945,946,947],[15,10863,1680],{"className":10864},[67,68,947],[15,10866,955],{"className":10867},[954],[15,10869,10871],{"className":10870},[927],[15,10872,10874],{"className":10873,"style":962},[931],[15,10875],{},[15,10877],{"className":10878,"style":199},[77],[15,10880,1597],{"className":10881},[203],[15,10883],{"className":10884,"style":199},[77],[15,10886,10888,10891],{"className":10887},[58],[15,10889],{"className":10890,"style":299},[62],[15,10892,2454],{"className":10893,"style":2566},[67,68]," 是影响 ",[15,10896,10898,10915],{"className":10897,"translate":19},[18],[15,10899,10901],{"className":10900},[23],[25,10902,10903],{"xmlns":27},[29,10904,10905,10913],{},[32,10906,10907],{},[863,10908,10909,10911],{},[35,10910,1341],{},[35,10912,1680],{},[47,10914,1981],{"encoding":49},[15,10916,10918],{"className":10917,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,10919,10921,10924],{"className":10920},[58],[15,10922],{"className":10923,"style":1863},[62],[15,10925,10927,10930],{"className":10926},[67],[15,10928,1341],{"className":10929,"style":82},[67,68],[15,10931,10933],{"className":10932},[918],[15,10934,10936,10956],{"className":10935},[922,923],[15,10937,10939,10953],{"className":10938},[927],[15,10940,10942],{"className":10941,"style":1731},[931],[15,10943,10944,10947],{"style":1497},[15,10945],{"className":10946,"style":940},[939],[15,10948,10950],{"className":10949},[944,945,946,947],[15,10951,1680],{"className":10952},[67,68,947],[15,10954,955],{"className":10955},[954],[15,10957,10959],{"className":10958},[927],[15,10960,10962],{"className":10961,"style":962},[931],[15,10963],{}," 的外生噪声；",[510,10966,10967,11011,11012,11040],{},[15,10968,10970,10990],{"className":10969,"translate":19},[18],[15,10971,10973],{"className":10972},[23],[25,10974,10975],{"xmlns":27},[29,10976,10977,10987],{},[32,10978,10979,10981,10983,10985],{},[35,10980,98],{},[39,10982,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,10984,2454],{},[39,10986,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,10988,10989],{"encoding":49},"P(U)",[15,10991,10993],{"className":10992,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,10994,10996,10999,11002,11005,11008],{"className":10995},[58],[15,10997],{"className":10998,"style":124},[62],[15,11000,98],{"className":11001,"style":128},[67,68],[15,11003,102],{"className":11004},[132],[15,11006,2454],{"className":11007,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,11009,111],{"className":11010},[148]," 是外生变量集合 ",[15,11013,11015,11028],{"className":11014,"translate":19},[18],[15,11016,11018],{"className":11017},[23],[25,11019,11020],{"xmlns":27},[29,11021,11022,11026],{},[32,11023,11024],{},[35,11025,2454],{},[47,11027,2454],{"encoding":49},[15,11029,11031],{"className":11030,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,11032,11034,11037],{"className":11033},[58],[15,11035],{"className":11036,"style":299},[62],[15,11038,2454],{"className":11039,"style":2566},[67,68]," 上的联合概率分布。",[1314,11042,11044],{"title":11043},"定义 2.2（诱导因果图）",[11,11045,11046,11047,11075,11076,11146,11147,11239,11240,11269,11270,11410,11411,2247],{},"给定 SCM ",[15,11048,11050,11063],{"className":11049,"translate":19},[18],[15,11051,11053],{"className":11052},[23],[25,11054,11055],{"xmlns":27},[29,11056,11057,11061],{},[32,11058,11059],{},[35,11060,9452],{},[47,11062,9452],{"encoding":49},[15,11064,11066],{"className":11065,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,11067,11069,11072],{"className":11068},[58],[15,11070],{"className":11071,"style":299},[62],[15,11073,9452],{"className":11074,"style":2566},[67,68],"，其对应的因果图 ",[15,11077,11079,11097],{"className":11078,"translate":19},[18],[15,11080,11082],{"className":11081},[23],[25,11083,11084],{"xmlns":27},[29,11085,11086,11094],{},[32,11087,11088],{},[863,11089,11090,11092],{},[35,11091,1334],{},[35,11093,9452],{},[47,11095,11096],{"encoding":49},"G_M",[15,11098,11100],{"className":11099,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,11101,11103,11106],{"className":11102},[58],[15,11104],{"className":11105,"style":1863},[62],[15,11107,11109,11112],{"className":11108},[67],[15,11110,1334],{"className":11111},[67,68],[15,11113,11115],{"className":11114},[918],[15,11116,11118,11138],{"className":11117},[922,923],[15,11119,11121,11135],{"className":11120},[927],[15,11122,11124],{"className":11123,"style":7346},[931],[15,11125,11126,11129],{"style":7277},[15,11127],{"className":11128,"style":940},[939],[15,11130,11132],{"className":11131},[944,945,946,947],[15,11133,9452],{"className":11134,"style":2566},[67,68,947],[15,11136,955],{"className":11137},[954],[15,11139,11141],{"className":11140},[927],[15,11142,11144],{"className":11143,"style":962},[931],[15,11145],{}," 定义为：",[15,11148,11150,11172],{"className":11149,"translate":19},[18],[15,11151,11153],{"className":11152},[23],[25,11154,11155],{"xmlns":27},[29,11156,11157,11169],{},[32,11158,11159,11165,11167],{},[863,11160,11161,11163],{},[35,11162,1341],{},[35,11164,9452],{},[39,11166,602],{},[35,11168,1341],{},[47,11170,11171],{"encoding":49},"V_M = V",[15,11173,11175,11230],{"className":11174,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,11176,11178,11181,11221,11224,11227],{"className":11177},[58],[15,11179],{"className":11180,"style":1863},[62],[15,11182,11184,11187],{"className":11183},[67],[15,11185,1341],{"className":11186,"style":82},[67,68],[15,11188,11190],{"className":11189},[918],[15,11191,11193,11213],{"className":11192},[922,923],[15,11194,11196,11210],{"className":11195},[927],[15,11197,11199],{"className":11198,"style":7346},[931],[15,11200,11201,11204],{"style":1497},[15,11202],{"className":11203,"style":940},[939],[15,11205,11207],{"className":11206},[944,945,946,947],[15,11208,9452],{"className":11209,"style":2566},[67,68,947],[15,11211,955],{"className":11212},[954],[15,11214,11216],{"className":11215},[927],[15,11217,11219],{"className":11218,"style":962},[931],[15,11220],{},[15,11222],{"className":11223,"style":199},[77],[15,11225,602],{"className":11226},[203],[15,11228],{"className":11229,"style":199},[77],[15,11231,11233,11236],{"className":11232},[58],[15,11234],{"className":11235,"style":299},[62],[15,11237,1341],{"className":11238,"style":82},[67,68],"，且对每个 ",[15,11241,11243,11256],{"className":11242,"translate":19},[18],[15,11244,11246],{"className":11245},[23],[25,11247,11248],{"xmlns":27},[29,11249,11250,11254],{},[32,11251,11252],{},[35,11253,1680],{},[47,11255,1680],{"encoding":49},[15,11257,11259],{"className":11258,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,11260,11262,11266],{"className":11261},[58],[15,11263],{"className":11264,"style":11265},[62],"height:0.6595em;",[15,11267,1680],{"className":11268},[67,68],"、每个 ",[15,11271,11273,11303],{"className":11272,"translate":19},[18],[15,11274,11276],{"className":11275},[23],[25,11277,11278],{"xmlns":27},[29,11279,11280,11300],{},[32,11281,11282,11288,11290],{},[863,11283,11284,11286],{},[35,11285,1341],{},[35,11287,1689],{},[39,11289,1694],{},[863,11291,11292,11298],{},[32,11293,11294,11296],{},[35,11295,98],{"mathvariant":878},[35,11297,10201],{"mathvariant":878},[35,11299,1680],{},[47,11301,11302],{"encoding":49},"V_j \\in \\mathrm{Pa}_i",[15,11304,11306,11361],{"className":11305,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,11307,11309,11312,11352,11355,11358],{"className":11308},[58],[15,11310],{"className":11311,"style":1919},[62],[15,11313,11315,11318],{"className":11314},[67],[15,11316,1341],{"className":11317,"style":82},[67,68],[15,11319,11321],{"className":11320},[918],[15,11322,11324,11344],{"className":11323},[922,923],[15,11325,11327,11341],{"className":11326},[927],[15,11328,11330],{"className":11329,"style":1731},[931],[15,11331,11332,11335],{"style":1497},[15,11333],{"className":11334,"style":940},[939],[15,11336,11338],{"className":11337},[944,945,946,947],[15,11339,1689],{"className":11340,"style":1789},[67,68,947],[15,11342,955],{"className":11343},[954],[15,11345,11347],{"className":11346},[927],[15,11348,11350],{"className":11349,"style":1799},[931],[15,11351],{},[15,11353],{"className":11354,"style":199},[77],[15,11356,1694],{"className":11357},[203],[15,11359],{"className":11360,"style":199},[77],[15,11362,11364,11367],{"className":11363},[58],[15,11365],{"className":11366,"style":1863},[62],[15,11368,11370,11376],{"className":11369},[67],[15,11371,11373],{"className":11372},[67],[15,11374,10366],{"className":11375},[67,10365],[15,11377,11379],{"className":11378},[918],[15,11380,11382,11402],{"className":11381},[922,923],[15,11383,11385,11399],{"className":11384},[927],[15,11386,11388],{"className":11387,"style":1731},[931],[15,11389,11390,11393],{"style":10381},[15,11391],{"className":11392,"style":940},[939],[15,11394,11396],{"className":11395},[944,945,946,947],[15,11397,1680],{"className":11398},[67,68,947],[15,11400,955],{"className":11401},[954],[15,11403,11405],{"className":11404},[927],[15,11406,11408],{"className":11407,"style":962},[931],[15,11409],{},"，画一条边 ",[15,11412,11414,11440],{"className":11413,"translate":19},[18],[15,11415,11417],{"className":11416},[23],[25,11418,11419],{"xmlns":27},[29,11420,11421,11437],{},[32,11422,11423,11429,11431],{},[863,11424,11425,11427],{},[35,11426,1341],{},[35,11428,1689],{},[39,11430,1844],{},[863,11432,11433,11435],{},[35,11434,1341],{},[35,11436,1680],{},[47,11438,11439],{"encoding":49},"V_j \\to V_i",[15,11441,11443,11498],{"className":11442,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,11444,11446,11449,11489,11492,11495],{"className":11445},[58],[15,11447],{"className":11448,"style":1919},[62],[15,11450,11452,11455],{"className":11451},[67],[15,11453,1341],{"className":11454,"style":82},[67,68],[15,11456,11458],{"className":11457},[918],[15,11459,11461,11481],{"className":11460},[922,923],[15,11462,11464,11478],{"className":11463},[927],[15,11465,11467],{"className":11466,"style":1731},[931],[15,11468,11469,11472],{"style":1497},[15,11470],{"className":11471,"style":940},[939],[15,11473,11475],{"className":11474},[944,945,946,947],[15,11476,1689],{"className":11477,"style":1789},[67,68,947],[15,11479,955],{"className":11480},[954],[15,11482,11484],{"className":11483},[927],[15,11485,11487],{"className":11486,"style":1799},[931],[15,11488],{},[15,11490],{"className":11491,"style":199},[77],[15,11493,1844],{"className":11494},[203],[15,11496],{"className":11497,"style":199},[77],[15,11499,11501,11504],{"className":11500},[58],[15,11502],{"className":11503,"style":1863},[62],[15,11505,11507,11510],{"className":11506},[67],[15,11508,1341],{"className":11509,"style":82},[67,68],[15,11511,11513],{"className":11512},[918],[15,11514,11516,11536],{"className":11515},[922,923],[15,11517,11519,11533],{"className":11518},[927],[15,11520,11522],{"className":11521,"style":1731},[931],[15,11523,11524,11527],{"style":1497},[15,11525],{"className":11526,"style":940},[939],[15,11528,11530],{"className":11529},[944,945,946,947],[15,11531,1680],{"className":11532},[67,68,947],[15,11534,955],{"className":11535},[954],[15,11537,11539],{"className":11538},[927],[15,11540,11542],{"className":11541,"style":962},[931],[15,11543],{},[1314,11545,11547],{"title":11546},"定义 2.3（马尔可夫型 SCM，Markovian SCM）",[11,11548,6995,11549,11618,11619,11759,11760,11763,11764,11792,11793,11796,11797,11927],{},[15,11550,11552,11569],{"className":11551,"translate":19},[18],[15,11553,11555],{"className":11554},[23],[25,11556,11557],{"xmlns":27},[29,11558,11559,11567],{},[32,11560,11561],{},[863,11562,11563,11565],{},[35,11564,1334],{},[35,11566,9452],{},[47,11568,11096],{"encoding":49},[15,11570,11572],{"className":11571,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,11573,11575,11578],{"className":11574},[58],[15,11576],{"className":11577,"style":1863},[62],[15,11579,11581,11584],{"className":11580},[67],[15,11582,1334],{"className":11583},[67,68],[15,11585,11587],{"className":11586},[918],[15,11588,11590,11610],{"className":11589},[922,923],[15,11591,11593,11607],{"className":11592},[927],[15,11594,11596],{"className":11595,"style":7346},[931],[15,11597,11598,11601],{"style":7277},[15,11599],{"className":11600,"style":940},[939],[15,11602,11604],{"className":11603},[944,945,946,947],[15,11605,9452],{"className":11606,"style":2566},[67,68,947],[15,11608,955],{"className":11609},[954],[15,11611,11613],{"className":11612},[927],[15,11614,11616],{"className":11615,"style":962},[931],[15,11617],{}," 是无环的，且各外生变量 ",[15,11620,11622,11652],{"className":11621,"translate":19},[18],[15,11623,11625],{"className":11624},[23],[25,11626,11627],{"xmlns":27},[29,11628,11629,11649],{},[32,11630,11631,11637,11639,11641,11643],{},[863,11632,11633,11635],{},[35,11634,2454],{},[1423,11636,1425],{},[39,11638,42],{"separator":41},[39,11640,1430],{},[39,11642,42],{"separator":41},[863,11644,11645,11647],{},[35,11646,2454],{},[35,11648,9594],{},[47,11650,11651],{"encoding":49},"U_1, \\dots, U_m",[15,11653,11655],{"className":11654,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,11656,11658,11661,11701,11704,11707,11710,11713,11716,11719],{"className":11657},[58],[15,11659],{"className":11660,"style":63},[62],[15,11662,11664,11667],{"className":11663},[67],[15,11665,2454],{"className":11666,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,11668,11670],{"className":11669},[918],[15,11671,11673,11693],{"className":11672},[922,923],[15,11674,11676,11690],{"className":11675},[927],[15,11677,11679],{"className":11678,"style":1494},[931],[15,11680,11681,11684],{"style":2581},[15,11682],{"className":11683,"style":940},[939],[15,11685,11687],{"className":11686},[944,945,946,947],[15,11688,1425],{"className":11689},[67,947],[15,11691,955],{"className":11692},[954],[15,11694,11696],{"className":11695},[927],[15,11697,11699],{"className":11698,"style":962},[931],[15,11700],{},[15,11702,42],{"className":11703},[73],[15,11705],{"className":11706,"style":78},[77],[15,11708,1430],{"className":11709},[1527],[15,11711],{"className":11712,"style":78},[77],[15,11714,42],{"className":11715},[73],[15,11717],{"className":11718,"style":78},[77],[15,11720,11722,11725],{"className":11721},[67],[15,11723,2454],{"className":11724,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,11726,11728],{"className":11727},[918],[15,11729,11731,11751],{"className":11730},[922,923],[15,11732,11734,11748],{"className":11733},[927],[15,11735,11737],{"className":11736,"style":932},[931],[15,11738,11739,11742],{"style":2581},[15,11740],{"className":11741,"style":940},[939],[15,11743,11745],{"className":11744},[944,945,946,947],[15,11746,9594],{"className":11747},[67,68,947],[15,11749,955],{"className":11750},[954],[15,11752,11754],{"className":11753},[927],[15,11755,11757],{"className":11756,"style":962},[931],[15,11758],{}," 两两",[305,11761,11762],{},"相互独立","（即不存在同时影响两个及以上内生变量的「隐藏共同噪声」），则称 ",[15,11765,11767,11780],{"className":11766,"translate":19},[18],[15,11768,11770],{"className":11769},[23],[25,11771,11772],{"xmlns":27},[29,11773,11774,11778],{},[32,11775,11776],{},[35,11777,9452],{},[47,11779,9452],{"encoding":49},[15,11781,11783],{"className":11782,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,11784,11786,11789],{"className":11785},[58],[15,11787],{"className":11788,"style":299},[62],[15,11790,9452],{"className":11791,"style":2566},[67,68]," 为马尔可夫型 SCM。若外生变量之间允许相关（对应存在未显式建模的混杂因子），则称为",[305,11794,11795],{},"半马尔可夫型（semi-Markovian）","，此时因果图通常需要补充双向虚线弧 ",[15,11798,11800,11831],{"className":11799,"translate":19},[18],[15,11801,11803],{"className":11802},[23],[25,11804,11805],{"xmlns":27},[29,11806,11807,11828],{},[32,11808,11809,11815,11822],{},[863,11810,11811,11813],{},[35,11812,1341],{},[35,11814,1680],{},[11816,11817,11819],"mstyle",{"mathcolor":11818},"#cc0000",[238,11820,11821],{},"\\dashleftrightarrow",[863,11823,11824,11826],{},[35,11825,1341],{},[35,11827,1689],{},[47,11829,11830],{"encoding":49},"V_i \\dashleftrightarrow V_j",[15,11832,11834],{"className":11833,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,11835,11837,11840,11880,11887],{"className":11836},[58],[15,11838],{"className":11839,"style":1709},[62],[15,11841,11843,11846],{"className":11842},[67],[15,11844,1341],{"className":11845,"style":82},[67,68],[15,11847,11849],{"className":11848},[918],[15,11850,11852,11872],{"className":11851},[922,923],[15,11853,11855,11869],{"className":11854},[927],[15,11856,11858],{"className":11857,"style":1731},[931],[15,11859,11860,11863],{"style":1497},[15,11861],{"className":11862,"style":940},[939],[15,11864,11866],{"className":11865},[944,945,946,947],[15,11867,1680],{"className":11868},[67,68,947],[15,11870,955],{"className":11871},[954],[15,11873,11875],{"className":11874},[927],[15,11876,11878],{"className":11877,"style":962},[931],[15,11879],{},[15,11881,11884],{"className":11882,"style":11883},[67,6301],"color:#cc0000;",[15,11885,11821],{"className":11886,"style":11883},[67],[15,11888,11890,11893],{"className":11889},[67],[15,11891,1341],{"className":11892,"style":82},[67,68],[15,11894,11896],{"className":11895},[918],[15,11897,11899,11919],{"className":11898},[922,923],[15,11900,11902,11916],{"className":11901},[927],[15,11903,11905],{"className":11904,"style":1731},[931],[15,11906,11907,11910],{"style":1497},[15,11908],{"className":11909,"style":940},[939],[15,11911,11913],{"className":11912},[944,945,946,947],[15,11914,1689],{"className":11915,"style":1789},[67,68,947],[15,11917,955],{"className":11918},[954],[15,11920,11922],{"className":11921},[927],[15,11923,11925],{"className":11924,"style":1799},[931],[15,11926],{}," 以标示这种隐藏依赖。本文后续讨论若无特别说明，均限于马尔可夫型 SCM。",[1309,11929,11931],{"id":11930},"_22-诱导分布与马尔可夫性","2.2 诱导分布与马尔可夫性",[1314,11933,11935],{"title":11934},"定义 2.4（诱导概率分布）",[11,11936,11937,11938,11966,11967,11995,11996,12145,12146,12174,12175,12218,12219,12247,12248,12334,12335,2102,12363,2247],{},"给定马尔可夫型 SCM ",[15,11939,11941,11954],{"className":11940,"translate":19},[18],[15,11942,11944],{"className":11943},[23],[25,11945,11946],{"xmlns":27},[29,11947,11948,11952],{},[32,11949,11950],{},[35,11951,9452],{},[47,11953,9452],{"encoding":49},[15,11955,11957],{"className":11956,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,11958,11960,11963],{"className":11959},[58],[15,11961],{"className":11962,"style":299},[62],[15,11964,9452],{"className":11965,"style":2566},[67,68],"，由于每个内生变量都是外生变量的确定性函数（递归代入 ",[15,11968,11970,11983],{"className":11969,"translate":19},[18],[15,11971,11973],{"className":11972},[23],[25,11974,11975],{"xmlns":27},[29,11976,11977,11981],{},[32,11978,11979],{},[35,11980,9467],{},[47,11982,9467],{"encoding":49},[15,11984,11986],{"className":11985,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,11987,11989,11992],{"className":11988},[58],[15,11990],{"className":11991,"style":299},[62],[15,11993,9467],{"className":11994,"style":128},[67,68]," 中所有方程后可得 ",[15,11997,11999,12032],{"className":11998,"translate":19},[18],[15,12000,12002],{"className":12001},[23],[25,12003,12004],{"xmlns":27},[29,12005,12006,12029],{},[32,12007,12008,12014,12016,12023,12025,12027],{},[863,12009,12010,12012],{},[35,12011,1341],{},[35,12013,1680],{},[39,12015,602],{},[863,12017,12018,12021],{},[35,12019,12020],{},"g",[35,12022,1680],{},[39,12024,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,12026,2454],{},[39,12028,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,12030,12031],{"encoding":49},"V_i = g_i(U)",[15,12033,12035,12090],{"className":12034,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,12036,12038,12041,12081,12084,12087],{"className":12037},[58],[15,12039],{"className":12040,"style":1863},[62],[15,12042,12044,12047],{"className":12043},[67],[15,12045,1341],{"className":12046,"style":82},[67,68],[15,12048,12050],{"className":12049},[918],[15,12051,12053,12073],{"className":12052},[922,923],[15,12054,12056,12070],{"className":12055},[927],[15,12057,12059],{"className":12058,"style":1731},[931],[15,12060,12061,12064],{"style":1497},[15,12062],{"className":12063,"style":940},[939],[15,12065,12067],{"className":12066},[944,945,946,947],[15,12068,1680],{"className":12069},[67,68,947],[15,12071,955],{"className":12072},[954],[15,12074,12076],{"className":12075},[927],[15,12077,12079],{"className":12078,"style":962},[931],[15,12080],{},[15,12082],{"className":12083,"style":199},[77],[15,12085,602],{"className":12086},[203],[15,12088],{"className":12089,"style":199},[77],[15,12091,12093,12096,12136,12139,12142],{"className":12092},[58],[15,12094],{"className":12095,"style":124},[62],[15,12097,12099,12102],{"className":12098},[67],[15,12100,12020],{"className":12101,"style":563},[67,68],[15,12103,12105],{"className":12104},[918],[15,12106,12108,12128],{"className":12107},[922,923],[15,12109,12111,12125],{"className":12110},[927],[15,12112,12114],{"className":12113,"style":1731},[931],[15,12115,12116,12119],{"style":935},[15,12117],{"className":12118,"style":940},[939],[15,12120,12122],{"className":12121},[944,945,946,947],[15,12123,1680],{"className":12124},[67,68,947],[15,12126,955],{"className":12127},[954],[15,12129,12131],{"className":12130},[927],[15,12132,12134],{"className":12133,"style":962},[931],[15,12135],{},[15,12137,102],{"className":12138},[132],[15,12140,2454],{"className":12141,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,12143,111],{"className":12144},[148],"），",[15,12147,12149,12162],{"className":12148,"translate":19},[18],[15,12150,12152],{"className":12151},[23],[25,12153,12154],{"xmlns":27},[29,12155,12156,12160],{},[32,12157,12158],{},[35,12159,2454],{},[47,12161,2454],{"encoding":49},[15,12163,12165],{"className":12164,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,12166,12168,12171],{"className":12167},[58],[15,12169],{"className":12170,"style":299},[62],[15,12172,2454],{"className":12173,"style":2566},[67,68]," 上的分布 ",[15,12176,12178,12197],{"className":12177,"translate":19},[18],[15,12179,12181],{"className":12180},[23],[25,12182,12183],{"xmlns":27},[29,12184,12185,12195],{},[32,12186,12187,12189,12191,12193],{},[35,12188,98],{},[39,12190,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,12192,2454],{},[39,12194,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,12196,10989],{"encoding":49},[15,12198,12200],{"className":12199,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,12201,12203,12206,12209,12212,12215],{"className":12202},[58],[15,12204],{"className":12205,"style":124},[62],[15,12207,98],{"className":12208,"style":128},[67,68],[15,12210,102],{"className":12211},[132],[15,12213,2454],{"className":12214,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,12216,111],{"className":12217},[148]," 唯一诱导出 ",[15,12220,12222,12235],{"className":12221,"translate":19},[18],[15,12223,12225],{"className":12224},[23],[25,12226,12227],{"xmlns":27},[29,12228,12229,12233],{},[32,12230,12231],{},[35,12232,1341],{},[47,12234,1341],{"encoding":49},[15,12236,12238],{"className":12237,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,12239,12241,12244],{"className":12240},[58],[15,12242],{"className":12243,"style":299},[62],[15,12245,1341],{"className":12246,"style":82},[67,68]," 上的一个联合分布 ",[15,12249,12251,12275],{"className":12250,"translate":19},[18],[15,12252,12254],{"className":12253},[23],[25,12255,12256],{"xmlns":27},[29,12257,12258,12272],{},[32,12259,12260,12266,12268,12270],{},[863,12261,12262,12264],{},[35,12263,98],{},[35,12265,9452],{},[39,12267,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,12269,1341],{},[39,12271,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,12273,12274],{"encoding":49},"P_M(V)",[15,12276,12278],{"className":12277,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,12279,12281,12284,12325,12328,12331],{"className":12280},[58],[15,12282],{"className":12283,"style":124},[62],[15,12285,12287,12290],{"className":12286},[67],[15,12288,98],{"className":12289,"style":128},[67,68],[15,12291,12293],{"className":12292},[918],[15,12294,12296,12317],{"className":12295},[922,923],[15,12297,12299,12314],{"className":12298},[927],[15,12300,12302],{"className":12301,"style":7346},[931],[15,12303,12305,12308],{"style":12304},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.1389em;margin-right:0.05em;",[15,12306],{"className":12307,"style":940},[939],[15,12309,12311],{"className":12310},[944,945,946,947],[15,12312,9452],{"className":12313,"style":2566},[67,68,947],[15,12315,955],{"className":12316},[954],[15,12318,12320],{"className":12319},[927],[15,12321,12323],{"className":12322,"style":962},[931],[15,12324],{},[15,12326,102],{"className":12327},[132],[15,12329,1341],{"className":12330,"style":82},[67,68],[15,12332,111],{"className":12333},[148],"，称为 ",[15,12336,12338,12351],{"className":12337,"translate":19},[18],[15,12339,12341],{"className":12340},[23],[25,12342,12343],{"xmlns":27},[29,12344,12345,12349],{},[32,12346,12347],{},[35,12348,9452],{},[47,12350,9452],{"encoding":49},[15,12352,12354],{"className":12353,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,12355,12357,12360],{"className":12356},[58],[15,12358],{"className":12359,"style":299},[62],[15,12361,9452],{"className":12362,"style":2566},[67,68],[305,12364,12365,12366,12369],{},"诱导分布（induced distribution）",[305,12367,12368],{},"或","观测分布",[1314,12371,12373],{"title":12372},"定理 2.1（马尔可夫分解，Markov Factorization）",[11,12374,6995,12375,12403,12404,12488,12489,12926],{},[15,12376,12378,12391],{"className":12377,"translate":19},[18],[15,12379,12381],{"className":12380},[23],[25,12382,12383],{"xmlns":27},[29,12384,12385,12389],{},[32,12386,12387],{},[35,12388,9452],{},[47,12390,9452],{"encoding":49},[15,12392,12394],{"className":12393,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,12395,12397,12400],{"className":12396},[58],[15,12398],{"className":12399,"style":299},[62],[15,12401,9452],{"className":12402,"style":2566},[67,68]," 为马尔可夫型 SCM，其诱导分布 ",[15,12405,12407,12430],{"className":12406,"translate":19},[18],[15,12408,12410],{"className":12409},[23],[25,12411,12412],{"xmlns":27},[29,12413,12414,12428],{},[32,12415,12416,12422,12424,12426],{},[863,12417,12418,12420],{},[35,12419,98],{},[35,12421,9452],{},[39,12423,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,12425,1341],{},[39,12427,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,12429,12274],{"encoding":49},[15,12431,12433],{"className":12432,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,12434,12436,12439,12479,12482,12485],{"className":12435},[58],[15,12437],{"className":12438,"style":124},[62],[15,12440,12442,12445],{"className":12441},[67],[15,12443,98],{"className":12444,"style":128},[67,68],[15,12446,12448],{"className":12447},[918],[15,12449,12451,12471],{"className":12450},[922,923],[15,12452,12454,12468],{"className":12453},[927],[15,12455,12457],{"className":12456,"style":7346},[931],[15,12458,12459,12462],{"style":12304},[15,12460],{"className":12461,"style":940},[939],[15,12463,12465],{"className":12464},[944,945,946,947],[15,12466,9452],{"className":12467,"style":2566},[67,68,947],[15,12469,955],{"className":12470},[954],[15,12472,12474],{"className":12473},[927],[15,12475,12477],{"className":12476,"style":962},[931],[15,12478],{},[15,12480,102],{"className":12481},[132],[15,12483,1341],{"className":12484,"style":82},[67,68],[15,12486,111],{"className":12487},[148]," 可分解为：\n",[15,12490,12492,12575],{"className":12491,"translate":19},[18],[15,12493,12495],{"className":12494},[23],[25,12496,12497],{"xmlns":27},[29,12498,12499,12572],{},[32,12500,12501,12507,12509,12516,12518,12520,12522,12528,12530,12532,12548,12550,12552,12558,12560,12570],{},[863,12502,12503,12505],{},[35,12504,98],{},[35,12506,9452],{},[39,12508,102],{"stretchy":101},[863,12510,12511,12514],{},[35,12512,12513],{},"v",[1423,12515,1425],{},[39,12517,42],{"separator":41},[39,12519,1430],{},[39,12521,42],{"separator":41},[863,12523,12524,12526],{},[35,12525,12513],{},[35,12527,1439],{},[39,12529,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,12531,602],{},[12533,12534,12535,12538,12546],"msubsup",{},[39,12536,12537],{},"∏",[32,12539,12540,12542,12544],{},[35,12541,1680],{},[39,12543,602],{},[1423,12545,1425],{},[35,12547,1439],{},[35,12549,98],{},[39,12551,102],{"stretchy":101},[863,12553,12554,12556],{},[35,12555,12513],{},[35,12557,1680],{},[39,12559,170],{},[863,12561,12562,12568],{},[32,12563,12564,12566],{},[35,12565,11],{"mathvariant":878},[35,12567,10201],{"mathvariant":878},[35,12569,1680],{},[39,12571,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,12573,12574],{"encoding":49},"P_M(v_1, \\dots, v_n) = \\prod_{i=1}^n P(v_i \\mid \\mathrm{pa}_i)",[15,12576,12578,12737,12870],{"className":12577,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,12579,12581,12584,12624,12627,12667,12670,12673,12676,12679,12682,12685,12725,12728,12731,12734],{"className":12580},[58],[15,12582],{"className":12583,"style":124},[62],[15,12585,12587,12590],{"className":12586},[67],[15,12588,98],{"className":12589,"style":128},[67,68],[15,12591,12593],{"className":12592},[918],[15,12594,12596,12616],{"className":12595},[922,923],[15,12597,12599,12613],{"className":12598},[927],[15,12600,12602],{"className":12601,"style":7346},[931],[15,12603,12604,12607],{"style":12304},[15,12605],{"className":12606,"style":940},[939],[15,12608,12610],{"className":12609},[944,945,946,947],[15,12611,9452],{"className":12612,"style":2566},[67,68,947],[15,12614,955],{"className":12615},[954],[15,12617,12619],{"className":12618},[927],[15,12620,12622],{"className":12621,"style":962},[931],[15,12623],{},[15,12625,102],{"className":12626},[132],[15,12628,12630,12633],{"className":12629},[67],[15,12631,12513],{"className":12632,"style":563},[67,68],[15,12634,12636],{"className":12635},[918],[15,12637,12639,12659],{"className":12638},[922,923],[15,12640,12642,12656],{"className":12641},[927],[15,12643,12645],{"className":12644,"style":1494},[931],[15,12646,12647,12650],{"style":935},[15,12648],{"className":12649,"style":940},[939],[15,12651,12653],{"className":12652},[944,945,946,947],[15,12654,1425],{"className":12655},[67,947],[15,12657,955],{"className":12658},[954],[15,12660,12662],{"className":12661},[927],[15,12663,12665],{"className":12664,"style":962},[931],[15,12666],{},[15,12668,42],{"className":12669},[73],[15,12671],{"className":12672,"style":78},[77],[15,12674,1430],{"className":12675},[1527],[15,12677],{"className":12678,"style":78},[77],[15,12680,42],{"className":12681},[73],[15,12683],{"className":12684,"style":78},[77],[15,12686,12688,12691],{"className":12687},[67],[15,12689,12513],{"className":12690,"style":563},[67,68],[15,12692,12694],{"className":12693},[918],[15,12695,12697,12717],{"className":12696},[922,923],[15,12698,12700,12714],{"className":12699},[927],[15,12701,12703],{"className":12702,"style":932},[931],[15,12704,12705,12708],{"style":935},[15,12706],{"className":12707,"style":940},[939],[15,12709,12711],{"className":12710},[944,945,946,947],[15,12712,1439],{"className":12713},[67,68,947],[15,12715,955],{"className":12716},[954],[15,12718,12720],{"className":12719},[927],[15,12721,12723],{"className":12722,"style":962},[931],[15,12724],{},[15,12726,111],{"className":12727},[148],[15,12729],{"className":12730,"style":199},[77],[15,12732,602],{"className":12733},[203],[15,12735],{"className":12736,"style":199},[77],[15,12738,12740,12744,12812,12815,12818,12821,12861,12864,12867],{"className":12739},[58],[15,12741],{"className":12742,"style":12743},[62],"height:1.104em;vertical-align:-0.2997em;",[15,12745,12748,12754],{"className":12746},[12747],"mop",[15,12749,12537],{"className":12750,"style":12753},[12747,12751,12752],"op-symbol","small-op","position:relative;top:0em;",[15,12755,12757],{"className":12756},[918],[15,12758,12760,12803],{"className":12759},[922,923],[15,12761,12763,12800],{"className":12762},[927],[15,12764,12767,12788],{"className":12765,"style":12766},[931],"height:0.8043em;",[15,12768,12770,12773],{"style":12769},"top:-2.4003em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;",[15,12771],{"className":12772,"style":940},[939],[15,12774,12776],{"className":12775},[944,945,946,947],[15,12777,12779,12782,12785],{"className":12778},[67,947],[15,12780,1680],{"className":12781},[67,68,947],[15,12783,602],{"className":12784},[203,947],[15,12786,1425],{"className":12787},[67,947],[15,12789,12791,12794],{"style":12790},"top:-3.2029em;margin-right:0.05em;",[15,12792],{"className":12793,"style":940},[939],[15,12795,12797],{"className":12796},[944,945,946,947],[15,12798,1439],{"className":12799},[67,68,947],[15,12801,955],{"className":12802},[954],[15,12804,12806],{"className":12805},[927],[15,12807,12810],{"className":12808,"style":12809},[931],"height:0.2997em;",[15,12811],{},[15,12813],{"className":12814,"style":78},[77],[15,12816,98],{"className":12817,"style":128},[67,68],[15,12819,102],{"className":12820},[132],[15,12822,12824,12827],{"className":12823},[67],[15,12825,12513],{"className":12826,"style":563},[67,68],[15,12828,12830],{"className":12829},[918],[15,12831,12833,12853],{"className":12832},[922,923],[15,12834,12836,12850],{"className":12835},[927],[15,12837,12839],{"className":12838,"style":1731},[931],[15,12840,12841,12844],{"style":935},[15,12842],{"className":12843,"style":940},[939],[15,12845,12847],{"className":12846},[944,945,946,947],[15,12848,1680],{"className":12849},[67,68,947],[15,12851,955],{"className":12852},[954],[15,12854,12856],{"className":12855},[927],[15,12857,12859],{"className":12858,"style":962},[931],[15,12860],{},[15,12862],{"className":12863,"style":199},[77],[15,12865,170],{"className":12866},[203],[15,12868],{"className":12869,"style":199},[77],[15,12871,12873,12876,12923],{"className":12872},[58],[15,12874],{"className":12875,"style":124},[62],[15,12877,12879,12886],{"className":12878},[67],[15,12880,12882],{"className":12881},[67],[15,12883,12885],{"className":12884},[67,10365],"pa",[15,12887,12889],{"className":12888},[918],[15,12890,12892,12914],{"className":12891},[922,923],[15,12893,12895,12911],{"className":12894},[927],[15,12896,12899],{"className":12897,"style":12898},[931],"height:0.2175em;",[15,12900,12902,12905],{"style":12901},"top:-2.4559em;margin-right:0.05em;",[15,12903],{"className":12904,"style":940},[939],[15,12906,12908],{"className":12907},[944,945,946,947],[15,12909,1680],{"className":12910},[67,68,947],[15,12912,955],{"className":12913},[954],[15,12915,12917],{"className":12916},[927],[15,12918,12921],{"className":12919,"style":12920},[931],"height:0.2441em;",[15,12922],{},[15,12924,111],{"className":12925},[148],"\n即联合分布可写成每个变量在给定其父节点条件下的条件分布之乘积。",[11,12928,12929,12932,12933,13003,13004,13073,13074,431,13150,13219,13220,13597],{},[4656,12930,12931],{},"证明梗概","：由于 ",[15,12934,12936,12954],{"className":12935,"translate":19},[18],[15,12937,12939],{"className":12938},[23],[25,12940,12941],{"xmlns":27},[29,12942,12943,12951],{},[32,12944,12945],{},[863,12946,12947,12949],{},[35,12948,2454],{},[35,12950,1680],{},[47,12952,12953],{"encoding":49},"U_i",[15,12955,12957],{"className":12956,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,12958,12960,12963],{"className":12959},[58],[15,12961],{"className":12962,"style":1863},[62],[15,12964,12966,12969],{"className":12965},[67],[15,12967,2454],{"className":12968,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,12970,12972],{"className":12971},[918],[15,12973,12975,12995],{"className":12974},[922,923],[15,12976,12978,12992],{"className":12977},[927],[15,12979,12981],{"className":12980,"style":1731},[931],[15,12982,12983,12986],{"style":2581},[15,12984],{"className":12985,"style":940},[939],[15,12987,12989],{"className":12988},[944,945,946,947],[15,12990,1680],{"className":12991},[67,68,947],[15,12993,955],{"className":12994},[954],[15,12996,12998],{"className":12997},[927],[15,12999,13001],{"className":13000,"style":962},[931],[15,13002],{}," 相互独立，且 ",[15,13005,13007,13024],{"className":13006,"translate":19},[18],[15,13008,13010],{"className":13009},[23],[25,13011,13012],{"xmlns":27},[29,13013,13014,13022],{},[32,13015,13016],{},[863,13017,13018,13020],{},[35,13019,1341],{},[35,13021,1680],{},[47,13023,1981],{"encoding":49},[15,13025,13027],{"className":13026,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,13028,13030,13033],{"className":13029},[58],[15,13031],{"className":13032,"style":1863},[62],[15,13034,13036,13039],{"className":13035},[67],[15,13037,1341],{"className":13038,"style":82},[67,68],[15,13040,13042],{"className":13041},[918],[15,13043,13045,13065],{"className":13044},[922,923],[15,13046,13048,13062],{"className":13047},[927],[15,13049,13051],{"className":13050,"style":1731},[931],[15,13052,13053,13056],{"style":1497},[15,13054],{"className":13055,"style":940},[939],[15,13057,13059],{"className":13058},[944,945,946,947],[15,13060,1680],{"className":13061},[67,68,947],[15,13063,955],{"className":13064},[954],[15,13066,13068],{"className":13067},[927],[15,13069,13071],{"className":13070,"style":962},[931],[15,13072],{}," 仅是 ",[15,13075,13077,13098],{"className":13076,"translate":19},[18],[15,13078,13080],{"className":13079},[23],[25,13081,13082],{"xmlns":27},[29,13083,13084,13096],{},[32,13085,13086],{},[863,13087,13088,13094],{},[32,13089,13090,13092],{},[35,13091,98],{"mathvariant":878},[35,13093,10201],{"mathvariant":878},[35,13095,1680],{},[47,13097,10608],{"encoding":49},[15,13099,13101],{"className":13100,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,13102,13104,13107],{"className":13103},[58],[15,13105],{"className":13106,"style":1863},[62],[15,13108,13110,13116],{"className":13109},[67],[15,13111,13113],{"className":13112},[67],[15,13114,10366],{"className":13115},[67,10365],[15,13117,13119],{"className":13118},[918],[15,13120,13122,13142],{"className":13121},[922,923],[15,13123,13125,13139],{"className":13124},[927],[15,13126,13128],{"className":13127,"style":1731},[931],[15,13129,13130,13133],{"style":10381},[15,13131],{"className":13132,"style":940},[939],[15,13134,13136],{"className":13135},[944,945,946,947],[15,13137,1680],{"className":13138},[67,68,947],[15,13140,955],{"className":13141},[954],[15,13143,13145],{"className":13144},[927],[15,13146,13148],{"className":13147,"style":962},[931],[15,13149],{},[15,13151,13153,13170],{"className":13152,"translate":19},[18],[15,13154,13156],{"className":13155},[23],[25,13157,13158],{"xmlns":27},[29,13159,13160,13168],{},[32,13161,13162],{},[863,13163,13164,13166],{},[35,13165,2454],{},[35,13167,1680],{},[47,13169,12953],{"encoding":49},[15,13171,13173],{"className":13172,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,13174,13176,13179],{"className":13175},[58],[15,13177],{"className":13178,"style":1863},[62],[15,13180,13182,13185],{"className":13181},[67],[15,13183,2454],{"className":13184,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,13186,13188],{"className":13187},[918],[15,13189,13191,13211],{"className":13190},[922,923],[15,13192,13194,13208],{"className":13193},[927],[15,13195,13197],{"className":13196,"style":1731},[931],[15,13198,13199,13202],{"style":2581},[15,13200],{"className":13201,"style":940},[939],[15,13203,13205],{"className":13204},[944,945,946,947],[15,13206,1680],{"className":13207},[67,68,947],[15,13209,955],{"className":13210},[954],[15,13212,13214],{"className":13213},[927],[15,13215,13217],{"className":13216,"style":962},[931],[15,13218],{}," 的函数，按图的拓扑序（即父节点排在子节点之前的节点序列）逐一代入，可归纳证明 ",[15,13221,13223,13293],{"className":13222,"translate":19},[18],[15,13224,13226],{"className":13225},[23],[25,13227,13228],{"xmlns":27},[29,13229,13230,13290],{},[32,13231,13232,13238,13240,13242,13244,13246,13248,13250,13256,13258,13264,13267,13273,13276,13278,13280],{},[863,13233,13234,13236],{},[35,13235,1341],{},[35,13237,1680],{},[39,13239,236],{},[238,13241,240],{},[238,13243,240],{},[238,13245,240],{},[39,13247,236],{},[39,13249,1417],{"stretchy":101},[863,13251,13252,13254],{},[35,13253,1341],{},[35,13255,1689],{},[39,13257,8850],{},[863,13259,13260,13262],{},[35,13261,1341],{},[35,13263,1689],{},[238,13265,13266],{}," 非 ",[863,13268,13269,13271],{},[35,13270,1341],{},[35,13272,1680],{},[238,13274,13275],{}," 的后代",[39,13277,1442],{"stretchy":101},[39,13279,170],{},[863,13281,13282,13288],{},[32,13283,13284,13286],{},[35,13285,98],{"mathvariant":878},[35,13287,10201],{"mathvariant":878},[35,13289,1680],{},[47,13291,13292],{"encoding":49},"V_i \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp \\{V_j : V_j \\text{ 非 } V_i\\text{ 的后代}\\} \\mid \\mathrm{Pa}_i",[15,13294,13296,13357,13369,13427,13548],{"className":13295,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,13297,13299,13302,13342,13345,13348,13351,13354],{"className":13298},[58],[15,13300],{"className":13301,"style":7256},[62],[15,13303,13305,13308],{"className":13304},[67],[15,13306,1341],{"className":13307,"style":82},[67,68],[15,13309,13311],{"className":13310},[918],[15,13312,13314,13334],{"className":13313},[922,923],[15,13315,13317,13331],{"className":13316},[927],[15,13318,13320],{"className":13319,"style":1731},[931],[15,13321,13322,13325],{"style":1497},[15,13323],{"className":13324,"style":940},[939],[15,13326,13328],{"className":13327},[944,945,946,947],[15,13329,1680],{"className":13330},[67,68,947],[15,13332,955],{"className":13333},[954],[15,13335,13337],{"className":13336},[927],[15,13338,13340],{"className":13339,"style":962},[931],[15,13341],{},[15,13343],{"className":13344,"style":199},[77],[15,13346,236],{"className":13347},[203],[15,13349],{"className":13350,"style":274},[77],[15,13352],{"className":13353,"style":274},[77],[15,13355],{"className":13356,"style":274},[77],[15,13358,13360,13363,13366],{"className":13359},[58],[15,13361],{"className":13362,"style":261},[62],[15,13364,236],{"className":13365},[203],[15,13367],{"className":13368,"style":199},[77],[15,13370,13372,13375,13378,13418,13421,13424],{"className":13371},[58],[15,13373],{"className":13374,"style":1709},[62],[15,13376,1417],{"className":13377},[132],[15,13379,13381,13384],{"className":13380},[67],[15,13382,1341],{"className":13383,"style":82},[67,68],[15,13385,13387],{"className":13386},[918],[15,13388,13390,13410],{"className":13389},[922,923],[15,13391,13393,13407],{"className":13392},[927],[15,13394,13396],{"className":13395,"style":1731},[931],[15,13397,13398,13401],{"style":1497},[15,13399],{"className":13400,"style":940},[939],[15,13402,13404],{"className":13403},[944,945,946,947],[15,13405,1689],{"className":13406,"style":1789},[67,68,947],[15,13408,955],{"className":13409},[954],[15,13411,13413],{"className":13412},[927],[15,13414,13416],{"className":13415,"style":1799},[931],[15,13417],{},[15,13419],{"className":13420,"style":199},[77],[15,13422,8850],{"className":13423},[203],[15,13425],{"className":13426,"style":199},[77],[15,13428,13430,13433,13473,13486,13526,13536,13539,13542,13545],{"className":13429},[58],[15,13431],{"className":13432,"style":1709},[62],[15,13434,13436,13439],{"className":13435},[67],[15,13437,1341],{"className":13438,"style":82},[67,68],[15,13440,13442],{"className":13441},[918],[15,13443,13445,13465],{"className":13444},[922,923],[15,13446,13448,13462],{"className":13447},[927],[15,13449,13451],{"className":13450,"style":1731},[931],[15,13452,13453,13456],{"style":1497},[15,13454],{"className":13455,"style":940},[939],[15,13457,13459],{"className":13458},[944,945,946,947],[15,13460,1689],{"className":13461,"style":1789},[67,68,947],[15,13463,955],{"className":13464},[954],[15,13466,13468],{"className":13467},[927],[15,13469,13471],{"className":13470,"style":1799},[931],[15,13472],{},[15,13474,13476,13479,13483],{"className":13475},[67,6301],[15,13477,3916],{"className":13478},[67],[15,13480,13482],{"className":13481},[67,7745],"非",[15,13484,3916],{"className":13485},[67],[15,13487,13489,13492],{"className":13488},[67],[15,13490,1341],{"className":13491,"style":82},[67,68],[15,13493,13495],{"className":13494},[918],[15,13496,13498,13518],{"className":13497},[922,923],[15,13499,13501,13515],{"className":13500},[927],[15,13502,13504],{"className":13503,"style":1731},[931],[15,13505,13506,13509],{"style":1497},[15,13507],{"className":13508,"style":940},[939],[15,13510,13512],{"className":13511},[944,945,946,947],[15,13513,1680],{"className":13514},[67,68,947],[15,13516,955],{"className":13517},[954],[15,13519,13521],{"className":13520},[927],[15,13522,13524],{"className":13523,"style":962},[931],[15,13525],{},[15,13527,13529,13532],{"className":13528},[67,6301],[15,13530,3916],{"className":13531},[67],[15,13533,13535],{"className":13534},[67,7745],"的后代",[15,13537,1442],{"className":13538},[148],[15,13540],{"className":13541,"style":199},[77],[15,13543,170],{"className":13544},[203],[15,13546],{"className":13547,"style":199},[77],[15,13549,13551,13554],{"className":13550},[58],[15,13552],{"className":13553,"style":1863},[62],[15,13555,13557,13563],{"className":13556},[67],[15,13558,13560],{"className":13559},[67],[15,13561,10366],{"className":13562},[67,10365],[15,13564,13566],{"className":13565},[918],[15,13567,13569,13589],{"className":13568},[922,923],[15,13570,13572,13586],{"className":13571},[927],[15,13573,13575],{"className":13574,"style":1731},[931],[15,13576,13577,13580],{"style":10381},[15,13578],{"className":13579,"style":940},[939],[15,13581,13583],{"className":13582},[944,945,946,947],[15,13584,1680],{"className":13585},[67,68,947],[15,13587,955],{"className":13588},[954],[15,13590,13592],{"className":13591},[927],[15,13593,13595],{"className":13594,"style":962},[931],[15,13596],{},"，这正是定理 1.1 中马尔可夫性假设的来源，也是贝叶斯网络理论中「局部马尔可夫性」与「因子分解」等价性定理的因果版本。",[11,13599,13600,13601,13604],{},"这一定理揭示了 SCM 与传统贝叶斯网络的联系与区别：",[305,13602,13603],{},"二者在纯观测层面（第一层关联）诱导出相同的概率分解公式","，唯一的区别在于 SCM 额外赋予了每条边「直接原因」的因果语义，从而支持贝叶斯网络本身不具备的干预与反事实计算——这一区别将在第三部分具体展开。",[1309,13606,13608],{"id":13607},"_23-洒水器模型的-scm-表示","2.3 洒水器模型的 SCM 表示",[11,13610,13611,13612,505],{},"沿用例 1.1 的因果图，一个具体的马尔可夫型 SCM 实例可定义如下。设内生变量均为二元 ",[15,13613,13615,13637],{"className":13614,"translate":19},[18],[15,13616,13618],{"className":13617},[23],[25,13619,13620],{"xmlns":27},[29,13621,13622,13634],{},[32,13623,13624,13626,13628,13630,13632],{},[39,13625,1417],{"stretchy":101},[1423,13627,2457],{},[39,13629,42],{"separator":41},[1423,13631,1425],{},[39,13633,1442],{"stretchy":101},[47,13635,13636],{"encoding":49},"\\{0,1\\}",[15,13638,13640],{"className":13639,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,13641,13643,13646,13649,13652,13655,13658,13661],{"className":13642},[58],[15,13644],{"className":13645,"style":124},[62],[15,13647,1417],{"className":13648},[132],[15,13650,2457],{"className":13651},[67],[15,13653,42],{"className":13654},[73],[15,13656],{"className":13657,"style":78},[77],[15,13659,1425],{"className":13660},[67],[15,13662,1442],{"className":13663},[148],[15,13665,13668],{"className":13666,"translate":19},[13667],"katex-display",[15,13669,13671,14332],{"className":13670,"translate":19},[18],[15,13672,13674],{"className":13673},[23],[25,13675,13677],{"xmlns":27,"display":13676},"block",[29,13678,13679,14329],{},[13680,13681,13685,13768,13954,14155],"mtable",{"rowspacing":13682,"columnalign":13683,"columnspacing":13684},"0.25em","right left right left","0em 1em 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&:= U_S, &U_S &\\sim \\mathrm{Bernoulli}(0.3) \\\\\nR &:= \\mathbb{1}[S = 1] \\cdot U_R^{(1)} + \\mathbb{1}[S=0]\\cdot U_R^{(0)}, &U_R^{(1)} &\\sim \\mathrm{Bernoulli}(0.8),\\ U_R^{(0)} \\sim \\mathrm{Bernoulli}(0.1)\\\\\nSp &:= \\mathbb{1}[S=1]\\cdot U_{Sp}^{(1)} + \\mathbb{1}[S=0]\\cdot U_{Sp}^{(0)}, &U_{Sp}^{(1)} &\\sim \\mathrm{Bernoulli}(0.1),\\ U_{Sp}^{(0)} \\sim \\mathrm{Bernoulli}(0.6)\\\\\nW &:= \\max(R, Sp) \\cdot U_W + \\big(1-\\max(R,Sp)\\big)\\cdot U_W', &U_W &\\sim \\mathrm{Bernoulli}(0.95),\\ U_W' \\sim 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",[15,15901,15903,15916],{"className":15902,"translate":19},[18],[15,15904,15906],{"className":15905},[23],[25,15907,15908],{"xmlns":27},[29,15909,15910,15914],{},[32,15911,15912],{},[35,15913,2454],{},[47,15915,2454],{"encoding":49},[15,15917,15919],{"className":15918,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,15920,15922,15925],{"className":15921},[58],[15,15923],{"className":15924,"style":299},[62],[15,15926,2454],{"className":15927,"style":2566},[67,68]," 变量相互独立。这一具体赋值把因果图 ",[15,15930,15932,15945],{"className":15931,"translate":19},[18],[15,15933,15935],{"className":15934},[23],[25,15936,15937],{"xmlns":27},[29,15938,15939,15943],{},[32,15940,15941],{},[35,15942,1334],{},[47,15944,1334],{"encoding":49},[15,15946,15948],{"className":15947,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,15949,15951,15954],{"className":15950},[58],[15,15952],{"className":15953,"style":299},[62],[15,15955,1334],{"className":15956},[67,68]," 「填满」为一个可计算的生成过程：给定外生变量的一次采样（一次「自然实现」），内生变量的取值随之",[305,15959,15960],{},"唯一确定","。这正是结构方程「确定性」这一特征的体现——随机性完全由外生变量 ",[15,15963,15965,15978],{"className":15964,"translate":19},[18],[15,15966,15968],{"className":15967},[23],[25,15969,15970],{"xmlns":27},[29,15971,15972,15976],{},[32,15973,15974],{},[35,15975,2454],{},[47,15977,2454],{"encoding":49},[15,15979,15981],{"className":15980,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,15982,15984,15987],{"className":15983},[58],[15,15985],{"className":15986,"style":299},[62],[15,15988,2454],{"className":15989,"style":2566},[67,68]," 承担，内生变量之间的关系在给定 ",[15,15992,15994,16007],{"className":15993,"translate":19},[18],[15,15995,15997],{"className":15996},[23],[25,15998,15999],{"xmlns":27},[29,16000,16001,16005],{},[32,16002,16003],{},[35,16004,2454],{},[47,16006,2454],{"encoding":49},[15,16008,16010],{"className":16009,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,16011,16013,16016],{"className":16012},[58],[15,16014],{"className":16015,"style":299},[62],[15,16017,2454],{"className":16018,"style":2566},[67,68]," 后不再含有任何随机成分。这一设计并非技术上的简化，而是使后文反事实推理（第三部分 3.3 节）得以定义的必要前提：唯有把所有随机性封装进 ",[15,16021,16023,16036],{"className":16022,"translate":19},[18],[15,16024,16026],{"className":16025},[23],[25,16027,16028],{"xmlns":27},[29,16029,16030,16034],{},[32,16031,16032],{},[35,16033,2454],{},[47,16035,2454],{"encoding":49},[15,16037,16039],{"className":16038,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,16040,16042,16045],{"className":16041},[58],[15,16043],{"className":16044,"style":299},[62],[15,16046,2454],{"className":16047,"style":2566},[67,68],"，「同一个体在不同假设情景下会如何」这一问题才有明确的数学对象可以对应。",[1305,16050,16051],{"id":16051},"结构方程与因果计算",[11,16053,16054,16055,16099],{},"第二部分给出的 SCM 已经具备了计算观测分布 ",[15,16056,16058,16078],{"className":16057,"translate":19},[18],[15,16059,16061],{"className":16060},[23],[25,16062,16063],{"xmlns":27},[29,16064,16065,16075],{},[32,16066,16067,16069,16071,16073],{},[35,16068,98],{},[39,16070,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,16072,1341],{},[39,16074,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,16076,16077],{"encoding":49},"P(V)",[15,16079,16081],{"className":16080,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,16082,16084,16087,16090,16093,16096],{"className":16083},[58],[15,16085],{"className":16086,"style":124},[62],[15,16088,98],{"className":16089,"style":128},[67,68],[15,16091,102],{"className":16092},[132],[15,16094,1341],{"className":16095,"style":82},[67,68],[15,16097,111],{"className":16098},[148]," 的全部要素。本部分讨论结构方程如何进一步支持第二、三层的因果计算。",[1309,16101,16103],{"id":16102},"_31-结构方程的非对称性","3.1 结构方程的非对称性",[1314,16105,16107],{"title":16106},"定义 3.1（结构方程 vs. 代数方程）",[11,16108,16109,16110,16178,16179,16245,16246,16249,16250,16253,16254,16282,16283,16311,16312,16420,16421,811,16472,16500,16501,16504,16505,16533,16534,16562,16563,16566],{},"形如 ",[15,16111,16113,16139],{"className":16112,"translate":19},[18],[15,16114,16116],{"className":16115},[23],[25,16117,16118],{"xmlns":27},[29,16119,16120,16136],{},[32,16121,16122,16124,16126,16128,16130,16132,16134],{},[35,16123,45],{},[39,16125,8850],{},[39,16127,602],{},[35,16129,5717],{},[39,16131,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,16133,37],{},[39,16135,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,16137,16138],{"encoding":49},"Y := f(X)",[15,16140,16142,16160],{"className":16141,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,16143,16145,16148,16151,16154,16157],{"className":16144},[58],[15,16146],{"className":16147,"style":299},[62],[15,16149,45],{"className":16150,"style":82},[67,68],[15,16152],{"className":16153,"style":199},[77],[15,16155,8886],{"className":16156},[203],[15,16158],{"className":16159,"style":199},[77],[15,16161,16163,16166,16169,16172,16175],{"className":16162},[58],[15,16164],{"className":16165,"style":124},[62],[15,16167,5717],{"className":16168,"style":5765},[67,68],[15,16170,102],{"className":16171},[132],[15,16173,37],{"className":16174,"style":69},[67,68],[15,16176,111],{"className":16177},[148]," 的结构方程与代数方程 ",[15,16180,16182,16206],{"className":16181,"translate":19},[18],[15,16183,16185],{"className":16184},[23],[25,16186,16187],{"xmlns":27},[29,16188,16189,16203],{},[32,16190,16191,16193,16195,16197,16199,16201],{},[35,16192,45],{},[39,16194,602],{},[35,16196,5717],{},[39,16198,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,16200,37],{},[39,16202,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,16204,16205],{"encoding":49},"Y = f(X)",[15,16207,16209,16227],{"className":16208,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,16210,16212,16215,16218,16221,16224],{"className":16211},[58],[15,16213],{"className":16214,"style":299},[62],[15,16216,45],{"className":16217,"style":82},[67,68],[15,16219],{"className":16220,"style":199},[77],[15,16222,602],{"className":16223},[203],[15,16225],{"className":16226,"style":199},[77],[15,16228,16230,16233,16236,16239,16242],{"className":16229},[58],[15,16231],{"className":16232,"style":124},[62],[15,16234,5717],{"className":16235,"style":5765},[67,68],[15,16237,102],{"className":16238},[132],[15,16240,37],{"className":16241,"style":69},[67,68],[15,16243,111],{"className":16244},[148]," 在数值上等价，但语义不同：结构方程蕴含一种非对称的",[305,16247,16248],{},"生成关系","，规定右边变量的取值决定左边变量的取值，而这一决定关系",[305,16251,16252],{},"不可逆","——即便 ",[15,16255,16257,16270],{"className":16256,"translate":19},[18],[15,16258,16260],{"className":16259},[23],[25,16261,16262],{"xmlns":27},[29,16263,16264,16268],{},[32,16265,16266],{},[35,16267,5717],{},[47,16269,5717],{"encoding":49},[15,16271,16273],{"className":16272,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,16274,16276,16279],{"className":16275},[58],[15,16277],{"className":16278,"style":4446},[62],[15,16280,5717],{"className":16281,"style":5765},[67,68]," 可逆，从 ",[15,16284,16286,16299],{"className":16285,"translate":19},[18],[15,16287,16289],{"className":16288},[23],[25,16290,16291],{"xmlns":27},[29,16292,16293,16297],{},[32,16294,16295],{},[35,16296,534],{},[47,16298,534],{"encoding":49},[15,16300,16302],{"className":16301,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,16303,16305,16308],{"className":16304},[58],[15,16306],{"className":16307,"style":6422},[62],[15,16309,534],{"className":16310,"style":563},[67,68]," 反解出 ",[15,16313,16315,16347],{"className":16314,"translate":19},[18],[15,16316,16318],{"className":16317},[23],[25,16319,16320],{"xmlns":27},[29,16321,16322,16344],{},[32,16323,16324,16326,16328,16338,16340,16342],{},[35,16325,539],{},[39,16327,602],{},[872,16329,16330,16332],{},[35,16331,5717],{},[32,16333,16334,16336],{},[39,16335,14210],{},[1423,16337,1425],{},[39,16339,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,16341,534],{},[39,16343,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,16345,16346],{"encoding":49},"x = f^{-1}(y)",[15,16348,16350,16368],{"className":16349,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,16351,16353,16356,16359,16362,16365],{"className":16352},[58],[15,16354],{"className":16355,"style":635},[62],[15,16357,539],{"className":16358},[67,68],[15,16360],{"className":16361,"style":199},[77],[15,16363,602],{"className":16364},[203],[15,16366],{"className":16367,"style":199},[77],[15,16369,16371,16375,16411,16414,16417],{"className":16370},[58],[15,16372],{"className":16373,"style":16374},[62],"height:1.0641em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[15,16376,16378,16381],{"className":16377},[67],[15,16379,5717],{"className":16380,"style":5765},[67,68],[15,16382,16384],{"className":16383},[918],[15,16385,16387],{"className":16386},[922],[15,16388,16390],{"className":16389},[927],[15,16391,16394],{"className":16392,"style":16393},[931],"height:0.8141em;",[15,16395,16396,16399],{"style":1002},[15,16397],{"className":16398,"style":940},[939],[15,16400,16402],{"className":16401},[944,945,946,947],[15,16403,16405,16408],{"className":16404},[67,947],[15,16406,14210],{"className":16407},[67,947],[15,16409,1425],{"className":16410},[67,947],[15,16412,102],{"className":16413},[132],[15,16415,534],{"className":16416,"style":563},[67,68],[15,16418,111],{"className":16419},[148]," 得到的也只是「给定 ",[15,16422,16424,16442],{"className":16423,"translate":19},[18],[15,16425,16427],{"className":16426},[23],[25,16428,16429],{"xmlns":27},[29,16430,16431,16439],{},[32,16432,16433,16435,16437],{},[35,16434,45],{},[39,16436,602],{},[35,16438,534],{},[47,16440,16441],{"encoding":49},"Y=y",[15,16443,16445,16463],{"className":16444,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,16446,16448,16451,16454,16457,16460],{"className":16447},[58],[15,16449],{"className":16450,"style":299},[62],[15,16452,45],{"className":16453,"style":82},[67,68],[15,16455],{"className":16456,"style":199},[77],[15,16458,602],{"className":16459},[203],[15,16461],{"className":16462,"style":199},[77],[15,16464,16466,16469],{"className":16465},[58],[15,16467],{"className":16468,"style":6422},[62],[15,16470,534],{"className":16471,"style":563},[67,68],[15,16473,16475,16488],{"className":16474,"translate":19},[18],[15,16476,16478],{"className":16477},[23],[25,16479,16480],{"xmlns":27},[29,16481,16482,16486],{},[32,16483,16484],{},[35,16485,37],{},[47,16487,37],{"encoding":49},[15,16489,16491],{"className":16490,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,16492,16494,16497],{"className":16493},[58],[15,16495],{"className":16496,"style":299},[62],[15,16498,37],{"className":16499,"style":69},[67,68]," 的取值应为多少」这一",[305,16502,16503],{},"代数","关系，而非「改变 ",[15,16506,16508,16521],{"className":16507,"translate":19},[18],[15,16509,16511],{"className":16510},[23],[25,16512,16513],{"xmlns":27},[29,16514,16515,16519],{},[32,16516,16517],{},[35,16518,37],{},[47,16520,37],{"encoding":49},[15,16522,16524],{"className":16523,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,16525,16527,16530],{"className":16526},[58],[15,16528],{"className":16529,"style":299},[62],[15,16531,37],{"className":16532,"style":69},[67,68]," 会如何改变 ",[15,16535,16537,16550],{"className":16536,"translate":19},[18],[15,16538,16540],{"className":16539},[23],[25,16541,16542],{"xmlns":27},[29,16543,16544,16548],{},[32,16545,16546],{},[35,16547,45],{},[47,16549,45],{"encoding":49},[15,16551,16553],{"className":16552,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,16554,16556,16559],{"className":16555},[58],[15,16557],{"className":16558,"style":299},[62],[15,16560,45],{"className":16561,"style":82},[67,68],"」这一",[305,16564,16565],{},"因果","关系的镜像。",[1314,16568,16570],{"title":16569},"例 3.1（欧姆定律的因果解读）",[11,16571,16572,16573,16601,16602,16630,16631,16696,16697,16755,16756,16819,16820,16823,16824,16917,16918,4327,16921,16949,16950,17047,17048,17076,17077,17139,17140,2247],{},"设某电路中电压源固定输出 ",[15,16574,16576,16589],{"className":16575,"translate":19},[18],[15,16577,16579],{"className":16578},[23],[25,16580,16581],{"xmlns":27},[29,16582,16583,16587],{},[32,16584,16585],{},[35,16586,1341],{},[47,16588,1341],{"encoding":49},[15,16590,16592],{"className":16591,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,16593,16595,16598],{"className":16594},[58],[15,16596],{"className":16597,"style":299},[62],[15,16599,1341],{"className":16600,"style":82},[67,68],"，电阻为 ",[15,16603,16605,16618],{"className":16604,"translate":19},[18],[15,16606,16608],{"className":16607},[23],[25,16609,16610],{"xmlns":27},[29,16611,16612,16616],{},[32,16613,16614],{},[35,16615,3774],{},[47,16617,3774],{"encoding":49},[15,16619,16621],{"className":16620,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,16622,16624,16627],{"className":16623},[58],[15,16625],{"className":16626,"style":299},[62],[15,16628,3774],{"className":16629,"style":3833},[67,68],"，依据电路物理机制，电流由前两者共同决定：结构方程应写作\n",[15,16632,16634,16660],{"className":16633,"translate":19},[18],[15,16635,16637],{"className":16636},[23],[25,16638,16639],{"xmlns":27},[29,16640,16641,16657],{},[32,16642,16643,16646,16648,16650,16652,16655],{},[35,16644,16645],{},"I",[39,16647,8850],{},[39,16649,602],{},[35,16651,1341],{},[35,16653,16654],{"mathvariant":878},"\u002F",[35,16656,3774],{},[47,16658,16659],{"encoding":49},"I := V\u002FR",[15,16661,16663,16681],{"className":16662,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,16664,16666,16669,16672,16675,16678],{"className":16665},[58],[15,16667],{"className":16668,"style":299},[62],[15,16670,16645],{"className":16671,"style":69},[67,68],[15,16673],{"className":16674,"style":199},[77],[15,16676,8886],{"className":16677},[203],[15,16679],{"className":16680,"style":199},[77],[15,16682,16684,16687,16690,16693],{"className":16683},[58],[15,16685],{"className":16686,"style":124},[62],[15,16688,1341],{"className":16689,"style":82},[67,68],[15,16691,16654],{"className":16692},[67],[15,16694,3774],{"className":16695,"style":3833},[67,68],"\n而非 ",[15,16698,16700,16722],{"className":16699,"translate":19},[18],[15,16701,16703],{"className":16702},[23],[25,16704,16705],{"xmlns":27},[29,16706,16707,16719],{},[32,16708,16709,16711,16713,16715,16717],{},[35,16710,1341],{},[39,16712,8850],{},[39,16714,602],{},[35,16716,16645],{},[35,16718,3774],{},[47,16720,16721],{"encoding":49},"V := IR",[15,16723,16725,16743],{"className":16724,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,16726,16728,16731,16734,16737,16740],{"className":16727},[58],[15,16729],{"className":16730,"style":299},[62],[15,16732,1341],{"className":16733,"style":82},[67,68],[15,16735],{"className":16736,"style":199},[77],[15,16738,8886],{"className":16739},[203],[15,16741],{"className":16742,"style":199},[77],[15,16744,16746,16749,16752],{"className":16745},[58],[15,16747],{"className":16748,"style":299},[62],[15,16750,16645],{"className":16751,"style":69},[67,68],[15,16753,3774],{"className":16754,"style":3833},[67,68]," 或 ",[15,16757,16759,16783],{"className":16758,"translate":19},[18],[15,16760,16762],{"className":16761},[23],[25,16763,16764],{"xmlns":27},[29,16765,16766,16780],{},[32,16767,16768,16770,16772,16774,16776,16778],{},[35,16769,3774],{},[39,16771,8850],{},[39,16773,602],{},[35,16775,1341],{},[35,16777,16654],{"mathvariant":878},[35,16779,16645],{},[47,16781,16782],{"encoding":49},"R := V\u002FI",[15,16784,16786,16804],{"className":16785,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,16787,16789,16792,16795,16798,16801],{"className":16788},[58],[15,16790],{"className":16791,"style":299},[62],[15,16793,3774],{"className":16794,"style":3833},[67,68],[15,16796],{"className":16797,"style":199},[77],[15,16799,8886],{"className":16800},[203],[15,16802],{"className":16803,"style":199},[77],[15,16805,16807,16810,16813,16816],{"className":16806},[58],[15,16808],{"className":16809,"style":124},[62],[15,16811,1341],{"className":16812,"style":82},[67,68],[15,16814,16654],{"className":16815},[67],[15,16817,16645],{"className":16818,"style":69},[67,68],"。三个代数式在数值上完全等价，但只有前者正确刻画了该电路的",[305,16821,16822],{},"生成机制","。这一区分的实践意义在于：若外部操作者通过某种装置强行将电流设定为 ",[15,16825,16827,16849],{"className":16826,"translate":19},[18],[15,16828,16830],{"className":16829},[23],[25,16831,16832],{"xmlns":27},[29,16833,16834,16846],{},[32,16835,16836,16838,16840],{},[35,16837,16645],{},[39,16839,602],{},[863,16841,16842,16844],{},[35,16843,1680],{},[1423,16845,2457],{},[47,16847,16848],{"encoding":49},"I = i_0",[15,16850,16852,16870],{"className":16851,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,16853,16855,16858,16861,16864,16867],{"className":16854},[58],[15,16856],{"className":16857,"style":299},[62],[15,16859,16645],{"className":16860,"style":69},[67,68],[15,16862],{"className":16863,"style":199},[77],[15,16865,602],{"className":16866},[203],[15,16868],{"className":16869,"style":199},[77],[15,16871,16873,16877],{"className":16872},[58],[15,16874],{"className":16875,"style":16876},[62],"height:0.8095em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[15,16878,16880,16883],{"className":16879},[67],[15,16881,1680],{"className":16882},[67,68],[15,16884,16886],{"className":16885},[918],[15,16887,16889,16909],{"className":16888},[922,923],[15,16890,16892,16906],{"className":16891},[927],[15,16893,16895],{"className":16894,"style":1494},[931],[15,16896,16897,16900],{"style":7277},[15,16898],{"className":16899,"style":940},[939],[15,16901,16903],{"className":16902},[944,945,946,947],[15,16904,2457],{"className":16905},[67,947],[15,16907,955],{"className":16908},[954],[15,16910,16912],{"className":16911},[927],[15,16913,16915],{"className":16914,"style":962},[931],[15,16916],{},"（例如接入恒流源），依据正确的结构方程，会导致",[305,16919,16920],{},"电压",[15,16922,16924,16937],{"className":16923,"translate":19},[18],[15,16925,16927],{"className":16926},[23],[25,16928,16929],{"xmlns":27},[29,16930,16931,16935],{},[32,16932,16933],{},[35,16934,1341],{},[47,16936,1341],{"encoding":49},[15,16938,16940],{"className":16939,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,16941,16943,16946],{"className":16942},[58],[15,16944],{"className":16945,"style":299},[62],[15,16947,1341],{"className":16948,"style":82},[67,68]," 相应改变以满足 ",[15,16951,16953,16977],{"className":16952,"translate":19},[18],[15,16954,16956],{"className":16955},[23],[25,16957,16958],{"xmlns":27},[29,16959,16960,16974],{},[32,16961,16962,16964,16966,16972],{},[35,16963,1341],{},[39,16965,602],{},[863,16967,16968,16970],{},[35,16969,1680],{},[1423,16971,2457],{},[35,16973,3774],{},[47,16975,16976],{"encoding":49},"V = i_0 R",[15,16978,16980,16998],{"className":16979,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,16981,16983,16986,16989,16992,16995],{"className":16982},[58],[15,16984],{"className":16985,"style":299},[62],[15,16987,1341],{"className":16988,"style":82},[67,68],[15,16990],{"className":16991,"style":199},[77],[15,16993,602],{"className":16994},[203],[15,16996],{"className":16997,"style":199},[77],[15,16999,17001,17004,17044],{"className":17000},[58],[15,17002],{"className":17003,"style":1863},[62],[15,17005,17007,17010],{"className":17006},[67],[15,17008,1680],{"className":17009},[67,68],[15,17011,17013],{"className":17012},[918],[15,17014,17016,17036],{"className":17015},[922,923],[15,17017,17019,17033],{"className":17018},[927],[15,17020,17022],{"className":17021,"style":1494},[931],[15,17023,17024,17027],{"style":7277},[15,17025],{"className":17026,"style":940},[939],[15,17028,17030],{"className":17029},[944,945,946,947],[15,17031,2457],{"className":17032},[67,947],[15,17034,955],{"className":17035},[954],[15,17037,17039],{"className":17038},[927],[15,17040,17042],{"className":17041,"style":962},[931],[15,17043],{},[15,17045,3774],{"className":17046,"style":3833},[67,68],"，而电阻 ",[15,17049,17051,17064],{"className":17050,"translate":19},[18],[15,17052,17054],{"className":17053},[23],[25,17055,17056],{"xmlns":27},[29,17057,17058,17062],{},[32,17059,17060],{},[35,17061,3774],{},[47,17063,3774],{"encoding":49},[15,17065,17067],{"className":17066,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,17068,17070,17073],{"className":17069},[58],[15,17071],{"className":17072,"style":299},[62],[15,17074,3774],{"className":17075,"style":3833},[67,68]," 不受影响；若错误地采用 ",[15,17078,17080,17103],{"className":17079,"translate":19},[18],[15,17081,17083],{"className":17082},[23],[25,17084,17085],{"xmlns":27},[29,17086,17087,17101],{},[32,17088,17089,17091,17093,17095,17097,17099],{},[35,17090,3774],{},[39,17092,8850],{},[39,17094,602],{},[35,17096,1341],{},[35,17098,16654],{"mathvariant":878},[35,17100,16645],{},[47,17102,16782],{"encoding":49},[15,17104,17106,17124],{"className":17105,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,17107,17109,17112,17115,17118,17121],{"className":17108},[58],[15,17110],{"className":17111,"style":299},[62],[15,17113,3774],{"className":17114,"style":3833},[67,68],[15,17116],{"className":17117,"style":199},[77],[15,17119,8886],{"className":17120},[203],[15,17122],{"className":17123,"style":199},[77],[15,17125,17127,17130,17133,17136],{"className":17126},[58],[15,17128],{"className":17129,"style":124},[62],[15,17131,1341],{"className":17132,"style":82},[67,68],[15,17134,16654],{"className":17135},[67],[15,17137,16645],{"className":17138,"style":69},[67,68]," 作为该情境下的结构方程，则会得出「电阻会因电流改变而改变」这一荒谬结论。",[305,17141,17142],{},"选对结构方程的方向，等价于选对了系统中「谁是自变量、谁是因变量」这一物理事实，这一信息无法从代数关系本身获得，必须来自对系统机制的外部知识",[1309,17144,17146],{"id":17145},"_32-干预与-do-算子","3.2 干预与 do-算子",[1314,17148,17150],{"title":17149},"定义 3.2（干预，do-operator）",[11,17151,11046,17152,17264,17265,17316,17317,17387,17388,4327,17391,17585,17586,17816,17817,17845,17846,18033],{},[15,17153,17155,17195],{"className":17154,"translate":19},[18],[15,17156,17158],{"className":17157},[23],[25,17159,17160],{"xmlns":27},[29,17161,17162,17192],{},[32,17163,17164,17166,17168,17170,17172,17174,17176,17178,17180,17182,17184,17186,17188,17190],{},[35,17165,9452],{},[39,17167,602],{},[39,17169,2441],{"stretchy":101},[35,17171,2454],{},[39,17173,42],{"separator":41},[35,17175,1341],{},[39,17177,42],{"separator":41},[35,17179,9467],{},[39,17181,42],{"separator":41},[35,17183,98],{},[39,17185,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,17187,2454],{},[39,17189,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,17191,2489],{"stretchy":101},[47,17193,17194],{"encoding":49},"M = \\langle U,V,F,P(U)\\rangle",[15,17196,17198,17216],{"className":17197,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,17199,17201,17204,17207,17210,17213],{"className":17200},[58],[15,17202],{"className":17203,"style":299},[62],[15,17205,9452],{"className":17206,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,17208],{"className":17209,"style":199},[77],[15,17211,602],{"className":17212},[203],[15,17214],{"className":17215,"style":199},[77],[15,17217,17219,17222,17225,17228,17231,17234,17237,17240,17243,17246,17249,17252,17255,17258,17261],{"className":17218},[58],[15,17220],{"className":17221,"style":124},[62],[15,17223,2441],{"className":17224},[132],[15,17226,2454],{"className":17227,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,17229,42],{"className":17230},[73],[15,17232],{"className":17233,"style":78},[77],[15,17235,1341],{"className":17236,"style":82},[67,68],[15,17238,42],{"className":17239},[73],[15,17241],{"className":17242,"style":78},[77],[15,17244,9467],{"className":17245,"style":128},[67,68],[15,17247,42],{"className":17248},[73],[15,17250],{"className":17251,"style":78},[77],[15,17253,98],{"className":17254,"style":128},[67,68],[15,17256,102],{"className":17257},[132],[15,17259,2454],{"className":17260,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,17262,9552],{"className":17263},[148],"，对变量 ",[15,17266,17268,17286],{"className":17267,"translate":19},[18],[15,17269,17271],{"className":17270},[23],[25,17272,17273],{"xmlns":27},[29,17274,17275,17283],{},[32,17276,17277,17279,17281],{},[35,17278,37],{},[39,17280,1694],{},[35,17282,1341],{},[47,17284,17285],{"encoding":49},"X \\in V",[15,17287,17289,17307],{"className":17288,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,17290,17292,17295,17298,17301,17304],{"className":17291},[58],[15,17293],{"className":17294,"style":6635},[62],[15,17296,37],{"className":17297,"style":69},[67,68],[15,17299],{"className":17300,"style":199},[77],[15,17302,1694],{"className":17303},[203],[15,17305],{"className":17306,"style":199},[77],[15,17308,17310,17313],{"className":17309},[58],[15,17311],{"className":17312,"style":299},[62],[15,17314,1341],{"className":17315,"style":82},[67,68]," 施加干预 ",[15,17318,17320,17345],{"className":17319,"translate":19},[18],[15,17321,17323],{"className":17322},[23],[25,17324,17325],{"xmlns":27},[29,17326,17327,17343],{},[32,17328,17329,17331,17333,17335,17337,17339,17341],{},[35,17330,696],{},[35,17332,699],{},[39,17334,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,17336,37],{},[39,17338,602],{},[35,17340,539],{},[39,17342,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,17344,8065],{"encoding":49},[15,17346,17348,17375],{"className":17347,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,17349,17351,17354,17357,17360,17363,17366,17369,17372],{"className":17350},[58],[15,17352],{"className":17353,"style":124},[62],[15,17355,696],{"className":17356},[67,68],[15,17358,699],{"className":17359},[67,68],[15,17361,102],{"className":17362},[132],[15,17364,37],{"className":17365,"style":69},[67,68],[15,17367],{"className":17368,"style":199},[77],[15,17370,602],{"className":17371},[203],[15,17373],{"className":17374,"style":199},[77],[15,17376,17378,17381,17384],{"className":17377},[58],[15,17379],{"className":17380,"style":124},[62],[15,17382,539],{"className":17383},[67,68],[15,17385,111],{"className":17386},[148],"，得到一个新的",[305,17389,17390],{},"子模型（submodel）",[15,17392,17394,17442],{"className":17393,"translate":19},[18],[15,17395,17397],{"className":17396},[23],[25,17398,17399],{"xmlns":27},[29,17400,17401,17439],{},[32,17402,17403,17409,17411,17413,17415,17417,17419,17421,17427,17429,17431,17433,17435,17437],{},[863,17404,17405,17407],{},[35,17406,9452],{},[35,17408,539],{},[39,17410,602],{},[39,17412,2441],{"stretchy":101},[35,17414,2454],{},[39,17416,42],{"separator":41},[35,17418,1341],{},[39,17420,42],{"separator":41},[863,17422,17423,17425],{},[35,17424,9467],{},[35,17426,539],{},[39,17428,42],{"separator":41},[35,17430,98],{},[39,17432,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,17434,2454],{},[39,17436,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,17438,2489],{"stretchy":101},[47,17440,17441],{"encoding":49},"M_x = \\langle U, V, F_x, P(U)\\rangle",[15,17443,17445,17500],{"className":17444,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,17446,17448,17451,17491,17494,17497],{"className":17447},[58],[15,17449],{"className":17450,"style":1863},[62],[15,17452,17454,17457],{"className":17453},[67],[15,17455,9452],{"className":17456,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,17458,17460],{"className":17459},[918],[15,17461,17463,17483],{"className":17462},[922,923],[15,17464,17466,17480],{"className":17465},[927],[15,17467,17469],{"className":17468,"style":932},[931],[15,17470,17471,17474],{"style":2581},[15,17472],{"className":17473,"style":940},[939],[15,17475,17477],{"className":17476},[944,945,946,947],[15,17478,539],{"className":17479},[67,68,947],[15,17481,955],{"className":17482},[954],[15,17484,17486],{"className":17485},[927],[15,17487,17489],{"className":17488,"style":962},[931],[15,17490],{},[15,17492],{"className":17493,"style":199},[77],[15,17495,602],{"className":17496},[203],[15,17498],{"className":17499,"style":199},[77],[15,17501,17503,17506,17509,17512,17515,17518,17521,17524,17527,17567,17570,17573,17576,17579,17582],{"className":17502},[58],[15,17504],{"className":17505,"style":124},[62],[15,17507,2441],{"className":17508},[132],[15,17510,2454],{"className":17511,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,17513,42],{"className":17514},[73],[15,17516],{"className":17517,"style":78},[77],[15,17519,1341],{"className":17520,"style":82},[67,68],[15,17522,42],{"className":17523},[73],[15,17525],{"className":17526,"style":78},[77],[15,17528,17530,17533],{"className":17529},[67],[15,17531,9467],{"className":17532,"style":128},[67,68],[15,17534,17536],{"className":17535},[918],[15,17537,17539,17559],{"className":17538},[922,923],[15,17540,17542,17556],{"className":17541},[927],[15,17543,17545],{"className":17544,"style":932},[931],[15,17546,17547,17550],{"style":12304},[15,17548],{"className":17549,"style":940},[939],[15,17551,17553],{"className":17552},[944,945,946,947],[15,17554,539],{"className":17555},[67,68,947],[15,17557,955],{"className":17558},[954],[15,17560,17562],{"className":17561},[927],[15,17563,17565],{"className":17564,"style":962},[931],[15,17566],{},[15,17568,42],{"className":17569},[73],[15,17571],{"className":17572,"style":78},[77],[15,17574,98],{"className":17575,"style":128},[67,68],[15,17577,102],{"className":17578},[132],[15,17580,2454],{"className":17581,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,17583,9552],{"className":17584},[148],"，其中\n",[15,17587,17589,17642],{"className":17588,"translate":19},[18],[15,17590,17592],{"className":17591},[23],[25,17593,17594],{"xmlns":27},[29,17595,17596,17639],{},[32,17597,17598,17604,17606,17608,17610,17612,17614,17620,17622,17624,17627,17629,17631,17633,17635,17637],{},[863,17599,17600,17602],{},[35,17601,9467],{},[35,17603,539],{},[39,17605,602],{},[39,17607,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,17609,9467],{},[39,17611,10235],{},[39,17613,1417],{"stretchy":101},[863,17615,17616,17618],{},[35,17617,5717],{},[35,17619,37],{},[39,17621,1442],{"stretchy":101},[39,17623,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,17625,17626],{},"∪",[39,17628,1417],{"stretchy":101},[35,17630,37],{},[39,17632,8850],{},[39,17634,602],{},[35,17636,539],{},[39,17638,1442],{"stretchy":101},[47,17640,17641],{"encoding":49},"F_x = (F \\setminus \\{f_X\\}) \\cup \\{X := x\\}",[15,17643,17645,17700,17721,17783,17804],{"className":17644,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,17646,17648,17651,17691,17694,17697],{"className":17647},[58],[15,17649],{"className":17650,"style":1863},[62],[15,17652,17654,17657],{"className":17653},[67],[15,17655,9467],{"className":17656,"style":128},[67,68],[15,17658,17660],{"className":17659},[918],[15,17661,17663,17683],{"className":17662},[922,923],[15,17664,17666,17680],{"className":17665},[927],[15,17667,17669],{"className":17668,"style":932},[931],[15,17670,17671,17674],{"style":12304},[15,17672],{"className":17673,"style":940},[939],[15,17675,17677],{"className":17676},[944,945,946,947],[15,17678,539],{"className":17679},[67,68,947],[15,17681,955],{"className":17682},[954],[15,17684,17686],{"className":17685},[927],[15,17687,17689],{"className":17688,"style":962},[931],[15,17690],{},[15,17692],{"className":17693,"style":199},[77],[15,17695,602],{"className":17696},[203],[15,17698],{"className":17699,"style":199},[77],[15,17701,17703,17706,17709,17712,17715,17718],{"className":17702},[58],[15,17704],{"className":17705,"style":124},[62],[15,17707,102],{"className":17708},[132],[15,17710,9467],{"className":17711,"style":128},[67,68],[15,17713],{"className":17714,"style":82},[77],[15,17716,10235],{"className":17717},[1646],[15,17719],{"className":17720,"style":82},[77],[15,17722,17724,17727,17730,17770,17774,17777,17780],{"className":17723},[58],[15,17725],{"className":17726,"style":124},[62],[15,17728,1417],{"className":17729},[132],[15,17731,17733,17736],{"className":17732},[67],[15,17734,5717],{"className":17735,"style":5765},[67,68],[15,17737,17739],{"className":17738},[918],[15,17740,17742,17762],{"className":17741},[922,923],[15,17743,17745,17759],{"className":17744},[927],[15,17746,17748],{"className":17747,"style":7346},[931],[15,17749,17750,17753],{"style":10006},[15,17751],{"className":17752,"style":940},[939],[15,17754,17756],{"className":17755},[944,945,946,947],[15,17757,37],{"className":17758,"style":69},[67,68,947],[15,17760,955],{"className":17761},[954],[15,17763,17765],{"className":17764},[927],[15,17766,17768],{"className":17767,"style":962},[931],[15,17769],{},[15,17771,17773],{"className":17772},[148],"})",[15,17775],{"className":17776,"style":82},[77],[15,17778,17626],{"className":17779},[1646],[15,17781],{"className":17782,"style":82},[77],[15,17784,17786,17789,17792,17795,17798,17801],{"className":17785},[58],[15,17787],{"className":17788,"style":124},[62],[15,17790,1417],{"className":17791},[132],[15,17793,37],{"className":17794,"style":69},[67,68],[15,17796],{"className":17797,"style":199},[77],[15,17799,8886],{"className":17800},[203],[15,17802],{"className":17803,"style":199},[77],[15,17805,17807,17810,17813],{"className":17806},[58],[15,17808],{"className":17809,"style":124},[62],[15,17811,539],{"className":17812},[67,68],[15,17814,1442],{"className":17815},[148],"\n即把 ",[15,17818,17820,17833],{"className":17819,"translate":19},[18],[15,17821,17823],{"className":17822},[23],[25,17824,17825],{"xmlns":27},[29,17826,17827,17831],{},[32,17828,17829],{},[35,17830,37],{},[47,17832,37],{"encoding":49},[15,17834,17836],{"className":17835,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,17837,17839,17842],{"className":17838},[58],[15,17840],{"className":17841,"style":299},[62],[15,17843,37],{"className":17844,"style":69},[67,68]," 原有的结构方程 ",[15,17847,17849,17889],{"className":17848,"translate":19},[18],[15,17850,17852],{"className":17851},[23],[25,17853,17854],{"xmlns":27},[29,17855,17856,17886],{},[32,17857,17858,17864,17866,17876,17878,17884],{},[863,17859,17860,17862],{},[35,17861,5717],{},[35,17863,37],{},[39,17865,102],{"stretchy":101},[863,17867,17868,17874],{},[32,17869,17870,17872],{},[35,17871,98],{"mathvariant":878},[35,17873,10201],{"mathvariant":878},[35,17875,37],{},[39,17877,42],{"separator":41},[863,17879,17880,17882],{},[35,17881,2454],{},[35,17883,37],{},[39,17885,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,17887,17888],{"encoding":49},"f_X(\\mathrm{Pa}_X, U_X)",[15,17890,17892],{"className":17891,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,17893,17895,17898,17938,17941,17984,17987,17990,18030],{"className":17894},[58],[15,17896],{"className":17897,"style":124},[62],[15,17899,17901,17904],{"className":17900},[67],[15,17902,5717],{"className":17903,"style":5765},[67,68],[15,17905,17907],{"className":17906},[918],[15,17908,17910,17930],{"className":17909},[922,923],[15,17911,17913,17927],{"className":17912},[927],[15,17914,17916],{"className":17915,"style":7346},[931],[15,17917,17918,17921],{"style":10006},[15,17919],{"className":17920,"style":940},[939],[15,17922,17924],{"className":17923},[944,945,946,947],[15,17925,37],{"className":17926,"style":69},[67,68,947],[15,17928,955],{"className":17929},[954],[15,17931,17933],{"className":17932},[927],[15,17934,17936],{"className":17935,"style":962},[931],[15,17937],{},[15,17939,102],{"className":17940},[132],[15,17942,17944,17950],{"className":17943},[67],[15,17945,17947],{"className":17946},[67],[15,17948,10366],{"className":17949},[67,10365],[15,17951,17953],{"className":17952},[918],[15,17954,17956,17976],{"className":17955},[922,923],[15,17957,17959,17973],{"className":17958},[927],[15,17960,17962],{"className":17961,"style":7346},[931],[15,17963,17964,17967],{"style":10381},[15,17965],{"className":17966,"style":940},[939],[15,17968,17970],{"className":17969},[944,945,946,947],[15,17971,37],{"className":17972,"style":69},[67,68,947],[15,17974,955],{"className":17975},[954],[15,17977,17979],{"className":17978},[927],[15,17980,17982],{"className":17981,"style":962},[931],[15,17983],{},[15,17985,42],{"className":17986},[73],[15,17988],{"className":17989,"style":78},[77],[15,17991,17993,17996],{"className":17992},[67],[15,17994,2454],{"className":17995,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,17997,17999],{"className":17998},[918],[15,18000,18002,18022],{"className":18001},[922,923],[15,18003,18005,18019],{"className":18004},[927],[15,18006,18008],{"className":18007,"style":7346},[931],[15,18009,18010,18013],{"style":2581},[15,18011],{"className":18012,"style":940},[939],[15,18014,18016],{"className":18015},[944,945,946,947],[15,18017,37],{"className":18018,"style":69},[67,68,947],[15,18020,955],{"className":18021},[954],[15,18023,18025],{"className":18024},[927],[15,18026,18028],{"className":18027,"style":962},[931],[15,18029],{},[15,18031,111],{"className":18032},[148]," 整体替换为常量赋值，其余所有方程保持不变。",[1314,18035,18037],{"title":18036},"定义 3.3（干预分布）",[11,18038,18039,18040,18068,18069,18139,18140,18210,18211],{},"变量 ",[15,18041,18043,18056],{"className":18042,"translate":19},[18],[15,18044,18046],{"className":18045},[23],[25,18047,18048],{"xmlns":27},[29,18049,18050,18054],{},[32,18051,18052],{},[35,18053,45],{},[47,18055,45],{"encoding":49},[15,18057,18059],{"className":18058,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,18060,18062,18065],{"className":18061},[58],[15,18063],{"className":18064,"style":299},[62],[15,18066,45],{"className":18067,"style":82},[67,68]," 在干预 ",[15,18070,18072,18097],{"className":18071,"translate":19},[18],[15,18073,18075],{"className":18074},[23],[25,18076,18077],{"xmlns":27},[29,18078,18079,18095],{},[32,18080,18081,18083,18085,18087,18089,18091,18093],{},[35,18082,696],{},[35,18084,699],{},[39,18086,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,18088,37],{},[39,18090,602],{},[35,18092,539],{},[39,18094,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,18096,8065],{"encoding":49},[15,18098,18100,18127],{"className":18099,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,18101,18103,18106,18109,18112,18115,18118,18121,18124],{"className":18102},[58],[15,18104],{"className":18105,"style":124},[62],[15,18107,696],{"className":18108},[67,68],[15,18110,699],{"className":18111},[67,68],[15,18113,102],{"className":18114},[132],[15,18116,37],{"className":18117,"style":69},[67,68],[15,18119],{"className":18120,"style":199},[77],[15,18122,602],{"className":18123},[203],[15,18125],{"className":18126,"style":199},[77],[15,18128,18130,18133,18136],{"className":18129},[58],[15,18131],{"className":18132,"style":124},[62],[15,18134,539],{"className":18135},[67,68],[15,18137,111],{"className":18138},[148]," 下的分布，定义为子模型 ",[15,18141,18143,18161],{"className":18142,"translate":19},[18],[15,18144,18146],{"className":18145},[23],[25,18147,18148],{"xmlns":27},[29,18149,18150,18158],{},[32,18151,18152],{},[863,18153,18154,18156],{},[35,18155,9452],{},[35,18157,539],{},[47,18159,18160],{"encoding":49},"M_x",[15,18162,18164],{"className":18163,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,18165,18167,18170],{"className":18166},[58],[15,18168],{"className":18169,"style":1863},[62],[15,18171,18173,18176],{"className":18172},[67],[15,18174,9452],{"className":18175,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,18177,18179],{"className":18178},[918],[15,18180,18182,18202],{"className":18181},[922,923],[15,18183,18185,18199],{"className":18184},[927],[15,18186,18188],{"className":18187,"style":932},[931],[15,18189,18190,18193],{"style":2581},[15,18191],{"className":18192,"style":940},[939],[15,18194,18196],{"className":18195},[944,945,946,947],[15,18197,539],{"className":18198},[67,68,947],[15,18200,955],{"className":18201},[954],[15,18203,18205],{"className":18204},[927],[15,18206,18208],{"className":18207,"style":962},[931],[15,18209],{}," 的诱导分布：\n",[15,18212,18214,18266],{"className":18213,"translate":19},[18],[15,18215,18217],{"className":18216},[23],[25,18218,18219],{"xmlns":27},[29,18220,18221,18263],{},[32,18222,18223,18225,18227,18229,18231,18233,18235,18237,18239,18241,18243,18245,18247,18257,18259,18261],{},[35,18224,98],{},[39,18226,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,18228,534],{},[39,18230,170],{},[35,18232,696],{},[35,18234,699],{},[39,18236,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,18238,539],{},[39,18240,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,18242,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,18244,8850],{},[39,18246,602],{},[863,18248,18249,18251],{},[35,18250,98],{},[863,18252,18253,18255],{},[35,18254,9452],{},[35,18256,539],{},[39,18258,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,18260,534],{},[39,18262,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,18264,18265],{"encoding":49},"P(y \\mid do(x)) := P_{M_x}(y)",[15,18267,18269,18293,18323],{"className":18268,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,18270,18272,18275,18278,18281,18284,18287,18290],{"className":18271},[58],[15,18273],{"className":18274,"style":124},[62],[15,18276,98],{"className":18277,"style":128},[67,68],[15,18279,102],{"className":18280},[132],[15,18282,534],{"className":18283,"style":563},[67,68],[15,18285],{"className":18286,"style":199},[77],[15,18288,170],{"className":18289},[203],[15,18291],{"className":18292,"style":199},[77],[15,18294,18296,18299,18302,18305,18308,18311,18314,18317,18320],{"className":18295},[58],[15,18297],{"className":18298,"style":124},[62],[15,18300,696],{"className":18301},[67,68],[15,18303,699],{"className":18304},[67,68],[15,18306,102],{"className":18307},[132],[15,18309,539],{"className":18310},[67,68],[15,18312,759],{"className":18313},[148],[15,18315],{"className":18316,"style":199},[77],[15,18318,8886],{"className":18319},[203],[15,18321],{"className":18322,"style":199},[77],[15,18324,18326,18330,18416,18419,18422],{"className":18325},[58],[15,18327],{"className":18328,"style":18329},[62],"height:1.0001em;vertical-align:-0.2501em;",[15,18331,18333,18336],{"className":18332},[67],[15,18334,98],{"className":18335,"style":128},[67,68],[15,18337,18339],{"className":18338},[918],[15,18340,18342,18407],{"className":18341},[922,923],[15,18343,18345,18404],{"className":18344},[927],[15,18346,18348],{"className":18347,"style":7346},[931],[15,18349,18350,18353],{"style":12304},[15,18351],{"className":18352,"style":940},[939],[15,18354,18356],{"className":18355},[944,945,946,947],[15,18357,18359],{"className":18358},[67,947],[15,18360,18362,18365],{"className":18361},[67,947],[15,18363,9452],{"className":18364,"style":2566},[67,68,947],[15,18366,18368],{"className":18367},[918],[15,18369,18371,18395],{"className":18370},[922,923],[15,18372,18374,18392],{"className":18373},[927],[15,18375,18378],{"className":18376,"style":18377},[931],"height:0.1645em;",[15,18379,18381,18385],{"style":18380},"top:-2.357em;margin-left:-0.109em;margin-right:0.0714em;",[15,18382],{"className":18383,"style":18384},[939],"height:2.5em;",[15,18386,18389],{"className":18387},[944,18388,15064,947],"reset-size3",[15,18390,539],{"className":18391},[67,68,947],[15,18393,955],{"className":18394},[954],[15,18396,18398],{"className":18397},[927],[15,18399,18402],{"className":18400,"style":18401},[931],"height:0.143em;",[15,18403],{},[15,18405,955],{"className":18406},[954],[15,18408,18410],{"className":18409},[927],[15,18411,18414],{"className":18412,"style":18413},[931],"height:0.2501em;",[15,18415],{},[15,18417,102],{"className":18418},[132],[15,18420,534],{"className":18421,"style":563},[67,68],[15,18423,111],{"className":18424},[148],[11,18426,18427,18430,18431,18501,18502,18530,18531,18559,18560,18588,18589,18707,18708,18736,18737,18765],{},[305,18428,18429],{},"在图上的对应操作","：干预 ",[15,18432,18434,18459],{"className":18433,"translate":19},[18],[15,18435,18437],{"className":18436},[23],[25,18438,18439],{"xmlns":27},[29,18440,18441,18457],{},[32,18442,18443,18445,18447,18449,18451,18453,18455],{},[35,18444,696],{},[35,18446,699],{},[39,18448,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,18450,37],{},[39,18452,602],{},[35,18454,539],{},[39,18456,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,18458,8065],{"encoding":49},[15,18460,18462,18489],{"className":18461,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,18463,18465,18468,18471,18474,18477,18480,18483,18486],{"className":18464},[58],[15,18466],{"className":18467,"style":124},[62],[15,18469,696],{"className":18470},[67,68],[15,18472,699],{"className":18473},[67,68],[15,18475,102],{"className":18476},[132],[15,18478,37],{"className":18479,"style":69},[67,68],[15,18481],{"className":18482,"style":199},[77],[15,18484,602],{"className":18485},[203],[15,18487],{"className":18488,"style":199},[77],[15,18490,18492,18495,18498],{"className":18491},[58],[15,18493],{"className":18494,"style":124},[62],[15,18496,539],{"className":18497},[67,68],[15,18499,111],{"className":18500},[148]," 对应从因果图 ",[15,18503,18505,18518],{"className":18504,"translate":19},[18],[15,18506,18508],{"className":18507},[23],[25,18509,18510],{"xmlns":27},[29,18511,18512,18516],{},[32,18513,18514],{},[35,18515,1334],{},[47,18517,1334],{"encoding":49},[15,18519,18521],{"className":18520,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,18522,18524,18527],{"className":18523},[58],[15,18525],{"className":18526,"style":299},[62],[15,18528,1334],{"className":18529},[67,68]," 中删去 ",[15,18532,18534,18547],{"className":18533,"translate":19},[18],[15,18535,18537],{"className":18536},[23],[25,18538,18539],{"xmlns":27},[29,18540,18541,18545],{},[32,18542,18543],{},[35,18544,37],{},[47,18546,37],{"encoding":49},[15,18548,18550],{"className":18549,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,18551,18553,18556],{"className":18552},[58],[15,18554],{"className":18555,"style":299},[62],[15,18557,37],{"className":18558,"style":69},[67,68]," 的所有入边（即切断 ",[15,18561,18563,18576],{"className":18562,"translate":19},[18],[15,18564,18566],{"className":18565},[23],[25,18567,18568],{"xmlns":27},[29,18569,18570,18574],{},[32,18571,18572],{},[35,18573,37],{},[47,18575,37],{"encoding":49},[15,18577,18579],{"className":18578,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,18580,18582,18585],{"className":18581},[58],[15,18583],{"className":18584,"style":299},[62],[15,18586,37],{"className":18587,"style":69},[67,68]," 与其父节点的连接），得到修改后的图 ",[15,18590,18592,18616],{"className":18591,"translate":19},[18],[15,18593,18595],{"className":18594},[23],[25,18596,18597],{"xmlns":27},[29,18598,18599,18613],{},[32,18600,18601],{},[863,18602,18603,18605],{},[35,18604,1334],{},[18606,18607,18608,18610],"mover",{"accent":41},[35,18609,37],{},[39,18611,18612],{"stretchy":41},"‾",[47,18614,18615],{"encoding":49},"G_{\\overline{X}}",[15,18617,18619],{"className":18618,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,18620,18622,18626],{"className":18621},[58],[15,18623],{"className":18624,"style":18625},[62],"height:0.9884em;vertical-align:-0.305em;",[15,18627,18629,18632],{"className":18628},[67],[15,18630,1334],{"className":18631},[67,68],[15,18633,18635],{"className":18634},[918],[15,18636,18638,18698],{"className":18637},[922,923],[15,18639,18641,18695],{"className":18640},[927],[15,18642,18645],{"className":18643,"style":18644},[931],"height:0.3448em;",[15,18646,18648,18652],{"style":18647},"top:-2.695em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;",[15,18649],{"className":18650,"style":18651},[939],"height:3em;",[15,18653,18655],{"className":18654},[944,945,946,947],[15,18656,18658],{"className":18657},[67,947],[15,18659,18662],{"className":18660},[67,18661,947],"overline",[15,18663,18665],{"className":18664},[922],[15,18666,18668],{"className":18667},[927],[15,18669,18672,18684],{"className":18670,"style":18671},[931],"height:0.9283em;",[15,18673,18675,18678],{"style":18674},"top:-3em;",[15,18676],{"className":18677,"style":18651},[939],[15,18679,18681],{"className":18680},[67,947],[15,18682,37],{"className":18683,"style":69},[67,68,947],[15,18685,18687,18690],{"style":18686},"top:-3.8303em;",[15,18688],{"className":18689,"style":18651},[939],[15,18691],{"className":18692,"style":18694},[18693,947],"overline-line","border-bottom-width:0.049em;",[15,18696,955],{"className":18697},[954],[15,18699,18701],{"className":18700},[927],[15,18702,18705],{"className":18703,"style":18704},[931],"height:0.305em;",[15,18706],{},"，同时保留 ",[15,18709,18711,18724],{"className":18710,"translate":19},[18],[15,18712,18714],{"className":18713},[23],[25,18715,18716],{"xmlns":27},[29,18717,18718,18722],{},[32,18719,18720],{},[35,18721,37],{},[47,18723,37],{"encoding":49},[15,18725,18727],{"className":18726,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,18728,18730,18733],{"className":18729},[58],[15,18731],{"className":18732,"style":299},[62],[15,18734,37],{"className":18735,"style":69},[67,68]," 的所有出边不变。这一操作直观地表达了「外部干预使得 ",[15,18738,18740,18753],{"className":18739,"translate":19},[18],[15,18741,18743],{"className":18742},[23],[25,18744,18745],{"xmlns":27},[29,18746,18747,18751],{},[32,18748,18749],{},[35,18750,37],{},[47,18752,37],{"encoding":49},[15,18754,18756],{"className":18755,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,18757,18759,18762],{"className":18758},[58],[15,18760],{"className":18761,"style":299},[62],[15,18763,37],{"className":18764,"style":69},[67,68]," 不再由其自然原因决定，而是由外部力量强制设定」这一语义。",[1314,18767,18769],{"title":18768},"定理 3.1（截断因子分解公式，Truncated Factorization）",[11,18770,18771,18772,19475,19476,19508],{},"对马尔可夫型 SCM，\n",[15,18773,18775,18921],{"className":18774,"translate":19},[18],[15,18776,18778],{"className":18777},[23],[25,18779,18780],{"xmlns":27},[29,18781,18782,18918],{},[32,18783,18784,18786,18788,18794,18796,18798,18800,18806,18808,18810,18812,18814,18816,18818,18820,18822],{},[35,18785,98],{},[39,18787,102],{"stretchy":101},[863,18789,18790,18792],{},[35,18791,12513],{},[1423,18793,1425],{},[39,18795,42],{"separator":41},[39,18797,1430],{},[39,18799,42],{"separator":41},[863,18801,18802,18804],{},[35,18803,12513],{},[35,18805,1439],{},[39,18807,170],{},[35,18809,696],{},[35,18811,699],{},[39,18813,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,18815,539],{},[39,18817,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,18819,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,18821,602],{},[32,18823,18824,18826],{},[39,18825,1417],{"fence":41},[13680,18827,18831,18903],{"rowspacing":18828,"columnalign":18829,"columnspacing":18830},"0.36em","left left","1em",[13686,18832,18833,18880],{},[13689,18834,18835],{},[11816,18836,18837],{"scriptlevel":2457,"displaystyle":101},[32,18838,18839,18856,18858,18860,18866,18868,18878],{},[863,18840,18841,18843],{},[39,18842,12537],{},[32,18844,18845,18851,18854],{},[863,18846,18847,18849],{},[35,18848,1341],{},[35,18850,1680],{},[39,18852,18853],{"mathvariant":878},"≠",[35,18855,37],{},[35,18857,98],{},[39,18859,102],{"stretchy":101},[863,18861,18862,18864],{},[35,18863,12513],{},[35,18865,1680],{},[39,18867,170],{},[863,18869,18870,18876],{},[32,18871,18872,18874],{},[35,18873,11],{"mathvariant":878},[35,18875,10201],{"mathvariant":878},[35,18877,1680],{},[39,18879,111],{"stretchy":101},[13689,18881,18882],{},[11816,18883,18884],{"scriptlevel":2457,"displaystyle":101},[32,18885,18886,18889,18891,18894,18896,18898,18900],{},[238,18887,18888],{},"若 ",[35,18890,12513],{},[238,18892,18893],{}," 的取值与 ",[35,18895,37],{},[39,18897,602],{},[35,18899,539],{},[238,18901,18902],{}," 相容",[13686,18904,18905,18911],{},[13689,18906,18907],{},[11816,18908,18909],{"scriptlevel":2457,"displaystyle":101},[1423,18910,2457],{},[13689,18912,18913],{},[11816,18914,18915],{"scriptlevel":2457,"displaystyle":101},[238,18916,18917],{},"否则",[47,18919,18920],{"encoding":49},"P(v_1,\\dots,v_n \\mid do(x)) = \\begin{cases} \\prod_{V_i \\neq X} P(v_i \\mid \\mathrm{pa}_i) & \\text{若 } v \\text{ 的取值与 } X=x \\text{ 相容} \\\\ 0 & \\text{否则}\\end{cases}",[15,18922,18924,19043,19073],{"className":18923,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,18925,18927,18930,18933,18936,18976,18979,18982,18985,18988,18991,18994,19034,19037,19040],{"className":18926},[58],[15,18928],{"className":18929,"style":124},[62],[15,18931,98],{"className":18932,"style":128},[67,68],[15,18934,102],{"className":18935},[132],[15,18937,18939,18942],{"className":18938},[67],[15,18940,12513],{"className":18941,"style":563},[67,68],[15,18943,18945],{"className":18944},[918],[15,18946,18948,18968],{"className":18947},[922,923],[15,18949,18951,18965],{"className":18950},[927],[15,18952,18954],{"className":18953,"style":1494},[931],[15,18955,18956,18959],{"style":935},[15,18957],{"className":18958,"style":940},[939],[15,18960,18962],{"className":18961},[944,945,946,947],[15,18963,1425],{"className":18964},[67,947],[15,18966,955],{"className":18967},[954],[15,18969,18971],{"className":18970},[927],[15,18972,18974],{"className":18973,"style":962},[931],[15,18975],{},[15,18977,42],{"className":18978},[73],[15,18980],{"className":18981,"style":78},[77],[15,18983,1430],{"className":18984},[1527],[15,18986],{"className":18987,"style":78},[77],[15,18989,42],{"className":18990},[73],[15,18992],{"className":18993,"style":78},[77],[15,18995,18997,19000],{"className":18996},[67],[15,18998,12513],{"className":18999,"style":563},[67,68],[15,19001,19003],{"className":19002},[918],[15,19004,19006,19026],{"className":19005},[922,923],[15,19007,19009,19023],{"className":19008},[927],[15,19010,19012],{"className":19011,"style":932},[931],[15,19013,19014,19017],{"style":935},[15,19015],{"className":19016,"style":940},[939],[15,19018,19020],{"className":19019},[944,945,946,947],[15,19021,1439],{"className":19022},[67,68,947],[15,19024,955],{"className":19025},[954],[15,19027,19029],{"className":19028},[927],[15,19030,19032],{"className":19031,"style":962},[931],[15,19033],{},[15,19035],{"className":19036,"style":199},[77],[15,19038,170],{"className":19039},[203],[15,19041],{"className":19042,"style":199},[77],[15,19044,19046,19049,19052,19055,19058,19061,19064,19067,19070],{"className":19045},[58],[15,19047],{"className":19048,"style":124},[62],[15,19050,696],{"className":19051},[67,68],[15,19053,699],{"className":19054},[67,68],[15,19056,102],{"className":19057},[132],[15,19059,539],{"className":19060},[67,68],[15,19062,759],{"className":19063},[148],[15,19065],{"className":19066,"style":199},[77],[15,19068,602],{"className":19069},[203],[15,19071],{"className":19072,"style":199},[77],[15,19074,19076,19080],{"className":19075},[58],[15,19077],{"className":19078,"style":19079},[62],"height:3em;vertical-align:-1.25em;",[15,19081,19083,19092,19471],{"className":19082},[1527],[15,19084,19088],{"className":19085,"style":19087},[132,19086],"delimcenter","top:0em;",[15,19089,1417],{"className":19090},[15063,19091],"size4",[15,19093,19095],{"className":19094},[67],[15,19096,19098,19372,19375],{"className":19097},[13680],[15,19099,19101],{"className":19100},[14429],[15,19102,19104,19363],{"className":19103},[922,923],[15,19105,19107,19360],{"className":19106},[927],[15,19108,19111,19348],{"className":19109,"style":19110},[931],"height:1.6919em;",[15,19112,19114,19118],{"style":19113},"top:-3.6919em;",[15,19115],{"className":19116,"style":19117},[939],"height:3.008em;",[15,19119,19121,19244,19247,19250,19253,19293,19296,19299,19302,19345],{"className":19120},[67],[15,19122,19124,19127],{"className":19123},[12747],[15,19125,12537],{"className":19126,"style":12753},[12747,12751,12752],[15,19128,19130],{"className":19129},[918],[15,19131,19133,19235],{"className":19132},[922,923],[15,19134,19136,19232],{"className":19135},[927],[15,19137,19140],{"className":19138,"style":19139},[931],"height:0.1864em;",[15,19141,19142,19145],{"style":12769},[15,19143],{"className":19144,"style":940},[939],[15,19146,19148],{"className":19147},[944,945,946,947],[15,19149,19151,19193,19229],{"className":19150},[67,947],[15,19152,19154,19157],{"className":19153},[67,947],[15,19155,1341],{"className":19156,"style":82},[67,68,947],[15,19158,19160],{"className":19159},[918],[15,19161,19163,19185],{"className":19162},[922,923],[15,19164,19166,19182],{"className":19165},[927],[15,19167,19170],{"className":19168,"style":19169},[931],"height:0.3281em;",[15,19171,19173,19176],{"style":19172},"top:-2.357em;margin-left:-0.2222em;margin-right:0.0714em;",[15,19174],{"className":19175,"style":18384},[939],[15,19177,19179],{"className":19178},[944,18388,15064,947],[15,19180,1680],{"className":19181},[67,68,947],[15,19183,955],{"className":19184},[954],[15,19186,19188],{"className":19187},[927],[15,19189,19191],{"className":19190,"style":18401},[931],[15,19192],{},[15,19194,19196,19223,19226],{"className":19195},[203,947],[15,19197,19199],{"className":19198},[203,947],[15,19200,19202],{"className":19201},[67,4459,947],[15,19203,19205],{"className":19204},[4463,947],[15,19206,19208,19211,19220],{"className":19207},[4467,947],[15,19209],{"className":19210,"style":4446},[62],[15,19212,19214],{"className":19213},[4474],[15,19215,19217],{"className":19216},[67,947],[15,19218,4481],{"className":19219},[203,947],[15,19221],{"className":19222},[4485],[15,19224],{"className":19225},[77,4489,947],[15,19227,602],{"className":19228},[203,947],[15,19230,37],{"className":19231,"style":69},[67,68,947],[15,19233,955],{"className":19234},[954],[15,19236,19238],{"className":19237},[927],[15,19239,19242],{"className":19240,"style":19241},[931],"height:0.4358em;",[15,19243],{},[15,19245],{"className":19246,"style":78},[77],[15,19248,98],{"className":19249,"style":128},[67,68],[15,19251,102],{"className":19252},[132],[15,19254,19256,19259],{"className":19255},[67],[15,19257,12513],{"className":19258,"style":563},[67,68],[15,19260,19262],{"className":19261},[918],[15,19263,19265,19285],{"className":19264},[922,923],[15,19266,19268,19282],{"className":19267},[927],[15,19269,19271],{"className":19270,"style":1731},[931],[15,19272,19273,19276],{"style":935},[15,19274],{"className":19275,"style":940},[939],[15,19277,19279],{"className":19278},[944,945,946,947],[15,19280,1680],{"className":19281},[67,68,947],[15,19283,955],{"className":19284},[954],[15,19286,19288],{"className":19287},[927],[15,19289,19291],{"className":19290,"style":962},[931],[15,19292],{},[15,19294],{"className":19295,"style":199},[77],[15,19297,170],{"className":19298},[203],[15,19300],{"className":19301,"style":199},[77],[15,19303,19305,19311],{"className":19304},[67],[15,19306,19308],{"className":19307},[67],[15,19309,12885],{"className":19310},[67,10365],[15,19312,19314],{"className":19313},[918],[15,19315,19317,19337],{"className":19316},[922,923],[15,19318,19320,19334],{"className":19319},[927],[15,19321,19323],{"className":19322,"style":12898},[931],[15,19324,19325,19328],{"style":12901},[15,19326],{"className":19327,"style":940},[939],[15,19329,19331],{"className":19330},[944,945,946,947],[15,19332,1680],{"className":19333},[67,68,947],[15,19335,955],{"className":19336},[954],[15,19338,19340],{"className":19339},[927],[15,19341,19343],{"className":19342,"style":12920},[931],[15,19344],{},[15,19346,111],{"className":19347},[148],[15,19349,19351,19354],{"style":19350},"top:-2.2481em;",[15,19352],{"className":19353,"style":19117},[939],[15,19355,19357],{"className":19356},[67],[15,19358,2457],{"className":19359},[67],[15,19361,955],{"className":19362},[954],[15,19364,19366],{"className":19365},[927],[15,19367,19370],{"className":19368,"style":19369},[931],"height:1.1919em;",[15,19371],{},[15,19373],{"className":19374,"style":15192},[15191],[15,19376,19378],{"className":19377},[14429],[15,19379,19381,19463],{"className":19380},[922,923],[15,19382,19384,19460],{"className":19383},[927],[15,19385,19387,19446],{"className":19386,"style":19110},[931],[15,19388,19389,19392],{"style":19113},[15,19390],{"className":19391,"style":19117},[939],[15,19393,19395,19405,19408,19421,19424,19427,19430,19433,19436],{"className":19394},[67],[15,19396,19398,19402],{"className":19397},[67,6301],[15,19399,19401],{"className":19400},[67,7745],"若",[15,19403,3916],{"className":19404},[67],[15,19406,12513],{"className":19407,"style":563},[67,68],[15,19409,19411,19414,19418],{"className":19410},[67,6301],[15,19412,3916],{"className":19413},[67],[15,19415,19417],{"className":19416},[67,7745],"的取值与",[15,19419,3916],{"className":19420},[67],[15,19422,37],{"className":19423,"style":69},[67,68],[15,19425],{"className":19426,"style":199},[77],[15,19428,602],{"className":19429},[203],[15,19431],{"className":19432,"style":199},[77],[15,19434,539],{"className":19435},[67,68],[15,19437,19439,19442],{"className":19438},[67,6301],[15,19440,3916],{"className":19441},[67],[15,19443,19445],{"className":19444},[67,7745],"相容",[15,19447,19448,19451],{"style":19350},[15,19449],{"className":19450,"style":19117},[939],[15,19452,19454],{"className":19453},[67],[15,19455,19457],{"className":19456},[67,6301],[15,19458,18917],{"className":19459},[67,7745],[15,19461,955],{"className":19462},[954],[15,19464,19466],{"className":19465},[927],[15,19467,19469],{"className":19468,"style":19369},[931],[15,19470],{},[15,19472],{"className":19473},[148,19474],"nulldelimiter","\n即干预分布等于观测分布的马尔可夫分解式中",[305,19477,19478,19479,19507],{},"删去 ",[15,19480,19482,19495],{"className":19481,"translate":19},[18],[15,19483,19485],{"className":19484},[23],[25,19486,19487],{"xmlns":27},[29,19488,19489,19493],{},[32,19490,19491],{},[35,19492,37],{},[47,19494,37],{"encoding":49},[15,19496,19498],{"className":19497,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,19499,19501,19504],{"className":19500},[58],[15,19502],{"className":19503,"style":299},[62],[15,19505,37],{"className":19506,"style":69},[67,68]," 对应因子后","的乘积。这一公式是连接观测数据（第一层）与干预效果（第二层）的桥梁，也是后续「后门准则」「前门准则」等可识别性理论的直接推论。",[1314,19510,19512,19572,20670],{"title":19511},"例 3.2（观察与干预的数值区分）",[11,19513,19514,19515,19571],{},"沿用洒水器例子。设已知 ",[15,19516,19518,19538],{"className":19517,"translate":19},[18],[15,19519,19521],{"className":19520},[23],[25,19522,19523],{"xmlns":27},[29,19524,19525,19535],{},[32,19526,19527,19529,19531,19533],{},[35,19528,3769],{},[35,19530,11],{},[39,19532,602],{},[1423,19534,1425],{},[47,19536,19537],{"encoding":49},"Sp=1",[15,19539,19541,19562],{"className":19540,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,19542,19544,19547,19550,19553,19556,19559],{"className":19543},[58],[15,19545],{"className":19546,"style":63},[62],[15,19548,3769],{"className":19549,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,19551,11],{"className":19552},[67,68],[15,19554],{"className":19555,"style":199},[77],[15,19557,602],{"className":19558},[203],[15,19560],{"className":19561,"style":199},[77],[15,19563,19565,19568],{"className":19564},[58],[15,19566],{"className":19567,"style":3145},[62],[15,19569,1425],{"className":19570},[67],"（洒水器开着）。",[507,19573,19574,19967],{},[510,19575,19576,4327,19579,12932,19694,19750,19751,19779,19780,19835,19836,19887,19888,19966],{},[305,19577,19578],{},"观察情形",[15,19580,19582,19616],{"className":19581,"translate":19},[18],[15,19583,19585],{"className":19584},[23],[25,19586,19587],{"xmlns":27},[29,19588,19589,19613],{},[32,19590,19591,19593,19595,19597,19599,19601,19603,19605,19607,19609,19611],{},[35,19592,98],{},[39,19594,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,19596,3774],{},[39,19598,602],{},[1423,19600,1425],{},[39,19602,170],{},[35,19604,3769],{},[35,19606,11],{},[39,19608,602],{},[1423,19610,1425],{},[39,19612,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,19614,19615],{"encoding":49},"P(R=1 \\mid Sp=1)",[15,19617,19619,19643,19661,19682],{"className":19618,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,19620,19622,19625,19628,19631,19634,19637,19640],{"className":19621},[58],[15,19623],{"className":19624,"style":124},[62],[15,19626,98],{"className":19627,"style":128},[67,68],[15,19629,102],{"className":19630},[132],[15,19632,3774],{"className":19633,"style":3833},[67,68],[15,19635],{"className":19636,"style":199},[77],[15,19638,602],{"className":19639},[203],[15,19641],{"className":19642,"style":199},[77],[15,19644,19646,19649,19652,19655,19658],{"className":19645},[58],[15,19647],{"className":19648,"style":124},[62],[15,19650,1425],{"className":19651},[67],[15,19653],{"className":19654,"style":199},[77],[15,19656,170],{"className":19657},[203],[15,19659],{"className":19660,"style":199},[77],[15,19662,19664,19667,19670,19673,19676,19679],{"className":19663},[58],[15,19665],{"className":19666,"style":63},[62],[15,19668,3769],{"className":19669,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,19671,11],{"className":19672},[67,68],[15,19674],{"className":19675,"style":199},[77],[15,19677,602],{"className":19678},[203],[15,19680],{"className":19681,"style":199},[77],[15,19683,19685,19688,19691],{"className":19684},[58],[15,19686],{"className":19687,"style":124},[62],[15,19689,1425],{"className":19690},[67],[15,19692,111],{"className":19693},[148],[15,19695,19697,19717],{"className":19696,"translate":19},[18],[15,19698,19700],{"className":19699},[23],[25,19701,19702],{"xmlns":27},[29,19703,19704,19714],{},[32,19705,19706,19708,19710,19712],{},[35,19707,3769],{},[39,19709,1844],{},[35,19711,3769],{},[35,19713,11],{},[47,19715,19716],{"encoding":49},"S \\to Sp",[15,19718,19720,19738],{"className":19719,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,19721,19723,19726,19729,19732,19735],{"className":19722},[58],[15,19724],{"className":19725,"style":299},[62],[15,19727,3769],{"className":19728,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,19730],{"className":19731,"style":199},[77],[15,19733,1844],{"className":19734},[203],[15,19736],{"className":19737,"style":199},[77],[15,19739,19741,19744,19747],{"className":19740},[58],[15,19742],{"className":19743,"style":63},[62],[15,19745,3769],{"className":19746,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,19748,11],{"className":19749},[67,68],"，观察到洒水器开启会更新我们对季节 ",[15,19752,19754,19767],{"className":19753,"translate":19},[18],[15,19755,19757],{"className":19756},[23],[25,19758,19759],{"xmlns":27},[29,19760,19761,19765],{},[32,19762,19763],{},[35,19764,3769],{},[47,19766,3769],{"encoding":49},[15,19768,19770],{"className":19769,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,19771,19773,19776],{"className":19772},[58],[15,19774],{"className":19775,"style":299},[62],[15,19777,3769],{"className":19778,"style":1394},[67,68]," 的信念（贝叶斯反推），例如若干燥季节更常开洒水器，则观察到 ",[15,19781,19783,19802],{"className":19782,"translate":19},[18],[15,19784,19786],{"className":19785},[23],[25,19787,19788],{"xmlns":27},[29,19789,19790,19800],{},[32,19791,19792,19794,19796,19798],{},[35,19793,3769],{},[35,19795,11],{},[39,19797,602],{},[1423,19799,1425],{},[47,19801,19537],{"encoding":49},[15,19803,19805,19826],{"className":19804,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,19806,19808,19811,19814,19817,19820,19823],{"className":19807},[58],[15,19809],{"className":19810,"style":63},[62],[15,19812,3769],{"className":19813,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,19815,11],{"className":19816},[67,68],[15,19818],{"className":19819,"style":199},[77],[15,19821,602],{"className":19822},[203],[15,19824],{"className":19825,"style":199},[77],[15,19827,19829,19832],{"className":19828},[58],[15,19830],{"className":19831,"style":3145},[62],[15,19833,1425],{"className":19834},[67]," 会提高「当前是干燥季节」的后验概率，进而压低 ",[15,19837,19839,19857],{"className":19838,"translate":19},[18],[15,19840,19842],{"className":19841},[23],[25,19843,19844],{"xmlns":27},[29,19845,19846,19854],{},[32,19847,19848,19850,19852],{},[35,19849,3774],{},[39,19851,602],{},[1423,19853,1425],{},[47,19855,19856],{"encoding":49},"R=1",[15,19858,19860,19878],{"className":19859,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,19861,19863,19866,19869,19872,19875],{"className":19862},[58],[15,19864],{"className":19865,"style":299},[62],[15,19867,3774],{"className":19868,"style":3833},[67,68],[15,19870],{"className":19871,"style":199},[77],[15,19873,602],{"className":19874},[203],[15,19876],{"className":19877,"style":199},[77],[15,19879,19881,19884],{"className":19880},[58],[15,19882],{"className":19883,"style":3145},[62],[15,19885,1425],{"className":19886},[67]," 的概率。此计算通过叉结构 ",[15,19889,19891,19915],{"className":19890,"translate":19},[18],[15,19892,19894],{"className":19893},[23],[25,19895,19896],{"xmlns":27},[29,19897,19898,19912],{},[32,19899,19900,19902,19904,19906,19908,19910],{},[35,19901,3774],{},[39,19903,4876],{},[35,19905,3769],{},[39,19907,1844],{},[35,19909,3769],{},[35,19911,11],{},[47,19913,19914],{"encoding":49},"R \\leftarrow S \\to Sp",[15,19916,19918,19936,19954],{"className":19917,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,19919,19921,19924,19927,19930,19933],{"className":19920},[58],[15,19922],{"className":19923,"style":299},[62],[15,19925,3774],{"className":19926,"style":3833},[67,68],[15,19928],{"className":19929,"style":199},[77],[15,19931,4876],{"className":19932},[203],[15,19934],{"className":19935,"style":199},[77],[15,19937,19939,19942,19945,19948,19951],{"className":19938},[58],[15,19940],{"className":19941,"style":299},[62],[15,19943,3769],{"className":19944,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,19946],{"className":19947,"style":199},[77],[15,19949,1844],{"className":19950},[203],[15,19952],{"className":19953,"style":199},[77],[15,19955,19957,19960,19963],{"className":19956},[58],[15,19958],{"className":19959,"style":63},[62],[15,19961,3769],{"className":19962,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,19964,11],{"className":19965},[67,68]," 这条未被阻断的路径进行。",[510,19968,19969,4327,19972,20104,20105,20160,20161,20189,20190,20267,20268,20323,20324,20669],{},[305,19970,19971],{},"干预情形",[15,19973,19975,20017],{"className":19974,"translate":19},[18],[15,19976,19978],{"className":19977},[23],[25,19979,19980],{"xmlns":27},[29,19981,19982,20014],{},[32,19983,19984,19986,19988,19990,19992,19994,19996,19998,20000,20002,20004,20006,20008,20010,20012],{},[35,19985,98],{},[39,19987,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,19989,3774],{},[39,19991,602],{},[1423,19993,1425],{},[39,19995,170],{},[35,19997,696],{},[35,19999,699],{},[39,20001,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,20003,3769],{},[35,20005,11],{},[39,20007,602],{},[1423,20009,1425],{},[39,20011,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,20013,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,20015,20016],{"encoding":49},"P(R=1 \\mid do(Sp=1))",[15,20018,20020,20044,20062,20092],{"className":20019,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,20021,20023,20026,20029,20032,20035,20038,20041],{"className":20022},[58],[15,20024],{"className":20025,"style":124},[62],[15,20027,98],{"className":20028,"style":128},[67,68],[15,20030,102],{"className":20031},[132],[15,20033,3774],{"className":20034,"style":3833},[67,68],[15,20036],{"className":20037,"style":199},[77],[15,20039,602],{"className":20040},[203],[15,20042],{"className":20043,"style":199},[77],[15,20045,20047,20050,20053,20056,20059],{"className":20046},[58],[15,20048],{"className":20049,"style":124},[62],[15,20051,1425],{"className":20052},[67],[15,20054],{"className":20055,"style":199},[77],[15,20057,170],{"className":20058},[203],[15,20060],{"className":20061,"style":199},[77],[15,20063,20065,20068,20071,20074,20077,20080,20083,20086,20089],{"className":20064},[58],[15,20066],{"className":20067,"style":124},[62],[15,20069,696],{"className":20070},[67,68],[15,20072,699],{"className":20073},[67,68],[15,20075,102],{"className":20076},[132],[15,20078,3769],{"className":20079,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,20081,11],{"className":20082},[67,68],[15,20084],{"className":20085,"style":199},[77],[15,20087,602],{"className":20088},[203],[15,20090],{"className":20091,"style":199},[77],[15,20093,20095,20098,20101],{"className":20094},[58],[15,20096],{"className":20097,"style":124},[62],[15,20099,1425],{"className":20100},[67],[15,20102,759],{"className":20103},[148],"：依据定义 3.2，干预会切断 ",[15,20106,20108,20127],{"className":20107,"translate":19},[18],[15,20109,20111],{"className":20110},[23],[25,20112,20113],{"xmlns":27},[29,20114,20115,20125],{},[32,20116,20117,20119,20121,20123],{},[35,20118,3769],{},[39,20120,1844],{},[35,20122,3769],{},[35,20124,11],{},[47,20126,19716],{"encoding":49},[15,20128,20130,20148],{"className":20129,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,20131,20133,20136,20139,20142,20145],{"className":20132},[58],[15,20134],{"className":20135,"style":299},[62],[15,20137,3769],{"className":20138,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,20140],{"className":20141,"style":199},[77],[15,20143,1844],{"className":20144},[203],[15,20146],{"className":20147,"style":199},[77],[15,20149,20151,20154,20157],{"className":20150},[58],[15,20152],{"className":20153,"style":63},[62],[15,20155,3769],{"className":20156,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,20158,11],{"className":20159},[67,68]," 这条边，于是 ",[15,20162,20164,20177],{"className":20163,"translate":19},[18],[15,20165,20167],{"className":20166},[23],[25,20168,20169],{"xmlns":27},[29,20170,20171,20175],{},[32,20172,20173],{},[35,20174,3769],{},[47,20176,3769],{"encoding":49},[15,20178,20180],{"className":20179,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,20181,20183,20186],{"className":20182},[58],[15,20184],{"className":20185,"style":299},[62],[15,20187,3769],{"className":20188,"style":1394},[67,68]," 的分布完全不受「我们把洒水器打开」这一操作的影响；而 ",[15,20191,20193,20216],{"className":20192,"translate":19},[18],[15,20194,20196],{"className":20195},[23],[25,20197,20198],{"xmlns":27},[29,20199,20200,20214],{},[32,20201,20202,20204,20206,20208,20210,20212],{},[35,20203,3774],{},[39,20205,4876],{},[35,20207,3769],{},[39,20209,1844],{},[35,20211,3769],{},[35,20213,11],{},[47,20215,19914],{"encoding":49},[15,20217,20219,20237,20255],{"className":20218,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,20220,20222,20225,20228,20231,20234],{"className":20221},[58],[15,20223],{"className":20224,"style":299},[62],[15,20226,3774],{"className":20227,"style":3833},[67,68],[15,20229],{"className":20230,"style":199},[77],[15,20232,4876],{"className":20233},[203],[15,20235],{"className":20236,"style":199},[77],[15,20238,20240,20243,20246,20249,20252],{"className":20239},[58],[15,20241],{"className":20242,"style":299},[62],[15,20244,3769],{"className":20245,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,20247],{"className":20248,"style":199},[77],[15,20250,1844],{"className":20251},[203],[15,20253],{"className":20254,"style":199},[77],[15,20256,20258,20261,20264],{"className":20257},[58],[15,20259],{"className":20260,"style":63},[62],[15,20262,3769],{"className":20263,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,20265,11],{"className":20266},[67,68]," 这条路径由于 ",[15,20269,20271,20290],{"className":20270,"translate":19},[18],[15,20272,20274],{"className":20273},[23],[25,20275,20276],{"xmlns":27},[29,20277,20278,20288],{},[32,20279,20280,20282,20284,20286],{},[35,20281,3769],{},[39,20283,1844],{},[35,20285,3769],{},[35,20287,11],{},[47,20289,19716],{"encoding":49},[15,20291,20293,20311],{"className":20292,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,20294,20296,20299,20302,20305,20308],{"className":20295},[58],[15,20297],{"className":20298,"style":299},[62],[15,20300,3769],{"className":20301,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,20303],{"className":20304,"style":199},[77],[15,20306,1844],{"className":20307},[203],[15,20309],{"className":20310,"style":199},[77],[15,20312,20314,20317,20320],{"className":20313},[58],[15,20315],{"className":20316,"style":63},[62],[15,20318,3769],{"className":20319,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,20321,11],{"className":20322},[67,68]," 边已被切断，不再传递任何信息。因此\n",[15,20325,20327,20417],{"className":20326,"translate":19},[18],[15,20328,20330],{"className":20329},[23],[25,20331,20332],{"xmlns":27},[29,20333,20334,20414],{},[32,20335,20336,20338,20340,20342,20344,20346,20348,20350,20352,20354,20356,20358,20360,20362,20364,20366,20368,20370,20372,20374,20376,20378,20380,20382,20390,20392,20394,20396,20398,20400,20402,20404,20406,20408,20410,20412],{},[35,20337,98],{},[39,20339,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,20341,3774],{},[39,20343,602],{},[1423,20345,1425],{},[39,20347,170],{},[35,20349,696],{},[35,20351,699],{},[39,20353,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,20355,3769],{},[35,20357,11],{},[39,20359,602],{},[1423,20361,1425],{},[39,20363,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,20365,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,20367,602],{},[35,20369,98],{},[39,20371,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,20373,3774],{},[39,20375,602],{},[1423,20377,1425],{},[39,20379,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,20381,602],{},[863,20383,20384,20387],{},[39,20385,20386],{},"∑",[35,20388,20389],{},"s",[35,20391,98],{},[39,20393,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,20395,3774],{},[39,20397,602],{},[1423,20399,1425],{},[39,20401,170],{},[35,20403,20389],{},[39,20405,111],{"stretchy":101},[35,20407,98],{},[39,20409,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,20411,20389],{},[39,20413,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,20415,20416],{"encoding":49},"P(R=1 \\mid do(Sp=1)) = P(R=1) = \\sum_s P(R=1\\mid s)P(s)",[15,20418,20420,20444,20462,20492,20513,20537,20558,20627,20645],{"className":20419,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,20421,20423,20426,20429,20432,20435,20438,20441],{"className":20422},[58],[15,20424],{"className":20425,"style":124},[62],[15,20427,98],{"className":20428,"style":128},[67,68],[15,20430,102],{"className":20431},[132],[15,20433,3774],{"className":20434,"style":3833},[67,68],[15,20436],{"className":20437,"style":199},[77],[15,20439,602],{"className":20440},[203],[15,20442],{"className":20443,"style":199},[77],[15,20445,20447,20450,20453,20456,20459],{"className":20446},[58],[15,20448],{"className":20449,"style":124},[62],[15,20451,1425],{"className":20452},[67],[15,20454],{"className":20455,"style":199},[77],[15,20457,170],{"className":20458},[203],[15,20460],{"className":20461,"style":199},[77],[15,20463,20465,20468,20471,20474,20477,20480,20483,20486,20489],{"className":20464},[58],[15,20466],{"className":20467,"style":124},[62],[15,20469,696],{"className":20470},[67,68],[15,20472,699],{"className":20473},[67,68],[15,20475,102],{"className":20476},[132],[15,20478,3769],{"className":20479,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,20481,11],{"className":20482},[67,68],[15,20484],{"className":20485,"style":199},[77],[15,20487,602],{"className":20488},[203],[15,20490],{"className":20491,"style":199},[77],[15,20493,20495,20498,20501,20504,20507,20510],{"className":20494},[58],[15,20496],{"className":20497,"style":124},[62],[15,20499,1425],{"className":20500},[67],[15,20502,759],{"className":20503},[148],[15,20505],{"className":20506,"style":199},[77],[15,20508,602],{"className":20509},[203],[15,20511],{"className":20512,"style":199},[77],[15,20514,20516,20519,20522,20525,20528,20531,20534],{"className":20515},[58],[15,20517],{"className":20518,"style":124},[62],[15,20520,98],{"className":20521,"style":128},[67,68],[15,20523,102],{"className":20524},[132],[15,20526,3774],{"className":20527,"style":3833},[67,68],[15,20529],{"className":20530,"style":199},[77],[15,20532,602],{"className":20533},[203],[15,20535],{"className":20536,"style":199},[77],[15,20538,20540,20543,20546,20549,20552,20555],{"className":20539},[58],[15,20541],{"className":20542,"style":124},[62],[15,20544,1425],{"className":20545},[67],[15,20547,111],{"className":20548},[148],[15,20550],{"className":20551,"style":199},[77],[15,20553,602],{"className":20554},[203],[15,20556],{"className":20557,"style":199},[77],[15,20559,20561,20565,20606,20609,20612,20615,20618,20621,20624],{"className":20560},[58],[15,20562],{"className":20563,"style":20564},[62],"height:1.0497em;vertical-align:-0.2997em;",[15,20566,20568,20571],{"className":20567},[12747],[15,20569,20386],{"className":20570,"style":12753},[12747,12751,12752],[15,20572,20574],{"className":20573},[918],[15,20575,20577,20598],{"className":20576},[922,923],[15,20578,20580,20595],{"className":20579},[927],[15,20581,20584],{"className":20582,"style":20583},[931],"height:0.0017em;",[15,20585,20586,20589],{"style":12769},[15,20587],{"className":20588,"style":940},[939],[15,20590,20592],{"className":20591},[944,945,946,947],[15,20593,20389],{"className":20594},[67,68,947],[15,20596,955],{"className":20597},[954],[15,20599,20601],{"className":20600},[927],[15,20602,20604],{"className":20603,"style":12809},[931],[15,20605],{},[15,20607],{"className":20608,"style":78},[77],[15,20610,98],{"className":20611,"style":128},[67,68],[15,20613,102],{"className":20614},[132],[15,20616,3774],{"className":20617,"style":3833},[67,68],[15,20619],{"className":20620,"style":199},[77],[15,20622,602],{"className":20623},[203],[15,20625],{"className":20626,"style":199},[77],[15,20628,20630,20633,20636,20639,20642],{"className":20629},[58],[15,20631],{"className":20632,"style":124},[62],[15,20634,1425],{"className":20635},[67],[15,20637],{"className":20638,"style":199},[77],[15,20640,170],{"className":20641},[203],[15,20643],{"className":20644,"style":199},[77],[15,20646,20648,20651,20654,20657,20660,20663,20666],{"className":20647},[58],[15,20649],{"className":20650,"style":124},[62],[15,20652,20389],{"className":20653},[67,68],[15,20655,111],{"className":20656},[148],[15,20658,98],{"className":20659,"style":128},[67,68],[15,20661,102],{"className":20662},[132],[15,20664,20389],{"className":20665},[67,68],[15,20667,111],{"className":20668},[148],"\n与是否干预洒水器完全无关。",[11,20671,20672,20675,20676,20704,20705,20733,20734,21038,21039,21221,21222,21483,21484,21723,21724,10661,21727,21780],{},[305,20673,20674],{},"数值验证","：把 2.3 节给出的具体参数代入，可以直接把这一差别算出来。由于 ",[15,20677,20679,20692],{"className":20678,"translate":19},[18],[15,20680,20682],{"className":20681},[23],[25,20683,20684],{"xmlns":27},[29,20685,20686,20690],{},[32,20687,20688],{},[35,20689,3769],{},[47,20691,3769],{"encoding":49},[15,20693,20695],{"className":20694,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,20696,20698,20701],{"className":20697},[58],[15,20699],{"className":20700,"style":299},[62],[15,20702,3769],{"className":20703,"style":1394},[67,68]," 是唯一影响 ",[15,20706,20708,20721],{"className":20707,"translate":19},[18],[15,20709,20711],{"className":20710},[23],[25,20712,20713],{"xmlns":27},[29,20714,20715,20719],{},[32,20716,20717],{},[35,20718,3774],{},[47,20720,3774],{"encoding":49},[15,20722,20724],{"className":20723,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,20725,20727,20730],{"className":20726},[58],[15,20728],{"className":20729,"style":299},[62],[15,20731,3774],{"className":20732,"style":3833},[67,68]," 的变量，\n",[15,20735,20737,20815],{"className":20736,"translate":19},[18],[15,20738,20740],{"className":20739},[23],[25,20741,20742],{"xmlns":27},[29,20743,20744,20812],{},[32,20745,20746,20748,20750,20752,20754,20756,20758,20760,20762,20764,20766,20768,20770,20772,20774,20776,20778,20780,20782,20784,20786,20788,20790,20792,20794,20796,20798,20800,20803,20805,20807,20809],{},[35,20747,98],{},[39,20749,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,20751,3774],{},[39,20753,602],{},[1423,20755,1425],{},[39,20757,170],{},[35,20759,696],{},[35,20761,699],{},[39,20763,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,20765,3769],{},[35,20767,11],{},[39,20769,602],{},[1423,20771,1425],{},[39,20773,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,20775,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,20777,602],{},[35,20779,98],{},[39,20781,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,20783,3774],{},[39,20785,602],{},[1423,20787,1425],{},[39,20789,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,20791,602],{},[1423,20793,13765],{},[39,20795,1602],{},[1423,20797,13904],{},[39,20799,2890],{},[1423,20801,20802],{},"0.7",[39,20804,1602],{},[1423,20806,13951],{},[39,20808,602],{},[1423,20810,20811],{},"0.31",[47,20813,20814],{"encoding":49},"P(R=1\\mid do(Sp=1)) = P(R=1) = 0.3 \\times 0.8 + 0.7 \\times 0.1 = 0.31",[15,20816,20818,20842,20860,20890,20911,20935,20956,20975,20993,21011,21029],{"className":20817,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,20819,20821,20824,20827,20830,20833,20836,20839],{"className":20820},[58],[15,20822],{"className":20823,"style":124},[62],[15,20825,98],{"className":20826,"style":128},[67,68],[15,20828,102],{"className":20829},[132],[15,20831,3774],{"className":20832,"style":3833},[67,68],[15,20834],{"className":20835,"style":199},[77],[15,20837,602],{"className":20838},[203],[15,20840],{"className":20841,"style":199},[77],[15,20843,20845,20848,20851,20854,20857],{"className":20844},[58],[15,20846],{"className":20847,"style":124},[62],[15,20849,1425],{"className":20850},[67],[15,20852],{"className":20853,"style":199},[77],[15,20855,170],{"className":20856},[203],[15,20858],{"className":20859,"style":199},[77],[15,20861,20863,20866,20869,20872,20875,20878,20881,20884,20887],{"className":20862},[58],[15,20864],{"className":20865,"style":124},[62],[15,20867,696],{"className":20868},[67,68],[15,20870,699],{"className":20871},[67,68],[15,20873,102],{"className":20874},[132],[15,20876,3769],{"className":20877,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,20879,11],{"className":20880},[67,68],[15,20882],{"className":20883,"style":199},[77],[15,20885,602],{"className":20886},[203],[15,20888],{"className":20889,"style":199},[77],[15,20891,20893,20896,20899,20902,20905,20908],{"className":20892},[58],[15,20894],{"className":20895,"style":124},[62],[15,20897,1425],{"className":20898},[67],[15,20900,759],{"className":20901},[148],[15,20903],{"className":20904,"style":199},[77],[15,20906,602],{"className":20907},[203],[15,20909],{"className":20910,"style":199},[77],[15,20912,20914,20917,20920,20923,20926,20929,20932],{"className":20913},[58],[15,20915],{"className":20916,"style":124},[62],[15,20918,98],{"className":20919,"style":128},[67,68],[15,20921,102],{"className":20922},[132],[15,20924,3774],{"className":20925,"style":3833},[67,68],[15,20927],{"className":20928,"style":199},[77],[15,20930,602],{"className":20931},[203],[15,20933],{"className":20934,"style":199},[77],[15,20936,20938,20941,20944,20947,20950,20953],{"className":20937},[58],[15,20939],{"className":20940,"style":124},[62],[15,20942,1425],{"className":20943},[67],[15,20945,111],{"className":20946},[148],[15,20948],{"className":20949,"style":199},[77],[15,20951,602],{"className":20952},[203],[15,20954],{"className":20955,"style":199},[77],[15,20957,20959,20963,20966,20969,20972],{"className":20958},[58],[15,20960],{"className":20961,"style":20962},[62],"height:0.7278em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[15,20964,13765],{"className":20965},[67],[15,20967],{"className":20968,"style":82},[77],[15,20970,1602],{"className":20971},[1646],[15,20973],{"className":20974,"style":82},[77],[15,20976,20978,20981,20984,20987,20990],{"className":20977},[58],[15,20979],{"className":20980,"style":20962},[62],[15,20982,13904],{"className":20983},[67],[15,20985],{"className":20986,"style":82},[77],[15,20988,2890],{"className":20989},[1646],[15,20991],{"className":20992,"style":82},[77],[15,20994,20996,20999,21002,21005,21008],{"className":20995},[58],[15,20997],{"className":20998,"style":20962},[62],[15,21000,20802],{"className":21001},[67],[15,21003],{"className":21004,"style":82},[77],[15,21006,1602],{"className":21007},[1646],[15,21009],{"className":21010,"style":82},[77],[15,21012,21014,21017,21020,21023,21026],{"className":21013},[58],[15,21015],{"className":21016,"style":3145},[62],[15,21018,13951],{"className":21019},[67],[15,21021],{"className":21022,"style":199},[77],[15,21024,602],{"className":21025},[203],[15,21027],{"className":21028,"style":199},[77],[15,21030,21032,21035],{"className":21031},[58],[15,21033],{"className":21034,"style":3145},[62],[15,21036,20811],{"className":21037},[67],"\n而由 ",[15,21040,21042,21089],{"className":21041,"translate":19},[18],[15,21043,21045],{"className":21044},[23],[25,21046,21047],{"xmlns":27},[29,21048,21049,21086],{},[32,21050,21051,21053,21055,21057,21059,21061,21063,21065,21067,21069,21071,21073,21075,21077,21079,21081,21083],{},[35,21052,98],{},[39,21054,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,21056,3769],{},[35,21058,11],{},[39,21060,602],{},[1423,21062,1425],{},[39,21064,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,21066,602],{},[1423,21068,13765],{},[39,21070,1602],{},[1423,21072,13951],{},[39,21074,2890],{},[1423,21076,20802],{},[39,21078,1602],{},[1423,21080,14152],{},[39,21082,602],{},[1423,21084,21085],{},"0.45",[47,21087,21088],{"encoding":49},"P(Sp=1) = 0.3\\times 0.1 + 0.7\\times 0.6 = 0.45",[15,21090,21092,21119,21140,21158,21176,21194,21212],{"className":21091,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,21093,21095,21098,21101,21104,21107,21110,21113,21116],{"className":21094},[58],[15,21096],{"className":21097,"style":124},[62],[15,21099,98],{"className":21100,"style":128},[67,68],[15,21102,102],{"className":21103},[132],[15,21105,3769],{"className":21106,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,21108,11],{"className":21109},[67,68],[15,21111],{"className":21112,"style":199},[77],[15,21114,602],{"className":21115},[203],[15,21117],{"className":21118,"style":199},[77],[15,21120,21122,21125,21128,21131,21134,21137],{"className":21121},[58],[15,21123],{"className":21124,"style":124},[62],[15,21126,1425],{"className":21127},[67],[15,21129,111],{"className":21130},[148],[15,21132],{"className":21133,"style":199},[77],[15,21135,602],{"className":21136},[203],[15,21138],{"className":21139,"style":199},[77],[15,21141,21143,21146,21149,21152,21155],{"className":21142},[58],[15,21144],{"className":21145,"style":20962},[62],[15,21147,13765],{"className":21148},[67],[15,21150],{"className":21151,"style":82},[77],[15,21153,1602],{"className":21154},[1646],[15,21156],{"className":21157,"style":82},[77],[15,21159,21161,21164,21167,21170,21173],{"className":21160},[58],[15,21162],{"className":21163,"style":20962},[62],[15,21165,13951],{"className":21166},[67],[15,21168],{"className":21169,"style":82},[77],[15,21171,2890],{"className":21172},[1646],[15,21174],{"className":21175,"style":82},[77],[15,21177,21179,21182,21185,21188,21191],{"className":21178},[58],[15,21180],{"className":21181,"style":20962},[62],[15,21183,20802],{"className":21184},[67],[15,21186],{"className":21187,"style":82},[77],[15,21189,1602],{"className":21190},[1646],[15,21192],{"className":21193,"style":82},[77],[15,21195,21197,21200,21203,21206,21209],{"className":21196},[58],[15,21198],{"className":21199,"style":3145},[62],[15,21201,14152],{"className":21202},[67],[15,21204],{"className":21205,"style":199},[77],[15,21207,602],{"className":21208},[203],[15,21210],{"className":21211,"style":199},[77],[15,21213,21215,21218],{"className":21214},[58],[15,21216],{"className":21217,"style":3145},[62],[15,21219,21085],{"className":21220},[67]," 及 ",[15,21223,21225,21288],{"className":21224,"translate":19},[18],[15,21226,21228],{"className":21227},[23],[25,21229,21230],{"xmlns":27},[29,21231,21232,21285],{},[32,21233,21234,21236,21238,21240,21242,21244,21246,21248,21250,21252,21254,21256,21258,21260,21262,21264,21266,21268,21270,21272,21274,21276,21278,21280,21282],{},[35,21235,98],{},[39,21237,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,21239,3774],{},[39,21241,602],{},[1423,21243,1425],{},[39,21245,42],{"separator":41},[35,21247,3769],{},[35,21249,11],{},[39,21251,602],{},[1423,21253,1425],{},[39,21255,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,21257,602],{},[1423,21259,13765],{},[39,21261,1602],{},[1423,21263,13904],{},[39,21265,1602],{},[1423,21267,13951],{},[39,21269,2890],{},[1423,21271,20802],{},[39,21273,1602],{},[1423,21275,13951],{},[39,21277,1602],{},[1423,21279,14152],{},[39,21281,602],{},[1423,21283,21284],{},"0.066",[47,21286,21287],{"encoding":49},"P(R=1, Sp=1) = 0.3\\times 0.8\\times 0.1 + 0.7\\times 0.1\\times 0.6 = 0.066",[15,21289,21291,21315,21345,21366,21384,21402,21420,21438,21456,21474],{"className":21290,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,21292,21294,21297,21300,21303,21306,21309,21312],{"className":21293},[58],[15,21295],{"className":21296,"style":124},[62],[15,21298,98],{"className":21299,"style":128},[67,68],[15,21301,102],{"className":21302},[132],[15,21304,3774],{"className":21305,"style":3833},[67,68],[15,21307],{"className":21308,"style":199},[77],[15,21310,602],{"className":21311},[203],[15,21313],{"className":21314,"style":199},[77],[15,21316,21318,21321,21324,21327,21330,21333,21336,21339,21342],{"className":21317},[58],[15,21319],{"className":21320,"style":63},[62],[15,21322,1425],{"className":21323},[67],[15,21325,42],{"className":21326},[73],[15,21328],{"className":21329,"style":78},[77],[15,21331,3769],{"className":21332,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,21334,11],{"className":21335},[67,68],[15,21337],{"className":21338,"style":199},[77],[15,21340,602],{"className":21341},[203],[15,21343],{"className":21344,"style":199},[77],[15,21346,21348,21351,21354,21357,21360,21363],{"className":21347},[58],[15,21349],{"className":21350,"style":124},[62],[15,21352,1425],{"className":21353},[67],[15,21355,111],{"className":21356},[148],[15,21358],{"className":21359,"style":199},[77],[15,21361,602],{"className":21362},[203],[15,21364],{"className":21365,"style":199},[77],[15,21367,21369,21372,21375,21378,21381],{"className":21368},[58],[15,21370],{"className":21371,"style":20962},[62],[15,21373,13765],{"className":21374},[67],[15,21376],{"className":21377,"style":82},[77],[15,21379,1602],{"className":21380},[1646],[15,21382],{"className":21383,"style":82},[77],[15,21385,21387,21390,21393,21396,21399],{"className":21386},[58],[15,21388],{"className":21389,"style":20962},[62],[15,21391,13904],{"className":21392},[67],[15,21394],{"className":21395,"style":82},[77],[15,21397,1602],{"className":21398},[1646],[15,21400],{"className":21401,"style":82},[77],[15,21403,21405,21408,21411,21414,21417],{"className":21404},[58],[15,21406],{"className":21407,"style":20962},[62],[15,21409,13951],{"className":21410},[67],[15,21412],{"className":21413,"style":82},[77],[15,21415,2890],{"className":21416},[1646],[15,21418],{"className":21419,"style":82},[77],[15,21421,21423,21426,21429,21432,21435],{"className":21422},[58],[15,21424],{"className":21425,"style":20962},[62],[15,21427,20802],{"className":21428},[67],[15,21430],{"className":21431,"style":82},[77],[15,21433,1602],{"className":21434},[1646],[15,21436],{"className":21437,"style":82},[77],[15,21439,21441,21444,21447,21450,21453],{"className":21440},[58],[15,21442],{"className":21443,"style":20962},[62],[15,21445,13951],{"className":21446},[67],[15,21448],{"className":21449,"style":82},[77],[15,21451,1602],{"className":21452},[1646],[15,21454],{"className":21455,"style":82},[77],[15,21457,21459,21462,21465,21468,21471],{"className":21458},[58],[15,21460],{"className":21461,"style":3145},[62],[15,21463,14152],{"className":21464},[67],[15,21466],{"className":21467,"style":199},[77],[15,21469,602],{"className":21470},[203],[15,21472],{"className":21473,"style":199},[77],[15,21475,21477,21480],{"className":21476},[58],[15,21478],{"className":21479,"style":3145},[62],[15,21481,21284],{"className":21482},[67],"，得\n",[15,21485,21487,21536],{"className":21486,"translate":19},[18],[15,21488,21490],{"className":21489},[23],[25,21491,21492],{"xmlns":27},[29,21493,21494,21533],{},[32,21495,21496,21498,21500,21502,21504,21506,21508,21510,21512,21514,21516,21518,21520,21527,21530],{},[35,21497,98],{},[39,21499,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,21501,3774],{},[39,21503,602],{},[1423,21505,1425],{},[39,21507,170],{},[35,21509,3769],{},[35,21511,11],{},[39,21513,602],{},[1423,21515,1425],{},[39,21517,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,21519,602],{},[21521,21522,21523,21525],"mfrac",{},[1423,21524,21284],{},[1423,21526,21085],{},[39,21528,21529],{},"≈",[1423,21531,21532],{},"0.147",[47,21534,21535],{"encoding":49},"P(R=1 \\mid Sp=1) = \\frac{0.066}{0.45} \\approx 0.147",[15,21537,21539,21563,21581,21602,21623,21714],{"className":21538,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,21540,21542,21545,21548,21551,21554,21557,21560],{"className":21541},[58],[15,21543],{"className":21544,"style":124},[62],[15,21546,98],{"className":21547,"style":128},[67,68],[15,21549,102],{"className":21550},[132],[15,21552,3774],{"className":21553,"style":3833},[67,68],[15,21555],{"className":21556,"style":199},[77],[15,21558,602],{"className":21559},[203],[15,21561],{"className":21562,"style":199},[77],[15,21564,21566,21569,21572,21575,21578],{"className":21565},[58],[15,21567],{"className":21568,"style":124},[62],[15,21570,1425],{"className":21571},[67],[15,21573],{"className":21574,"style":199},[77],[15,21576,170],{"className":21577},[203],[15,21579],{"className":21580,"style":199},[77],[15,21582,21584,21587,21590,21593,21596,21599],{"className":21583},[58],[15,21585],{"className":21586,"style":63},[62],[15,21588,3769],{"className":21589,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,21591,11],{"className":21592},[67,68],[15,21594],{"className":21595,"style":199},[77],[15,21597,602],{"className":21598},[203],[15,21600],{"className":21601,"style":199},[77],[15,21603,21605,21608,21611,21614,21617,21620],{"className":21604},[58],[15,21606],{"className":21607,"style":124},[62],[15,21609,1425],{"className":21610},[67],[15,21612,111],{"className":21613},[148],[15,21615],{"className":21616,"style":199},[77],[15,21618,602],{"className":21619},[203],[15,21621],{"className":21622,"style":199},[77],[15,21624,21626,21630,21705,21708,21711],{"className":21625},[58],[15,21627],{"className":21628,"style":21629},[62],"height:1.1901em;vertical-align:-0.345em;",[15,21631,21633,21636,21702],{"className":21632},[67],[15,21634],{"className":21635},[132,19474],[15,21637,21639],{"className":21638},[21521],[15,21640,21642,21693],{"className":21641},[922,923],[15,21643,21645,21690],{"className":21644},[927],[15,21646,21649,21664,21675],{"className":21647,"style":21648},[931],"height:0.8451em;",[15,21650,21652,21655],{"style":21651},"top:-2.655em;",[15,21653],{"className":21654,"style":18651},[939],[15,21656,21658],{"className":21657},[944,945,946,947],[15,21659,21661],{"className":21660},[67,947],[15,21662,21085],{"className":21663},[67,947],[15,21665,21667,21670],{"style":21666},"top:-3.23em;",[15,21668],{"className":21669,"style":18651},[939],[15,21671],{"className":21672,"style":21674},[21673],"frac-line","border-bottom-width:0.04em;",[15,21676,21678,21681],{"style":21677},"top:-3.394em;",[15,21679],{"className":21680,"style":18651},[939],[15,21682,21684],{"className":21683},[944,945,946,947],[15,21685,21687],{"className":21686},[67,947],[15,21688,21284],{"className":21689},[67,947],[15,21691,955],{"className":21692},[954],[15,21694,21696],{"className":21695},[927],[15,21697,21700],{"className":21698,"style":21699},[931],"height:0.345em;",[15,21701],{},[15,21703],{"className":21704},[148,19474],[15,21706],{"className":21707,"style":199},[77],[15,21709,21529],{"className":21710},[203],[15,21712],{"className":21713,"style":199},[77],[15,21715,21717,21720],{"className":21716},[58],[15,21718],{"className":21719,"style":3145},[62],[15,21721,21532],{"className":21722},[67],"\n二者相差一倍以上，且方向与正文的分析完全一致：",[305,21725,21726],{},"观察到洒水器开着，反而使我们对「正在下雨」的信念大幅下降",[15,21728,21730,21749],{"className":21729,"translate":19},[18],[15,21731,21733],{"className":21732},[23],[25,21734,21735],{"xmlns":27},[29,21736,21737,21746],{},[32,21738,21739,21741,21744],{},[1423,21740,21532],{},[39,21742,21743],{},"\u003C",[1423,21745,20811],{},[47,21747,21748],{"encoding":49},"0.147 \u003C 0.31",[15,21750,21752,21771],{"className":21751,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,21753,21755,21759,21762,21765,21768],{"className":21754},[58],[15,21756],{"className":21757,"style":21758},[62],"height:0.6835em;vertical-align:-0.0391em;",[15,21760,21532],{"className":21761},[67],[15,21763],{"className":21764,"style":199},[77],[15,21766,21743],{"className":21767},[203],[15,21769],{"className":21770,"style":199},[77],[15,21772,21774,21777],{"className":21773},[58],[15,21775],{"className":21776,"style":3145},[62],[15,21778,20811],{"className":21779},[67],"）——因为洒水器在旱季更常开启，观测到它本身即构成「当前是旱季」的证据，进而压低降雨概率。这两个数字之间的差距，就是「相关」与「因果」在同一个模型内部的全部分量。",[11,21782,21783,21784,21959],{},"一般地，",[15,21785,21787,21833],{"className":21786,"translate":19},[18],[15,21788,21790],{"className":21789},[23],[25,21791,21792],{"xmlns":27},[29,21793,21794,21830],{},[32,21795,21796,21798,21800,21802,21804,21806,21808,21810,21812,21814,21816,21818,21820,21822,21824,21826,21828],{},[35,21797,98],{},[39,21799,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,21801,534],{},[39,21803,170],{},[35,21805,539],{},[39,21807,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,21809,18853],{"mathvariant":878},[35,21811,98],{},[39,21813,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,21815,534],{},[39,21817,170],{},[35,21819,696],{},[35,21821,699],{},[39,21823,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,21825,539],{},[39,21827,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,21829,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,21831,21832],{"encoding":49},"P(y\\mid x) \\neq P(y \\mid do(x))",[15,21834,21836,21860,21914,21938],{"className":21835,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,21837,21839,21842,21845,21848,21851,21854,21857],{"className":21838},[58],[15,21840],{"className":21841,"style":124},[62],[15,21843,98],{"className":21844,"style":128},[67,68],[15,21846,102],{"className":21847},[132],[15,21849,534],{"className":21850,"style":563},[67,68],[15,21852],{"className":21853,"style":199},[77],[15,21855,170],{"className":21856},[203],[15,21858],{"className":21859,"style":199},[77],[15,21861,21863,21866,21869,21872,21875,21911],{"className":21862},[58],[15,21864],{"className":21865,"style":124},[62],[15,21867,539],{"className":21868},[67,68],[15,21870,111],{"className":21871},[148],[15,21873],{"className":21874,"style":199},[77],[15,21876,21878,21905,21908],{"className":21877},[203],[15,21879,21881],{"className":21880},[203],[15,21882,21884],{"className":21883},[67,4459],[15,21885,21887],{"className":21886},[4463],[15,21888,21890,21893,21902],{"className":21889},[4467],[15,21891],{"className":21892,"style":4446},[62],[15,21894,21896],{"className":21895},[4474],[15,21897,21899],{"className":21898},[67],[15,21900,4481],{"className":21901},[203],[15,21903],{"className":21904},[4485],[15,21906],{"className":21907},[77,4489],[15,21909,602],{"className":21910},[203],[15,21912],{"className":21913,"style":199},[77],[15,21915,21917,21920,21923,21926,21929,21932,21935],{"className":21916},[58],[15,21918],{"className":21919,"style":124},[62],[15,21921,98],{"className":21922,"style":128},[67,68],[15,21924,102],{"className":21925},[132],[15,21927,534],{"className":21928,"style":563},[67,68],[15,21930],{"className":21931,"style":199},[77],[15,21933,170],{"className":21934},[203],[15,21936],{"className":21937,"style":199},[77],[15,21939,21941,21944,21947,21950,21953,21956],{"className":21940},[58],[15,21942],{"className":21943,"style":124},[62],[15,21945,696],{"className":21946},[67,68],[15,21948,699],{"className":21949},[67,68],[15,21951,102],{"className":21952},[132],[15,21954,539],{"className":21955},[67,68],[15,21957,759],{"className":21958},[148],"，二者的差异正是「相关不蕴含因果」这一箴言在结构方程框架下的精确定量表述：前者包含了通过混杂路径（如叉结构）传递的虚假信息，后者则通过对结构方程的手术式修改将其剔除。",[1309,21961,21963],{"id":21962},"_33-反事实从群体到个体","3.3 反事实：从群体到个体",[11,21965,21966,21967,22050,22051,22054,22055,811,22105,22133,22134,22137,22138,22289,22290,1239,22318,22447,22448,22476],{},"干预分布 ",[15,21968,21970,22002],{"className":21969,"translate":19},[18],[15,21971,21973],{"className":21972},[23],[25,21974,21975],{"xmlns":27},[29,21976,21977,21999],{},[32,21978,21979,21981,21983,21985,21987,21989,21991,21993,21995,21997],{},[35,21980,98],{},[39,21982,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,21984,534],{},[39,21986,170],{},[35,21988,696],{},[35,21990,699],{},[39,21992,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,21994,539],{},[39,21996,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,21998,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,22000,22001],{"encoding":49},"P(y \\mid do(x))",[15,22003,22005,22029],{"className":22004,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,22006,22008,22011,22014,22017,22020,22023,22026],{"className":22007},[58],[15,22009],{"className":22010,"style":124},[62],[15,22012,98],{"className":22013,"style":128},[67,68],[15,22015,102],{"className":22016},[132],[15,22018,534],{"className":22019,"style":563},[67,68],[15,22021],{"className":22022,"style":199},[77],[15,22024,170],{"className":22025},[203],[15,22027],{"className":22028,"style":199},[77],[15,22030,22032,22035,22038,22041,22044,22047],{"className":22031},[58],[15,22033],{"className":22034,"style":124},[62],[15,22036,696],{"className":22037},[67,68],[15,22039,699],{"className":22040},[67,68],[15,22042,102],{"className":22043},[132],[15,22045,539],{"className":22046},[67,68],[15,22048,759],{"className":22049},[148]," 回答的是",[305,22052,22053],{},"群体或总体层面","的问题：「若对某个（服从既定分布的）个体施加干预 ",[15,22056,22058,22075],{"className":22057,"translate":19},[18],[15,22059,22061],{"className":22060},[23],[25,22062,22063],{"xmlns":27},[29,22064,22065,22073],{},[32,22066,22067,22069,22071],{},[35,22068,37],{},[39,22070,602],{},[35,22072,539],{},[47,22074,607],{"encoding":49},[15,22076,22078,22096],{"className":22077,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,22079,22081,22084,22087,22090,22093],{"className":22080},[58],[15,22082],{"className":22083,"style":299},[62],[15,22085,37],{"className":22086,"style":69},[67,68],[15,22088],{"className":22089,"style":199},[77],[15,22091,602],{"className":22092},[203],[15,22094],{"className":22095,"style":199},[77],[15,22097,22099,22102],{"className":22098},[58],[15,22100],{"className":22101,"style":635},[62],[15,22103,539],{"className":22104},[67,68],[15,22106,22108,22121],{"className":22107,"translate":19},[18],[15,22109,22111],{"className":22110},[23],[25,22112,22113],{"xmlns":27},[29,22114,22115,22119],{},[32,22116,22117],{},[35,22118,45],{},[47,22120,45],{"encoding":49},[15,22122,22124],{"className":22123,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,22125,22127,22130],{"className":22126},[58],[15,22128],{"className":22129,"style":299},[62],[15,22131,45],{"className":22132,"style":82},[67,68]," 的分布会是什么」。而反事实推理进一步追问",[305,22135,22136],{},"特定已观测个体","层面的问题：「对于这个已经观测到 ",[15,22139,22141,22174],{"className":22140,"translate":19},[18],[15,22142,22144],{"className":22143},[23],[25,22145,22146],{"xmlns":27},[29,22147,22148,22172],{},[32,22149,22150,22152,22154,22160,22162,22164,22166],{},[35,22151,37],{},[39,22153,602],{},[872,22155,22156,22158],{},[35,22157,539],{},[39,22159,880],{"mathvariant":878,"lspace":879,"rspace":879},[39,22161,42],{"separator":41},[35,22163,45],{},[39,22165,602],{},[872,22167,22168,22170],{},[35,22169,534],{},[39,22171,880],{"mathvariant":878,"lspace":879,"rspace":879},[47,22173,1093],{"encoding":49},[15,22175,22177,22195,22251],{"className":22176,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,22178,22180,22183,22186,22189,22192],{"className":22179},[58],[15,22181],{"className":22182,"style":299},[62],[15,22184,37],{"className":22185,"style":69},[67,68],[15,22187],{"className":22188,"style":199},[77],[15,22190,602],{"className":22191},[203],[15,22193],{"className":22194,"style":199},[77],[15,22196,22198,22201,22233,22236,22239,22242,22245,22248],{"className":22197},[58],[15,22199],{"className":22200,"style":1121},[62],[15,22202,22204,22207],{"className":22203},[67],[15,22205,539],{"className":22206},[67,68],[15,22208,22210],{"className":22209},[918],[15,22211,22213],{"className":22212},[922],[15,22214,22216],{"className":22215},[927],[15,22217,22219],{"className":22218,"style":999},[931],[15,22220,22221,22224],{"style":1002},[15,22222],{"className":22223,"style":940},[939],[15,22225,22227],{"className":22226},[944,945,946,947],[15,22228,22230],{"className":22229},[67,947],[15,22231,880],{"className":22232},[67,947],[15,22234,42],{"className":22235},[73],[15,22237],{"className":22238,"style":78},[77],[15,22240,45],{"className":22241,"style":82},[67,68],[15,22243],{"className":22244,"style":199},[77],[15,22246,602],{"className":22247},[203],[15,22249],{"className":22250,"style":199},[77],[15,22252,22254,22257],{"className":22253},[58],[15,22255],{"className":22256,"style":1121},[62],[15,22258,22260,22263],{"className":22259},[67],[15,22261,534],{"className":22262,"style":563},[67,68],[15,22264,22266],{"className":22265},[918],[15,22267,22269],{"className":22268},[922],[15,22270,22272],{"className":22271},[927],[15,22273,22275],{"className":22274,"style":999},[931],[15,22276,22277,22280],{"style":1002},[15,22278],{"className":22279,"style":940},[939],[15,22281,22283],{"className":22282},[944,945,946,947],[15,22284,22286],{"className":22285},[67,947],[15,22287,880],{"className":22288},[67,947]," 的具体个体，若当初 ",[15,22291,22293,22306],{"className":22292,"translate":19},[18],[15,22294,22296],{"className":22295},[23],[25,22297,22298],{"xmlns":27},[29,22299,22300,22304],{},[32,22301,22302],{},[35,22303,37],{},[47,22305,37],{"encoding":49},[15,22307,22309],{"className":22308,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,22310,22312,22315],{"className":22311},[58],[15,22313],{"className":22314,"style":299},[62],[15,22316,37],{"className":22317,"style":69},[67,68],[15,22319,22321,22349],{"className":22320,"translate":19},[18],[15,22322,22324],{"className":22323},[23],[25,22325,22326],{"xmlns":27},[29,22327,22328,22346],{},[32,22329,22330,22332,22334,22336,22338,22344],{},[35,22331,539],{},[238,22333,3916],{},[39,22335,102],{"stretchy":101},[39,22337,18853],{"mathvariant":878},[872,22339,22340,22342],{},[35,22341,539],{},[39,22343,880],{"mathvariant":878,"lspace":879,"rspace":879},[39,22345,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,22347,22348],{"encoding":49},"x \\ (\\neq x')",[15,22350,22352,22406],{"className":22351,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,22353,22355,22358,22361,22364,22367,22403],{"className":22354},[58],[15,22356],{"className":22357,"style":124},[62],[15,22359,539],{"className":22360},[67,68],[15,22362,3916],{"className":22363},[77],[15,22365,102],{"className":22366},[132],[15,22368,22370,22397,22400],{"className":22369},[203],[15,22371,22373],{"className":22372},[203],[15,22374,22376],{"className":22375},[67,4459],[15,22377,22379],{"className":22378},[4463],[15,22380,22382,22385,22394],{"className":22381},[4467],[15,22383],{"className":22384,"style":4446},[62],[15,22386,22388],{"className":22387},[4474],[15,22389,22391],{"className":22390},[67],[15,22392,4481],{"className":22393},[203],[15,22395],{"className":22396},[4485],[15,22398],{"className":22399},[77,4489],[15,22401,602],{"className":22402},[203],[15,22404],{"className":22405,"style":199},[77],[15,22407,22409,22412,22444],{"className":22408},[58],[15,22410],{"className":22411,"style":980},[62],[15,22413,22415,22418],{"className":22414},[67],[15,22416,539],{"className":22417},[67,68],[15,22419,22421],{"className":22420},[918],[15,22422,22424],{"className":22423},[922],[15,22425,22427],{"className":22426},[927],[15,22428,22430],{"className":22429,"style":999},[931],[15,22431,22432,22435],{"style":1002},[15,22433],{"className":22434,"style":940},[939],[15,22436,22438],{"className":22437},[944,945,946,947],[15,22439,22441],{"className":22440},[67,947],[15,22442,880],{"className":22443},[67,947],[15,22445,111],{"className":22446},[148],"，其 ",[15,22449,22451,22464],{"className":22450,"translate":19},[18],[15,22452,22454],{"className":22453},[23],[25,22455,22456],{"xmlns":27},[29,22457,22458,22462],{},[32,22459,22460],{},[35,22461,45],{},[47,22463,45],{"encoding":49},[15,22465,22467],{"className":22466,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,22468,22470,22473],{"className":22469},[58],[15,22471],{"className":22472,"style":299},[62],[15,22474,45],{"className":22475,"style":82},[67,68]," 会是什么」。这需要更精细的结构。",[1314,22478,22480],{"title":22479},"定义 3.4（潜在结果，Potential Outcome）",[11,22481,11046,22482,22510,22511,22562,22563,22591,22592,22642,22643,22646,22647,6686,22716,22766,22767],{},[15,22483,22485,22498],{"className":22484,"translate":19},[18],[15,22486,22488],{"className":22487},[23],[25,22489,22490],{"xmlns":27},[29,22491,22492,22496],{},[32,22493,22494],{},[35,22495,9452],{},[47,22497,9452],{"encoding":49},[15,22499,22501],{"className":22500,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,22502,22504,22507],{"className":22503},[58],[15,22505],{"className":22506,"style":299},[62],[15,22508,9452],{"className":22509,"style":2566},[67,68]," 与其外生变量的一次具体实现 ",[15,22512,22514,22532],{"className":22513,"translate":19},[18],[15,22515,22517],{"className":22516},[23],[25,22518,22519],{"xmlns":27},[29,22520,22521,22529],{},[32,22522,22523,22525,22527],{},[35,22524,2454],{},[39,22526,602],{},[35,22528,13753],{},[47,22530,22531],{"encoding":49},"U=u",[15,22533,22535,22553],{"className":22534,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,22536,22538,22541,22544,22547,22550],{"className":22537},[58],[15,22539],{"className":22540,"style":299},[62],[15,22542,2454],{"className":22543,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,22545],{"className":22546,"style":199},[77],[15,22548,602],{"className":22549},[203],[15,22551],{"className":22552,"style":199},[77],[15,22554,22556,22559],{"className":22555},[58],[15,22557],{"className":22558,"style":635},[62],[15,22560,13753],{"className":22561},[67,68],"（对应一个特定「个体」或「世界状态」），变量 ",[15,22564,22566,22579],{"className":22565,"translate":19},[18],[15,22567,22569],{"className":22568},[23],[25,22570,22571],{"xmlns":27},[29,22572,22573,22577],{},[32,22574,22575],{},[35,22576,45],{},[47,22578,45],{"encoding":49},[15,22580,22582],{"className":22581,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,22583,22585,22588],{"className":22584},[58],[15,22586],{"className":22587,"style":299},[62],[15,22589,45],{"className":22590,"style":82},[67,68]," 在假设 ",[15,22593,22595,22612],{"className":22594,"translate":19},[18],[15,22596,22598],{"className":22597},[23],[25,22599,22600],{"xmlns":27},[29,22601,22602,22610],{},[32,22603,22604,22606,22608],{},[35,22605,37],{},[39,22607,602],{},[35,22609,539],{},[47,22611,607],{"encoding":49},[15,22613,22615,22633],{"className":22614,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,22616,22618,22621,22624,22627,22630],{"className":22617},[58],[15,22619],{"className":22620,"style":299},[62],[15,22622,37],{"className":22623,"style":69},[67,68],[15,22625],{"className":22626,"style":199},[77],[15,22628,602],{"className":22629},[203],[15,22631],{"className":22632,"style":199},[77],[15,22634,22636,22639],{"className":22635},[58],[15,22637],{"className":22638,"style":635},[62],[15,22640,539],{"className":22641},[67,68]," 下的",[305,22644,22645],{},"潜在结果","定义为子模型 ",[15,22648,22650,22667],{"className":22649,"translate":19},[18],[15,22651,22653],{"className":22652},[23],[25,22654,22655],{"xmlns":27},[29,22656,22657,22665],{},[32,22658,22659],{},[863,22660,22661,22663],{},[35,22662,9452],{},[35,22664,539],{},[47,22666,18160],{"encoding":49},[15,22668,22670],{"className":22669,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,22671,22673,22676],{"className":22672},[58],[15,22674],{"className":22675,"style":1863},[62],[15,22677,22679,22682],{"className":22678},[67],[15,22680,9452],{"className":22681,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,22683,22685],{"className":22684},[918],[15,22686,22688,22708],{"className":22687},[922,923],[15,22689,22691,22705],{"className":22690},[927],[15,22692,22694],{"className":22693,"style":932},[931],[15,22695,22696,22699],{"style":2581},[15,22697],{"className":22698,"style":940},[939],[15,22700,22702],{"className":22701},[944,945,946,947],[15,22703,539],{"className":22704},[67,68,947],[15,22706,955],{"className":22707},[954],[15,22709,22711],{"className":22710},[927],[15,22712,22714],{"className":22713,"style":962},[931],[15,22715],{},[15,22717,22719,22736],{"className":22718,"translate":19},[18],[15,22720,22722],{"className":22721},[23],[25,22723,22724],{"xmlns":27},[29,22725,22726,22734],{},[32,22727,22728,22730,22732],{},[35,22729,2454],{},[39,22731,602],{},[35,22733,13753],{},[47,22735,22531],{"encoding":49},[15,22737,22739,22757],{"className":22738,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,22740,22742,22745,22748,22751,22754],{"className":22741},[58],[15,22743],{"className":22744,"style":299},[62],[15,22746,2454],{"className":22747,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,22749],{"className":22750,"style":199},[77],[15,22752,602],{"className":22753},[203],[15,22755],{"className":22756,"style":199},[77],[15,22758,22760,22763],{"className":22759},[58],[15,22761],{"className":22762,"style":635},[62],[15,22764,13753],{"className":22765},[67,68]," 下的取值：\n",[15,22768,22770,22814],{"className":22769,"translate":19},[18],[15,22771,22773],{"className":22772},[23],[25,22774,22775],{"xmlns":27},[29,22776,22777,22811],{},[32,22778,22779,22785,22787,22789,22791,22793,22795,22805,22807,22809],{},[863,22780,22781,22783],{},[35,22782,45],{},[35,22784,539],{},[39,22786,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,22788,13753],{},[39,22790,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,22792,8850],{},[39,22794,602],{},[863,22796,22797,22799],{},[35,22798,45],{},[863,22800,22801,22803],{},[35,22802,9452],{},[35,22804,539],{},[39,22806,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,22808,13753],{},[39,22810,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,22812,22813],{"encoding":49},"Y_x(u) := Y_{M_x}(u)",[15,22815,22817,22881],{"className":22816,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,22818,22820,22823,22863,22866,22869,22872,22875,22878],{"className":22819},[58],[15,22821],{"className":22822,"style":124},[62],[15,22824,22826,22829],{"className":22825},[67],[15,22827,45],{"className":22828,"style":82},[67,68],[15,22830,22832],{"className":22831},[918],[15,22833,22835,22855],{"className":22834},[922,923],[15,22836,22838,22852],{"className":22837},[927],[15,22839,22841],{"className":22840,"style":932},[931],[15,22842,22843,22846],{"style":1497},[15,22844],{"className":22845,"style":940},[939],[15,22847,22849],{"className":22848},[944,945,946,947],[15,22850,539],{"className":22851},[67,68,947],[15,22853,955],{"className":22854},[954],[15,22856,22858],{"className":22857},[927],[15,22859,22861],{"className":22860,"style":962},[931],[15,22862],{},[15,22864,102],{"className":22865},[132],[15,22867,13753],{"className":22868},[67,68],[15,22870,111],{"className":22871},[148],[15,22873],{"className":22874,"style":199},[77],[15,22876,8886],{"className":22877},[203],[15,22879],{"className":22880,"style":199},[77],[15,22882,22884,22887,22967,22970,22973],{"className":22883},[58],[15,22885],{"className":22886,"style":18329},[62],[15,22888,22890,22893],{"className":22889},[67],[15,22891,45],{"className":22892,"style":82},[67,68],[15,22894,22896],{"className":22895},[918],[15,22897,22899,22959],{"className":22898},[922,923],[15,22900,22902,22956],{"className":22901},[927],[15,22903,22905],{"className":22904,"style":7346},[931],[15,22906,22907,22910],{"style":1497},[15,22908],{"className":22909,"style":940},[939],[15,22911,22913],{"className":22912},[944,945,946,947],[15,22914,22916],{"className":22915},[67,947],[15,22917,22919,22922],{"className":22918},[67,947],[15,22920,9452],{"className":22921,"style":2566},[67,68,947],[15,22923,22925],{"className":22924},[918],[15,22926,22928,22948],{"className":22927},[922,923],[15,22929,22931,22945],{"className":22930},[927],[15,22932,22934],{"className":22933,"style":18377},[931],[15,22935,22936,22939],{"style":18380},[15,22937],{"className":22938,"style":18384},[939],[15,22940,22942],{"className":22941},[944,18388,15064,947],[15,22943,539],{"className":22944},[67,68,947],[15,22946,955],{"className":22947},[954],[15,22949,22951],{"className":22950},[927],[15,22952,22954],{"className":22953,"style":18401},[931],[15,22955],{},[15,22957,955],{"className":22958},[954],[15,22960,22962],{"className":22961},[927],[15,22963,22965],{"className":22964,"style":18413},[931],[15,22966],{},[15,22968,102],{"className":22969},[132],[15,22971,13753],{"className":22972},[67,68],[15,22974,111],{"className":22975},[148],[1314,22977,22979,23338],{"title":22978},"算法 3.1（反事实查询的三步算法）",[11,22980,22981,22982,23033,23034,23185,23186,23337],{},"给定观测证据 ",[15,22983,22985,23003],{"className":22984,"translate":19},[18],[15,22986,22988],{"className":22987},[23],[25,22989,22990],{"xmlns":27},[29,22991,22992,23000],{},[32,22993,22994,22996,22998],{},[35,22995,1346],{},[39,22997,602],{},[35,22999,13743],{},[47,23001,23002],{"encoding":49},"E=e",[15,23004,23006,23024],{"className":23005,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,23007,23009,23012,23015,23018,23021],{"className":23008},[58],[15,23010],{"className":23011,"style":299},[62],[15,23013,1346],{"className":23014,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,23016],{"className":23017,"style":199},[77],[15,23019,602],{"className":23020},[203],[15,23022],{"className":23023,"style":199},[77],[15,23025,23027,23030],{"className":23026},[58],[15,23028],{"className":23029,"style":635},[62],[15,23031,13743],{"className":23032},[67,68],"（例如 ",[15,23035,23037,23070],{"className":23036,"translate":19},[18],[15,23038,23040],{"className":23039},[23],[25,23041,23042],{"xmlns":27},[29,23043,23044,23068],{},[32,23045,23046,23048,23050,23056,23058,23060,23062],{},[35,23047,37],{},[39,23049,602],{},[872,23051,23052,23054],{},[35,23053,539],{},[39,23055,880],{"mathvariant":878,"lspace":879,"rspace":879},[39,23057,42],{"separator":41},[35,23059,45],{},[39,23061,602],{},[872,23063,23064,23066],{},[35,23065,534],{},[39,23067,880],{"mathvariant":878,"lspace":879,"rspace":879},[47,23069,1093],{"encoding":49},[15,23071,23073,23091,23147],{"className":23072,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,23074,23076,23079,23082,23085,23088],{"className":23075},[58],[15,23077],{"className":23078,"style":299},[62],[15,23080,37],{"className":23081,"style":69},[67,68],[15,23083],{"className":23084,"style":199},[77],[15,23086,602],{"className":23087},[203],[15,23089],{"className":23090,"style":199},[77],[15,23092,23094,23097,23129,23132,23135,23138,23141,23144],{"className":23093},[58],[15,23095],{"className":23096,"style":1121},[62],[15,23098,23100,23103],{"className":23099},[67],[15,23101,539],{"className":23102},[67,68],[15,23104,23106],{"className":23105},[918],[15,23107,23109],{"className":23108},[922],[15,23110,23112],{"className":23111},[927],[15,23113,23115],{"className":23114,"style":999},[931],[15,23116,23117,23120],{"style":1002},[15,23118],{"className":23119,"style":940},[939],[15,23121,23123],{"className":23122},[944,945,946,947],[15,23124,23126],{"className":23125},[67,947],[15,23127,880],{"className":23128},[67,947],[15,23130,42],{"className":23131},[73],[15,23133],{"className":23134,"style":78},[77],[15,23136,45],{"className":23137,"style":82},[67,68],[15,23139],{"className":23140,"style":199},[77],[15,23142,602],{"className":23143},[203],[15,23145],{"className":23146,"style":199},[77],[15,23148,23150,23153],{"className":23149},[58],[15,23151],{"className":23152,"style":1121},[62],[15,23154,23156,23159],{"className":23155},[67],[15,23157,534],{"className":23158,"style":563},[67,68],[15,23160,23162],{"className":23161},[918],[15,23163,23165],{"className":23164},[922],[15,23166,23168],{"className":23167},[927],[15,23169,23171],{"className":23170,"style":999},[931],[15,23172,23173,23176],{"style":1002},[15,23174],{"className":23175,"style":940},[939],[15,23177,23179],{"className":23178},[944,945,946,947],[15,23180,23182],{"className":23181},[67,947],[15,23183,880],{"className":23184},[67,947],"），欲计算反事实量 ",[15,23187,23189,23225],{"className":23188,"translate":19},[18],[15,23190,23192],{"className":23191},[23],[25,23193,23194],{"xmlns":27},[29,23195,23196,23222],{},[32,23197,23198,23200,23202,23208,23210,23212,23214,23216,23218,23220],{},[35,23199,98],{},[39,23201,102],{"stretchy":101},[863,23203,23204,23206],{},[35,23205,45],{},[35,23207,539],{},[39,23209,602],{},[35,23211,534],{},[39,23213,170],{},[35,23215,1346],{},[39,23217,602],{},[35,23219,13743],{},[39,23221,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,23223,23224],{"encoding":49},"P(Y_x = y \\mid E=e)",[15,23226,23228,23289,23307,23325],{"className":23227,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,23229,23231,23234,23237,23240,23280,23283,23286],{"className":23230},[58],[15,23232],{"className":23233,"style":124},[62],[15,23235,98],{"className":23236,"style":128},[67,68],[15,23238,102],{"className":23239},[132],[15,23241,23243,23246],{"className":23242},[67],[15,23244,45],{"className":23245,"style":82},[67,68],[15,23247,23249],{"className":23248},[918],[15,23250,23252,23272],{"className":23251},[922,923],[15,23253,23255,23269],{"className":23254},[927],[15,23256,23258],{"className":23257,"style":932},[931],[15,23259,23260,23263],{"style":1497},[15,23261],{"className":23262,"style":940},[939],[15,23264,23266],{"className":23265},[944,945,946,947],[15,23267,539],{"className":23268},[67,68,947],[15,23270,955],{"className":23271},[954],[15,23273,23275],{"className":23274},[927],[15,23276,23278],{"className":23277,"style":962},[931],[15,23279],{},[15,23281],{"className":23282,"style":199},[77],[15,23284,602],{"className":23285},[203],[15,23287],{"className":23288,"style":199},[77],[15,23290,23292,23295,23298,23301,23304],{"className":23291},[58],[15,23293],{"className":23294,"style":124},[62],[15,23296,534],{"className":23297,"style":563},[67,68],[15,23299],{"className":23300,"style":199},[77],[15,23302,170],{"className":23303},[203],[15,23305],{"className":23306,"style":199},[77],[15,23308,23310,23313,23316,23319,23322],{"className":23309},[58],[15,23311],{"className":23312,"style":299},[62],[15,23314,1346],{"className":23315,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,23317],{"className":23318,"style":199},[77],[15,23320,602],{"className":23321},[203],[15,23323],{"className":23324,"style":199},[77],[15,23326,23328,23331,23334],{"className":23327},[58],[15,23329],{"className":23330,"style":124},[62],[15,23332,13743],{"className":23333},[67,68],[15,23335,111],{"className":23336},[148],"，分三步进行：",[7909,23339,23340,23486,23633],{},[510,23341,23342,23345,23346,23374,23375,23418,23419,23485],{},[305,23343,23344],{},"溯因（Abduction）","：利用观测证据 ",[15,23347,23349,23362],{"className":23348,"translate":19},[18],[15,23350,23352],{"className":23351},[23],[25,23353,23354],{"xmlns":27},[29,23355,23356,23360],{},[32,23357,23358],{},[35,23359,13743],{},[47,23361,13743],{"encoding":49},[15,23363,23365],{"className":23364,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,23366,23368,23371],{"className":23367},[58],[15,23369],{"className":23370,"style":635},[62],[15,23372,13743],{"className":23373},[67,68],"，将外生变量的先验分布 ",[15,23376,23378,23397],{"className":23377,"translate":19},[18],[15,23379,23381],{"className":23380},[23],[25,23382,23383],{"xmlns":27},[29,23384,23385,23395],{},[32,23386,23387,23389,23391,23393],{},[35,23388,98],{},[39,23390,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,23392,2454],{},[39,23394,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,23396,10989],{"encoding":49},[15,23398,23400],{"className":23399,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,23401,23403,23406,23409,23412,23415],{"className":23402},[58],[15,23404],{"className":23405,"style":124},[62],[15,23407,98],{"className":23408,"style":128},[67,68],[15,23410,102],{"className":23411},[132],[15,23413,2454],{"className":23414,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,23416,111],{"className":23417},[148]," 更新为后验分布 ",[15,23420,23422,23446],{"className":23421,"translate":19},[18],[15,23423,23425],{"className":23424},[23],[25,23426,23427],{"xmlns":27},[29,23428,23429,23443],{},[32,23430,23431,23433,23435,23437,23439,23441],{},[35,23432,98],{},[39,23434,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,23436,2454],{},[39,23438,170],{},[35,23440,13743],{},[39,23442,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,23444,23445],{"encoding":49},"P(U \\mid e)",[15,23447,23449,23473],{"className":23448,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,23450,23452,23455,23458,23461,23464,23467,23470],{"className":23451},[58],[15,23453],{"className":23454,"style":124},[62],[15,23456,98],{"className":23457,"style":128},[67,68],[15,23459,102],{"className":23460},[132],[15,23462,2454],{"className":23463,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,23465],{"className":23466,"style":199},[77],[15,23468,170],{"className":23469},[203],[15,23471],{"className":23472,"style":199},[77],[15,23474,23476,23479,23482],{"className":23475},[58],[15,23477],{"className":23478,"style":124},[62],[15,23480,13743],{"className":23481},[67,68],[15,23483,111],{"className":23484},[148],"，即根据「结果倒推该个体所处的具体随机情境」；",[510,23487,23488,23491,23492,23562,23563,23632],{},[305,23489,23490],{},"行动（Action）","：对结构方程集合施加 ",[15,23493,23495,23520],{"className":23494,"translate":19},[18],[15,23496,23498],{"className":23497},[23],[25,23499,23500],{"xmlns":27},[29,23501,23502,23518],{},[32,23503,23504,23506,23508,23510,23512,23514,23516],{},[35,23505,696],{},[35,23507,699],{},[39,23509,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,23511,37],{},[39,23513,602],{},[35,23515,539],{},[39,23517,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,23519,8065],{"encoding":49},[15,23521,23523,23550],{"className":23522,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,23524,23526,23529,23532,23535,23538,23541,23544,23547],{"className":23525},[58],[15,23527],{"className":23528,"style":124},[62],[15,23530,696],{"className":23531},[67,68],[15,23533,699],{"className":23534},[67,68],[15,23536,102],{"className":23537},[132],[15,23539,37],{"className":23540,"style":69},[67,68],[15,23542],{"className":23543,"style":199},[77],[15,23545,602],{"className":23546},[203],[15,23548],{"className":23549,"style":199},[77],[15,23551,23553,23556,23559],{"className":23552},[58],[15,23554],{"className":23555,"style":124},[62],[15,23557,539],{"className":23558},[67,68],[15,23560,111],{"className":23561},[148],"，得到子模型 ",[15,23564,23566,23583],{"className":23565,"translate":19},[18],[15,23567,23569],{"className":23568},[23],[25,23570,23571],{"xmlns":27},[29,23572,23573,23581],{},[32,23574,23575],{},[863,23576,23577,23579],{},[35,23578,9452],{},[35,23580,539],{},[47,23582,18160],{"encoding":49},[15,23584,23586],{"className":23585,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,23587,23589,23592],{"className":23588},[58],[15,23590],{"className":23591,"style":1863},[62],[15,23593,23595,23598],{"className":23594},[67],[15,23596,9452],{"className":23597,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,23599,23601],{"className":23600},[918],[15,23602,23604,23624],{"className":23603},[922,923],[15,23605,23607,23621],{"className":23606},[927],[15,23608,23610],{"className":23609,"style":932},[931],[15,23611,23612,23615],{"style":2581},[15,23613],{"className":23614,"style":940},[939],[15,23616,23618],{"className":23617},[944,945,946,947],[15,23619,539],{"className":23620},[67,68,947],[15,23622,955],{"className":23623},[954],[15,23625,23627],{"className":23626},[927],[15,23628,23630],{"className":23629,"style":962},[931],[15,23631],{},"（同定义 3.2）；",[510,23634,23635,23638,23639,23708,23709,23775,23776,23804,23805],{},[305,23636,23637],{},"预测（Prediction）","：在子模型 ",[15,23640,23642,23659],{"className":23641,"translate":19},[18],[15,23643,23645],{"className":23644},[23],[25,23646,23647],{"xmlns":27},[29,23648,23649,23657],{},[32,23650,23651],{},[863,23652,23653,23655],{},[35,23654,9452],{},[35,23656,539],{},[47,23658,18160],{"encoding":49},[15,23660,23662],{"className":23661,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,23663,23665,23668],{"className":23664},[58],[15,23666],{"className":23667,"style":1863},[62],[15,23669,23671,23674],{"className":23670},[67],[15,23672,9452],{"className":23673,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,23675,23677],{"className":23676},[918],[15,23678,23680,23700],{"className":23679},[922,923],[15,23681,23683,23697],{"className":23682},[927],[15,23684,23686],{"className":23685,"style":932},[931],[15,23687,23688,23691],{"style":2581},[15,23689],{"className":23690,"style":940},[939],[15,23692,23694],{"className":23693},[944,945,946,947],[15,23695,539],{"className":23696},[67,68,947],[15,23698,955],{"className":23699},[954],[15,23701,23703],{"className":23702},[927],[15,23704,23706],{"className":23705,"style":962},[931],[15,23707],{}," 中，用第一步得到的后验分布 ",[15,23710,23712,23736],{"className":23711,"translate":19},[18],[15,23713,23715],{"className":23714},[23],[25,23716,23717],{"xmlns":27},[29,23718,23719,23733],{},[32,23720,23721,23723,23725,23727,23729,23731],{},[35,23722,98],{},[39,23724,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,23726,2454],{},[39,23728,170],{},[35,23730,13743],{},[39,23732,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,23734,23735],{"encoding":49},"P(U\\mid e)",[15,23737,23739,23763],{"className":23738,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,23740,23742,23745,23748,23751,23754,23757,23760],{"className":23741},[58],[15,23743],{"className":23744,"style":124},[62],[15,23746,98],{"className":23747,"style":128},[67,68],[15,23749,102],{"className":23750},[132],[15,23752,2454],{"className":23753,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,23755],{"className":23756,"style":199},[77],[15,23758,170],{"className":23759},[203],[15,23761],{"className":23762,"style":199},[77],[15,23764,23766,23769,23772],{"className":23765},[58],[15,23767],{"className":23768,"style":124},[62],[15,23770,13743],{"className":23771},[67,68],[15,23773,111],{"className":23774},[148]," 计算 ",[15,23777,23779,23792],{"className":23778,"translate":19},[18],[15,23780,23782],{"className":23781},[23],[25,23783,23784],{"xmlns":27},[29,23785,23786,23790],{},[32,23787,23788],{},[35,23789,45],{},[47,23791,45],{"encoding":49},[15,23793,23795],{"className":23794,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,23796,23798,23801],{"className":23797},[58],[15,23799],{"className":23800,"style":299},[62],[15,23802,45],{"className":23803,"style":82},[67,68]," 的分布，即为所求反事实分布：\n",[15,23806,23808,23888],{"className":23807,"translate":19},[18],[15,23809,23811],{"className":23810},[23],[25,23812,23813],{"xmlns":27},[29,23814,23815,23885],{},[32,23816,23817,23819,23821,23827,23829,23831,23833,23835,23837,23839,23845,23847,23849,23859,23861,23863,23865,23867,23869,23871,23873,23875,23877,23879,23881,23883],{},[35,23818,98],{},[39,23820,102],{"stretchy":101},[863,23822,23823,23825],{},[35,23824,45],{},[35,23826,539],{},[39,23828,602],{},[35,23830,534],{},[39,23832,170],{},[35,23834,13743],{},[39,23836,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,23838,602],{},[863,23840,23841,23843],{},[39,23842,20386],{},[35,23844,13753],{},[35,23846,98],{},[39,23848,102],{"stretchy":101},[863,23850,23851,23853],{},[35,23852,45],{},[863,23854,23855,23857],{},[35,23856,9452],{},[35,23858,539],{},[39,23860,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,23862,13753],{},[39,23864,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,23866,602],{},[35,23868,534],{},[39,23870,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,23872,13805],{},[35,23874,98],{},[39,23876,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,23878,13753],{},[39,23880,170],{},[35,23882,13743],{},[39,23884,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,23886,23887],{"encoding":49},"P(Y_x = y \\mid e) = \\sum_u P(Y_{M_x}(u) = y) \\cdot P(u \\mid e)",[15,23889,23891,23952,23970,23991,24144,24165,24189],{"className":23890,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,23892,23894,23897,23900,23903,23943,23946,23949],{"className":23893},[58],[15,23895],{"className":23896,"style":124},[62],[15,23898,98],{"className":23899,"style":128},[67,68],[15,23901,102],{"className":23902},[132],[15,23904,23906,23909],{"className":23905},[67],[15,23907,45],{"className":23908,"style":82},[67,68],[15,23910,23912],{"className":23911},[918],[15,23913,23915,23935],{"className":23914},[922,923],[15,23916,23918,23932],{"className":23917},[927],[15,23919,23921],{"className":23920,"style":932},[931],[15,23922,23923,23926],{"style":1497},[15,23924],{"className":23925,"style":940},[939],[15,23927,23929],{"className":23928},[944,945,946,947],[15,23930,539],{"className":23931},[67,68,947],[15,23933,955],{"className":23934},[954],[15,23936,23938],{"className":23937},[927],[15,23939,23941],{"className":23940,"style":962},[931],[15,23942],{},[15,23944],{"className":23945,"style":199},[77],[15,23947,602],{"className":23948},[203],[15,23950],{"className":23951,"style":199},[77],[15,23953,23955,23958,23961,23964,23967],{"className":23954},[58],[15,23956],{"className":23957,"style":124},[62],[15,23959,534],{"className":23960,"style":563},[67,68],[15,23962],{"className":23963,"style":199},[77],[15,23965,170],{"className":23966},[203],[15,23968],{"className":23969,"style":199},[77],[15,23971,23973,23976,23979,23982,23985,23988],{"className":23972},[58],[15,23974],{"className":23975,"style":124},[62],[15,23977,13743],{"className":23978},[67,68],[15,23980,111],{"className":23981},[148],[15,23983],{"className":23984,"style":199},[77],[15,23986,602],{"className":23987},[203],[15,23989],{"className":23990,"style":199},[77],[15,23992,23994,23997,24037,24040,24043,24046,24126,24129,24132,24135,24138,24141],{"className":23993},[58],[15,23995],{"className":23996,"style":20564},[62],[15,23998,24000,24003],{"className":23999},[12747],[15,24001,20386],{"className":24002,"style":12753},[12747,12751,12752],[15,24004,24006],{"className":24005},[918],[15,24007,24009,24029],{"className":24008},[922,923],[15,24010,24012,24026],{"className":24011},[927],[15,24013,24015],{"className":24014,"style":20583},[931],[15,24016,24017,24020],{"style":12769},[15,24018],{"className":24019,"style":940},[939],[15,24021,24023],{"className":24022},[944,945,946,947],[15,24024,13753],{"className":24025},[67,68,947],[15,24027,955],{"className":24028},[954],[15,24030,24032],{"className":24031},[927],[15,24033,24035],{"className":24034,"style":12809},[931],[15,24036],{},[15,24038],{"className":24039,"style":78},[77],[15,24041,98],{"className":24042,"style":128},[67,68],[15,24044,102],{"className":24045},[132],[15,24047,24049,24052],{"className":24048},[67],[15,24050,45],{"className":24051,"style":82},[67,68],[15,24053,24055],{"className":24054},[918],[15,24056,24058,24118],{"className":24057},[922,923],[15,24059,24061,24115],{"className":24060},[927],[15,24062,24064],{"className":24063,"style":7346},[931],[15,24065,24066,24069],{"style":1497},[15,24067],{"className":24068,"style":940},[939],[15,24070,24072],{"className":24071},[944,945,946,947],[15,24073,24075],{"className":24074},[67,947],[15,24076,24078,24081],{"className":24077},[67,947],[15,24079,9452],{"className":24080,"style":2566},[67,68,947],[15,24082,24084],{"className":24083},[918],[15,24085,24087,24107],{"className":24086},[922,923],[15,24088,24090,24104],{"className":24089},[927],[15,24091,24093],{"className":24092,"style":18377},[931],[15,24094,24095,24098],{"style":18380},[15,24096],{"className":24097,"style":18384},[939],[15,24099,24101],{"className":24100},[944,18388,15064,947],[15,24102,539],{"className":24103},[67,68,947],[15,24105,955],{"className":24106},[954],[15,24108,24110],{"className":24109},[927],[15,24111,24113],{"className":24112,"style":18401},[931],[15,24114],{},[15,24116,955],{"className":24117},[954],[15,24119,24121],{"className":24120},[927],[15,24122,24124],{"className":24123,"style":18413},[931],[15,24125],{},[15,24127,102],{"className":24128},[132],[15,24130,13753],{"className":24131},[67,68],[15,24133,111],{"className":24134},[148],[15,24136],{"className":24137,"style":199},[77],[15,24139,602],{"className":24140},[203],[15,24142],{"className":24143,"style":199},[77],[15,24145,24147,24150,24153,24156,24159,24162],{"className":24146},[58],[15,24148],{"className":24149,"style":124},[62],[15,24151,534],{"className":24152,"style":563},[67,68],[15,24154,111],{"className":24155},[148],[15,24157],{"className":24158,"style":82},[77],[15,24160,13805],{"className":24161},[1646],[15,24163],{"className":24164,"style":82},[77],[15,24166,24168,24171,24174,24177,24180,24183,24186],{"className":24167},[58],[15,24169],{"className":24170,"style":124},[62],[15,24172,98],{"className":24173,"style":128},[67,68],[15,24175,102],{"className":24176},[132],[15,24178,13753],{"className":24179},[67,68],[15,24181],{"className":24182,"style":199},[77],[15,24184,170],{"className":24185},[203],[15,24187],{"className":24188,"style":199},[77],[15,24190,24192,24195,24198],{"className":24191},[58],[15,24193],{"className":24194,"style":124},[62],[15,24196,13743],{"className":24197},[67,68],[15,24199,111],{"className":24200},[148],[1314,24202,24204],{"title":24203},"例 3.3（反事实的具体计算）",[11,24205,24206,24207,24258,24259,24310,24311,24362,24363,24549,24550,24553,24554,24681,24682,24685,24686,24714,24715,24768,24769,24797,24798,24826,24827,25013,25014,25017,25018,25145],{},"设某病人服用了某药（",[15,24208,24210,24228],{"className":24209,"translate":19},[18],[15,24211,24213],{"className":24212},[23],[25,24214,24215],{"xmlns":27},[29,24216,24217,24225],{},[32,24218,24219,24221,24223],{},[35,24220,37],{},[39,24222,602],{},[1423,24224,1425],{},[47,24226,24227],{"encoding":49},"X=1",[15,24229,24231,24249],{"className":24230,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,24232,24234,24237,24240,24243,24246],{"className":24233},[58],[15,24235],{"className":24236,"style":299},[62],[15,24238,37],{"className":24239,"style":69},[67,68],[15,24241],{"className":24242,"style":199},[77],[15,24244,602],{"className":24245},[203],[15,24247],{"className":24248,"style":199},[77],[15,24250,24252,24255],{"className":24251},[58],[15,24253],{"className":24254,"style":3145},[62],[15,24256,1425],{"className":24257},[67],"）后康复（",[15,24260,24262,24280],{"className":24261,"translate":19},[18],[15,24263,24265],{"className":24264},[23],[25,24266,24267],{"xmlns":27},[29,24268,24269,24277],{},[32,24270,24271,24273,24275],{},[35,24272,45],{},[39,24274,602],{},[1423,24276,1425],{},[47,24278,24279],{"encoding":49},"Y=1",[15,24281,24283,24301],{"className":24282,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,24284,24286,24289,24292,24295,24298],{"className":24285},[58],[15,24287],{"className":24288,"style":299},[62],[15,24290,45],{"className":24291,"style":82},[67,68],[15,24293],{"className":24294,"style":199},[77],[15,24296,602],{"className":24297},[203],[15,24299],{"className":24300,"style":199},[77],[15,24302,24304,24307],{"className":24303},[58],[15,24305],{"className":24306,"style":3145},[62],[15,24308,1425],{"className":24309},[67],"）。欲问：「若该病人当初未服药（",[15,24312,24314,24332],{"className":24313,"translate":19},[18],[15,24315,24317],{"className":24316},[23],[25,24318,24319],{"xmlns":27},[29,24320,24321,24329],{},[32,24322,24323,24325,24327],{},[35,24324,37],{},[39,24326,602],{},[1423,24328,2457],{},[47,24330,24331],{"encoding":49},"X=0",[15,24333,24335,24353],{"className":24334,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,24336,24338,24341,24344,24347,24350],{"className":24337},[58],[15,24339],{"className":24340,"style":299},[62],[15,24342,37],{"className":24343,"style":69},[67,68],[15,24345],{"className":24346,"style":199},[77],[15,24348,602],{"className":24349},[203],[15,24351],{"className":24352,"style":199},[77],[15,24354,24356,24359],{"className":24355},[58],[15,24357],{"className":24358,"style":3145},[62],[15,24360,2457],{"className":24361},[67],"），是否仍会康复？」——即求 ",[15,24364,24366,24410],{"className":24365,"translate":19},[18],[15,24367,24369],{"className":24368},[23],[25,24370,24371],{"xmlns":27},[29,24372,24373,24407],{},[32,24374,24375,24377,24379,24385,24387,24389,24391,24393,24395,24397,24399,24401,24403,24405],{},[35,24376,98],{},[39,24378,102],{"stretchy":101},[863,24380,24381,24383],{},[35,24382,45],{},[1423,24384,2457],{},[39,24386,602],{},[1423,24388,1425],{},[39,24390,170],{},[35,24392,37],{},[39,24394,602],{},[1423,24396,1425],{},[39,24398,42],{"separator":41},[35,24400,45],{},[39,24402,602],{},[1423,24404,1425],{},[39,24406,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,24408,24409],{"encoding":49},"P(Y_0 = 1 \\mid X=1, Y=1)",[15,24411,24413,24474,24492,24510,24537],{"className":24412,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,24414,24416,24419,24422,24425,24465,24468,24471],{"className":24415},[58],[15,24417],{"className":24418,"style":124},[62],[15,24420,98],{"className":24421,"style":128},[67,68],[15,24423,102],{"className":24424},[132],[15,24426,24428,24431],{"className":24427},[67],[15,24429,45],{"className":24430,"style":82},[67,68],[15,24432,24434],{"className":24433},[918],[15,24435,24437,24457],{"className":24436},[922,923],[15,24438,24440,24454],{"className":24439},[927],[15,24441,24443],{"className":24442,"style":1494},[931],[15,24444,24445,24448],{"style":1497},[15,24446],{"className":24447,"style":940},[939],[15,24449,24451],{"className":24450},[944,945,946,947],[15,24452,2457],{"className":24453},[67,947],[15,24455,955],{"className":24456},[954],[15,24458,24460],{"className":24459},[927],[15,24461,24463],{"className":24462,"style":962},[931],[15,24464],{},[15,24466],{"className":24467,"style":199},[77],[15,24469,602],{"className":24470},[203],[15,24472],{"className":24473,"style":199},[77],[15,24475,24477,24480,24483,24486,24489],{"className":24476},[58],[15,24478],{"className":24479,"style":124},[62],[15,24481,1425],{"className":24482},[67],[15,24484],{"className":24485,"style":199},[77],[15,24487,170],{"className":24488},[203],[15,24490],{"className":24491,"style":199},[77],[15,24493,24495,24498,24501,24504,24507],{"className":24494},[58],[15,24496],{"className":24497,"style":299},[62],[15,24499,37],{"className":24500,"style":69},[67,68],[15,24502],{"className":24503,"style":199},[77],[15,24505,602],{"className":24506},[203],[15,24508],{"className":24509,"style":199},[77],[15,24511,24513,24516,24519,24522,24525,24528,24531,24534],{"className":24512},[58],[15,24514],{"className":24515,"style":63},[62],[15,24517,1425],{"className":24518},[67],[15,24520,42],{"className":24521},[73],[15,24523],{"className":24524,"style":78},[77],[15,24526,45],{"className":24527,"style":82},[67,68],[15,24529],{"className":24530,"style":199},[77],[15,24532,602],{"className":24533},[203],[15,24535],{"className":24536,"style":199},[77],[15,24538,24540,24543,24546],{"className":24539},[58],[15,24541],{"className":24542,"style":124},[62],[15,24544,1425],{"className":24545},[67],[15,24547,111],{"className":24548},[148],"。这一问题",[305,24551,24552],{},"不能","简单地用干预分布 ",[15,24555,24557,24597],{"className":24556,"translate":19},[18],[15,24558,24560],{"className":24559},[23],[25,24561,24562],{"xmlns":27},[29,24563,24564,24594],{},[32,24565,24566,24568,24570,24572,24574,24576,24578,24580,24582,24584,24586,24588,24590,24592],{},[35,24567,98],{},[39,24569,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,24571,45],{},[39,24573,602],{},[1423,24575,1425],{},[39,24577,170],{},[35,24579,696],{},[35,24581,699],{},[39,24583,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,24585,37],{},[39,24587,602],{},[1423,24589,2457],{},[39,24591,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,24593,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,24595,24596],{"encoding":49},"P(Y=1 \\mid do(X=0))",[15,24598,24600,24624,24642,24669],{"className":24599,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,24601,24603,24606,24609,24612,24615,24618,24621],{"className":24602},[58],[15,24604],{"className":24605,"style":124},[62],[15,24607,98],{"className":24608,"style":128},[67,68],[15,24610,102],{"className":24611},[132],[15,24613,45],{"className":24614,"style":82},[67,68],[15,24616],{"className":24617,"style":199},[77],[15,24619,602],{"className":24620},[203],[15,24622],{"className":24623,"style":199},[77],[15,24625,24627,24630,24633,24636,24639],{"className":24626},[58],[15,24628],{"className":24629,"style":124},[62],[15,24631,1425],{"className":24632},[67],[15,24634],{"className":24635,"style":199},[77],[15,24637,170],{"className":24638},[203],[15,24640],{"className":24641,"style":199},[77],[15,24643,24645,24648,24651,24654,24657,24660,24663,24666],{"className":24644},[58],[15,24646],{"className":24647,"style":124},[62],[15,24649,696],{"className":24650},[67,68],[15,24652,699],{"className":24653},[67,68],[15,24655,102],{"className":24656},[132],[15,24658,37],{"className":24659,"style":69},[67,68],[15,24661],{"className":24662,"style":199},[77],[15,24664,602],{"className":24665},[203],[15,24667],{"className":24668,"style":199},[77],[15,24670,24672,24675,24678],{"className":24671},[58],[15,24673],{"className":24674,"style":124},[62],[15,24676,2457],{"className":24677},[67],[15,24679,759],{"className":24680},[148],"（总体中未服药者的康复率）来回答，因为后者描述的是「随机抽取一个未服药个体」的康复概率，而反事实问题问的是",[305,24683,24684],{},"这同一个","已知服药后康复的病人。按照三步算法：首先根据「该病人服药后康复」这一证据，对可能导致其康复的外生因素（如自身免疫力 ",[15,24687,24689,24702],{"className":24688,"translate":19},[18],[15,24690,24692],{"className":24691},[23],[25,24693,24694],{"xmlns":27},[29,24695,24696,24700],{},[32,24697,24698],{},[35,24699,2454],{},[47,24701,2454],{"encoding":49},[15,24703,24705],{"className":24704,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,24706,24708,24711],{"className":24707},[58],[15,24709],{"className":24710,"style":299},[62],[15,24712,2454],{"className":24713,"style":2566},[67,68],"）的分布进行后验更新——服药后康复的人群中，「体质本身较好、即使不服药也可能康复」的后验概率会高于总体先验；随后在 ",[15,24716,24718,24738],{"className":24717,"translate":19},[18],[15,24719,24721],{"className":24720},[23],[25,24722,24723],{"xmlns":27},[29,24724,24725,24735],{},[32,24726,24727,24729,24731,24733],{},[35,24728,37],{},[39,24730,8850],{},[39,24732,602],{},[1423,24734,2457],{},[47,24736,24737],{"encoding":49},"X:=0",[15,24739,24741,24759],{"className":24740,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,24742,24744,24747,24750,24753,24756],{"className":24743},[58],[15,24745],{"className":24746,"style":299},[62],[15,24748,37],{"className":24749,"style":69},[67,68],[15,24751],{"className":24752,"style":199},[77],[15,24754,8886],{"className":24755},[203],[15,24757],{"className":24758,"style":199},[77],[15,24760,24762,24765],{"className":24761},[58],[15,24763],{"className":24764,"style":3145},[62],[15,24766,2457],{"className":24767},[67]," 的子模型中，用这一更新后的 ",[15,24770,24772,24785],{"className":24771,"translate":19},[18],[15,24773,24775],{"className":24774},[23],[25,24776,24777],{"xmlns":27},[29,24778,24779,24783],{},[32,24780,24781],{},[35,24782,2454],{},[47,24784,2454],{"encoding":49},[15,24786,24788],{"className":24787,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,24789,24791,24794],{"className":24790},[58],[15,24792],{"className":24793,"style":299},[62],[15,24795,2454],{"className":24796,"style":2566},[67,68]," 分布重新计算 ",[15,24799,24801,24814],{"className":24800,"translate":19},[18],[15,24802,24804],{"className":24803},[23],[25,24805,24806],{"xmlns":27},[29,24807,24808,24812],{},[32,24809,24810],{},[35,24811,45],{},[47,24813,45],{"encoding":49},[15,24815,24817],{"className":24816,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,24818,24820,24823],{"className":24819},[58],[15,24821],{"className":24822,"style":299},[62],[15,24824,45],{"className":24825,"style":82},[67,68],"。这解释了为什么反事实概率 ",[15,24828,24830,24874],{"className":24829,"translate":19},[18],[15,24831,24833],{"className":24832},[23],[25,24834,24835],{"xmlns":27},[29,24836,24837,24871],{},[32,24838,24839,24841,24843,24849,24851,24853,24855,24857,24859,24861,24863,24865,24867,24869],{},[35,24840,98],{},[39,24842,102],{"stretchy":101},[863,24844,24845,24847],{},[35,24846,45],{},[1423,24848,2457],{},[39,24850,602],{},[1423,24852,1425],{},[39,24854,170],{},[35,24856,37],{},[39,24858,602],{},[1423,24860,1425],{},[39,24862,42],{"separator":41},[35,24864,45],{},[39,24866,602],{},[1423,24868,1425],{},[39,24870,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,24872,24873],{"encoding":49},"P(Y_0=1\\mid X=1,Y=1)",[15,24875,24877,24938,24956,24974,25001],{"className":24876,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,24878,24880,24883,24886,24889,24929,24932,24935],{"className":24879},[58],[15,24881],{"className":24882,"style":124},[62],[15,24884,98],{"className":24885,"style":128},[67,68],[15,24887,102],{"className":24888},[132],[15,24890,24892,24895],{"className":24891},[67],[15,24893,45],{"className":24894,"style":82},[67,68],[15,24896,24898],{"className":24897},[918],[15,24899,24901,24921],{"className":24900},[922,923],[15,24902,24904,24918],{"className":24903},[927],[15,24905,24907],{"className":24906,"style":1494},[931],[15,24908,24909,24912],{"style":1497},[15,24910],{"className":24911,"style":940},[939],[15,24913,24915],{"className":24914},[944,945,946,947],[15,24916,2457],{"className":24917},[67,947],[15,24919,955],{"className":24920},[954],[15,24922,24924],{"className":24923},[927],[15,24925,24927],{"className":24926,"style":962},[931],[15,24928],{},[15,24930],{"className":24931,"style":199},[77],[15,24933,602],{"className":24934},[203],[15,24936],{"className":24937,"style":199},[77],[15,24939,24941,24944,24947,24950,24953],{"className":24940},[58],[15,24942],{"className":24943,"style":124},[62],[15,24945,1425],{"className":24946},[67],[15,24948],{"className":24949,"style":199},[77],[15,24951,170],{"className":24952},[203],[15,24954],{"className":24955,"style":199},[77],[15,24957,24959,24962,24965,24968,24971],{"className":24958},[58],[15,24960],{"className":24961,"style":299},[62],[15,24963,37],{"className":24964,"style":69},[67,68],[15,24966],{"className":24967,"style":199},[77],[15,24969,602],{"className":24970},[203],[15,24972],{"className":24973,"style":199},[77],[15,24975,24977,24980,24983,24986,24989,24992,24995,24998],{"className":24976},[58],[15,24978],{"className":24979,"style":63},[62],[15,24981,1425],{"className":24982},[67],[15,24984,42],{"className":24985},[73],[15,24987],{"className":24988,"style":78},[77],[15,24990,45],{"className":24991,"style":82},[67,68],[15,24993],{"className":24994,"style":199},[77],[15,24996,602],{"className":24997},[203],[15,24999],{"className":25000,"style":199},[77],[15,25002,25004,25007,25010],{"className":25003},[58],[15,25005],{"className":25006,"style":124},[62],[15,25008,1425],{"className":25009},[67],[15,25011,111],{"className":25012},[148]," 一般会",[305,25015,25016],{},"高于","总体干预概率 ",[15,25019,25021,25061],{"className":25020,"translate":19},[18],[15,25022,25024],{"className":25023},[23],[25,25025,25026],{"xmlns":27},[29,25027,25028,25058],{},[32,25029,25030,25032,25034,25036,25038,25040,25042,25044,25046,25048,25050,25052,25054,25056],{},[35,25031,98],{},[39,25033,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,25035,45],{},[39,25037,602],{},[1423,25039,1425],{},[39,25041,170],{},[35,25043,696],{},[35,25045,699],{},[39,25047,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,25049,37],{},[39,25051,602],{},[1423,25053,2457],{},[39,25055,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,25057,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,25059,25060],{"encoding":49},"P(Y=1\\mid do(X=0))",[15,25062,25064,25088,25106,25133],{"className":25063,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,25065,25067,25070,25073,25076,25079,25082,25085],{"className":25066},[58],[15,25068],{"className":25069,"style":124},[62],[15,25071,98],{"className":25072,"style":128},[67,68],[15,25074,102],{"className":25075},[132],[15,25077,45],{"className":25078,"style":82},[67,68],[15,25080],{"className":25081,"style":199},[77],[15,25083,602],{"className":25084},[203],[15,25086],{"className":25087,"style":199},[77],[15,25089,25091,25094,25097,25100,25103],{"className":25090},[58],[15,25092],{"className":25093,"style":124},[62],[15,25095,1425],{"className":25096},[67],[15,25098],{"className":25099,"style":199},[77],[15,25101,170],{"className":25102},[203],[15,25104],{"className":25105,"style":199},[77],[15,25107,25109,25112,25115,25118,25121,25124,25127,25130],{"className":25108},[58],[15,25110],{"className":25111,"style":124},[62],[15,25113,696],{"className":25114},[67,68],[15,25116,699],{"className":25117},[67,68],[15,25119,102],{"className":25120},[132],[15,25122,37],{"className":25123,"style":69},[67,68],[15,25125],{"className":25126,"style":199},[77],[15,25128,602],{"className":25129},[203],[15,25131],{"className":25132,"style":199},[77],[15,25134,25136,25139,25142],{"className":25135},[58],[15,25137],{"className":25138,"style":124},[62],[15,25140,2457],{"className":25141},[67],[15,25143,759],{"className":25144},[148],"——因为前者的条件化过程已经通过溯因步骤「筛选」出了体质更好的子群体。这一细微但本质的差别，是反事实推理（第三层）无法被干预计算（第二层）替代的直接例证，也是「个体化处理效应（Individual Treatment Effect）」这一概念在医学与政策评估中难以精确估计、却又极具价值的理论根源。",[11,25147,25148,25151,25152,25155,25156,25184,25185,25228,25229,431,25257,25300],{},[305,25149,25150],{},"一个必须说清楚的边界：反事实的可识别性。"," 上述三步算法成立的前提是 SCM ",[305,25153,25154],{},"完全已知","——",[15,25157,25159,25172],{"className":25158,"translate":19},[18],[15,25160,25162],{"className":25161},[23],[25,25163,25164],{"xmlns":27},[29,25165,25166,25170],{},[32,25167,25168],{},[35,25169,9467],{},[47,25171,9467],{"encoding":49},[15,25173,25175],{"className":25174,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,25176,25178,25181],{"className":25177},[58],[15,25179],{"className":25180,"style":299},[62],[15,25182,9467],{"className":25183,"style":128},[67,68]," 中的函数形式与 ",[15,25186,25188,25207],{"className":25187,"translate":19},[18],[15,25189,25191],{"className":25190},[23],[25,25192,25193],{"xmlns":27},[29,25194,25195,25205],{},[32,25196,25197,25199,25201,25203],{},[35,25198,98],{},[39,25200,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,25202,2454],{},[39,25204,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,25206,10989],{"encoding":49},[15,25208,25210],{"className":25209,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,25211,25213,25216,25219,25222,25225],{"className":25212},[58],[15,25214],{"className":25215,"style":124},[62],[15,25217,98],{"className":25218,"style":128},[67,68],[15,25220,102],{"className":25221},[132],[15,25223,2454],{"className":25224,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,25226,111],{"className":25227},[148]," 的分布都已指定。而在现实中我们通常只有观测数据，",[15,25230,25232,25245],{"className":25231,"translate":19},[18],[15,25233,25235],{"className":25234},[23],[25,25236,25237],{"xmlns":27},[29,25238,25239,25243],{},[32,25240,25241],{},[35,25242,9467],{},[47,25244,9467],{"encoding":49},[15,25246,25248],{"className":25247,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,25249,25251,25254],{"className":25250},[58],[15,25252],{"className":25253,"style":299},[62],[15,25255,9467],{"className":25256,"style":128},[67,68],[15,25258,25260,25279],{"className":25259,"translate":19},[18],[15,25261,25263],{"className":25262},[23],[25,25264,25265],{"xmlns":27},[29,25266,25267,25277],{},[32,25268,25269,25271,25273,25275],{},[35,25270,98],{},[39,25272,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,25274,2454],{},[39,25276,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,25278,10989],{"encoding":49},[15,25280,25282],{"className":25281,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,25283,25285,25288,25291,25294,25297],{"className":25284},[58],[15,25286],{"className":25287,"style":124},[62],[15,25289,98],{"className":25290,"style":128},[67,68],[15,25292,102],{"className":25293},[132],[15,25295,2454],{"className":25296,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,25298,111],{"className":25299},[148]," 都是未知的。这一差别不是技术细节，而是第三层与第二层之间的一条硬边界：",[507,25302,25303,25393],{},[510,25304,25305,25306,25388,25389,25392],{},"第二层的量 ",[15,25307,25309,25340],{"className":25308,"translate":19},[18],[15,25310,25312],{"className":25311},[23],[25,25313,25314],{"xmlns":27},[29,25315,25316,25338],{},[32,25317,25318,25320,25322,25324,25326,25328,25330,25332,25334,25336],{},[35,25319,98],{},[39,25321,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,25323,534],{},[39,25325,170],{},[35,25327,696],{},[35,25329,699],{},[39,25331,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,25333,539],{},[39,25335,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,25337,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,25339,710],{"encoding":49},[15,25341,25343,25367],{"className":25342,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,25344,25346,25349,25352,25355,25358,25361,25364],{"className":25345},[58],[15,25347],{"className":25348,"style":124},[62],[15,25350,98],{"className":25351,"style":128},[67,68],[15,25353,102],{"className":25354},[132],[15,25356,534],{"className":25357,"style":563},[67,68],[15,25359],{"className":25360,"style":199},[77],[15,25362,170],{"className":25363},[203],[15,25365],{"className":25366,"style":199},[77],[15,25368,25370,25373,25376,25379,25382,25385],{"className":25369},[58],[15,25371],{"className":25372,"style":124},[62],[15,25374,696],{"className":25375},[67,68],[15,25377,699],{"className":25378},[67,68],[15,25380,102],{"className":25381},[132],[15,25383,539],{"className":25384},[67,68],[15,25386,759],{"className":25387},[148]," 在满足后门准则或前门准则（见 3.5 节）时，",[305,25390,25391],{},"可以","仅用观测分布表达出来，因而能够由数据估计；",[510,25394,25395,25396,25525,25526,25557,25558,25586,25587,25615,25616,2247],{},"第三层的量 ",[15,25397,25399,25431],{"className":25398,"translate":19},[18],[15,25400,25402],{"className":25401},[23],[25,25403,25404],{"xmlns":27},[29,25405,25406,25428],{},[32,25407,25408,25410,25412,25418,25420,25422,25424,25426],{},[35,25409,98],{},[39,25411,102],{"stretchy":101},[863,25413,25414,25416],{},[35,25415,45],{},[35,25417,539],{},[39,25419,602],{},[35,25421,534],{},[39,25423,170],{},[35,25425,13743],{},[39,25427,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,25429,25430],{"encoding":49},"P(Y_x = y \\mid e)",[15,25432,25434,25495,25513],{"className":25433,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,25435,25437,25440,25443,25446,25486,25489,25492],{"className":25436},[58],[15,25438],{"className":25439,"style":124},[62],[15,25441,98],{"className":25442,"style":128},[67,68],[15,25444,102],{"className":25445},[132],[15,25447,25449,25452],{"className":25448},[67],[15,25450,45],{"className":25451,"style":82},[67,68],[15,25453,25455],{"className":25454},[918],[15,25456,25458,25478],{"className":25457},[922,923],[15,25459,25461,25475],{"className":25460},[927],[15,25462,25464],{"className":25463,"style":932},[931],[15,25465,25466,25469],{"style":1497},[15,25467],{"className":25468,"style":940},[939],[15,25470,25472],{"className":25471},[944,945,946,947],[15,25473,539],{"className":25474},[67,68,947],[15,25476,955],{"className":25477},[954],[15,25479,25481],{"className":25480},[927],[15,25482,25484],{"className":25483,"style":962},[931],[15,25485],{},[15,25487],{"className":25488,"style":199},[77],[15,25490,602],{"className":25491},[203],[15,25493],{"className":25494,"style":199},[77],[15,25496,25498,25501,25504,25507,25510],{"className":25497},[58],[15,25499],{"className":25500,"style":124},[62],[15,25502,534],{"className":25503,"style":563},[67,68],[15,25505],{"className":25506,"style":199},[77],[15,25508,170],{"className":25509},[203],[15,25511],{"className":25512,"style":199},[77],[15,25514,25516,25519,25522],{"className":25515},[58],[15,25517],{"className":25518,"style":124},[62],[15,25520,13743],{"className":25521},[67,68],[15,25523,111],{"className":25524},[148]," 则要求「同一个体在另一个可能世界中的取值」，也就是要求",[305,25527,25528,25529],{},"同一个 ",[15,25530,25532,25545],{"className":25531,"translate":19},[18],[15,25533,25535],{"className":25534},[23],[25,25536,25537],{"xmlns":27},[29,25538,25539,25543],{},[32,25540,25541],{},[35,25542,13753],{},[47,25544,13753],{"encoding":49},[15,25546,25548],{"className":25547,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,25549,25551,25554],{"className":25550},[58],[15,25552],{"className":25553,"style":635},[62],[15,25555,13753],{"className":25556},[67,68],"，而 ",[15,25559,25561,25574],{"className":25560,"translate":19},[18],[15,25562,25564],{"className":25563},[23],[25,25565,25566],{"xmlns":27},[29,25567,25568,25572],{},[32,25569,25570],{},[35,25571,13753],{},[47,25573,13753],{"encoding":49},[15,25575,25577],{"className":25576,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,25578,25580,25583],{"className":25579},[58],[15,25581],{"className":25582,"style":635},[62],[15,25584,13753],{"className":25585},[67,68]," 本身不可观测。观测数据只能给出内生变量 ",[15,25588,25590,25603],{"className":25589,"translate":19},[18],[15,25591,25593],{"className":25592},[23],[25,25594,25595],{"xmlns":27},[29,25596,25597,25601],{},[32,25598,25599],{},[35,25600,1341],{},[47,25602,1341],{"encoding":49},[15,25604,25606],{"className":25605,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,25607,25609,25612],{"className":25608},[58],[15,25610],{"className":25611,"style":299},[62],[15,25613,1341],{"className":25614,"style":82},[67,68]," 的联合分布，一般无法唯一反解出 ",[15,25617,25619,25643],{"className":25618,"translate":19},[18],[15,25620,25622],{"className":25621},[23],[25,25623,25624],{"xmlns":27},[29,25625,25626,25640],{},[32,25627,25628,25630,25632,25634,25636,25638],{},[35,25629,98],{},[39,25631,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,25633,13753],{},[39,25635,170],{},[35,25637,13743],{},[39,25639,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,25641,25642],{"encoding":49},"P(u\\mid e)",[15,25644,25646,25670],{"className":25645,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,25647,25649,25652,25655,25658,25661,25664,25667],{"className":25648},[58],[15,25650],{"className":25651,"style":124},[62],[15,25653,98],{"className":25654,"style":128},[67,68],[15,25656,102],{"className":25657},[132],[15,25659,13753],{"className":25660},[67,68],[15,25662],{"className":25663,"style":199},[77],[15,25665,170],{"className":25666},[203],[15,25668],{"className":25669,"style":199},[77],[15,25671,25673,25676,25679],{"className":25672},[58],[15,25674],{"className":25675,"style":124},[62],[15,25677,13743],{"className":25678},[67,68],[15,25680,111],{"className":25681},[148],[11,25683,25684,25685],{},"由此可以得到一个一般性判断：",[305,25686,25687],{},"反事实量在一般情形下不可从观测数据识别，只有在 SCM 被完整指定、或引入足够强的额外假设时才可计算。",[11,25689,25690,25691,25770,25771,25859,25860,811,25888,25916,25917,25919,25920,25948],{},"一个极端而富有启发的例子是线性 SCM：此时 ",[15,25692,25694,25718],{"className":25693,"translate":19},[18],[15,25695,25697],{"className":25696},[23],[25,25698,25699],{"xmlns":27},[29,25700,25701,25715],{},[32,25702,25703,25705,25707,25709,25711,25713],{},[35,25704,1341],{},[39,25706,602],{},[35,25708,13740],{},[35,25710,1341],{},[39,25712,2890],{},[35,25714,2454],{},[47,25716,25717],{"encoding":49},"V = BV + U",[15,25719,25721,25739,25761],{"className":25720,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,25722,25724,25727,25730,25733,25736],{"className":25723},[58],[15,25725],{"className":25726,"style":299},[62],[15,25728,1341],{"className":25729,"style":82},[67,68],[15,25731],{"className":25732,"style":199},[77],[15,25734,602],{"className":25735},[203],[15,25737],{"className":25738,"style":199},[77],[15,25740,25742,25745,25749,25752,25755,25758],{"className":25741},[58],[15,25743],{"className":25744,"style":1636},[62],[15,25746,13740],{"className":25747,"style":25748},[67,68],"margin-right:0.0502em;",[15,25750,1341],{"className":25751,"style":82},[67,68],[15,25753],{"className":25754,"style":82},[77],[15,25756,2890],{"className":25757},[1646],[15,25759],{"className":25760,"style":82},[77],[15,25762,25764,25767],{"className":25763},[58],[15,25765],{"className":25766,"style":299},[62],[15,25768,2454],{"className":25769,"style":2566},[67,68]," 蕴含 ",[15,25772,25774,25802],{"className":25773,"translate":19},[18],[15,25775,25777],{"className":25776},[23],[25,25778,25779],{"xmlns":27},[29,25780,25781,25799],{},[32,25782,25783,25785,25787,25789,25791,25793,25795,25797],{},[35,25784,2454],{},[39,25786,602],{},[39,25788,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,25790,16645],{},[39,25792,14210],{},[35,25794,13740],{},[39,25796,111],{"stretchy":101},[35,25798,1341],{},[47,25800,25801],{"encoding":49},"U = (I-B)V",[15,25803,25805,25823,25844],{"className":25804,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,25806,25808,25811,25814,25817,25820],{"className":25807},[58],[15,25809],{"className":25810,"style":299},[62],[15,25812,2454],{"className":25813,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,25815],{"className":25816,"style":199},[77],[15,25818,602],{"className":25819},[203],[15,25821],{"className":25822,"style":199},[77],[15,25824,25826,25829,25832,25835,25838,25841],{"className":25825},[58],[15,25827],{"className":25828,"style":124},[62],[15,25830,102],{"className":25831},[132],[15,25833,16645],{"className":25834,"style":69},[67,68],[15,25836],{"className":25837,"style":82},[77],[15,25839,14210],{"className":25840},[1646],[15,25842],{"className":25843,"style":82},[77],[15,25845,25847,25850,25853,25856],{"className":25846},[58],[15,25848],{"className":25849,"style":124},[62],[15,25851,13740],{"className":25852,"style":25748},[67,68],[15,25854,111],{"className":25855},[148],[15,25857,1341],{"className":25858,"style":82},[67,68],"，于是给定任一观测到的 ",[15,25861,25863,25876],{"className":25862,"translate":19},[18],[15,25864,25866],{"className":25865},[23],[25,25867,25868],{"xmlns":27},[29,25869,25870,25874],{},[32,25871,25872],{},[35,25873,12513],{},[47,25875,12513],{"encoding":49},[15,25877,25879],{"className":25878,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,25880,25882,25885],{"className":25881},[58],[15,25883],{"className":25884,"style":635},[62],[15,25886,12513],{"className":25887,"style":563},[67,68],[15,25889,25891,25904],{"className":25890,"translate":19},[18],[15,25892,25894],{"className":25893},[23],[25,25895,25896],{"xmlns":27},[29,25897,25898,25902],{},[32,25899,25900],{},[35,25901,13753],{},[47,25903,13753],{"encoding":49},[15,25905,25907],{"className":25906,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,25908,25910,25913],{"className":25909},[58],[15,25911],{"className":25912,"style":635},[62],[15,25914,13753],{"className":25915},[67,68]," 被",[305,25918,15960],{},"，反事实分布退化为一个点质量，个体处理效应似乎唾手可得。但这一「可得」完全是线性与可加假设的产物，而非数据所提供的信息——一旦允许非线性或非高斯，「同一个 ",[15,25921,25923,25936],{"className":25922,"translate":19},[18],[15,25924,25926],{"className":25925},[23],[25,25927,25928],{"xmlns":27},[29,25929,25930,25934],{},[32,25931,25932],{},[35,25933,13753],{},[47,25935,13753],{"encoding":49},[15,25937,25939],{"className":25938,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,25940,25942,25945],{"className":25941},[58],[15,25943],{"className":25944,"style":635},[62],[15,25946,13753],{"className":25947},[67,68],"」便重新变得不可复原。这也正是经典 SEM 传统（见 4.2 节）能够讨论「个体效应」、而现代因果推断对此极为谨慎的原因所在。",[11,25950,25951],{},"因此第三层虽然在形式上已被定义清楚，其实践可达性却最弱。本文余下部分把重点放在第二层的可识别性上，这并非理论上的偏好，而是数据所能支撑的边界所在。",[1309,25953,25955],{"id":25954},"_34-中介分析从总效应到直接效应与间接效应","3.4 中介分析：从总效应到直接效应与间接效应",[11,25957,25958,25959,26031],{},"第一部分曾用链结构 ",[15,25960,25962,25983],{"className":25961,"translate":19},[18],[15,25963,25965],{"className":25964},[23],[25,25966,25967],{"xmlns":27},[29,25968,25969,25981],{},[32,25970,25971,25973,25975,25977,25979],{},[35,25972,37],{},[39,25974,1844],{},[35,25976,4205],{},[39,25978,1844],{},[35,25980,45],{},[47,25982,4352],{"encoding":49},[15,25984,25986,26004,26022],{"className":25985,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,25987,25989,25992,25995,25998,26001],{"className":25988},[58],[15,25990],{"className":25991,"style":299},[62],[15,25993,37],{"className":25994,"style":69},[67,68],[15,25996],{"className":25997,"style":199},[77],[15,25999,1844],{"className":26000},[203],[15,26002],{"className":26003,"style":199},[77],[15,26005,26007,26010,26013,26016,26019],{"className":26006},[58],[15,26008],{"className":26009,"style":299},[62],[15,26011,4205],{"className":26012,"style":4234},[67,68],[15,26014],{"className":26015,"style":199},[77],[15,26017,1844],{"className":26018},[203],[15,26020],{"className":26021,"style":199},[77],[15,26023,26025,26028],{"className":26024},[58],[15,26026],{"className":26027,"style":299},[62],[15,26029,45],{"className":26030,"style":82},[67,68]," 说明「控制中介会切断全部影响」。当时给出的只是定性结论，现在有了 do-算子与反事实的语言，可以把「影响如何被分解」这件事精确化。",[11,26033,6344,26034,26062,26063,26091,26092,26120,26121,4687,26149,26177,26178,26251,26252,2247],{},[15,26035,26037,26050],{"className":26036,"translate":19},[18],[15,26038,26040],{"className":26039},[23],[25,26041,26042],{"xmlns":27},[29,26043,26044,26048],{},[32,26045,26046],{},[35,26047,37],{},[47,26049,37],{"encoding":49},[15,26051,26053],{"className":26052,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,26054,26056,26059],{"className":26055},[58],[15,26057],{"className":26058,"style":299},[62],[15,26060,37],{"className":26061,"style":69},[67,68]," 为处理变量，",[15,26064,26066,26079],{"className":26065,"translate":19},[18],[15,26067,26069],{"className":26068},[23],[25,26070,26071],{"xmlns":27},[29,26072,26073,26077],{},[32,26074,26075],{},[35,26076,45],{},[47,26078,45],{"encoding":49},[15,26080,26082],{"className":26081,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,26083,26085,26088],{"className":26084},[58],[15,26086],{"className":26087,"style":299},[62],[15,26089,45],{"className":26090,"style":82},[67,68]," 为结果，",[15,26093,26095,26108],{"className":26094,"translate":19},[18],[15,26096,26098],{"className":26097},[23],[25,26099,26100],{"xmlns":27},[29,26101,26102,26106],{},[32,26103,26104],{},[35,26105,9452],{},[47,26107,9452],{"encoding":49},[15,26109,26111],{"className":26110,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,26112,26114,26117],{"className":26113},[58],[15,26115],{"className":26116,"style":299},[62],[15,26118,9452],{"className":26119,"style":2566},[67,68]," 为介于二者之间的中介变量。",[15,26122,26124,26137],{"className":26123,"translate":19},[18],[15,26125,26127],{"className":26126},[23],[25,26128,26129],{"xmlns":27},[29,26130,26131,26135],{},[32,26132,26133],{},[35,26134,37],{},[47,26136,37],{"encoding":49},[15,26138,26140],{"className":26139,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,26141,26143,26146],{"className":26142},[58],[15,26144],{"className":26145,"style":299},[62],[15,26147,37],{"className":26148,"style":69},[67,68],[15,26150,26152,26165],{"className":26151,"translate":19},[18],[15,26153,26155],{"className":26154},[23],[25,26156,26157],{"xmlns":27},[29,26158,26159,26163],{},[32,26160,26161],{},[35,26162,45],{},[47,26164,45],{"encoding":49},[15,26166,26168],{"className":26167,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,26169,26171,26174],{"className":26170},[58],[15,26172],{"className":26173,"style":299},[62],[15,26175,45],{"className":26176,"style":82},[67,68]," 的作用只可能经过两条通道：中介通道 ",[15,26179,26181,26203],{"className":26180,"translate":19},[18],[15,26182,26184],{"className":26183},[23],[25,26185,26186],{"xmlns":27},[29,26187,26188,26200],{},[32,26189,26190,26192,26194,26196,26198],{},[35,26191,37],{},[39,26193,1844],{},[35,26195,9452],{},[39,26197,1844],{},[35,26199,45],{},[47,26201,26202],{"encoding":49},"X \\to M \\to Y",[15,26204,26206,26224,26242],{"className":26205,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,26207,26209,26212,26215,26218,26221],{"className":26208},[58],[15,26210],{"className":26211,"style":299},[62],[15,26213,37],{"className":26214,"style":69},[67,68],[15,26216],{"className":26217,"style":199},[77],[15,26219,1844],{"className":26220},[203],[15,26222],{"className":26223,"style":199},[77],[15,26225,26227,26230,26233,26236,26239],{"className":26226},[58],[15,26228],{"className":26229,"style":299},[62],[15,26231,9452],{"className":26232,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,26234],{"className":26235,"style":199},[77],[15,26237,1844],{"className":26238},[203],[15,26240],{"className":26241,"style":199},[77],[15,26243,26245,26248],{"className":26244},[58],[15,26246],{"className":26247,"style":299},[62],[15,26249,45],{"className":26250,"style":82},[67,68]," 与直接通道 ",[15,26253,26255,26272],{"className":26254,"translate":19},[18],[15,26256,26258],{"className":26257},[23],[25,26259,26260],{"xmlns":27},[29,26261,26262,26270],{},[32,26263,26264,26266,26268],{},[35,26265,37],{},[39,26267,1844],{},[35,26269,45],{},[47,26271,9024],{"encoding":49},[15,26273,26275,26293],{"className":26274,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,26276,26278,26281,26284,26287,26290],{"className":26277},[58],[15,26279],{"className":26280,"style":299},[62],[15,26282,37],{"className":26283,"style":69},[67,68],[15,26285],{"className":26286,"style":199},[77],[15,26288,1844],{"className":26289},[203],[15,26291],{"className":26292,"style":199},[77],[15,26294,26296,26299],{"className":26295},[58],[15,26297],{"className":26298,"style":299},[62],[15,26300,45],{"className":26301,"style":82},[67,68],[4108,26303,26304],{},[4111,26305],{"height":26306,"width":4114,"style":4115,"data-d2-theme":4116,"alt":4117,"src":26307},82,"data:image\u002Fsvg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMzIyIiBoZWlnaHQ9IjgyIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciIGRhdGEtZDItdmVyc2lvbj0idjAuOS4wIiB2aWV3Qm94PSIwIDAgMzIyIDgyIj48c3ZnIHdpZHRoPSIzMjIiIGhlaWdodD0iODIiIGNsYXNzPSJkMi0xNzAwMDAyMzc3IGQyLXN2ZyIgdmlld0JveD0iLTEgLTExIDMyMiA4MiI+PHJlY3Qgd2lkdGg9IjMyMiIgaGVpZ2h0PSI4MiIgeD0iLTEiIHk9Ii0xMSIgc3Ryb2tlLXdpZHRoPSIwIiByeD0iMCIgc3R5bGU9ImZpbGw6I2ZmZiIvPjxzdHlsZT4uZDItMTcwMDAwMjM3NyAudGV4dC1ib2xke2ZvbnQtZmFtaWx5OiZxdW90O2QyLTE3MDAwMDIzNzctZm9udC1ib2xkJnF1b3Q7fUBmb250LWZhY2V7Zm9udC1mYW1pbHk6ZDItMTcwMDAwMjM3Ny1mb250LWJvbGQ7c3JjOnVybChkYXRhOmFwcGxpY2F0aW9uL2ZvbnQtd29mZjtiYXNlNjQsZDA5R1JnQUJBQUFBQUFiSUFBb0FBQUFBQzRBQUFndUZBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUJQVXk4eUFBQUE5QUFBQUdBQUFBQmdYeEhYcm1OdFlYQUFBQUZVQUFBQVBBQUFBRHdBZWdDSloyeDVaZ0FBQVpBQUFBRk5BQUFCVkQ1ZDV6bG9aV0ZrQUFBQzRBQUFBRFlBQUFBMkczOGUxR2hvWldFQUFBTVlBQUFBSkFBQUFDUUtmd1hEYUcxMGVBQUFBendBQUFBUUFBQUFFQW54QUtCc2IyTmhBQUFEVEFBQUFBb0FBQUFLQVFnQXVHMWhlSEFBQUFOWUFBQUFJQUFBQUNBQUhBRDNibUZ0WlFBQUEzZ0FBQU12QUFBSUtnandWa0Z3YjNOMEFBQUdxQUFBQUNBQUFBQWcvOUVBTWdBREFpb0N2QUFGQUFBQ2lnSllBQUFBU3dLS0FsZ0FBQUZlQURJQktRQUFBZ3NIQXdNRUF3SUNCR0FBQXZjQUFBQURBQUFBQUFBQUFBQkJSRUpQQUNBQUlQLy9BdTcvQmdBQUE5Z0JFU0FBQVo4QUFBQUFBZkFDbEFBQUFDQUFBd0FBQUFFQUF3QUJBQUFBREFBRUFEQUFBQUFHQUFRQUFRQUNBRTBBV2YvL0FBQUFUUUJZLy8vL3RQK3FBQUVBQUFBQUFBQUFBUUFDQUFNQUFIaWNWTTB4aTlOUUFBZncvM3Q1OXRuRXRxUWhDWmFTVkIvTm8rTDIwZ1F0TFRoMERJMnoxa0lYRWR4MHNuT2Q0bGFLV0N3S2NWQndVOUNpWTcvR3pkMjZIZGVodWFOd3kzMkIzdysza0FKMFNoZlFVRVlOZGRpQU11K1piU1dsNExHS1krRnFzU1FtVDJtOStKYkxEdXQwMklQV1IvL2RaRUtTRjNSeGZQMHNtVTdQSjcxZXNmNjdLVDZRTnh1QUlBSG9UNXJCUDNuS2NoeFhSVkZzS1ZOMHd5aUtCZWRDU3VGUjIwNit2dExyT3ROTi9lV1g5N3lzc2U3NDZUaGs3RGFuV1hIV0hIamVvRW51SDkvdVc2UFVYeDBPS3o4ZHRmYW53d0RvUTVyaExxQXNUYm5YU2F3MFM4Z2drS0pVNHR6NC9TTi9aTGdWWnRoNitQbjdyL3pKSGJmS0RNZm9reEhwejV6UTkwTm5WdndyL3N3Ynl2TlVZdzZBWEY0QTFLWVphb0RxM3JEdC85djE0MnFqd3FyTlN1L1Rka2Z5WlhzWUJNUDJzbmkrQTY0QUFBRC8vd01BbTloTmdBQUFBQUFCQUFBQUFndUY5aHdJczE4UFBQVUFBUVBvQUFBQUFOaGRvSVFBQUFBQTNXWXZOdjQzL3NRSWJRUHhBQUVBQXdBQ0FBQUFBQUFBQUFFQUFBUFkvdThBQUFpWS9qZitOd2h0QUFFQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFFQXJJQVVBTDZBRTBDTndBTEFnMy8rQUFBQUN3QVhnQ01BS29BQUFBQkFBQUFCQUNRQUF3QVl3QUhBQUVBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUJBQURlSnljbE05dUcyVVV4WDlPYk5NS3dRSkZWYnFKdmdXTElyVmpVeVZWMjZ3bXBGWkdSSEh3dUNBa2hEUzJKN2JsOGN6SU0zWWFub0ExYjhGYmRNVkQ4QnlJTmJyWDE2NWRFQVVyaW5WbTV2NDUzN25uZnNBQmY3SlBwWG9mK0syZUdxNXdWTDgydk1lOStvWGhmVnIxUGNOVkh0VitOMXhqVUZzWXJ2TjVyV1A0STk1V2Z6RjhqK1BxajRidmMxaHRHZjZZcDlVRHc1L3NPLzR3L0NuSHZGM2lDanpuWjhNVkRza043M0hBRDRiM2VZRFZyRlI1UU5Od2pjODRNbHpuQ09neXBpUmhUTW9ReHcxamhzeVpFVk1RRWpOanpBMHhBeHdCUGdtbHZrMkpGRG1HLy9nMklxUmtScVFWUjVRNEVrSVNJZ3BHVnZFbnpjcTQxbzdTWjZaSXV2bVVqSWpvYWNhRWlCUkh4cENNbEppSjFpa3B5WGxKZ3dZRmZlV2JVMUxnVVRBbXdTTmp4cEFHYlZwYzBtWEVtQUpIU3lzSnM1Q01HMHB1aWJTL3N3aFJwazlNU21HczVxUU1sS2RUZnJGbUIxemlhSk5yN0dibHk2MEtqM0Y4cTluQ1RXSWNYK0xwdjl0Z3R0MTN4U1ppb1hxS2hqMFM1WG1yRXh5cDR0TFg1eHZGSlM5eE8rbXp6ZVRER2cyVW5jeDZUSSs1emwvbUozbkNKTVc1UTN4Q2RWRG9IdUk0MCtlQVVCWDVqb0F1RjdSNVRWZWZmVHAwOExtaVM4QXJ6VzNUd2ZFVmJhNDQxNHhBOGZKYlN4MXp4ZmM0dmliUUdLa2RtejZpdVR5OUlUZDNDM2R4aHB4alNxNWJJRE9XODR2ejQ1MG1MRHVVYmJtalVGZjBkWThrVXZaQVZKRTlpeGlhSzNKMXhWUzFYSG1qTVAwRzVnajVXdXBzMzMyWGJWalk3cTIyK0k1TWQ5Z3hOMDR5dVNXakQwM1ZlODh6dC9ybkVURWdvNmNSZlRLbU5DaTUwN05kRXpFbndYR3VQcjdRTFNueDF6blM1MDVkRWpOVkJnR3AxcG1SNjI5a3ZnbU5lMy9MOTg3dUV0bThxZTdvWkgycVhicEk1WFJqUnE5VnZkVzMwRlNPTnliUXNLbG1saU1UbHNyTGs0cjNKZHJiNGgrcSt3dTkzVEtlY0VaR3d1QnZOOEJUUEpvY2M4SXBJKzBnbFZNV2RqczA5WVpvOG9KVFBmMkVXS1Brdm55ak9rbUZFenllY2NJSkwzajJubzRySnM2NHVEV1h6ZDQrNTV6UjV2US9uV0laMythTVYrdDMvOTcxVjJYYTFMTTRucXlmbnU4OHhVZi93NjFmOEhqcnZ1em9MU0NiczdCcTc3Ymlpb2lwY0hHSG0xcTRoM2gvQVFBQS8vOERBUFMzVDFFQUFBTUFBQUFBQUFEL3pnQXlBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUE9KX0uY29ubmVjdGlvbiwuc2hhcGV7c3Ryb2tlLWxpbmVqb2luOnJvdW5kfS5zaGFwZXtzaGFwZS1yZW5kZXJpbmc6Z2VvbWV0cmljUHJlY2lzaW9ufS5jb25uZWN0aW9ue3N0cm9rZS1saW5lY2FwOnJvdW5kfS5kMi0xNzAwMDAyMzc3IC5maWxsLU4xe2ZpbGw6IzBhMGYyNX0uZDItMTcwMDAwMjM3NyAuc3Ryb2tlLUIxe3N0cm9rZTojMGQzMmIyfTwvc3R5bGU+PGcgY2xhc3M9IldBPT0gbWVkaWF0aW9uX25vZGUiPjxnIGNsYXNzPSJzaGFwZSI+PGNpcmNsZSBjeD0iMjAiI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M_{x^*}}]",[15,26828,26830,26896,27039,27192,27259],{"className":26829,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,26831,26833,26836,26843,26846,26849,26852,26855,26884,26887,26890,26893],{"className":26832},[58],[15,26834],{"className":26835,"style":124},[62],[15,26837,26839],{"className":26838},[67],[15,26840,26842],{"className":26841},[67,10365],"NDE",[15,26844,102],{"className":26845},[132],[15,26847,539],{"className":26848},[67,68],[15,26850,42],{"className":26851},[73],[15,26853],{"className":26854,"style":78},[77],[15,26856,26858,26861],{"className":26857},[67],[15,26859,539],{"className":26860},[67,68],[15,26862,26864],{"className":26863},[918],[15,26865,26867],{"className":26866},[922],[15,26868,26870],{"className":26869},[927],[15,26871,26873],{"className":26872,"style":26609},[931],[15,26874,26875,26878],{"style":1002},[15,26876],{"className":26877,"style":940},[939],[15,26879,26881],{"className":26880},[944,945,946,947],[15,26882,26364],{"className":26883},[1646,947],[15,26885,111],{"className":26886},[148],[15,26888],{"className":26889,"style":199},[77],[15,26891,602],{"className":26892},[203],[15,26894],{"className":26895,"style":199},[77],[15,26897,26899,26903,26906,26909,27027,27030,27033,27036],{"className":26898},[58],[15,26900],{"className":26901,"style":26902},[62],"height:1.0383em;vertical-align:-0.2883em;",[15,26904,1346],{"className":26905},[67,26404],[15,26907,13793],{"className":26908},[132],[15,26910,26912,26915],{"className":26911},[67],[15,26913,45],{"className":26914,"style":82},[67,68],[15,26916,26918],{"className":26917},[918],[15,26919,26921,27018],{"className":26920},[922,923],[15,26922,26924,27015],{"className":26923},[927],[15,26925,26927],{"className":26926,"style":7346},[931],[15,26928,26929,26932],{"style":1497},[15,26930],{"className":26931,"style":940},[939],[15,26933,26935],{"className":26934},[944,945,946,947],[15,26936,26938,26941,26944],{"className":26937},[67,947],[15,26939,539],{"className":26940},[67,68,947],[15,26942,42],{"className":26943},[73,947],[15,26945,26947,26950],{"className":26946},[67,947],[15,26948,9452],{"className":26949,"style":2566},[67,68,947],[15,26951,26953],{"className":26952},[918],[15,26954,26956,27006],{"className":26955},[922,923],[15,26957,26959,27003],{"className":26958},[927],[15,26960,26962],{"className":26961,"style":18644},[931],[15,26963,26965,26969],{"style":26964},"top:-2.3448em;margin-left:-0.109em;margin-right:0.0714em;",[15,26966],{"className":26967,"style":26968},[939],"height:2.5423em;",[15,26970,26972],{"className":26971},[944,18388,15064,947],[15,26973,26975],{"className":26974},[67,947],[15,26976,26978,26981],{"className":26977},[67,947],[15,26979,539],{"className":26980},[67,68,947],[15,26982,26984],{"className":26983},[918],[15,26985,26987],{"className":26986},[922],[15,26988,26990],{"className":26989},[927],[15,26991,26994],{"className":26992,"style":26993},[931],"height:0.7593em;",[15,26995,26997,27000],{"style":26996},"top:-2.794em;margin-right:0.1em;",[15,26998],{"className":26999,"style":18384},[939],[15,27001,26364],{"className":27002},[1646,947],[15,27004,955],{"className":27005},[954],[15,27007,27009],{"className":27008},[927],[15,27010,27013],{"className":27011,"style":27012},[931],"height:0.1975em;",[15,27014],{},[15,27016,955],{"className":27017},[954],[15,27019,27021],{"className":27020},[927],[15,27022,27025],{"className":27023,"style":27024},[931],"height:0.2883em;",[15,27026],{},[15,27028,13802],{"className":27029},[148],[15,27031],{"className":27032,"style":82},[77],[15,27034,14210],{"className":27035},[1646],[15,27037],{"className":27038,"style":82},[77],[15,27040,27042,27045,27048,27051,27120,27123,27126,27129,27132,27139,27142,27145,27148,27151,27180,27183,27186,27189],{"className":27041},[58],[15,27043],{"className":27044,"style":124},[62],[15,27046,1346],{"className":27047},[67,26404],[15,27049,13793],{"className":27050},[132],[15,27052,27054,27057],{"className":27053},[67],[15,27055,45],{"className":27056,"style":82},[67,68],[15,27058,27060],{"className":27059},[918],[15,27061,27063,27112],{"className":27062},[922,923],[15,27064,27066,27109],{"className":27065},[927],[15,27067,27069],{"className":27068,"style":26493},[931],[15,27070,27071,27074],{"style":1497},[15,27072],{"className":27073,"style":940},[939],[15,27075,27077],{"className":27076},[944,945,946,947],[15,27078,27080],{"className":27079},[67,947],[15,27081,27083,27086],{"className":27082},[67,947],[15,27084,539],{"className":27085},[67,68,947],[15,27087,27089],{"className":27088},[918],[15,27090,27092],{"className":27091},[922],[15,27093,27095],{"className":27094},[927],[15,27096,27098],{"className":27097,"style":26523},[931],[15,27099,27100,27103],{"style":26526},[15,27101],{"className":27102,"style":18384},[939],[15,27104,27106],{"className":27105},[944,18388,15064,947],[15,27107,26364],{"className":27108},[1646,947],[15,27110,955],{"className":27111},[954],[15,27113,27115],{"className":27114},[927],[15,27116,27118],{"className":27117,"style":962},[931],[15,27119],{},[15,27121,13802],{"className":27122},[148],[15,27124,42],{"className":27125},[73],[15,27127],{"className":27128,"style":10457},[77],[15,27130],{"className":27131,"style":78},[77],[15,27133,27135],{"className":27134},[67],[15,27136,27138],{"className":27137},[67,10365],"NIE",[15,27140,102],{"className":27141},[132],[15,27143,539],{"className":27144},[67,68],[15,27146,42],{"className":27147},[73],[15,27149],{"className":27150,"style":78},[77],[15,27152,27154,27157],{"className":27153},[67],[15,27155,539],{"className":27156},[67,68],[15,27158,27160],{"className":27159},[918],[15,27161,27163],{"className":27162},[922],[15,27164,27166],{"className":27165},[927],[15,27167,27169],{"className":27168,"style":26609},[931],[15,27170,27171,27174],{"style":1002},[15,27172],{"className":27173,"style":940},[939],[15,27175,27177],{"className":27176},[944,945,946,947],[15,27178,26364],{"className":27179},[1646,947],[15,27181,111],{"className":27182},[148],[15,27184],{"className":27185,"style":199},[77],[15,27187,602],{"className":27188},[203],[15,27190],{"className":27191,"style":199},[77],[15,27193,27195,27198,27201,27204,27247,27250,27253,27256],{"className":27194},[58],[15,27196],{"className":27197,"style":124},[62],[15,27199,1346],{"className":27200},[67,26404],[15,27202,13793],{"className":27203},[132],[15,27205,27207,27210],{"className":27206},[67],[15,27208,45],{"className":27209,"style":82},[67,68],[15,27211,27213],{"className":27212},[918],[15,27214,27216,27239],{"className":27215},[922,923],[15,27217,27219,27236],{"className":27218},[927],[15,27220,27222],{"className":27221,"style":932},[931],[15,27223,27224,27227],{"style":1497},[15,27225],{"className":27226,"style":940},[939],[15,27228,27230],{"className":27229},[944,945,946,947],[15,27231,27233],{"className":27232},[67,947],[15,27234,539],{"className":27235},[67,68,947],[15,27237,955],{"className":27238},[954],[15,27240,27242],{"className":27241},[927],[15,27243,27245],{"className":27244,"style":962},[931],[15,27246],{},[15,27248,13802],{"className":27249},[148],[15,27251],{"className":27252,"style":82},[77],[15,27254,14210],{"className":27255},[1646],[15,27257],{"className":27258,"style":82},[77],[15,27260,27262,27265,27268,27271,27383],{"className":27261},[58],[15,27263],{"className":27264,"style":26902},[62],[15,27266,1346],{"className":27267},[67,26404],[15,27269,13793],{"className":27270},[132],[15,27272,27274,27277],{"className":27273},[67],[15,27275,45],{"className":27276,"style":82},[67,68],[15,27278,27280],{"className":27279},[918],[15,27281,27283,27375],{"className":27282},[922,923],[15,27284,27286,27372],{"className":27285},[927],[15,27287,27289],{"className":27288,"style":7346},[931],[15,27290,27291,27294],{"style":1497},[15,27292],{"className":27293,"style":940},[939],[15,27295,27297],{"className":27296},[944,945,946,947],[15,27298,27300,27303,27306],{"className":27299},[67,947],[15,27301,539],{"className":27302},[67,68,947],[15,27304,42],{"className":27305},[73,947],[15,27307,27309,27312],{"className":27308},[67,947],[15,27310,9452],{"className":27311,"style":2566},[67,68,947],[15,27313,27315],{"className":27314},[918],[15,27316,27318,27364],{"className":27317},[922,923],[15,27319,27321,27361],{"className":27320},[927],[15,27322,27324],{"className":27323,"style":18644},[931],[15,27325,27326,27329],{"style":26964},[15,27327],{"className":27328,"style":26968},[939],[15,27330,27332],{"className":27331},[944,18388,15064,947],[15,27333,27335],{"className":27334},[67,947],[15,27336,27338,27341],{"className":27337},[67,947],[15,27339,539],{"className":27340},[67,68,947],[15,27342,27344],{"className":27343},[918],[15,27345,27347],{"className":27346},[922],[15,27348,27350],{"className":27349},[927],[15,27351,27353],{"className":27352,"style":26993},[931],[15,27354,27355,27358],{"style":26996},[15,27356],{"className":27357,"style":18384},[939],[15,27359,26364],{"className":27360},[1646,947],[15,27362,955],{"className":27363},[954],[15,27365,27367],{"className":27366},[927],[15,27368,27370],{"className":27369,"style":27012},[931],[15,27371],{},[15,27373,955],{"className":27374},[954],[15,27376,27378],{"className":27377},[927],[15,27379,27381],{"className":27380,"style":27024},[931],[15,27382],{},[15,27384,13802],{"className":27385},[148],[15,27387,27389,27421],{"className":27388,"translate":19},[18],[15,27390,27392],{"className":27391},[23],[25,27393,27394],{"xmlns":27},[29,27395,27396,27418],{},[32,27397,27398],{},[863,27399,27400,27402],{},[35,27401,45],{},[32,27403,27404,27406,27408],{},[35,27405,539],{},[39,27407,42],{"separator":41},[863,27409,27410,27412],{},[35,27411,9452],{},[872,27413,27414,27416],{},[35,27415,539],{},[39,27417,26364],{},[47,27419,27420],{"encoding":49},"Y_{x, M_{x^*}}",[15,27422,27424],{"className":27423,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,27425,27427,27431],{"className":27426},[58],[15,27428],{"className":27429,"style":27430},[62],"height:0.9716em;vertical-align:-0.2883em;",[15,27432,27434,27437],{"className":27433},[67],[15,27435,45],{"className":27436,"style":82},[67,68],[15,27438,27440],{"className":27439},[918],[15,27441,27443,27535],{"className":27442},[922,923],[15,27444,27446,27532],{"className":27445},[927],[15,27447,27449],{"className":27448,"style":7346},[931],[15,27450,27451,27454],{"style":1497},[15,27452],{"className":27453,"style":940},[939],[15,27455,27457],{"className":27456},[944,945,946,947],[15,27458,27460,27463,27466],{"className":27459},[67,947],[15,27461,539],{"className":27462},[67,68,947],[15,27464,42],{"className":27465},[73,947],[15,27467,27469,27472],{"className":27468},[67,947],[15,27470,9452],{"className":27471,"style":2566},[67,68,947],[15,27473,27475],{"className":27474},[918],[15,27476,27478,27524],{"className":27477},[922,923],[15,27479,27481,27521],{"className":27480},[927],[15,27482,27484],{"className":27483,"style":18644},[931],[15,27485,27486,27489],{"style":26964},[15,27487],{"className":27488,"style":26968},[939],[15,27490,27492],{"className":27491},[944,18388,15064,947],[15,27493,27495],{"className":27494},[67,947],[15,27496,27498,27501],{"className":27497},[67,947],[15,27499,539],{"className":27500},[67,68,947],[15,27502,27504],{"className":27503},[918],[15,27505,27507],{"className":27506},[922],[15,27508,27510],{"className":27509},[927],[15,27511,27513],{"className":27512,"style":26993},[931],[15,27514,27515,27518],{"style":26996},[15,27516],{"className":27517,"style":18384},[939],[15,27519,26364],{"className":27520},[1646,947],[15,27522,955],{"className":27523},[954],[15,27525,27527],{"className":27526},[927],[15,27528,27530],{"className":27529,"style":27012},[931],[15,27531],{},[15,27533,955],{"className":27534},[954],[15,27536,27538],{"className":27537},[927],[15,27539,27541],{"className":27540,"style":27024},[931],[15,27542],{}," 表示「把 ",[15,27545,27547,27560],{"className":27546,"translate":19},[18],[15,27548,27550],{"className":27549},[23],[25,27551,27552],{"xmlns":27},[29,27553,27554,27558],{},[32,27555,27556],{},[35,27557,37],{},[47,27559,37],{"encoding":49},[15,27561,27563],{"className":27562,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,27564,27566,27569],{"className":27565},[58],[15,27567],{"className":27568,"style":299},[62],[15,27570,37],{"className":27571,"style":69},[67,68]," 设为 ",[15,27574,27576,27589],{"className":27575,"translate":19},[18],[15,27577,27579],{"className":27578},[23],[25,27580,27581],{"xmlns":27},[29,27582,27583,27587],{},[32,27584,27585],{},[35,27586,539],{},[47,27588,539],{"encoding":49},[15,27590,27592],{"className":27591,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,27593,27595,27598],{"className":27594},[58],[15,27596],{"className":27597,"style":635},[62],[15,27599,539],{"className":27600},[67,68],"，同时把 ",[15,27603,27605,27618],{"className":27604,"translate":19},[18],[15,27606,27608],{"className":27607},[23],[25,27609,27610],{"xmlns":27},[29,27611,27612,27616],{},[32,27613,27614],{},[35,27615,9452],{},[47,27617,9452],{"encoding":49},[15,27619,27621],{"className":27620,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,27622,27624,27627],{"className":27623},[58],[15,27625],{"className":27626,"style":299},[62],[15,27628,9452],{"className":27629,"style":2566},[67,68]," 设为",[305,27632,6995,27633,27661,27662,7171,27720,27748],{},[15,27634,27636,27649],{"className":27635,"translate":19},[18],[15,27637,27639],{"className":27638},[23],[25,27640,27641],{"xmlns":27},[29,27642,27643,27647],{},[32,27644,27645],{},[35,27646,37],{},[47,27648,37],{"encoding":49},[15,27650,27652],{"className":27651,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,27653,27655,27658],{"className":27654},[58],[15,27656],{"className":27657,"style":299},[62],[15,27659,37],{"className":27660,"style":69},[67,68]," 取 ",[15,27663,27665,27682],{"className":27664,"translate":19},[18],[15,27666,27668],{"className":27667},[23],[25,27669,27670],{"xmlns":27},[29,27671,27672,27680],{},[32,27673,27674],{},[872,27675,27676,27678],{},[35,27677,539],{},[39,27679,26364],{},[47,27681,26599],{"encoding":49},[15,27683,27685],{"className":27684,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,27686,27688,27691],{"className":27687},[58],[15,27689],{"className":27690,"style":26609},[62],[15,27692,27694,27697],{"className":27693},[67],[15,27695,539],{"className":27696},[67,68],[15,27698,27700],{"className":27699},[918],[15,27701,27703],{"className":27702},[922],[15,27704,27706],{"className":27705},[927],[15,27707,27709],{"className":27708,"style":26609},[931],[15,27710,27711,27714],{"style":1002},[15,27712],{"className":27713,"style":940},[939],[15,27715,27717],{"className":27716},[944,945,946,947],[15,27718,26364],{"className":27719},[1646,947],[15,27721,27723,27736],{"className":27722,"translate":19},[18],[15,27724,27726],{"className":27725},[23],[25,27727,27728],{"xmlns":27},[29,27729,27730,27734],{},[32,27731,27732],{},[35,27733,9452],{},[47,27735,9452],{"encoding":49},[15,27737,27739],{"className":27738,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,27740,27742,27745],{"className":27741},[58],[15,27743],{"className":27744,"style":299},[62],[15,27746,9452],{"className":27747,"style":2566},[67,68]," 本会取的值","」这一反事实量。",[11,27751,27752,27753,26314,27756],{},"由定义立即可得",[305,27754,27755],{},"总效应的精确分解",[15,27757,27759,27797],{"className":27758,"translate":19},[18],[15,27760,27762],{"className":27761},[23],[25,27763,27764],{"xmlns":27},[29,27765,27766,27794],{},[32,27767,27768,27774,27776,27784,27786],{},[32,27769,27770,27772],{},[35,27771,26331],{"mathvariant":878},[35,27773,1346],{"mathvariant":878},[39,27775,602],{},[32,27777,27778,27780,27782],{},[35,27779,26690],{"mathvariant":878},[35,27781,26693],{"mathvariant":878},[35,27783,1346],{"mathvariant":878},[39,27785,2890],{},[32,27787,27788,27790,27792],{},[35,27789,26690],{"mathvariant":878},[35,27791,16645],{"mathvariant":878},[35,27793,1346],{"mathvariant":878},[47,27795,27796],{"encoding":49},"\\mathrm{TE} = \\mathrm{NDE} + \\mathrm{NIE}",[15,27798,27800,27821,27842],{"className":27799,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,27801,27803,27806,27812,27815,27818],{"className":27802},[58],[15,27804],{"className":27805,"style":299},[62],[15,27807,27809],{"className":27808},[67],[15,27810,26385],{"className":27811},[67,10365],[15,27813],{"className":27814,"style":199},[77],[15,27816,602],{"className":27817},[203],[15,27819],{"className":27820,"style":199},[77],[15,27822,27824,27827,27833,27836,27839],{"className":27823},[58],[15,27825],{"className":27826,"style":1636},[62],[15,27828,27830],{"className":27829},[67],[15,27831,26842],{"className":27832},[67,10365],[15,27834],{"className":27835,"style":82},[77],[15,27837,2890],{"className":27838},[1646],[15,27840],{"className":27841,"style":82},[77],[15,27843,27845,27848],{"className":27844},[58],[15,27846],{"className":27847,"style":299},[62],[15,27849,27851],{"className":27850},[67],[15,27852,27138],{"className":27853},[67,10365],[11,27855,27856,27857,27960,27961,28030],{},"其含义可以这样读：NDE 让中介停留在「另一个世界」的取值上，因此度量的正是直接通道；NIE 则度量中介由 ",[15,27858,27860,27882],{"className":27859,"translate":19},[18],[15,27861,27863],{"className":27862},[23],[25,27864,27865],{"xmlns":27},[29,27866,27867,27879],{},[32,27868,27869],{},[863,27870,27871,27873],{},[35,27872,9452],{},[872,27874,27875,27877],{},[35,27876,539],{},[39,27878,26364],{},[47,27880,27881],{"encoding":49},"M_{x^*}",[15,27883,27885],{"className":27884,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,27886,27888,27891],{"className":27887},[58],[15,27889],{"className":27890,"style":1863},[62],[15,27892,27894,27897],{"className":27893},[67],[15,27895,9452],{"className":27896,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,27898,27900],{"className":27899},[918],[15,27901,27903,27952],{"className":27902},[922,923],[15,27904,27906,27949],{"className":27905},[927],[15,27907,27909],{"className":27908,"style":26493},[931],[15,27910,27911,27914],{"style":2581},[15,27912],{"className":27913,"style":940},[939],[15,27915,27917],{"className":27916},[944,945,946,947],[15,27918,27920],{"className":27919},[67,947],[15,27921,27923,27926],{"className":27922},[67,947],[15,27924,539],{"className":27925},[67,68,947],[15,27927,27929],{"className":27928},[918],[15,27930,27932],{"className":27931},[922],[15,27933,27935],{"className":27934},[927],[15,27936,27938],{"className":27937,"style":26523},[931],[15,27939,27940,27943],{"style":26526},[15,27941],{"className":27942,"style":18384},[939],[15,27944,27946],{"className":27945},[944,18388,15064,947],[15,27947,26364],{"className":27948},[1646,947],[15,27950,955],{"className":27951},[954],[15,27953,27955],{"className":27954},[927],[15,27956,27958],{"className":27957,"style":962},[931],[15,27959],{}," 变为 ",[15,27962,27964,27981],{"className":27963,"translate":19},[18],[15,27965,27967],{"className":27966},[23],[25,27968,27969],{"xmlns":27},[29,27970,27971,27979],{},[32,27972,27973],{},[863,27974,27975,27977],{},[35,27976,9452],{},[35,27978,539],{},[47,27980,18160],{"encoding":49},[15,27982,27984],{"className":27983,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,27985,27987,27990],{"className":27986},[58],[15,27988],{"className":27989,"style":1863},[62],[15,27991,27993,27996],{"className":27992},[67],[15,27994,9452],{"className":27995,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,27997,27999],{"className":27998},[918],[15,28000,28002,28022],{"className":28001},[922,923],[15,28003,28005,28019],{"className":28004},[927],[15,28006,28008],{"className":28007,"style":932},[931],[15,28009,28010,28013],{"style":2581},[15,28011],{"className":28012,"style":940},[939],[15,28014,28016],{"className":28015},[944,945,946,947],[15,28017,539],{"className":28018},[67,68,947],[15,28020,955],{"className":28021},[954],[15,28023,28025],{"className":28024},[927],[15,28026,28028],{"className":28027,"style":962},[931],[15,28029],{}," 所贡献的间接部分。",[11,28032,28033,28034,28192,28193,28221,28222,431,28272,28353],{},"需要特别注意，",[305,28035,28036,28191],{},[15,28037,28039,28070],{"className":28038,"translate":19},[18],[15,28040,28042],{"className":28041},[23],[25,28043,28044],{"xmlns":27},[29,28045,28046,28068],{},[32,28047,28048],{},[863,28049,28050,28052],{},[35,28051,45],{},[32,28053,28054,28056,28058],{},[35,28055,539],{},[39,28057,42],{"separator":41},[863,28059,28060,28062],{},[35,28061,9452],{},[872,28063,28064,28066],{},[35,28065,539],{},[39,28067,26364],{},[47,28069,27420],{"encoding":49},[15,28071,28073],{"className":28072,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,28074,28076,28079],{"className":28075},[58],[15,28077],{"className":28078,"style":27430},[62],[15,28080,28082,28085],{"className":28081},[67],[15,28083,45],{"className":28084,"style":82},[67,68],[15,28086,28088],{"className":28087},[918],[15,28089,28091,28183],{"className":28090},[922,923],[15,28092,28094,28180],{"className":28093},[927],[15,28095,28097],{"className":28096,"style":7346},[931],[15,28098,28099,28102],{"style":1497},[15,28100],{"className":28101,"style":940},[939],[15,28103,28105],{"className":28104},[944,945,946,947],[15,28106,28108,28111,28114],{"className":28107},[67,947],[15,28109,539],{"className":28110},[67,68,947],[15,28112,42],{"className":28113},[73,947],[15,28115,28117,28120],{"className":28116},[67,947],[15,28118,9452],{"className":28119,"style":2566},[67,68,947],[15,28121,28123],{"className":28122},[918],[15,28124,28126,28172],{"className":28125},[922,923],[15,28127,28129,28169],{"className":28128},[927],[15,28130,28132],{"className":28131,"style":18644},[931],[15,28133,28134,28137],{"style":26964},[15,28135],{"className":28136,"style":26968},[939],[15,28138,28140],{"className":28139},[944,18388,15064,947],[15,28141,28143],{"className":28142},[67,947],[15,28144,28146,28149],{"className":28145},[67,947],[15,28147,539],{"className":28148},[67,68,947],[15,28150,28152],{"className":28151},[918],[15,28153,28155],{"className":28154},[922],[15,28156,28158],{"className":28157},[927],[15,28159,28161],{"className":28160,"style":26993},[931],[15,28162,28163,28166],{"style":26996},[15,28164],{"className":28165,"style":18384},[939],[15,28167,26364],{"className":28168},[1646,947],[15,28170,955],{"className":28171},[954],[15,28173,28175],{"className":28174},[927],[15,28176,28178],{"className":28177,"style":27012},[931],[15,28179],{},[15,28181,955],{"className":28182},[954],[15,28184,28186],{"className":28185},[927],[15,28187,28189],{"className":28188,"style":27024},[931],[15,28190],{}," 是一个跨世界（cross-world）量","：它在同一个个体 ",[15,28194,28196,28209],{"className":28195,"translate":19},[18],[15,28197,28199],{"className":28198},[23],[25,28200,28201],{"xmlns":27},[29,28202,28203,28207],{},[32,28204,28205],{},[35,28206,13753],{},[47,28208,13753],{"encoding":49},[15,28210,28212],{"className":28211,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,28213,28215,28218],{"className":28214},[58],[15,28216],{"className":28217,"style":635},[62],[15,28219,13753],{"className":28220},[67,68]," 上同时引用了 ",[15,28223,28225,28242],{"className":28224,"translate":19},[18],[15,28226,28228],{"className":28227},[23],[25,28229,28230],{"xmlns":27},[29,28231,28232,28240],{},[32,28233,28234,28236,28238],{},[35,28235,37],{},[39,28237,602],{},[35,28239,539],{},[47,28241,607],{"encoding":49},[15,28243,28245,28263],{"className":28244,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,28246,28248,28251,28254,28257,28260],{"className":28247},[58],[15,28249],{"className":28250,"style":299},[62],[15,28252,37],{"className":28253,"style":69},[67,68],[15,28255],{"className":28256,"style":199},[77],[15,28258,602],{"className":28259},[203],[15,28261],{"className":28262,"style":199},[77],[15,28264,28266,28269],{"className":28265},[58],[15,28267],{"className":28268,"style":635},[62],[15,28270,539],{"className":28271},[67,68],[15,28273,28275,28297],{"className":28274,"translate":19},[18],[15,28276,28278],{"className":28277},[23],[25,28279,28280],{"xmlns":27},[29,28281,28282,28294],{},[32,28283,28284,28286,28288],{},[35,28285,37],{},[39,28287,602],{},[872,28289,28290,28292],{},[35,28291,539],{},[39,28293,26364],{},[47,28295,28296],{"encoding":49},"X=x^*",[15,28298,28300,28318],{"className":28299,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,28301,28303,28306,28309,28312,28315],{"className":28302},[58],[15,28304],{"className":28305,"style":299},[62],[15,28307,37],{"className":28308,"style":69},[67,68],[15,28310],{"className":28311,"style":199},[77],[15,28313,602],{"className":28314},[203],[15,28316],{"className":28317,"style":199},[77],[15,28319,28321,28324],{"className":28320},[58],[15,28322],{"className":28323,"style":26609},[62],[15,28325,28327,28330],{"className":28326},[67],[15,28328,539],{"className":28329},[67,68],[15,28331,28333],{"className":28332},[918],[15,28334,28336],{"className":28335},[922],[15,28337,28339],{"className":28338},[927],[15,28340,28342],{"className":28341,"style":26609},[931],[15,28343,28344,28347],{"style":1002},[15,28345],{"className":28346,"style":940},[939],[15,28348,28350],{"className":28349},[944,945,946,947],[15,28351,26364],{"className":28352},[1646,947]," 这两个互不相容的世界。因此中介分析在本质上属于第三层而非第二层——这也解释了为什么中介效应长期以来被认为是不可识别的。",[11,28355,28356,28359],{},[305,28357,28358],{},"可识别性条件（序贯可忽略性）","：要使 NDE 与 NIE 可由观测数据估计，需要同时满足",[7909,28361,28362,28449,28536,28622],{},[510,28363,28364,431,28392,28420,28421,6820],{},[15,28365,28367,28380],{"className":28366,"translate":19},[18],[15,28368,28370],{"className":28369},[23],[25,28371,28372],{"xmlns":27},[29,28373,28374,28378],{},[32,28375,28376],{},[35,28377,37],{},[47,28379,37],{"encoding":49},[15,28381,28383],{"className":28382,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,28384,28386,28389],{"className":28385},[58],[15,28387],{"className":28388,"style":299},[62],[15,28390,37],{"className":28391,"style":69},[67,68],[15,28393,28395,28408],{"className":28394,"translate":19},[18],[15,28396,28398],{"className":28397},[23],[25,28399,28400],{"xmlns":27},[29,28401,28402,28406],{},[32,28403,28404],{},[35,28405,45],{},[47,28407,45],{"encoding":49},[15,28409,28411],{"className":28410,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,28412,28414,28417],{"className":28413},[58],[15,28415],{"className":28416,"style":299},[62],[15,28418,45],{"className":28419,"style":82},[67,68]," 之间无未观测混杂（给定协变量 ",[15,28422,28424,28437],{"className":28423,"translate":19},[18],[15,28425,28427],{"className":28426},[23],[25,28428,28429],{"xmlns":27},[29,28430,28431,28435],{},[32,28432,28433],{},[35,28434,3785],{},[47,28436,3785],{"encoding":49},[15,28438,28440],{"className":28439,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,28441,28443,28446],{"className":28442},[58],[15,28444],{"className":28445,"style":299},[62],[15,28447,3785],{"className":28448,"style":128},[67,68],[510,28450,28451,431,28479,28507,28508,6820],{},[15,28452,28454,28467],{"className":28453,"translate":19},[18],[15,28455,28457],{"className":28456},[23],[25,28458,28459],{"xmlns":27},[29,28460,28461,28465],{},[32,28462,28463],{},[35,28464,9452],{},[47,28466,9452],{"encoding":49},[15,28468,28470],{"className":28469,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,28471,28473,28476],{"className":28472},[58],[15,28474],{"className":28475,"style":299},[62],[15,28477,9452],{"className":28478,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,28480,28482,28495],{"className":28481,"translate":19},[18],[15,28483,28485],{"className":28484},[23],[25,28486,28487],{"xmlns":27},[29,28488,28489,28493],{},[32,28490,28491],{},[35,28492,45],{},[47,28494,45],{"encoding":49},[15,28496,28498],{"className":28497,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,28499,28501,28504],{"className":28500},[58],[15,28502],{"className":28503,"style":299},[62],[15,28505,45],{"className":28506,"style":82},[67,68]," 之间无未观测混杂（给定 ",[15,28509,28511,28524],{"className":28510,"translate":19},[18],[15,28512,28514],{"className":28513},[23],[25,28515,28516],{"xmlns":27},[29,28517,28518,28522],{},[32,28519,28520],{},[35,28521,3785],{},[47,28523,3785],{"encoding":49},[15,28525,28527],{"className":28526,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,28528,28530,28533],{"className":28529},[58],[15,28531],{"className":28532,"style":299},[62],[15,28534,3785],{"className":28535,"style":128},[67,68],[510,28537,28538,431,28566,28507,28594,6820],{},[15,28539,28541,28554],{"className":28540,"translate":19},[18],[15,28542,28544],{"className":28543},[23],[25,28545,28546],{"xmlns":27},[29,28547,28548,28552],{},[32,28549,28550],{},[35,28551,37],{},[47,28553,37],{"encoding":49},[15,28555,28557],{"className":28556,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,28558,28560,28563],{"className":28559},[58],[15,28561],{"className":28562,"style":299},[62],[15,28564,37],{"className":28565,"style":69},[67,68],[15,28567,28569,28582],{"className":28568,"translate":19},[18],[15,28570,28572],{"className":28571},[23],[25,28573,28574],{"xmlns":27},[29,28575,28576,28580],{},[32,28577,28578],{},[35,28579,9452],{},[47,28581,9452],{"encoding":49},[15,28583,28585],{"className":28584,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,28586,28588,28591],{"className":28587},[58],[15,28589],{"className":28590,"style":299},[62],[15,28592,9452],{"className":28593,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,28595,28597,28610],{"className":28596,"translate":19},[18],[15,28598,28600],{"className":28599},[23],[25,28601,28602],{"xmlns":27},[29,28603,28604,28608],{},[32,28605,28606],{},[35,28607,3785],{},[47,28609,3785],{"encoding":49},[15,28611,28613],{"className":28612,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,28614,28616,28619],{"className":28615},[58],[15,28617],{"className":28618,"style":299},[62],[15,28620,3785],{"className":28621,"style":128},[67,68],[510,28623,28624,431,28652,28680,28681,28709],{},[15,28625,28627,28640],{"className":28626,"translate":19},[18],[15,28628,28630],{"className":28629},[23],[25,28631,28632],{"xmlns":27},[29,28633,28634,28638],{},[32,28635,28636],{},[35,28637,9452],{},[47,28639,9452],{"encoding":49},[15,28641,28643],{"className":28642,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,28644,28646,28649],{"className":28645},[58],[15,28647],{"className":28648,"style":299},[62],[15,28650,9452],{"className":28651,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,28653,28655,28668],{"className":28654,"translate":19},[18],[15,28656,28658],{"className":28657},[23],[25,28659,28660],{"xmlns":27},[29,28661,28662,28666],{},[32,28663,28664],{},[35,28665,45],{},[47,28667,45],{"encoding":49},[15,28669,28671],{"className":28670,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,28672,28674,28677],{"className":28673},[58],[15,28675],{"className":28676,"style":299},[62],[15,28678,45],{"className":28679,"style":82},[67,68]," 之间不存在受 ",[15,28682,28684,28697],{"className":28683,"translate":19},[18],[15,28685,28687],{"className":28686},[23],[25,28688,28689],{"xmlns":27},[29,28690,28691,28695],{},[32,28692,28693],{},[35,28694,37],{},[47,28696,37],{"encoding":49},[15,28698,28700],{"className":28699,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,28701,28703,28706],{"className":28702},[58],[15,28704],{"className":28705,"style":299},[62],[15,28707,37],{"className":28708,"style":69},[67,68]," 影响的混杂因子。",[11,28711,28712,28713,28716,28717,29145,29146,29244],{},"其中第 4 条最容易被忽略，也最强：它要求中介与结果之间不能存在被处理变量触及的共同原因。四条合称",[305,28714,28715],{},"序贯可忽略性（sequential ignorability）","。在此条件下，自然直接效应可由观测分布表达为\n",[15,28718,28720,28834],{"className":28719,"translate":19},[18],[15,28721,28723],{"className":28722},[23],[25,28724,28725],{"xmlns":27},[29,28726,28727,28831],{},[32,28728,28729,28737,28739,28752,28755,28757,28759,28761,28763,28765,28767,28769,28771,28773,28775,28777,28779,28781,28783,28785,28791,28793,28795,28797,28799,28801,28803,28805,28807,28809,28811,28817,28819,28821,28823,28825,28827,28829],{},[32,28730,28731,28733,28735],{},[35,28732,26690],{"mathvariant":878},[35,28734,26693],{"mathvariant":878},[35,28736,1346],{"mathvariant":878},[39,28738,602],{},[863,28740,28741,28743],{},[39,28742,20386],{},[32,28744,28745,28747,28749],{},[35,28746,9594],{},[39,28748,42],{"separator":41},[35,28750,28751],{},"w",[39,28753,13793],{"fence":101,"stretchy":41,"minsize":28754,"maxsize":28754},"1.8em",[35,28756,1346],{"mathvariant":13790},[39,28758,13793],{"stretchy":101},[35,28760,45],{},[39,28762,170],{},[35,28764,539],{},[39,28766,42],{"separator":41},[35,28768,9594],{},[39,28770,42],{"separator":41},[35,28772,28751],{},[39,28774,13802],{"stretchy":101},[39,28776,14210],{},[35,28778,1346],{"mathvariant":13790},[39,28780,13793],{"stretchy":101},[35,28782,45],{},[39,28784,170],{},[872,28786,28787,28789],{},[35,28788,539],{},[39,28790,26364],{},[39,28792,42],{"separator":41},[35,28794,9594],{},[39,28796,42],{"separator":41},[35,28798,28751],{},[39,28800,13802],{"stretchy":101},[39,28802,13802],{"fence":101,"stretchy":41,"minsize":28754,"maxsize":28754},[35,28804,98],{},[39,28806,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,28808,9594],{},[39,28810,170],{},[872,28812,28813,28815],{},[35,28814,539],{},[39,28816,26364],{},[39,28818,42],{"separator":41},[35,28820,28751],{},[39,28822,111],{"stretchy":101},[35,28824,98],{},[39,28826,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,28828,28751],{},[39,28830,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,28832,28833],{"encoding":49},"\\mathrm{NDE} = \\sum_{m, w}\\Big[\\mathbb{E}[Y \\mid x, m, w] - \\mathbb{E}[Y \\mid x^*, m, w]\\Big] P(m \\mid x^*, w) P(w)",[15,28835,28837,28858,28943,28982,29006,29086],{"className":28836,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,28838,28840,28843,28849,28852,28855],{"className":28839},[58],[15,28841],{"className":28842,"style":299},[62],[15,28844,28846],{"className":28845},[67],[15,28847,26842],{"className":28848},[67,10365],[15,28850],{"className":28851,"style":199},[77],[15,28853,602],{"className":28854},[203],[15,28856],{"className":28857,"style":199},[77],[15,28859,28861,28865,28915,28918,28925,28928,28931,28934,28937,28940],{"className":28860},[58],[15,28862],{"className":28863,"style":28864},[62],"height:1.8em;vertical-align:-0.65em;",[15,28866,28868,28871],{"className":28867},[12747],[15,28869,20386],{"className":28870,"style":12753},[12747,12751,12752],[15,28872,28874],{"className":28873},[918],[15,28875,28877,28907],{"className":28876},[922,923],[15,28878,28880,28904],{"className":28879},[927],[15,28881,28883],{"className":28882,"style":20583},[931],[15,28884,28885,28888],{"style":12769},[15,28886],{"className":28887,"style":940},[939],[15,28889,28891],{"className":28890},[944,945,946,947],[15,28892,28894,28897,28900],{"className":28893},[67,947],[15,28895,9594],{"className":28896},[67,68,947],[15,28898,42],{"className":28899},[73,947],[15,28901,28751],{"className":28902,"style":28903},[67,68,947],"margin-right:0.0269em;",[15,28905,955],{"className":28906},[954],[15,28908,28910],{"className":28909},[927],[15,28911,28913],{"className":28912,"style":19241},[931],[15,28914],{},[15,28916],{"className":28917,"style":78},[77],[15,28919,28921],{"className":28920},[67],[15,28922,13793],{"className":28923},[15063,28924],"size2",[15,28926,1346],{"className":28927},[67,26404],[15,28929,13793],{"className":28930},[132],[15,28932,45],{"className":28933,"style":82},[67,68],[15,28935],{"className":28936,"style":199},[77],[15,28938,170],{"className":28939},[203],[15,28941],{"className":28942,"style":199},[77],[15,28944,28946,28949,28952,28955,28958,28961,28964,28967,28970,28973,28976,28979],{"className":28945},[58],[15,28947],{"className":28948,"style":124},[62],[15,28950,539],{"className":28951},[67,68],[15,28953,42],{"className":28954},[73],[15,28956],{"className":28957,"style":78},[77],[15,28959,9594],{"className":28960},[67,68],[15,28962,42],{"className":28963},[73],[15,28965],{"className":28966,"style":78},[77],[15,28968,28751],{"className":28969,"style":28903},[67,68],[15,28971,13802],{"className":28972},[148],[15,28974],{"className":28975,"style":82},[77],[15,28977,14210],{"className":28978},[1646],[15,28980],{"className":28981,"style":82},[77],[15,28983,28985,28988,28991,28994,28997,29000,29003],{"className":28984},[58],[15,28986],{"className":28987,"style":124},[62],[15,28989,1346],{"className":28990},[67,26404],[15,28992,13793],{"className":28993},[132],[15,28995,45],{"className":28996,"style":82},[67,68],[15,28998],{"className":28999,"style":199},[77],[15,29001,170],{"className":29002},[203],[15,29004],{"className":29005,"style":199},[77],[15,29007,29009,29012,29041,29044,29047,29050,29053,29056,29059,29062,29068,29071,29074,29077,29080,29083],{"className":29008},[58],[15,29010],{"className":29011,"style":28864},[62],[15,29013,29015,29018],{"className":29014},[67],[15,29016,539],{"className":29017},[67,68],[15,29019,29021],{"className":29020},[918],[15,29022,29024],{"className":29023},[922],[15,29025,29027],{"className":29026},[927],[15,29028,29030],{"className":29029,"style":26609},[931],[15,29031,29032,29035],{"style":1002},[15,29033],{"className":29034,"style":940},[939],[15,29036,29038],{"className":29037},[944,945,946,947],[15,29039,26364],{"className":29040},[1646,947],[15,29042,42],{"className":29043},[73],[15,29045],{"className":29046,"style":78},[77],[15,29048,9594],{"className":29049},[67,68],[15,29051,42],{"className":29052},[73],[15,29054],{"className":29055,"style":78},[77],[15,29057,28751],{"className":29058,"style":28903},[67,68],[15,29060,13802],{"className":29061},[148],[15,29063,29065],{"className":29064},[67],[15,29066,13802],{"className":29067},[15063,28924],[15,29069,98],{"className":29070,"style":128},[67,68],[15,29072,102],{"className":29073},[132],[15,29075,9594],{"className":29076},[67,68],[15,29078],{"className":29079,"style":199},[77],[15,29081,170],{"className":29082},[203],[15,29084],{"className":29085,"style":199},[77],[15,29087,29089,29092,29121,29124,29127,29130,29133,29136,29139,29142],{"className":29088},[58],[15,29090],{"className":29091,"style":124},[62],[15,29093,29095,29098],{"className":29094},[67],[15,29096,539],{"className":29097},[67,68],[15,29099,29101],{"className":29100},[918],[15,29102,29104],{"className":29103},[922],[15,29105,29107],{"className":29106},[927],[15,29108,29110],{"className":29109,"style":26609},[931],[15,29111,29112,29115],{"style":1002},[15,29113],{"className":29114,"style":940},[939],[15,29116,29118],{"className":29117},[944,945,946,947],[15,29119,26364],{"className":29120},[1646,947],[15,29122,42],{"className":29123},[73],[15,29125],{"className":29126,"style":78},[77],[15,29128,28751],{"className":29129,"style":28903},[67,68],[15,29131,111],{"className":29132},[148],[15,29134,98],{"className":29135,"style":128},[67,68],[15,29137,102],{"className":29138},[132],[15,29140,28751],{"className":29141,"style":28903},[67,68],[15,29143,111],{"className":29144},[148],"\n自然间接效应则相应地由 ",[15,29147,29149,29187],{"className":29148,"translate":19},[18],[15,29150,29152],{"className":29151},[23],[25,29153,29154],{"xmlns":27},[29,29155,29156,29184],{},[32,29157,29158,29166,29168,29174,29176],{},[32,29159,29160,29162,29164],{},[35,29161,26690],{"mathvariant":878},[35,29163,16645],{"mathvariant":878},[35,29165,1346],{"mathvariant":878},[39,29167,602],{},[32,29169,29170,29172],{},[35,29171,26331],{"mathvariant":878},[35,29173,1346],{"mathvariant":878},[39,29175,14210],{},[32,29177,29178,29180,29182],{},[35,29179,26690],{"mathvariant":878},[35,29181,26693],{"mathvariant":878},[35,29183,1346],{"mathvariant":878},[47,29185,29186],{"encoding":49},"\\mathrm{NIE} = \\mathrm{TE} - \\mathrm{NDE}",[15,29188,29190,29211,29232],{"className":29189,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,29191,29193,29196,29202,29205,29208],{"className":29192},[58],[15,29194],{"className":29195,"style":299},[62],[15,29197,29199],{"className":29198},[67],[15,29200,27138],{"className":29201},[67,10365],[15,29203],{"className":29204,"style":199},[77],[15,29206,602],{"className":29207},[203],[15,29209],{"className":29210,"style":199},[77],[15,29212,29214,29217,29223,29226,29229],{"className":29213},[58],[15,29215],{"className":29216,"style":1636},[62],[15,29218,29220],{"className":29219},[67],[15,29221,26385],{"className":29222},[67,10365],[15,29224],{"className":29225,"style":82},[77],[15,29227,14210],{"className":29228},[1646],[15,29230],{"className":29231,"style":82},[77],[15,29233,29235,29238],{"className":29234},[58],[15,29236],{"className":29237,"style":299},[62],[15,29239,29241],{"className":29240},[67],[15,29242,26842],{"className":29243},[67,10365]," 给出。",[11,29246,29247,29250,29251,29324,29325,29353,29354,29382,29383,29386,29387,29390,29391,29419,29420,29448,29449,29477,29478,29550,29551,29579,29580,29631,29632,29660],{},[305,29248,29249],{},"回到例 1.2 的告诫","：实践中极易发生的一种错误，是把中介当作普通协变量放进回归模型 ",[15,29252,29254,29276],{"className":29253,"translate":19},[18],[15,29255,29257],{"className":29256},[23],[25,29258,29259],{"xmlns":27},[29,29260,29261,29273],{},[32,29262,29263,29265,29267,29269,29271],{},[35,29264,45],{},[39,29266,13735],{},[35,29268,37],{},[39,29270,2890],{},[35,29272,9452],{},[47,29274,29275],{"encoding":49},"Y \\sim X + M",[15,29277,29279,29297,29315],{"className":29278,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,29280,29282,29285,29288,29291,29294],{"className":29281},[58],[15,29283],{"className":29284,"style":299},[62],[15,29286,45],{"className":29287,"style":82},[67,68],[15,29289],{"className":29290,"style":199},[77],[15,29292,13735],{"className":29293},[203],[15,29295],{"className":29296,"style":199},[77],[15,29298,29300,29303,29306,29309,29312],{"className":29299},[58],[15,29301],{"className":29302,"style":1636},[62],[15,29304,37],{"className":29305,"style":69},[67,68],[15,29307],{"className":29308,"style":82},[77],[15,29310,2890],{"className":29311},[1646],[15,29313],{"className":29314,"style":82},[77],[15,29316,29318,29321],{"className":29317},[58],[15,29319],{"className":29320,"style":299},[62],[15,29322,9452],{"className":29323,"style":2566},[67,68],"，再把 ",[15,29326,29328,29341],{"className":29327,"translate":19},[18],[15,29329,29331],{"className":29330},[23],[25,29332,29333],{"xmlns":27},[29,29334,29335,29339],{},[32,29336,29337],{},[35,29338,37],{},[47,29340,37],{"encoding":49},[15,29342,29344],{"className":29343,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,29345,29347,29350],{"className":29346},[58],[15,29348],{"className":29349,"style":299},[62],[15,29351,37],{"className":29352,"style":69},[67,68]," 的系数解释为「",[15,29355,29357,29370],{"className":29356,"translate":19},[18],[15,29358,29360],{"className":29359},[23],[25,29361,29362],{"xmlns":27},[29,29363,29364,29368],{},[32,29365,29366],{},[35,29367,37],{},[47,29369,37],{"encoding":49},[15,29371,29373],{"className":29372,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,29374,29376,29379],{"className":29375},[58],[15,29377],{"className":29378,"style":299},[62],[15,29380,37],{"className":29381,"style":69},[67,68]," 的效应」。由上述分解立即可见，这样做得到的其实只是",[305,29384,29385],{},"直接效应"," NDE，它系统性地",[305,29388,29389],{},"遗漏","了经由 ",[15,29392,29394,29407],{"className":29393,"translate":19},[18],[15,29395,29397],{"className":29396},[23],[25,29398,29399],{"xmlns":27},[29,29400,29401,29405],{},[32,29402,29403],{},[35,29404,9452],{},[47,29406,9452],{"encoding":49},[15,29408,29410],{"className":29409,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,29411,29413,29416],{"className":29412},[58],[15,29414],{"className":29415,"style":299},[62],[15,29417,9452],{"className":29418,"style":2566},[67,68]," 传递的间接部分，因而会低估 ",[15,29421,29423,29436],{"className":29422,"translate":19},[18],[15,29424,29426],{"className":29425},[23],[25,29427,29428],{"xmlns":27},[29,29429,29430,29434],{},[32,29431,29432],{},[35,29433,37],{},[47,29435,37],{"encoding":49},[15,29437,29439],{"className":29438,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,29440,29442,29445],{"className":29441},[58],[15,29443],{"className":29444,"style":299},[62],[15,29446,37],{"className":29447,"style":69},[67,68]," 的总效应。而当「控制 ",[15,29450,29452,29465],{"className":29451,"translate":19},[18],[15,29453,29455],{"className":29454},[23],[25,29456,29457],{"xmlns":27},[29,29458,29459,29463],{},[32,29460,29461],{},[35,29462,9452],{},[47,29464,9452],{"encoding":49},[15,29466,29468],{"className":29467,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,29469,29471,29474],{"className":29470},[58],[15,29472],{"className":29473,"style":299},[62],[15,29475,9452],{"className":29476,"style":2566},[67,68],"」的动机恰恰是「我想排除混杂」时，这一操作等于是把待估计的那条因果通道本身切断了——这是链结构在实践中最重要的一个陷阱。即便只想得到 NDE，也仍然需要上述四条假设；只有在线性且无交互的特殊情形下，",[15,29479,29481,29502],{"className":29480,"translate":19},[18],[15,29482,29484],{"className":29483},[23],[25,29485,29486],{"xmlns":27},[29,29487,29488,29500],{},[32,29489,29490,29492,29494,29496,29498],{},[35,29491,45],{},[39,29493,13735],{},[35,29495,37],{},[39,29497,2890],{},[35,29499,9452],{},[47,29501,29275],{"encoding":49},[15,29503,29505,29523,29541],{"className":29504,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,29506,29508,29511,29514,29517,29520],{"className":29507},[58],[15,29509],{"className":29510,"style":299},[62],[15,29512,45],{"className":29513,"style":82},[67,68],[15,29515],{"className":29516,"style":199},[77],[15,29518,13735],{"className":29519},[203],[15,29521],{"className":29522,"style":199},[77],[15,29524,29526,29529,29532,29535,29538],{"className":29525},[58],[15,29527],{"className":29528,"style":1636},[62],[15,29530,37],{"className":29531,"style":69},[67,68],[15,29533],{"className":29534,"style":82},[77],[15,29536,2890],{"className":29537},[1646],[15,29539],{"className":29540,"style":82},[77],[15,29542,29544,29547],{"className":29543},[58],[15,29545],{"className":29546,"style":299},[62],[15,29548,9452],{"className":29549,"style":2566},[67,68]," 中 ",[15,29552,29554,29567],{"className":29553,"translate":19},[18],[15,29555,29557],{"className":29556},[23],[25,29558,29559],{"xmlns":27},[29,29560,29561,29565],{},[32,29562,29563],{},[35,29564,37],{},[47,29566,37],{"encoding":49},[15,29568,29570],{"className":29569,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,29571,29573,29576],{"className":29572},[58],[15,29574],{"className":29575,"style":299},[62],[15,29577,37],{"className":29578,"style":69},[67,68]," 的系数才恰好等于 NDE，一旦存在 ",[15,29581,29583,29601],{"className":29582,"translate":19},[18],[15,29584,29586],{"className":29585},[23],[25,29587,29588],{"xmlns":27},[29,29589,29590,29598],{},[32,29591,29592,29594,29596],{},[35,29593,37],{},[39,29595,1602],{},[35,29597,9452],{},[47,29599,29600],{"encoding":49},"X \\times M",[15,29602,29604,29622],{"className":29603,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,29605,29607,29610,29613,29616,29619],{"className":29606},[58],[15,29608],{"className":29609,"style":1636},[62],[15,29611,37],{"className":29612,"style":69},[67,68],[15,29614],{"className":29615,"style":82},[77],[15,29617,1602],{"className":29618},[1646],[15,29620],{"className":29621,"style":82},[77],[15,29623,29625,29628],{"className":29624},[58],[15,29626],{"className":29627,"style":299},[62],[15,29629,9452],{"className":29630,"style":2566},[67,68]," 交互或 ",[15,29633,29635,29648],{"className":29634,"translate":19},[18],[15,29636,29638],{"className":29637},[23],[25,29639,29640],{"xmlns":27},[29,29641,29642,29646],{},[32,29643,29644],{},[35,29645,9452],{},[47,29647,9452],{"encoding":49},[15,29649,29651],{"className":29650,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,29652,29654,29657],{"className":29653},[58],[15,29655],{"className":29656,"style":299},[62],[15,29658,9452],{"className":29659,"style":2566},[67,68]," 进入非线性的函数形式，该系数便失去直接效应的解释。",[1309,29662,29664],{"id":29663},"_35-可识别性do-演算后门准则与前门准则","3.5 可识别性：do-演算、后门准则与前门准则",[11,29666,29667,29668,29750,29751,2247],{},"在实践中，我们通常只有观测数据（第一层），希望知道某个干预量 ",[15,29669,29671,29702],{"className":29670,"translate":19},[18],[15,29672,29674],{"className":29673},[23],[25,29675,29676],{"xmlns":27},[29,29677,29678,29700],{},[32,29679,29680,29682,29684,29686,29688,29690,29692,29694,29696,29698],{},[35,29681,98],{},[39,29683,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,29685,534],{},[39,29687,170],{},[35,29689,696],{},[35,29691,699],{},[39,29693,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,29695,539],{},[39,29697,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,29699,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,29701,710],{"encoding":49},[15,29703,29705,29729],{"className":29704,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,29706,29708,29711,29714,29717,29720,29723,29726],{"className":29707},[58],[15,29709],{"className":29710,"style":124},[62],[15,29712,98],{"className":29713,"style":128},[67,68],[15,29715,102],{"className":29716},[132],[15,29718,534],{"className":29719,"style":563},[67,68],[15,29721],{"className":29722,"style":199},[77],[15,29724,170],{"className":29725},[203],[15,29727],{"className":29728,"style":199},[77],[15,29730,29732,29735,29738,29741,29744,29747],{"className":29731},[58],[15,29733],{"className":29734,"style":124},[62],[15,29736,696],{"className":29737},[67,68],[15,29739,699],{"className":29740},[67,68],[15,29742,102],{"className":29743},[132],[15,29745,539],{"className":29746},[67,68],[15,29748,759],{"className":29749},[148],"（第二层）能否用观测分布中的量表达出来，这一问题称为**可识别性（identifiability）**问题。Pearl 给出了一套完全在图的层面运作的工具：它只需要因果图本身，",[305,29752,29753,29754],{},"不需要知道任何结构方程的具体函数形式 ",[15,29755,29757,29774],{"className":29756,"translate":19},[18],[15,29758,29760],{"className":29759},[23],[25,29761,29762],{"xmlns":27},[29,29763,29764,29772],{},[32,29765,29766],{},[863,29767,29768,29770],{},[35,29769,5717],{},[35,29771,1680],{},[47,29773,10112],{"encoding":49},[15,29775,29777],{"className":29776,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,29778,29780,29783],{"className":29779},[58],[15,29781],{"className":29782,"style":4446},[62],[15,29784,29786,29789],{"className":29785},[67],[15,29787,5717],{"className":29788,"style":5765},[67,68],[15,29790,29792],{"className":29791},[918],[15,29793,29795,29815],{"className":29794},[922,923],[15,29796,29798,29812],{"className":29797},[927],[15,29799,29801],{"className":29800,"style":1731},[931],[15,29802,29803,29806],{"style":10006},[15,29804],{"className":29805,"style":940},[939],[15,29807,29809],{"className":29808},[944,945,946,947],[15,29810,1680],{"className":29811},[67,68,947],[15,29813,955],{"className":29814},[954],[15,29816,29818],{"className":29817},[927],[15,29819,29821],{"className":29820,"style":962},[931],[15,29822],{},[11,29824,29825,29826,29930,29931,29959,29960,29988,29989,30113,30114,30142,30143,2031,30187,30215,30216,30244],{},"记 ",[15,29827,29829,29850],{"className":29828,"translate":19},[18],[15,29830,29832],{"className":29831},[23],[25,29833,29834],{"xmlns":27},[29,29835,29836,29848],{},[32,29837,29838],{},[863,29839,29840,29842],{},[35,29841,1334],{},[18606,29843,29844,29846],{"accent":41},[35,29845,37],{},[39,29847,18612],{"stretchy":41},[47,29849,18615],{"encoding":49},[15,29851,29853],{"className":29852,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,29854,29856,29859],{"className":29855},[58],[15,29857],{"className":29858,"style":18625},[62],[15,29860,29862,29865],{"className":29861},[67],[15,29863,1334],{"className":29864},[67,68],[15,29866,29868],{"className":29867},[918],[15,29869,29871,29922],{"className":29870},[922,923],[15,29872,29874,29919],{"className":29873},[927],[15,29875,29877],{"className":29876,"style":18644},[931],[15,29878,29879,29882],{"style":18647},[15,29880],{"className":29881,"style":18651},[939],[15,29883,29885],{"className":29884},[944,945,946,947],[15,29886,29888],{"className":29887},[67,947],[15,29889,29891],{"className":29890},[67,18661,947],[15,29892,29894],{"className":29893},[922],[15,29895,29897],{"className":29896},[927],[15,29898,29900,29911],{"className":29899,"style":18671},[931],[15,29901,29902,29905],{"style":18674},[15,29903],{"className":29904,"style":18651},[939],[15,29906,29908],{"className":29907},[67,947],[15,29909,37],{"className":29910,"style":69},[67,68,947],[15,29912,29913,29916],{"style":18686},[15,29914],{"className":29915,"style":18651},[939],[15,29917],{"className":29918,"style":18694},[18693,947],[15,29920,955],{"className":29921},[954],[15,29923,29925],{"className":29924},[927],[15,29926,29928],{"className":29927,"style":18704},[931],[15,29929],{}," 为从 ",[15,29932,29934,29947],{"className":29933,"translate":19},[18],[15,29935,29937],{"className":29936},[23],[25,29938,29939],{"xmlns":27},[29,29940,29941,29945],{},[32,29942,29943],{},[35,29944,1334],{},[47,29946,1334],{"encoding":49},[15,29948,29950],{"className":29949,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,29951,29953,29956],{"className":29952},[58],[15,29954],{"className":29955,"style":299},[62],[15,29957,1334],{"className":29958},[67,68]," 中删去所有指向 ",[15,29961,29963,29976],{"className":29962,"translate":19},[18],[15,29964,29966],{"className":29965},[23],[25,29967,29968],{"xmlns":27},[29,29969,29970,29974],{},[32,29971,29972],{},[35,29973,37],{},[47,29975,37],{"encoding":49},[15,29977,29979],{"className":29978,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,29980,29982,29985],{"className":29981},[58],[15,29983],{"className":29984,"style":299},[62],[15,29986,37],{"className":29987,"style":69},[67,68]," 的边所得的图，",[15,29990,29992,30015],{"className":29991,"translate":19},[18],[15,29993,29995],{"className":29994},[23],[25,29996,29997],{"xmlns":27},[29,29998,29999,30012],{},[32,30000,30001],{},[863,30002,30003,30005],{},[35,30004,1334],{},[30006,30007,30008,30010],"munder",{"accentunder":41},[35,30009,37],{},[39,30011,18612],{"stretchy":41},[47,30013,30014],{"encoding":49},"G_{\\underline{X}}",[15,30016,30018],{"className":30017,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,30019,30021,30025],{"className":30020},[58],[15,30022],{"className":30023,"style":30024},[62],"height:1.0048em;vertical-align:-0.3215em;",[15,30026,30028,30031],{"className":30027},[67],[15,30029,1334],{"className":30030},[67,68],[15,30032,30034],{"className":30033},[918],[15,30035,30037,30104],{"className":30036},[922,923],[15,30038,30040,30101],{"className":30039},[927],[15,30041,30043],{"className":30042,"style":7346},[931],[15,30044,30046,30049],{"style":30045},"top:-2.85em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;",[15,30047],{"className":30048,"style":18651},[939],[15,30050,30052],{"className":30051},[944,945,946,947],[15,30053,30055],{"className":30054},[67,947],[15,30056,30059],{"className":30057},[67,30058,947],"underline",[15,30060,30062,30092],{"className":30061},[922,923],[15,30063,30065,30089],{"className":30064},[927],[15,30066,30068,30078],{"className":30067,"style":299},[931],[15,30069,30071,30074],{"style":30070},"top:-2.804em;",[15,30072],{"className":30073,"style":18651},[939],[15,30075],{"className":30076,"style":18694},[30077,947],"underline-line",[15,30079,30080,30083],{"style":18674},[15,30081],{"className":30082,"style":18651},[939],[15,30084,30086],{"className":30085},[67,947],[15,30087,37],{"className":30088,"style":69},[67,68,947],[15,30090,955],{"className":30091},[954],[15,30093,30095],{"className":30094},[927],[15,30096,30099],{"className":30097,"style":30098},[931],"height:0.245em;",[15,30100],{},[15,30102,955],{"className":30103},[954],[15,30105,30107],{"className":30106},[927],[15,30108,30111],{"className":30109,"style":30110},[931],"height:0.3215em;",[15,30112],{}," 为删去所有从 ",[15,30115,30117,30130],{"className":30116,"translate":19},[18],[15,30118,30120],{"className":30119},[23],[25,30121,30122],{"xmlns":27},[29,30123,30124,30128],{},[32,30125,30126],{},[35,30127,37],{},[47,30129,37],{"encoding":49},[15,30131,30133],{"className":30132,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,30134,30136,30139],{"className":30135},[58],[15,30137],{"className":30138,"style":299},[62],[15,30140,37],{"className":30141,"style":69},[67,68]," 出发的边所得的图，并记 ",[15,30144,30146,30166],{"className":30145,"translate":19},[18],[15,30147,30149],{"className":30148},[23],[25,30150,30151],{"xmlns":27},[29,30152,30153,30163],{},[32,30154,30155,30157,30159,30161],{},[35,30156,4205],{},[39,30158,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,30160,3785],{},[39,30162,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,30164,30165],{"encoding":49},"Z(W)",[15,30167,30169],{"className":30168,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,30170,30172,30175,30178,30181,30184],{"className":30171},[58],[15,30173],{"className":30174,"style":124},[62],[15,30176,4205],{"className":30177,"style":4234},[67,68],[15,30179,102],{"className":30180},[132],[15,30182,3785],{"className":30183,"style":128},[67,68],[15,30185,111],{"className":30186},[148],[15,30188,30190,30203],{"className":30189,"translate":19},[18],[15,30191,30193],{"className":30192},[23],[25,30194,30195],{"xmlns":27},[29,30196,30197,30201],{},[32,30198,30199],{},[35,30200,4205],{},[47,30202,4205],{"encoding":49},[15,30204,30206],{"className":30205,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,30207,30209,30212],{"className":30208},[58],[15,30210],{"className":30211,"style":299},[62],[15,30213,4205],{"className":30214,"style":4234},[67,68]," 中不属于 ",[15,30217,30219,30232],{"className":30218,"translate":19},[18],[15,30220,30222],{"className":30221},[23],[25,30223,30224],{"xmlns":27},[29,30225,30226,30230],{},[32,30227,30228],{},[35,30229,3785],{},[47,30231,3785],{"encoding":49},[15,30233,30235],{"className":30234,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,30236,30238,30241],{"className":30237},[58],[15,30239],{"className":30240,"style":299},[62],[15,30242,3785],{"className":30243,"style":128},[67,68]," 的后代的节点子集，则：",[1314,30246,30248,30319],{"title":30247},"定理 3.2（do-演算三规则）",[11,30249,30250,30251,505],{},"对任意互不相交的变量集合 ",[15,30252,30254,30280],{"className":30253,"translate":19},[18],[15,30255,30257],{"className":30256},[23],[25,30258,30259],{"xmlns":27},[29,30260,30261,30277],{},[32,30262,30263,30265,30267,30269,30271,30273,30275],{},[35,30264,37],{},[39,30266,42],{"separator":41},[35,30268,45],{},[39,30270,42],{"separator":41},[35,30272,4205],{},[39,30274,42],{"separator":41},[35,30276,3785],{},[47,30278,30279],{"encoding":49},"X, Y, Z, W",[15,30281,30283],{"className":30282,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,30284,30286,30289,30292,30295,30298,30301,30304,30307,30310,30313,30316],{"className":30285},[58],[15,30287],{"className":30288,"style":63},[62],[15,30290,37],{"className":30291,"style":69},[67,68],[15,30293,42],{"className":30294},[73],[15,30296],{"className":30297,"style":78},[77],[15,30299,45],{"className":30300,"style":82},[67,68],[15,30302,42],{"className":30303},[73],[15,30305],{"className":30306,"style":78},[77],[15,30308,4205],{"className":30309,"style":4234},[67,68],[15,30311,42],{"className":30312},[73],[15,30314],{"className":30315,"style":78},[77],[15,30317,3785],{"className":30318,"style":128},[67,68],[507,30320,30321,30777,31314],{},[510,30322,30323,7922,30326,30572,30573],{},[305,30324,30325],{},"规则 1（插入 \u002F 删除观测）",[15,30327,30329,30379],{"className":30328,"translate":19},[18],[15,30330,30332],{"className":30331},[23],[25,30333,30334],{"xmlns":27},[29,30335,30336,30376],{},[32,30337,30338,30340,30342,30344,30346,30348,30350,30352,30354,30356,30358,30360,30362],{},[39,30339,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,30341,45],{},[39,30343,236],{},[238,30345,240],{},[238,30347,240],{},[238,30349,240],{},[39,30351,236],{},[35,30353,4205],{},[39,30355,170],{},[35,30357,37],{},[39,30359,42],{"separator":41},[35,30361,3785],{},[863,30363,30364,30366],{},[39,30365,111],{"stretchy":101},[863,30367,30368,30370],{},[35,30369,1334],{},[18606,30371,30372,30374],{"accent":41},[35,30373,37],{},[39,30375,18612],{"stretchy":41},[47,30377,30378],{"encoding":49},"(Y \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp Z \\mid X, W)_{G_{\\overline{X}}}",[15,30380,30382,30409,30421,30439],{"className":30381,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,30383,30385,30388,30391,30394,30397,30400,30403,30406],{"className":30384},[58],[15,30386],{"className":30387,"style":124},[62],[15,30389,102],{"className":30390},[132],[15,30392,45],{"className":30393,"style":82},[67,68],[15,30395],{"className":30396,"style":199},[77],[15,30398,236],{"className":30399},[203],[15,30401],{"className":30402,"style":274},[77],[15,30404],{"className":30405,"style":274},[77],[15,30407],{"className":30408,"style":274},[77],[15,30410,30412,30415,30418],{"className":30411},[58],[15,30413],{"className":30414,"style":261},[62],[15,30416,236],{"className":30417},[203],[15,30419],{"className":30420,"style":199},[77],[15,30422,30424,30427,30430,30433,30436],{"className":30423},[58],[15,30425],{"className":30426,"style":124},[62],[15,30428,4205],{"className":30429,"style":4234},[67,68],[15,30431],{"className":30432,"style":199},[77],[15,30434,170],{"className":30435},[203],[15,30437],{"className":30438,"style":199},[77],[15,30440,30442,30446,30449,30452,30455,30458],{"className":30441},[58],[15,30443],{"className":30444,"style":30445},[62],"height:1.1228em;vertical-align:-0.3728em;",[15,30447,37],{"className":30448,"style":69},[67,68],[15,30450,42],{"className":30451},[73],[15,30453],{"className":30454,"style":78},[77],[15,30456,3785],{"className":30457,"style":128},[67,68],[15,30459,30461,30464],{"className":30460},[148],[15,30462,111],{"className":30463},[148],[15,30465,30467],{"className":30466},[918],[15,30468,30470,30563],{"className":30469},[922,923],[15,30471,30473,30560],{"className":30472},[927],[15,30474,30476],{"className":30475,"style":7346},[931],[15,30477,30478,30481],{"style":30045},[15,30479],{"className":30480,"style":18651},[939],[15,30482,30484],{"className":30483},[944,945,946,947],[15,30485,30487],{"className":30486},[67,947],[15,30488,30490,30493],{"className":30489},[67,947],[15,30491,1334],{"className":30492},[67,68,947],[15,30494,30496],{"className":30495},[918],[15,30497,30499,30551],{"className":30498},[922,923],[15,30500,30502,30548],{"className":30501},[927],[15,30503,30505],{"className":30504,"style":18644},[931],[15,30506,30508,30511],{"style":30507},"top:-2.6817em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.0714em;",[15,30509],{"className":30510,"style":18651},[939],[15,30512,30514],{"className":30513},[944,18388,15064,947],[15,30515,30517],{"className":30516},[67,947],[15,30518,30520],{"className":30519},[67,18661,947],[15,30521,30523],{"className":30522},[922],[15,30524,30526],{"className":30525},[927],[15,30527,30529,30540],{"className":30528,"style":18671},[931],[15,30530,30531,30534],{"style":18674},[15,30532],{"className":30533,"style":18651},[939],[15,30535,30537],{"className":30536},[67,947],[15,30538,37],{"className":30539,"style":69},[67,68,947],[15,30541,30542,30545],{"style":18686},[15,30543],{"className":30544,"style":18651},[939],[15,30546],{"className":30547,"style":18694},[18693,947],[15,30549,955],{"className":30550},[954],[15,30552,30554],{"className":30553},[927],[15,30555,30558],{"className":30556,"style":30557},[931],"height:0.3183em;",[15,30559],{},[15,30561,955],{"className":30562},[954],[15,30564,30566],{"className":30565},[927],[15,30567,30570],{"className":30568,"style":30569},[931],"height:0.3728em;",[15,30571],{},"，则\n",[15,30574,30576,30642],{"className":30575,"translate":19},[18],[15,30577,30579],{"className":30578},[23],[25,30580,30581],{"xmlns":27},[29,30582,30583,30639],{},[32,30584,30585,30587,30589,30591,30593,30595,30597,30599,30601,30603,30605,30607,30609,30611,30613,30615,30617,30619,30621,30623,30625,30627,30629,30631,30633,30635,30637],{},[35,30586,98],{},[39,30588,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,30590,534],{},[39,30592,170],{},[35,30594,696],{},[35,30596,699],{},[39,30598,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,30600,539],{},[39,30602,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,30604,42],{"separator":41},[35,30606,5812],{},[39,30608,42],{"separator":41},[35,30610,28751],{},[39,30612,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,30614,602],{},[35,30616,98],{},[39,30618,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,30620,534],{},[39,30622,170],{},[35,30624,696],{},[35,30626,699],{},[39,30628,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,30630,539],{},[39,30632,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,30634,42],{"separator":41},[35,30636,28751],{},[39,30638,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,30640,30641],{"encoding":49},"P(y \\mid do(x), z, w) = P(y \\mid do(x), w)",[15,30643,30645,30669,30720,30744],{"className":30644,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,30646,30648,30651,30654,30657,30660,30663,30666],{"className":30647},[58],[15,30649],{"className":30650,"style":124},[62],[15,30652,98],{"className":30653,"style":128},[67,68],[15,30655,102],{"className":30656},[132],[15,30658,534],{"className":30659,"style":563},[67,68],[15,30661],{"className":30662,"style":199},[77],[15,30664,170],{"className":30665},[203],[15,30667],{"className":30668,"style":199},[77],[15,30670,30672,30675,30678,30681,30684,30687,30690,30693,30696,30699,30702,30705,30708,30711,30714,30717],{"className":30671},[58],[15,30673],{"className":30674,"style":124},[62],[15,30676,696],{"className":30677},[67,68],[15,30679,699],{"className":30680},[67,68],[15,30682,102],{"className":30683},[132],[15,30685,539],{"className":30686},[67,68],[15,30688,111],{"className":30689},[148],[15,30691,42],{"className":30692},[73],[15,30694],{"className":30695,"style":78},[77],[15,30697,5812],{"className":30698,"style":5846},[67,68],[15,30700,42],{"className":30701},[73],[15,30703],{"className":30704,"style":78},[77],[15,30706,28751],{"className":30707,"style":28903},[67,68],[15,30709,111],{"className":30710},[148],[15,30712],{"className":30713,"style":199},[77],[15,30715,602],{"className":30716},[203],[15,30718],{"className":30719,"style":199},[77],[15,30721,30723,30726,30729,30732,30735,30738,30741],{"className":30722},[58],[15,30724],{"className":30725,"style":124},[62],[15,30727,98],{"className":30728,"style":128},[67,68],[15,30730,102],{"className":30731},[132],[15,30733,534],{"className":30734,"style":563},[67,68],[15,30736],{"className":30737,"style":199},[77],[15,30739,170],{"className":30740},[203],[15,30742],{"className":30743,"style":199},[77],[15,30745,30747,30750,30753,30756,30759,30762,30765,30768,30771,30774],{"className":30746},[58],[15,30748],{"className":30749,"style":124},[62],[15,30751,696],{"className":30752},[67,68],[15,30754,699],{"className":30755},[67,68],[15,30757,102],{"className":30758},[132],[15,30760,539],{"className":30761},[67,68],[15,30763,111],{"className":30764},[148],[15,30766,42],{"className":30767},[73],[15,30769],{"className":30770,"style":78},[77],[15,30772,28751],{"className":30773,"style":28903},[67,68],[15,30775,111],{"className":30776},[148],[510,30778,30779,7922,30782,30572,31077],{},[305,30780,30781],{},"规则 2（干预与观测的互换）",[15,30783,30785,30843],{"className":30784,"translate":19},[18],[15,30786,30788],{"className":30787},[23],[25,30789,30790],{"xmlns":27},[29,30791,30792,30840],{},[32,30793,30794,30796,30798,30800,30802,30804,30806,30808,30810,30812,30814,30816,30818],{},[39,30795,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,30797,45],{},[39,30799,236],{},[238,30801,240],{},[238,30803,240],{},[238,30805,240],{},[39,30807,236],{},[35,30809,4205],{},[39,30811,170],{},[35,30813,37],{},[39,30815,42],{"separator":41},[35,30817,3785],{},[863,30819,30820,30822],{},[39,30821,111],{"stretchy":101},[863,30823,30824,30826],{},[35,30825,1334],{},[32,30827,30828,30834],{},[18606,30829,30830,30832],{"accent":41},[35,30831,37],{},[39,30833,18612],{"stretchy":41},[30006,30835,30836,30838],{"accentunder":41},[35,30837,4205],{},[39,30839,18612],{"stretchy":41},[47,30841,30842],{"encoding":49},"(Y \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp Z \\mid X, W)_{G_{\\overline{X}\\underline{Z}}}",[15,30844,30846,30873,30885,30903],{"className":30845,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,30847,30849,30852,30855,30858,30861,30864,30867,30870],{"className":30848},[58],[15,30850],{"className":30851,"style":124},[62],[15,30853,102],{"className":30854},[132],[15,30856,45],{"className":30857,"style":82},[67,68],[15,30859],{"className":30860,"style":199},[77],[15,30862,236],{"className":30863},[203],[15,30865],{"className":30866,"style":274},[77],[15,30868],{"className":30869,"style":274},[77],[15,30871],{"className":30872,"style":274},[77],[15,30874,30876,30879,30882],{"className":30875},[58],[15,30877],{"className":30878,"style":261},[62],[15,30880,236],{"className":30881},[203],[15,30883],{"className":30884,"style":199},[77],[15,30886,30888,30891,30894,30897,30900],{"className":30887},[58],[15,30889],{"className":30890,"style":124},[62],[15,30892,4205],{"className":30893,"style":4234},[67,68],[15,30895],{"className":30896,"style":199},[77],[15,30898,170],{"className":30899},[203],[15,30901],{"className":30902,"style":199},[77],[15,30904,30906,30910,30913,30916,30919,30922],{"className":30905},[58],[15,30907],{"className":30908,"style":30909},[62],"height:1.2453em;vertical-align:-0.4953em;",[15,30911,37],{"className":30912,"style":69},[67,68],[15,30914,42],{"className":30915},[73],[15,30917],{"className":30918,"style":78},[77],[15,30920,3785],{"className":30921,"style":128},[67,68],[15,30923,30925,30928],{"className":30924},[148],[15,30926,111],{"className":30927},[148],[15,30929,30931],{"className":30930},[918],[15,30932,30934,31068],{"className":30933},[922,923],[15,30935,30937,31065],{"className":30936},[927],[15,30938,30940],{"className":30939,"style":7346},[931],[15,30941,30942,30945],{"style":30045},[15,30943],{"className":30944,"style":18651},[939],[15,30946,30948],{"className":30947},[944,945,946,947],[15,30949,30951],{"className":30950},[67,947],[15,30952,30954,30957],{"className":30953},[67,947],[15,30955,1334],{"className":30956},[67,68,947],[15,30958,30960],{"className":30959},[918],[15,30961,30963,31056],{"className":30962},[922,923],[15,30964,30966,31053],{"className":30965},[927],[15,30967,30969],{"className":30968,"style":18644},[931],[15,30970,30971,30974],{"style":30507},[15,30972],{"className":30973,"style":18651},[939],[15,30975,30977],{"className":30976},[944,18388,15064,947],[15,30978,30980,31011],{"className":30979},[67,947],[15,30981,30983],{"className":30982},[67,18661,947],[15,30984,30986],{"className":30985},[922],[15,30987,30989],{"className":30988},[927],[15,30990,30992,31003],{"className":30991,"style":18671},[931],[15,30993,30994,30997],{"style":18674},[15,30995],{"className":30996,"style":18651},[939],[15,30998,31000],{"className":30999},[67,947],[15,31001,37],{"className":31002,"style":69},[67,68,947],[15,31004,31005,31008],{"style":18686},[15,31006],{"className":31007,"style":18651},[939],[15,31009],{"className":31010,"style":18694},[18693,947],[15,31012,31014],{"className":31013},[67,30058,947],[15,31015,31017,31045],{"className":31016},[922,923],[15,31018,31020,31042],{"className":31019},[927],[15,31021,31023,31031],{"className":31022,"style":299},[931],[15,31024,31025,31028],{"style":30070},[15,31026],{"className":31027,"style":18651},[939],[15,31029],{"className":31030,"style":18694},[30077,947],[15,31032,31033,31036],{"style":18674},[15,31034],{"className":31035,"style":18651},[939],[15,31037,31039],{"className":31038},[67,947],[15,31040,4205],{"className":31041,"style":4234},[67,68,947],[15,31043,955],{"className":31044},[954],[15,31046,31048],{"className":31047},[927],[15,31049,31051],{"className":31050,"style":30098},[931],[15,31052],{},[15,31054,955],{"className":31055},[954],[15,31057,31059],{"className":31058},[927],[15,31060,31063],{"className":31061,"style":31062},[931],"height:0.4933em;",[15,31064],{},[15,31066,955],{"className":31067},[954],[15,31069,31071],{"className":31070},[927],[15,31072,31075],{"className":31073,"style":31074},[931],"height:0.4953em;",[15,31076],{},[15,31078,31080,31158],{"className":31079,"translate":19},[18],[15,31081,31083],{"className":31082},[23],[25,31084,31085],{"xmlns":27},[29,31086,31087,31155],{},[32,31088,31089,31091,31093,31095,31097,31099,31101,31103,31105,31107,31109,31111,31113,31115,31117,31119,31121,31123,31125,31127,31129,31131,31133,31135,31137,31139,31141,31143,31145,31147,31149,31151,31153],{},[35,31090,98],{},[39,31092,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,31094,534],{},[39,31096,170],{},[35,31098,696],{},[35,31100,699],{},[39,31102,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,31104,539],{},[39,31106,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,31108,42],{"separator":41},[35,31110,696],{},[35,31112,699],{},[39,31114,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,31116,5812],{},[39,31118,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,31120,42],{"separator":41},[35,31122,28751],{},[39,31124,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,31126,602],{},[35,31128,98],{},[39,31130,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,31132,534],{},[39,31134,170],{},[35,31136,696],{},[35,31138,699],{},[39,31140,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,31142,539],{},[39,31144,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,31146,42],{"separator":41},[35,31148,5812],{},[39,31150,42],{"separator":41},[35,31152,28751],{},[39,31154,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,31156,31157],{"encoding":49},"P(y \\mid do(x), do(z), w) = P(y \\mid do(x), z, w)",[15,31159,31161,31185,31248,31272],{"className":31160,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,31162,31164,31167,31170,31173,31176,31179,31182],{"className":31163},[58],[15,31165],{"className":31166,"style":124},[62],[15,31168,98],{"className":31169,"style":128},[67,68],[15,31171,102],{"className":31172},[132],[15,31174,534],{"className":31175,"style":563},[67,68],[15,31177],{"className":31178,"style":199},[77],[15,31180,170],{"className":31181},[203],[15,31183],{"className":31184,"style":199},[77],[15,31186,31188,31191,31194,31197,31200,31203,31206,31209,31212,31215,31218,31221,31224,31227,31230,31233,31236,31239,31242,31245],{"className":31187},[58],[15,31189],{"className":31190,"style":124},[62],[15,31192,696],{"className":31193},[67,68],[15,31195,699],{"className":31196},[67,68],[15,31198,102],{"className":31199},[132],[15,31201,539],{"className":31202},[67,68],[15,31204,111],{"className":31205},[148],[15,31207,42],{"className":31208},[73],[15,31210],{"className":31211,"style":78},[77],[15,31213,696],{"className":31214},[67,68],[15,31216,699],{"className":31217},[67,68],[15,31219,102],{"className":31220},[132],[15,31222,5812],{"className":31223,"style":5846},[67,68],[15,31225,111],{"className":31226},[148],[15,31228,42],{"className":31229},[73],[15,31231],{"className":31232,"style":78},[77],[15,31234,28751],{"className":31235,"style":28903},[67,68],[15,31237,111],{"className":31238},[148],[15,31240],{"className":31241,"style":199},[77],[15,31243,602],{"className":31244},[203],[15,31246],{"className":31247,"style":199},[77],[15,31249,31251,31254,31257,31260,31263,31266,31269],{"className":31250},[58],[15,31252],{"className":31253,"style":124},[62],[15,31255,98],{"className":31256,"style":128},[67,68],[15,31258,102],{"className":31259},[132],[15,31261,534],{"className":31262,"style":563},[67,68],[15,31264],{"className":31265,"style":199},[77],[15,31267,170],{"className":31268},[203],[15,31270],{"className":31271,"style":199},[77],[15,31273,31275,31278,31281,31284,31287,31290,31293,31296,31299,31302,31305,31308,31311],{"className":31274},[58],[15,31276],{"className":31277,"style":124},[62],[15,31279,696],{"className":31280},[67,68],[15,31282,699],{"className":31283},[67,68],[15,31285,102],{"className":31286},[132],[15,31288,539],{"className":31289},[67,68],[15,31291,111],{"className":31292},[148],[15,31294,42],{"className":31295},[73],[15,31297],{"className":31298,"style":78},[77],[15,31300,5812],{"className":31301,"style":5846},[67,68],[15,31303,42],{"className":31304},[73],[15,31306],{"className":31307,"style":78},[77],[15,31309,28751],{"className":31310,"style":28903},[67,68],[15,31312,111],{"className":31313},[148],[510,31315,31316,7922,31319,30572,31635],{},[305,31317,31318],{},"规则 3（插入 \u002F 删除干预）",[15,31320,31322,31388],{"className":31321,"translate":19},[18],[15,31323,31325],{"className":31324},[23],[25,31326,31327],{"xmlns":27},[29,31328,31329,31385],{},[32,31330,31331,31333,31335,31337,31339,31341,31343,31345,31347,31349,31351,31353,31355],{},[39,31332,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,31334,45],{},[39,31336,236],{},[238,31338,240],{},[238,31340,240],{},[238,31342,240],{},[39,31344,236],{},[35,31346,4205],{},[39,31348,170],{},[35,31350,37],{},[39,31352,42],{"separator":41},[35,31354,3785],{},[863,31356,31357,31359],{},[39,31358,111],{"stretchy":101},[863,31360,31361,31363],{},[35,31362,1334],{},[32,31364,31365,31371],{},[18606,31366,31367,31369],{"accent":41},[35,31368,37],{},[39,31370,18612],{"stretchy":41},[18606,31372,31373,31383],{"accent":41},[32,31374,31375,31377,31379,31381],{},[35,31376,4205],{},[39,31378,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,31380,3785],{},[39,31382,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,31384,18612],{"stretchy":41},[47,31386,31387],{"encoding":49},"(Y \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp Z \\mid X, W)_{G_{\\overline{X}\\overline{Z(W)}}}",[15,31389,31391,31418,31430,31448],{"className":31390,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,31392,31394,31397,31400,31403,31406,31409,31412,31415],{"className":31393},[58],[15,31395],{"className":31396,"style":124},[62],[15,31398,102],{"className":31399},[132],[15,31401,45],{"className":31402,"style":82},[67,68],[15,31404],{"className":31405,"style":199},[77],[15,31407,236],{"className":31408},[203],[15,31410],{"className":31411,"style":274},[77],[15,31413],{"className":31414,"style":274},[77],[15,31416],{"className":31417,"style":274},[77],[15,31419,31421,31424,31427],{"className":31420},[58],[15,31422],{"className":31423,"style":261},[62],[15,31425,236],{"className":31426},[203],[15,31428],{"className":31429,"style":199},[77],[15,31431,31433,31436,31439,31442,31445],{"className":31432},[58],[15,31434],{"className":31435,"style":124},[62],[15,31437,4205],{"className":31438,"style":4234},[67,68],[15,31440],{"className":31441,"style":199},[77],[15,31443,170],{"className":31444},[203],[15,31446],{"className":31447,"style":199},[77],[15,31449,31451,31455,31458,31461,31464,31467],{"className":31450},[58],[15,31452],{"className":31453,"style":31454},[62],"height:1.2811em;vertical-align:-0.5311em;",[15,31456,37],{"className":31457,"style":69},[67,68],[15,31459,42],{"className":31460},[73],[15,31462],{"className":31463,"style":78},[77],[15,31465,3785],{"className":31466,"style":128},[67,68],[15,31468,31470,31473],{"className":31469},[148],[15,31471,111],{"className":31472},[148],[15,31474,31476],{"className":31475},[918],[15,31477,31479,31626],{"className":31478},[922,923],[15,31480,31482,31623],{"className":31481},[927],[15,31483,31485],{"className":31484,"style":7346},[931],[15,31486,31487,31490],{"style":30045},[15,31488],{"className":31489,"style":18651},[939],[15,31491,31493],{"className":31492},[944,945,946,947],[15,31494,31496],{"className":31495},[67,947],[15,31497,31499,31502],{"className":31498},[67,947],[15,31500,1334],{"className":31501},[67,68,947],[15,31503,31505],{"className":31504},[918],[15,31506,31508,31614],{"className":31507},[922,923],[15,31509,31511,31611],{"className":31510},[927],[15,31512,31514],{"className":31513,"style":18644},[931],[15,31515,31517,31520],{"style":31516},"top:-2.6341em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.0714em;",[15,31518],{"className":31519,"style":18651},[939],[15,31521,31523],{"className":31522},[944,18388,15064,947],[15,31524,31526,31557],{"className":31525},[67,947],[15,31527,31529],{"className":31528},[67,18661,947],[15,31530,31532],{"className":31531},[922],[15,31533,31535],{"className":31534},[927],[15,31536,31538,31549],{"className":31537,"style":18671},[931],[15,31539,31540,31543],{"style":18674},[15,31541],{"className":31542,"style":18651},[939],[15,31544,31546],{"className":31545},[67,947],[15,31547,37],{"className":31548,"style":69},[67,68,947],[15,31550,31551,31554],{"style":18686},[15,31552],{"className":31553,"style":18651},[939],[15,31555],{"className":31556,"style":18694},[18693,947],[15,31558,31560],{"className":31559},[67,18661,947],[15,31561,31563,31602],{"className":31562},[922,923],[15,31564,31566,31599],{"className":31565},[927],[15,31567,31570,31590],{"className":31568,"style":31569},[931],"height:0.995em;",[15,31571,31572,31575],{"style":18674},[15,31573],{"className":31574,"style":18651},[939],[15,31576,31578,31581,31584,31587],{"className":31577},[67,947],[15,31579,4205],{"className":31580,"style":4234},[67,68,947],[15,31582,102],{"className":31583},[132,947],[15,31585,3785],{"className":31586,"style":128},[67,68,947],[15,31588,111],{"className":31589},[148,947],[15,31591,31593,31596],{"style":31592},"top:-3.897em;",[15,31594],{"className":31595,"style":18651},[939],[15,31597],{"className":31598,"style":18694},[18693,947],[15,31600,955],{"className":31601},[954],[15,31603,31605],{"className":31604},[927],[15,31606,31609],{"className":31607,"style":31608},[931],"height:0.25em;",[15,31610],{},[15,31612,955],{"className":31613},[954],[15,31615,31617],{"className":31616},[927],[15,31618,31621],{"className":31619,"style":31620},[931],"height:0.5445em;",[15,31622],{},[15,31624,955],{"className":31625},[954],[15,31627,31629],{"className":31628},[927],[15,31630,31633],{"className":31631,"style":31632},[931],"height:0.5311em;",[15,31634],{},[15,31636,31638,31712],{"className":31637,"translate":19},[18],[15,31639,31641],{"className":31640},[23],[25,31642,31643],{"xmlns":27},[29,31644,31645,31709],{},[32,31646,31647,31649,31651,31653,31655,31657,31659,31661,31663,31665,31667,31669,31671,31673,31675,31677,31679,31681,31683,31685,31687,31689,31691,31693,31695,31697,31699,31701,31703,31705,31707],{},[35,31648,98],{},[39,31650,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,31652,534],{},[39,31654,170],{},[35,31656,696],{},[35,31658,699],{},[39,31660,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,31662,539],{},[39,31664,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,31666,42],{"separator":41},[35,31668,696],{},[35,31670,699],{},[39,31672,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,31674,5812],{},[39,31676,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,31678,42],{"separator":41},[35,31680,28751],{},[39,31682,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,31684,602],{},[35,31686,98],{},[39,31688,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,31690,534],{},[39,31692,170],{},[35,31694,696],{},[35,31696,699],{},[39,31698,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,31700,539],{},[39,31702,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,31704,42],{"separator":41},[35,31706,28751],{},[39,31708,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,31710,31711],{"encoding":49},"P(y \\mid do(x), do(z), w) = P(y \\mid do(x), w)",[15,31713,31715,31739,31802,31826],{"className":31714,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,31716,31718,31721,31724,31727,31730,31733,31736],{"className":31717},[58],[15,31719],{"className":31720,"style":124},[62],[15,31722,98],{"className":31723,"style":128},[67,68],[15,31725,102],{"className":31726},[132],[15,31728,534],{"className":31729,"style":563},[67,68],[15,31731],{"className":31732,"style":199},[77],[15,31734,170],{"className":31735},[203],[15,31737],{"className":31738,"style":199},[77],[15,31740,31742,31745,31748,31751,31754,31757,31760,31763,31766,31769,31772,31775,31778,31781,31784,31787,31790,31793,31796,31799],{"className":31741},[58],[15,31743],{"className":31744,"style":124},[62],[15,31746,696],{"className":31747},[67,68],[15,31749,699],{"className":31750},[67,68],[15,31752,102],{"className":31753},[132],[15,31755,539],{"className":31756},[67,68],[15,31758,111],{"className":31759},[148],[15,31761,42],{"className":31762},[73],[15,31764],{"className":31765,"style":78},[77],[15,31767,696],{"className":31768},[67,68],[15,31770,699],{"className":31771},[67,68],[15,31773,102],{"className":31774},[132],[15,31776,5812],{"className":31777,"style":5846},[67,68],[15,31779,111],{"className":31780},[148],[15,31782,42],{"className":31783},[73],[15,31785],{"className":31786,"style":78},[77],[15,31788,28751],{"className":31789,"style":28903},[67,68],[15,31791,111],{"className":31792},[148],[15,31794],{"className":31795,"style":199},[77],[15,31797,602],{"className":31798},[203],[15,31800],{"className":31801,"style":199},[77],[15,31803,31805,31808,31811,31814,31817,31820,31823],{"className":31804},[58],[15,31806],{"className":31807,"style":124},[62],[15,31809,98],{"className":31810,"style":128},[67,68],[15,31812,102],{"className":31813},[132],[15,31815,534],{"className":31816,"style":563},[67,68],[15,31818],{"className":31819,"style":199},[77],[15,31821,170],{"className":31822},[203],[15,31824],{"className":31825,"style":199},[77],[15,31827,31829,31832,31835,31838,31841,31844,31847,31850,31853,31856],{"className":31828},[58],[15,31830],{"className":31831,"style":124},[62],[15,31833,696],{"className":31834},[67,68],[15,31836,699],{"className":31837},[67,68],[15,31839,102],{"className":31840},[132],[15,31842,539],{"className":31843},[67,68],[15,31845,111],{"className":31846},[148],[15,31848,42],{"className":31849},[73],[15,31851],{"className":31852,"style":78},[77],[15,31854,28751],{"className":31855,"style":28903},[67,68],[15,31857,111],{"className":31858},[148],[11,31860,31861,31862,31896,31897,31930,31931,31964,31965,32047,32048,32085,32086,32089,32090,32123,32124,32127],{},"三条规则的形态高度一致：每一条都在某个 d-分离判据成立时，把一个含 ",[15,31863,31865,31881],{"className":31864,"translate":19},[18],[15,31866,31868],{"className":31867},[23],[25,31869,31870],{"xmlns":27},[29,31871,31872,31878],{},[32,31873,31874,31876],{},[35,31875,696],{},[35,31877,699],{},[47,31879,31880],{"encoding":49},"do",[15,31882,31884],{"className":31883,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,31885,31887,31890,31893],{"className":31886},[58],[15,31888],{"className":31889,"style":261},[62],[15,31891,696],{"className":31892},[67,68],[15,31894,699],{"className":31895},[67,68]," 算子的表达式改写为 ",[15,31898,31900,31915],{"className":31899,"translate":19},[18],[15,31901,31903],{"className":31902},[23],[25,31904,31905],{"xmlns":27},[29,31906,31907,31913],{},[32,31908,31909,31911],{},[35,31910,696],{},[35,31912,699],{},[47,31914,31880],{"encoding":49},[15,31916,31918],{"className":31917,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,31919,31921,31924,31927],{"className":31920},[58],[15,31922],{"className":31923,"style":261},[62],[15,31925,696],{"className":31926},[67,68],[15,31928,699],{"className":31929},[67,68]," 算子更少（或不含 ",[15,31932,31934,31949],{"className":31933,"translate":19},[18],[15,31935,31937],{"className":31936},[23],[25,31938,31939],{"xmlns":27},[29,31940,31941,31947],{},[32,31942,31943,31945],{},[35,31944,696],{},[35,31946,699],{},[47,31948,31880],{"encoding":49},[15,31950,31952],{"className":31951,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,31953,31955,31958,31961],{"className":31954},[58],[15,31956],{"className":31957,"style":261},[62],[15,31959,696],{"className":31960},[67,68],[15,31962,699],{"className":31963},[67,68],"）的表达式。因此判断 ",[15,31966,31968,31999],{"className":31967,"translate":19},[18],[15,31969,31971],{"className":31970},[23],[25,31972,31973],{"xmlns":27},[29,31974,31975,31997],{},[32,31976,31977,31979,31981,31983,31985,31987,31989,31991,31993,31995],{},[35,31978,98],{},[39,31980,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,31982,534],{},[39,31984,170],{},[35,31986,696],{},[35,31988,699],{},[39,31990,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,31992,539],{},[39,31994,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,31996,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,31998,710],{"encoding":49},[15,32000,32002,32026],{"className":32001,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32003,32005,32008,32011,32014,32017,32020,32023],{"className":32004},[58],[15,32006],{"className":32007,"style":124},[62],[15,32009,98],{"className":32010,"style":128},[67,68],[15,32012,102],{"className":32013},[132],[15,32015,534],{"className":32016,"style":563},[67,68],[15,32018],{"className":32019,"style":199},[77],[15,32021,170],{"className":32022},[203],[15,32024],{"className":32025,"style":199},[77],[15,32027,32029,32032,32035,32038,32041,32044],{"className":32028},[58],[15,32030],{"className":32031,"style":124},[62],[15,32033,696],{"className":32034},[67,68],[15,32036,699],{"className":32037},[67,68],[15,32039,102],{"className":32040},[132],[15,32042,539],{"className":32043},[67,68],[15,32045,759],{"className":32046},[148]," 是否可识别的过程，就是反复应用三条规则、尝试",[305,32049,32050,32051,32084],{},"消去全部 ",[15,32052,32054,32069],{"className":32053,"translate":19},[18],[15,32055,32057],{"className":32056},[23],[25,32058,32059],{"xmlns":27},[29,32060,32061,32067],{},[32,32062,32063,32065],{},[35,32064,696],{},[35,32066,699],{},[47,32068,31880],{"encoding":49},[15,32070,32072],{"className":32071,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32073,32075,32078,32081],{"className":32074},[58],[15,32076],{"className":32077,"style":261},[62],[15,32079,696],{"className":32080},[67,68],[15,32082,699],{"className":32083},[67,68]," 算子","的过程。Shpitser 与 Pearl（2006）进一步证明了这套规则对可识别性是",[305,32087,32088],{},"完备的","：若不存在任何有限次的规则应用序列能把目标量化为不含 ",[15,32091,32093,32108],{"className":32092,"translate":19},[18],[15,32094,32096],{"className":32095},[23],[25,32097,32098],{"xmlns":27},[29,32099,32100,32106],{},[32,32101,32102,32104],{},[35,32103,696],{},[35,32105,699],{},[47,32107,31880],{"encoding":49},[15,32109,32111],{"className":32110,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32112,32114,32117,32120],{"className":32113},[58],[15,32115],{"className":32116,"style":261},[62],[15,32118,696],{"className":32119},[67,68],[15,32121,699],{"className":32122},[67,68]," 的形式，则该量确实不可由观测分布识别。这一点很重要——它为「不可识别」这一否定性结论提供了",[305,32125,32126],{},"证明手段","，而不只是「暂时没想到办法」。",[11,32129,32130],{},"若不想每次都从三条规则出发作推导，可以使用若干直接给出识别公式的充分性准则。其中最重要的一条是后门准则：",[1314,32132,32134],{"title":32133},"定理 3.3（后门准则，Back-door Criterion）",[11,32135,32136,32137,32165,32166,32194,32195,32223,32224,32252,32253,32294,32295,32323,32324,32554,32555,32583,32584,32587],{},"若变量集合 ",[15,32138,32140,32153],{"className":32139,"translate":19},[18],[15,32141,32143],{"className":32142},[23],[25,32144,32145],{"xmlns":27},[29,32146,32147,32151],{},[32,32148,32149],{},[35,32150,3769],{},[47,32152,3769],{"encoding":49},[15,32154,32156],{"className":32155,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32157,32159,32162],{"className":32158},[58],[15,32160],{"className":32161,"style":299},[62],[15,32163,3769],{"className":32164,"style":1394},[67,68]," 满足：(i) ",[15,32167,32169,32182],{"className":32168,"translate":19},[18],[15,32170,32172],{"className":32171},[23],[25,32173,32174],{"xmlns":27},[29,32175,32176,32180],{},[32,32177,32178],{},[35,32179,3769],{},[47,32181,3769],{"encoding":49},[15,32183,32185],{"className":32184,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32186,32188,32191],{"className":32187},[58],[15,32189],{"className":32190,"style":299},[62],[15,32192,3769],{"className":32193,"style":1394},[67,68]," 中不包含 ",[15,32196,32198,32211],{"className":32197,"translate":19},[18],[15,32199,32201],{"className":32200},[23],[25,32202,32203],{"xmlns":27},[29,32204,32205,32209],{},[32,32206,32207],{},[35,32208,37],{},[47,32210,37],{"encoding":49},[15,32212,32214],{"className":32213,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32215,32217,32220],{"className":32216},[58],[15,32218],{"className":32219,"style":299},[62],[15,32221,37],{"className":32222,"style":69},[67,68]," 的任何后代；(ii) ",[15,32225,32227,32240],{"className":32226,"translate":19},[18],[15,32228,32230],{"className":32229},[23],[25,32231,32232],{"xmlns":27},[29,32233,32234,32238],{},[32,32235,32236],{},[35,32237,3769],{},[47,32239,3769],{"encoding":49},[15,32241,32243],{"className":32242,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32244,32246,32249],{"className":32245},[58],[15,32247],{"className":32248,"style":299},[62],[15,32250,3769],{"className":32251,"style":1394},[67,68]," 阻断了 ",[15,32254,32256,32273],{"className":32255,"translate":19},[18],[15,32257,32259],{"className":32258},[23],[25,32260,32261],{"xmlns":27},[29,32262,32263,32271],{},[32,32264,32265,32267,32269],{},[35,32266,37],{},[39,32268,42],{"separator":41},[35,32270,45],{},[47,32272,50],{"encoding":49},[15,32274,32276],{"className":32275,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32277,32279,32282,32285,32288,32291],{"className":32278},[58],[15,32280],{"className":32281,"style":63},[62],[15,32283,37],{"className":32284,"style":69},[67,68],[15,32286,42],{"className":32287},[73],[15,32289],{"className":32290,"style":78},[77],[15,32292,45],{"className":32293,"style":82},[67,68]," 之间所有以指向 ",[15,32296,32298,32311],{"className":32297,"translate":19},[18],[15,32299,32301],{"className":32300},[23],[25,32302,32303],{"xmlns":27},[29,32304,32305,32309],{},[32,32306,32307],{},[35,32308,37],{},[47,32310,37],{"encoding":49},[15,32312,32314],{"className":32313,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32315,32317,32320],{"className":32316},[58],[15,32318],{"className":32319,"style":299},[62],[15,32321,37],{"className":32322,"style":69},[67,68]," 的边起始的路径（「后门路径」），则\n",[15,32325,32327,32394],{"className":32326,"translate":19},[18],[15,32328,32330],{"className":32329},[23],[25,32331,32332],{"xmlns":27},[29,32333,32334,32391],{},[32,32335,32336,32338,32340,32342,32344,32346,32348,32350,32352,32354,32356,32358,32364,32366,32368,32370,32372,32374,32376,32378,32380,32383,32385,32387,32389],{},[35,32337,98],{},[39,32339,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,32341,534],{},[39,32343,170],{},[35,32345,696],{},[35,32347,699],{},[39,32349,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,32351,539],{},[39,32353,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,32355,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,32357,602],{},[863,32359,32360,32362],{},[39,32361,20386],{},[35,32363,20389],{},[35,32365,98],{},[39,32367,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,32369,534],{},[39,32371,170],{},[35,32373,539],{},[39,32375,42],{"separator":41},[35,32377,20389],{},[39,32379,111],{"stretchy":101},[238,32381,32382],{}," ",[35,32384,98],{},[39,32386,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,32388,20389],{},[39,32390,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,32392,32393],{"encoding":49},"P(y \\mid do(x)) = \\sum_s P(y \\mid x, s) \\, P(s)",[15,32395,32397,32421,32451,32518],{"className":32396,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32398,32400,32403,32406,32409,32412,32415,32418],{"className":32399},[58],[15,32401],{"className":32402,"style":124},[62],[15,32404,98],{"className":32405,"style":128},[67,68],[15,32407,102],{"className":32408},[132],[15,32410,534],{"className":32411,"style":563},[67,68],[15,32413],{"className":32414,"style":199},[77],[15,32416,170],{"className":32417},[203],[15,32419],{"className":32420,"style":199},[77],[15,32422,32424,32427,32430,32433,32436,32439,32442,32445,32448],{"className":32423},[58],[15,32425],{"className":32426,"style":124},[62],[15,32428,696],{"className":32429},[67,68],[15,32431,699],{"className":32432},[67,68],[15,32434,102],{"className":32435},[132],[15,32437,539],{"className":32438},[67,68],[15,32440,759],{"className":32441},[148],[15,32443],{"className":32444,"style":199},[77],[15,32446,602],{"className":32447},[203],[15,32449],{"className":32450,"style":199},[77],[15,32452,32454,32457,32497,32500,32503,32506,32509,32512,32515],{"className":32453},[58],[15,32455],{"className":32456,"style":20564},[62],[15,32458,32460,32463],{"className":32459},[12747],[15,32461,20386],{"className":32462,"style":12753},[12747,12751,12752],[15,32464,32466],{"className":32465},[918],[15,32467,32469,32489],{"className":32468},[922,923],[15,32470,32472,32486],{"className":32471},[927],[15,32473,32475],{"className":32474,"style":20583},[931],[15,32476,32477,32480],{"style":12769},[15,32478],{"className":32479,"style":940},[939],[15,32481,32483],{"className":32482},[944,945,946,947],[15,32484,20389],{"className":32485},[67,68,947],[15,32487,955],{"className":32488},[954],[15,32490,32492],{"className":32491},[927],[15,32493,32495],{"className":32494,"style":12809},[931],[15,32496],{},[15,32498],{"className":32499,"style":78},[77],[15,32501,98],{"className":32502,"style":128},[67,68],[15,32504,102],{"className":32505},[132],[15,32507,534],{"className":32508,"style":563},[67,68],[15,32510],{"className":32511,"style":199},[77],[15,32513,170],{"className":32514},[203],[15,32516],{"className":32517,"style":199},[77],[15,32519,32521,32524,32527,32530,32533,32536,32539,32542,32545,32548,32551],{"className":32520},[58],[15,32522],{"className":32523,"style":124},[62],[15,32525,539],{"className":32526},[67,68],[15,32528,42],{"className":32529},[73],[15,32531],{"className":32532,"style":78},[77],[15,32534,20389],{"className":32535},[67,68],[15,32537,111],{"className":32538},[148],[15,32540],{"className":32541,"style":78},[77],[15,32543,98],{"className":32544,"style":128},[67,68],[15,32546,102],{"className":32547},[132],[15,32549,20389],{"className":32550},[67,68],[15,32552,111],{"className":32553},[148],"\n即干预效果可以通过对满足后门准则的变量集合 ",[15,32556,32558,32571],{"className":32557,"translate":19},[18],[15,32559,32561],{"className":32560},[23],[25,32562,32563],{"xmlns":27},[29,32564,32565,32569],{},[32,32566,32567],{},[35,32568,3769],{},[47,32570,3769],{"encoding":49},[15,32572,32574],{"className":32573,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32575,32577,32580],{"className":32576},[58],[15,32578],{"className":32579,"style":299},[62],[15,32581,3769],{"className":32582,"style":1394},[67,68]," 做",[305,32585,32586],{},"分层加权平均（standardization）","，完全由观测数据估计得出，而无需真正实施干预、进行随机对照实验。",[11,32589,32590,32591,32619,32620,32648,32649,431,32677,32705],{},"条件 (i) 的必要性，正是第一部分对撞结构那一结论的直接后果：一旦把 ",[15,32592,32594,32607],{"className":32593,"translate":19},[18],[15,32595,32597],{"className":32596},[23],[25,32598,32599],{"xmlns":27},[29,32600,32601,32605],{},[32,32602,32603],{},[35,32604,37],{},[47,32606,37],{"encoding":49},[15,32608,32610],{"className":32609,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32611,32613,32616],{"className":32612},[58],[15,32614],{"className":32615,"style":299},[62],[15,32617,37],{"className":32618,"style":69},[67,68]," 的后代放进 ",[15,32621,32623,32636],{"className":32622,"translate":19},[18],[15,32624,32626],{"className":32625},[23],[25,32627,32628],{"xmlns":27},[29,32629,32630,32634],{},[32,32631,32632],{},[35,32633,3769],{},[47,32635,3769],{"encoding":49},[15,32637,32639],{"className":32638,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32640,32642,32645],{"className":32641},[58],[15,32643],{"className":32644,"style":299},[62],[15,32646,3769],{"className":32647,"style":1394},[67,68],"，就可能在 ",[15,32650,32652,32665],{"className":32651,"translate":19},[18],[15,32653,32655],{"className":32654},[23],[25,32656,32657],{"xmlns":27},[29,32658,32659,32663],{},[32,32660,32661],{},[35,32662,37],{},[47,32664,37],{"encoding":49},[15,32666,32668],{"className":32667,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32669,32671,32674],{"className":32670},[58],[15,32672],{"className":32673,"style":299},[62],[15,32675,37],{"className":32676,"style":69},[67,68],[15,32678,32680,32693],{"className":32679,"translate":19},[18],[15,32681,32683],{"className":32682},[23],[25,32684,32685],{"xmlns":27},[29,32686,32687,32691],{},[32,32688,32689],{},[35,32690,45],{},[47,32692,45],{"encoding":49},[15,32694,32696],{"className":32695,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32697,32699,32702],{"className":32698},[58],[15,32700],{"className":32701,"style":299},[62],[15,32703,45],{"className":32704,"style":82},[67,68]," 之间人为打开一条对撞路径，制造出并不存在的关联。",[11,32707,32708,32709,32712,32713,32716],{},"不过后门准则有一个明显的局限：它要求所有混杂变量",[305,32710,32711],{},"都被观测到、且可以被条件化","。而在现实中，这一要求经常落空。以下这条准则则可以在",[305,32714,32715],{},"存在未观测混杂","的情形下绕过这一困难：",[1314,32718,32720],{"title":32719},"定理 3.4（前门准则，Front-door Criterion）",[11,32721,3748,32722,32165,32750,32778,32779,32807,32808,2102,32836,32838,32839,4687,32867,32895,32896,32924,32925,2352,32953,32981,32982,33010,33011],{},[15,32723,32725,32738],{"className":32724,"translate":19},[18],[15,32726,32728],{"className":32727},[23],[25,32729,32730],{"xmlns":27},[29,32731,32732,32736],{},[32,32733,32734],{},[35,32735,9452],{},[47,32737,9452],{"encoding":49},[15,32739,32741],{"className":32740,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32742,32744,32747],{"className":32743},[58],[15,32745],{"className":32746,"style":299},[62],[15,32748,9452],{"className":32749,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,32751,32753,32766],{"className":32752,"translate":19},[18],[15,32754,32756],{"className":32755},[23],[25,32757,32758],{"xmlns":27},[29,32759,32760,32764],{},[32,32761,32762],{},[35,32763,9452],{},[47,32765,9452],{"encoding":49},[15,32767,32769],{"className":32768,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32770,32772,32775],{"className":32771},[58],[15,32773],{"className":32774,"style":299},[62],[15,32776,9452],{"className":32777,"style":2566},[67,68]," 阻断了所有从 ",[15,32780,32782,32795],{"className":32781,"translate":19},[18],[15,32783,32785],{"className":32784},[23],[25,32786,32787],{"xmlns":27},[29,32788,32789,32793],{},[32,32790,32791],{},[35,32792,37],{},[47,32794,37],{"encoding":49},[15,32796,32798],{"className":32797,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32799,32801,32804],{"className":32800},[58],[15,32802],{"className":32803,"style":299},[62],[15,32805,37],{"className":32806,"style":69},[67,68]," 指向 ",[15,32809,32811,32824],{"className":32810,"translate":19},[18],[15,32812,32814],{"className":32813},[23],[25,32815,32816],{"xmlns":27},[29,32817,32818,32822],{},[32,32819,32820],{},[35,32821,45],{},[47,32823,45],{"encoding":49},[15,32825,32827],{"className":32826,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32828,32830,32833],{"className":32829},[58],[15,32831],{"className":32832,"style":299},[62],[15,32834,45],{"className":32835,"style":82},[67,68],[305,32837,2959],{},"（即 ",[15,32840,32842,32855],{"className":32841,"translate":19},[18],[15,32843,32845],{"className":32844},[23],[25,32846,32847],{"xmlns":27},[29,32848,32849,32853],{},[32,32850,32851],{},[35,32852,37],{},[47,32854,37],{"encoding":49},[15,32856,32858],{"className":32857,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32859,32861,32864],{"className":32860},[58],[15,32862],{"className":32863,"style":299},[62],[15,32865,37],{"className":32866,"style":69},[67,68],[15,32868,32870,32883],{"className":32869,"translate":19},[18],[15,32871,32873],{"className":32872},[23],[25,32874,32875],{"xmlns":27},[29,32876,32877,32881],{},[32,32878,32879],{},[35,32880,45],{},[47,32882,45],{"encoding":49},[15,32884,32886],{"className":32885,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32887,32889,32892],{"className":32888},[58],[15,32890],{"className":32891,"style":299},[62],[15,32893,45],{"className":32894,"style":82},[67,68]," 的全部因果影响都经过 ",[15,32897,32899,32912],{"className":32898,"translate":19},[18],[15,32900,32902],{"className":32901},[23],[25,32903,32904],{"xmlns":27},[29,32905,32906,32910],{},[32,32907,32908],{},[35,32909,9452],{},[47,32911,9452],{"encoding":49},[15,32913,32915],{"className":32914,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32916,32918,32921],{"className":32917},[58],[15,32919],{"className":32920,"style":299},[62],[15,32922,9452],{"className":32923,"style":2566},[67,68]," 传送）；(ii) 不存在从 ",[15,32926,32928,32941],{"className":32927,"translate":19},[18],[15,32929,32931],{"className":32930},[23],[25,32932,32933],{"xmlns":27},[29,32934,32935,32939],{},[32,32936,32937],{},[35,32938,9452],{},[47,32940,9452],{"encoding":49},[15,32942,32944],{"className":32943,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32945,32947,32950],{"className":32946},[58],[15,32948],{"className":32949,"style":299},[62],[15,32951,9452],{"className":32952,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,32954,32956,32969],{"className":32955,"translate":19},[18],[15,32957,32959],{"className":32958},[23],[25,32960,32961],{"xmlns":27},[29,32962,32963,32967],{},[32,32964,32965],{},[35,32966,45],{},[47,32968,45],{"encoding":49},[15,32970,32972],{"className":32971,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,32973,32975,32978],{"className":32974},[58],[15,32976],{"className":32977,"style":299},[62],[15,32979,45],{"className":32980,"style":82},[67,68]," 的、未被 ",[15,32983,32985,32998],{"className":32984,"translate":19},[18],[15,32986,32988],{"className":32987},[23],[25,32989,32990],{"xmlns":27},[29,32991,32992,32996],{},[32,32993,32994],{},[35,32995,37],{},[47,32997,37],{"encoding":49},[15,32999,33001],{"className":33000,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,33002,33004,33007],{"className":33003},[58],[15,33005],{"className":33006,"style":299},[62],[15,33008,37],{"className":33009,"style":69},[67,68]," 阻断的后门路径。则\n",[15,33012,33014,33108],{"className":33013,"translate":19},[18],[15,33015,33017],{"className":33016},[23],[25,33018,33019],{"xmlns":27},[29,33020,33021,33105],{},[32,33022,33023,33025,33027,33029,33031,33033,33035,33037,33039,33041,33043,33045,33051,33053,33055,33057,33059,33061,33063,33073,33075,33077,33079,33081,33083,33085,33091,33093,33095,33097,33103],{},[35,33024,98],{},[39,33026,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,33028,534],{},[39,33030,170],{},[35,33032,696],{},[35,33034,699],{},[39,33036,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,33038,539],{},[39,33040,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,33042,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,33044,602],{},[863,33046,33047,33049],{},[39,33048,20386],{},[35,33050,9594],{},[35,33052,98],{},[39,33054,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,33056,9594],{},[39,33058,170],{},[35,33060,539],{},[39,33062,111],{"stretchy":101},[863,33064,33065,33067],{},[39,33066,20386],{},[872,33068,33069,33071],{},[35,33070,539],{},[39,33072,880],{"mathvariant":878,"lspace":879,"rspace":879},[35,33074,98],{},[39,33076,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,33078,534],{},[39,33080,170],{},[35,33082,9594],{},[39,33084,42],{"separator":41},[872,33086,33087,33089],{},[35,33088,539],{},[39,33090,880],{"mathvariant":878,"lspace":879,"rspace":879},[39,33092,111],{"stretchy":101},[35,33094,98],{},[39,33096,102],{"stretchy":101},[872,33098,33099,33101],{},[35,33100,539],{},[39,33102,880],{"mathvariant":878,"lspace":879,"rspace":879},[39,33104,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,33106,33107],{"encoding":49},"P(y \\mid do(x)) = \\sum_m P(m \\mid x) \\sum_{x'} P(y \\mid m, x') P(x')",[15,33109,33111,33135,33165,33232,33342],{"className":33110,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,33112,33114,33117,33120,33123,33126,33129,33132],{"className":33113},[58],[15,33115],{"className":33116,"style":124},[62],[15,33118,98],{"className":33119,"style":128},[67,68],[15,33121,102],{"className":33122},[132],[15,33124,534],{"className":33125,"style":563},[67,68],[15,33127],{"className":33128,"style":199},[77],[15,33130,170],{"className":33131},[203],[15,33133],{"className":33134,"style":199},[77],[15,33136,33138,33141,33144,33147,33150,33153,33156,33159,33162],{"className":33137},[58],[15,33139],{"className":33140,"style":124},[62],[15,33142,696],{"className":33143},[67,68],[15,33145,699],{"className":33146},[67,68],[15,33148,102],{"className":33149},[132],[15,33151,539],{"className":33152},[67,68],[15,33154,759],{"className":33155},[148],[15,33157],{"className":33158,"style":199},[77],[15,33160,602],{"className":33161},[203],[15,33163],{"className":33164,"style":199},[77],[15,33166,33168,33171,33211,33214,33217,33220,33223,33226,33229],{"className":33167},[58],[15,33169],{"className":33170,"style":20564},[62],[15,33172,33174,33177],{"className":33173},[12747],[15,33175,20386],{"className":33176,"style":12753},[12747,12751,12752],[15,33178,33180],{"className":33179},[918],[15,33181,33183,33203],{"className":33182},[922,923],[15,33184,33186,33200],{"className":33185},[927],[15,33187,33189],{"className":33188,"style":20583},[931],[15,33190,33191,33194],{"style":12769},[15,33192],{"className":33193,"style":940},[939],[15,33195,33197],{"className":33196},[944,945,946,947],[15,33198,9594],{"className":33199},[67,68,947],[15,33201,955],{"className":33202},[954],[15,33204,33206],{"className":33205},[927],[15,33207,33209],{"className":33208,"style":12809},[931],[15,33210],{},[15,33212],{"className":33213,"style":78},[77],[15,33215,98],{"className":33216,"style":128},[67,68],[15,33218,102],{"className":33219},[132],[15,33221,9594],{"className":33222},[67,68],[15,33224],{"className":33225,"style":199},[77],[15,33227,170],{"className":33228},[203],[15,33230],{"className":33231,"style":199},[77],[15,33233,33235,33238,33241,33244,33247,33321,33324,33327,33330,33333,33336,33339],{"className":33234},[58],[15,33236],{"className":33237,"style":20564},[62],[15,33239,539],{"className":33240},[67,68],[15,33242,111],{"className":33243},[148],[15,33245],{"className":33246,"style":78},[77],[15,33248,33250,33253],{"className":33249},[12747],[15,33251,20386],{"className":33252,"style":12753},[12747,12751,12752],[15,33254,33256],{"className":33255},[918],[15,33257,33259,33313],{"className":33258},[922,923],[15,33260,33262,33310],{"className":33261},[927],[15,33263,33266],{"className":33264,"style":33265},[931],"height:0.1783em;",[15,33267,33268,33271],{"style":12769},[15,33269],{"className":33270,"style":940},[939],[15,33272,33274],{"className":33273},[944,945,946,947],[15,33275,33277],{"className":33276},[67,947],[15,33278,33280,33283],{"className":33279},[67,947],[15,33281,539],{"className":33282},[67,68,947],[15,33284,33286],{"className":33285},[918],[15,33287,33289],{"className":33288},[922],[15,33290,33292],{"className":33291},[927],[15,33293,33296],{"className":33294,"style":33295},[931],"height:0.6828em;",[15,33297,33298,33301],{"style":26526},[15,33299],{"className":33300,"style":18384},[939],[15,33302,33304],{"className":33303},[944,18388,15064,947],[15,33305,33307],{"className":33306},[67,947],[15,33308,880],{"className":33309},[67,947],[15,33311,955],{"className":33312},[954],[15,33314,33316],{"className":33315},[927],[15,33317,33319],{"className":33318,"style":12809},[931],[15,33320],{},[15,33322],{"className":33323,"style":78},[77],[15,33325,98],{"className":33326,"style":128},[67,68],[15,33328,102],{"className":33329},[132],[15,33331,534],{"className":33332,"style":563},[67,68],[15,33334],{"className":33335,"style":199},[77],[15,33337,170],{"className":33338},[203],[15,33340],{"className":33341,"style":199},[77],[15,33343,33345,33348,33351,33354,33357,33389,33392,33395,33398,33430],{"className":33344},[58],[15,33346],{"className":33347,"style":980},[62],[15,33349,9594],{"className":33350},[67,68],[15,33352,42],{"className":33353},[73],[15,33355],{"className":33356,"style":78},[77],[15,33358,33360,33363],{"className":33359},[67],[15,33361,539],{"className":33362},[67,68],[15,33364,33366],{"className":33365},[918],[15,33367,33369],{"className":33368},[922],[15,33370,33372],{"className":33371},[927],[15,33373,33375],{"className":33374,"style":999},[931],[15,33376,33377,33380],{"style":1002},[15,33378],{"className":33379,"style":940},[939],[15,33381,33383],{"className":33382},[944,945,946,947],[15,33384,33386],{"className":33385},[67,947],[15,33387,880],{"className":33388},[67,947],[15,33390,111],{"className":33391},[148],[15,33393,98],{"className":33394,"style":128},[67,68],[15,33396,102],{"className":33397},[132],[15,33399,33401,33404],{"className":33400},[67],[15,33402,539],{"className":33403},[67,68],[15,33405,33407],{"className":33406},[918],[15,33408,33410],{"className":33409},[922],[15,33411,33413],{"className":33412},[927],[15,33414,33416],{"className":33415,"style":999},[931],[15,33417,33418,33421],{"style":1002},[15,33419],{"className":33420,"style":940},[939],[15,33422,33424],{"className":33423},[944,945,946,947],[15,33425,33427],{"className":33426},[67,947],[15,33428,880],{"className":33429},[67,947],[15,33431,111],{"className":33432},[148],[1314,33434,33436,33673,33679],{"title":33435},"例 3.4",[11,33437,33438,33439,33467,33468,33519,33520,33571,33572,1398,33644,33672],{},"回到例 1.2 的吸烟模型，但这次显式承认存在未观测的混杂：设 ",[15,33440,33442,33455],{"className":33441,"translate":19},[18],[15,33443,33445],{"className":33444},[23],[25,33446,33447],{"xmlns":27},[29,33448,33449,33453],{},[32,33450,33451],{},[35,33452,2454],{},[47,33454,2454],{"encoding":49},[15,33456,33458],{"className":33457,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,33459,33461,33464],{"className":33460},[58],[15,33462],{"className":33463,"style":299},[62],[15,33465,2454],{"className":33466,"style":2566},[67,68]," 为不可观测的遗传因素，",[15,33469,33471,33489],{"className":33470,"translate":19},[18],[15,33472,33474],{"className":33473},[23],[25,33475,33476],{"xmlns":27},[29,33477,33478,33486],{},[32,33479,33480,33482,33484],{},[35,33481,2454],{},[39,33483,1844],{},[35,33485,37],{},[47,33487,33488],{"encoding":49},"U \\to X",[15,33490,33492,33510],{"className":33491,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,33493,33495,33498,33501,33504,33507],{"className":33494},[58],[15,33496],{"className":33497,"style":299},[62],[15,33499,2454],{"className":33500,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,33502],{"className":33503,"style":199},[77],[15,33505,1844],{"className":33506},[203],[15,33508],{"className":33509,"style":199},[77],[15,33511,33513,33516],{"className":33512},[58],[15,33514],{"className":33515,"style":299},[62],[15,33517,37],{"className":33518,"style":69},[67,68],"（吸烟）且 ",[15,33521,33523,33541],{"className":33522,"translate":19},[18],[15,33524,33526],{"className":33525},[23],[25,33527,33528],{"xmlns":27},[29,33529,33530,33538],{},[32,33531,33532,33534,33536],{},[35,33533,2454],{},[39,33535,1844],{},[35,33537,45],{},[47,33539,33540],{"encoding":49},"U \\to Y",[15,33542,33544,33562],{"className":33543,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,33545,33547,33550,33553,33556,33559],{"className":33546},[58],[15,33548],{"className":33549,"style":299},[62],[15,33551,2454],{"className":33552,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,33554],{"className":33555,"style":199},[77],[15,33557,1844],{"className":33558},[203],[15,33560],{"className":33561,"style":199},[77],[15,33563,33565,33568],{"className":33564},[58],[15,33566],{"className":33567,"style":299},[62],[15,33569,45],{"className":33570,"style":82},[67,68],"（肺癌）；已知的结构为 ",[15,33573,33575,33596],{"className":33574,"translate":19},[18],[15,33576,33578],{"className":33577},[23],[25,33579,33580],{"xmlns":27},[29,33581,33582,33594],{},[32,33583,33584,33586,33588,33590,33592],{},[35,33585,37],{},[39,33587,1844],{},[35,33589,9452],{},[39,33591,1844],{},[35,33593,45],{},[47,33595,26202],{"encoding":49},[15,33597,33599,33617,33635],{"className":33598,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,33600,33602,33605,33608,33611,33614],{"className":33601},[58],[15,33603],{"className":33604,"style":299},[62],[15,33606,37],{"className":33607,"style":69},[67,68],[15,33609],{"className":33610,"style":199},[77],[15,33612,1844],{"className":33613},[203],[15,33615],{"className":33616,"style":199},[77],[15,33618,33620,33623,33626,33629,33632],{"className":33619},[58],[15,33621],{"className":33622,"style":299},[62],[15,33624,9452],{"className":33625,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,33627],{"className":33628,"style":199},[77],[15,33630,1844],{"className":33631},[203],[15,33633],{"className":33634,"style":199},[77],[15,33636,33638,33641],{"className":33637},[58],[15,33639],{"className":33640,"style":299},[62],[15,33642,45],{"className":33643,"style":82},[67,68],[15,33645,33647,33660],{"className":33646,"translate":19},[18],[15,33648,33650],{"className":33649},[23],[25,33651,33652],{"xmlns":27},[29,33653,33654,33658],{},[32,33655,33656],{},[35,33657,9452],{},[47,33659,9452],{"encoding":49},[15,33661,33663],{"className":33662,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,33664,33666,33669],{"className":33665},[58],[15,33667],{"className":33668,"style":299},[62],[15,33670,9452],{"className":33671,"style":2566},[67,68]," 为焦油沉积。",[4108,33674,33675],{},[4111,33676],{"height":26306,"width":33677,"style":4115,"data-d2-theme":4116,"alt":4117,"src":33678},462,"data:image\u002Fsvg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iNDYyIiBoZWlnaHQ9IjgyIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciIGRhdGEtZDItdmVyc2lvbj0idjAuOS4wIiB2aWV3Qm94PSIwIDAgNDYyIDgyIj48c3ZnIHdpZHRoPSI0NjIiIGhlaWdodD0iODIiIGNsYXNzPSJkMi0xNzczMTc3MDQ1IGQyLXN2ZyIgdmlld0JveD0iLTEgLTExIDQ2MiA4MiI+PHJlY3Qgd2lkdGg9IjQ2MiIgaGVpZ2h0PSI4MiIgeD0iLTEiIHk9Ii0xMSIgc3Ryb2tlLXdpZHRoPSIwIiByeD0iMCIgc3R5bGU9ImZpbGw6I2ZmZiIvPjxzdHlsZT4uZDItMTc3MzE3NzA0NSAudGV4dC1ib2xke2ZvbnQtZmFtaWx5OiZxdW90O2QyLTE3NzMxNzcwNDUtZm9udC1ib2xkJnF1b3Q7fUBmb250LWZhY2V7Zm9udC1mYW1pbHk6ZDItMTc3MzE3NzA0NS1mb250LWJvbGQ7c3JjOnVybChkYXRhOmFwcGxpY2F0aW9uL2ZvbnQtd29mZjtiYXNlNjQsZDA5R1JnQUJBQUFBQUFjUUFBb0FBQUFBQzh3QUFndUZBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUJQVXk4eUFBQUE5QUFBQUdBQUFBQmdYeEhYcm1OdFlYQUFBQUZVQUFBQVJnQUFBRVlBYlFFQVoyeDVaZ0FBQVp3QUFBR0hBQUFCa0kvQW9QZG9aV0ZrQUFBREpBQUFBRFlBQUFBMkczOGUxR2hvWldFQUFBTmNBQUFBSkFBQUFDUUtmd1hFYUcxMGVBQUFBNEFBQUFBVUFBQUFGQXlLQU9sc2IyTmhBQUFEbEFBQUFBd0FBQUFNQVFnQmNHMWhlSEFBQUFPZ0FBQUFJQUFBQUNBQUhRRDNibUZ0WlFBQUE4QUFBQU12QUFBSUtnandWa0Z3YjNOMEFBQUc4QUFBQUNBQUFBQWcvOUVBTWdBREFpb0N2QUFGQUFBQ2lnSllBQUFBU3dLS0FsZ0FBQUZlQURJQktRQUFBZ3NIQXdNRUF3SUNCR0FBQXZjQUFBQURBQUFBQUFBQUFBQkJSRUpQQUNBQUlQLy9BdTcvQmdBQUE5Z0JFU0FBQVo4QUFBQUFBZkFDbEFBQUFDQUFBd0FBQUFFQUF3QUJBQUFBREFBRUFEb0FBQUFJQUFnQUFnQUFBRTBBVlFCWi8vOEFBQUJOQUZVQVdQLy8vN1QvcmYrckFBRUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUJBQUlBQXdBRUFBQUFBSGljVk02eGF4TlJBTWZ4MzN2M21tZnZtcFNYZUhjWXdsM3NJL2VJT1BrdTk3Q3hCWWNPUW1QaXJHMUtGaEYwMHNrT0R0Sk9wNHZoRUl0RjVSd1UzQlMwNk5oL3c3bGJGeEU3OUZVcUx0MSswK2YzeFF4R0FKM1FLUnpNWWg1MStJQVdGMFZIS3lXNTBjYkkwREdLQ0Q2aWRmdStWRjNXN2JKTDdaZng0L0dZRE5icDlQais3Y0ZrOG52Yzc5dmRiM3YyR1htNEJ4QU1BUHFKNW9oUFBkMElnbEJubVdsb0lYdHBsaG5KdVZSS1J0VDNCMi92dVhXWHVjSzkrMmFienpxc3QzWnJMV1hzSEtlNS9kbGFqcUxsRmxrNGZuVFlIbzdpbmFPam5YZzBiQitlZnR3NCtVV0hOSWNBWmhhU250RGlmS0N2WlA5R2hkeDhzajFkTk9iYTg2ZHpSVW5XN1l1TjFkVU44c0MrS3dzUWVBQzlUSE5jQUhURDBlSC9RS09kaGxSSm9tU2x3cm4zNVdONTFRdXJ6UFBkOVBXSHorWDF1YkRHdk1CYklrT3l0Qm1rY1p3R20vYTcvYnJWMUZHa20xc0F5TWtmZ1BvMHh6eWdlMmRzLzhmKzdtS3RXV1cxVnJYL2F2K0FsRVZuSlVsV09vVzljd0Q4QlFBQS8vOERBTEhJWHFBQUFBRUFBQUFDQzRWT1BJL2xYdzg4OVFBQkErZ0FBQUFBMkYyZ2hBQUFBQURkWmk4Mi9qZit4QWh0QS9FQUFRQURBQUlBQUFBQUFBQUFBUUFBQTlqKzd3QUFDSmorTi80M0NHMEFBUUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBVUNzZ0JRQXZvQVRRS1pBRWtDTndBTEFnMy8rQUFBQUN3QVhnQjhBS29BeUFBQkFBQUFCUUNRQUF3QVl3QUhBQUVBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUJBQURlSnljbE05dUcyVVV4WDlPYk5NS3dRSkZWYnFKdmdXTElyVmpVeVZWMjZ3bXBGWkdSSEh3dUNBa2hEUzJKN2JsOGN6SU0zWWFub0ExYjhGYmRNVkQ4QnlJTmJyWDE2NWRFQVVyaW5WbTV2NDUzN25uZnNBQmY3SlBwWG9mK0syZUdxNXdWTDgydk1lOStvWGhmVnIxUGNOVkh0VitOMXhqVUZzWXJ2TjVyV1A0STk1V2Z6RjhqK1BxajRidmMxaHRHZjZZcDlVRHc1L3NPLzR3L0NuSHZGM2lDanpuWjhNVkRza043M0hBRDRiM2VZRFZyRlI1UU5Od2pjODRNbHpuQ09neXBpUmhUTW9ReHcxamhzeVpFVk1RRWpOanpBMHhBeHdCUGdtbHZrMkpGRG1HLy9nMklxUmtScVFWUjVRNEVrSVNJZ3BHVnZFbnpjcTQxbzdTWjZaSXV2bVVqSWpvYWNhRWlCUkh4cENNbEppSjFpa3B5WGxKZ3dZRmZlV2JVMUxnVVRBbXdTTmp4cEFHYlZwYzBtWEVtQUpIU3lzSnM1Q01HMHB1aWJTL3N3aFJwazlNU21HczVxUU1sS2RUZnJGbUIxemlhSk5yN0dibHk2MEtqM0Y4cTluQ1RXSWNYK0xwdjl0Z3R0MTN4U1ppb1hxS2hqMFM1WG1yRXh5cDR0TFg1eHZGSlM5eE8rbXp6ZVRER2cyVW5jeDZUSSs1emwvbUozbkNKTVc1UTN4Q2RWRG9IdUk0MCtlQVVCWDVqb0F1RjdSNVRWZWZmVHAwOExtaVM4QXJ6VzNUd2ZFVmJhNDQxNHhBOGZKYlN4MXp4ZmM0dmliUUdLa2RtejZpdVR5OUlUZDNDM2R4aHB4alNxNWJJRE9XODR2ejQ1MG1MRHVVYmJtalVGZjBkWThrVXZaQVZKRTlpeGlhSzNKMXhWUzFYSG1qTVAwRzVnajVXdXBzMzMyWGJWalk3cTIyK0k1TWQ5Z3hOMDR5dVNXakQwM1ZlODh6dC9ybkVURWdvNmNSZlRLbU5DaTUwN05kRXpFbndYR3VQcjdRTFNueDF6blM1MDVkRWpOVkJnR3AxcG1SNjI5a3ZnbU5lMy9MOTg3dUV0bThxZTdvWkgycVhicEk1WFJqUnE5VnZkVzMwRlNPTnliUXNLbG1saU1UbHNyTGs0cjNKZHJiNGgrcSt3dTkzVEtlY0VaR3d1QnZOOEJUUEpvY2M4SXBJKzBnbFZNV2RqczA5WVpvOG9KVFBmMkVXS1Brdm55ak9rbUZFenllY2NJSkwzajJubzRySnM2NHVEV1h6ZDQrNTV6UjV2US9uV0laMythTVYrdDMvOTcxVjJYYTFMTTRucXlmbnU4OHhVZi93NjFmOEhqcnZ1em9MU0NiczdCcTc3Ymlpb2lwY0hHSG0xcTRoM2gvQVFBQS8vOERBUFMzVDFFQUFBTUFBQUFBQUFEL3pnQXlBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUE9KX0uY29ubmVjdGlvbiwuc2hhcGV7c3Ryb2tlLWxpbmVqb2luOnJvdW5kfS5zaGFwZXtzaGFwZS1yZW5kZXJpbmc6Z2VvbWV0cmljUHJlY2lzaW9ufS5jb25uZWN0aW9ue3N0cm9rZS1saW5lY2FwOnJvdW5kfS5kMi0xNzczMTc3MDQ1IC5maWxsLU4xe2ZpbGw6IzBhMGYyNX0uZDItMTc3MzE3NzA0NSAuc3Ryb2tlLUIxe3N0cm9rZTojMGQzMmIyfTwvc3R5bGU+PGcgY2xhc3M9IlZRPT0gdW5vYnNlcnZlZF9ub2RlIiBzdHlsZT0ib3BhY2l0eTouNyI+PGcgY2xhc3M9InNoYXBlIj48Y2lyY2xlIGN4PSIyMCIgY3k9IjIwIiByPSIyMCIgZmlsbD0iI2QzZDNkMyIgY2xhc3M9InNoYXBlIiBzdHlsZT0ic3Ryb2tlOiMwZDMyYjI7c3Ryb2tlLXdpZHRoOjI7c3Ryb2tlLWRhc2hhcnJheToxMCw5Ljg2NTYzOSIvPjwvZz48dGV4dCB4PSIyMCIgeT0iMjUuNSIgZmlsbD0iZ3JheSIgY2xhc3M9InRleHQtYm9sZCIgc3R5bGU9InRleHQtYW5jaG9yOm1pZGRsZTtmb250LXNpemU6MTZweCI+VTwvdGV4dD48L2c+PGcgY2xhc3M9IldBPT0gb2JzZXJ2ZWRfbm9kZSI+PGcgY2xhc3M9InNoYXBlIj48Y2lyY2xlIGN4PSIxNjAiIGN5PSI1MCIgcj0iMjAiIGZpbGw9IiNhZGQ4ZTYiIHN0cm9rZT0iIzBkMzJiMiIgY2xhc3M9InNoYXBlIHN0cm9rZS1CMSIgc3R5bGU9InN0cm9rZS13aWR0aDoyIi8+PC9nPjx0ZXh0IHg9IjE2MCIgeT0iNTUuNSIgZmlsbD0iIzBhMGYyNSIgY2xhc3M9InRleHQtYm9sZCBmaWxsLU4xIiBzdHlsZT0idGV4dC1hbmNob3I6bWlkZGxlO2ZvbnQtc2l6ZToxNnB4Ij5YPC90ZXh0PjwvZz48ZyBjbGFzcz0iVFE9PSBvYnNlcnZlZF9ub2RlIj48ZyBjbGFzcz0ic2hhcGUiPjxjaXJjbGUgY3g9IjMwMCIgY3k9IjUwIiByPSIyMCIgZmlsbD0iI2FkZDhlNiIgc3Ryb2tlPSIjMGQzMmIyIiBjbGFzcz0ic2hhcGUgc3Ryb2tlLUIxIiBzdHlsZT0ic3Ryb2tlLXdpZHRoOjIiLz48L2c+PHRleHQgeD0iMzAwIiB5PSI1NS41IiBmaWxsPSIjMGEwZjI1IiBjbGFzcz0idGV4dC1ib2xkIGZpbGwtTjEiIHN0eWxlPSJ0ZXh0LWFuY2hvcjptaWRkbGU7Zm9udC1zaXplOjE2cHgiPk08L3RleHQ+PC9nPjxnIGNsYXNzPSJXUT09IG9ic2VydmVkX25vZGUiPjxnIGNsYXNzPSJzaGFwZSI+PGNpcmNsZSBjeD0iNDQwIiBjeT0iMjAiIHI9IjIwIiBmaWxsPSIjYWRkOGU2IiBzdHJva2U9IiMwZDMyYjIiIGNsYXNzPSJzaGFwZSBzdHJva2UtQjEiIHN0eWxlPSJzdHJva2Utd2lkdGg6MiIvPjwvZz48dGV4dCB4PSI0NDAiIHk9IjI1LjUiIGZpbGw9IiMwYTBmMjUiIGNsYXNzPSJ0ZXh0LWJvbGQgZmlsbC1OMSIgc3R5bGU9InRleHQtYW5jaG9yOm1pZGRsZTtmb250LXNpemU6MTZweCI+WTwvdGV4dD48L2c+PGcgY2xhc3M9IktGVWdMU1puZERzZ1dDbGJNRjA9Ij48bWFya2VyIGlkPSJtay1kMi0xNzczMTc3MDQ1LTM0ODgzNzgxMzQiIG1hcmtlckhlaWdodD0iMTIiIG1hcmtlclVuaXRzPSJ1c2VyU3BhY2VPblVzZSIgbWFya2VyV2lkdGg9IjEwIiBvcmllbnQ9ImF1dG8iIHJlZlg9IjciIHJlZlk9IjYiIHZpZXdCb3g9IjAgMCAxMCAxMiI+PHBhdGggc3Ryb2tlLXdpZHRoPSIyIiBkPSJtMCAwIDEwIDYtMTAgNnoiIGNsYXNzPSJjb25uZWN0aW9uIiBzdHlsZT0iZmlsbDojMGQzMmIyIi8+PC9tYXJrZXI+PHBhdGggZmlsbD0ibm9uZSIgc3Ryb2tlPSIjMGQzMmIyIiBtYXJrZXItZW5kPSJ1cmwoI21rLWQyLTE3NzMxNzcwNDUtMzQ4ODM3ODEzNCkiIGQ9Ik0zOS44NDIgMjguNzhDNzkuNiA0NS42IDEwMCA1MCAxMzYgNTAiIGNsYXNzPSJjb25uZWN0aW9uIHN0cm9rZS1CMSIgbWFzaz0idXJsKCNkMi0xNzczMTc3MDQ1KSIgc3R5bGU9InN0cm9rZS13aWR0aDoyIi8+PC9nPjxnIGNsYXNzPSJLRlVnTFNabmREc2dXU2xiTUYwPSI+PHBhdGggZmlsbD0ibm9uZSIgc3Ryb2tlPSIjMGQzMmIyIiBtYXJrZXItZW5kPSJ1cmwoI21rLWQyLTE3NzMxNzcwNDUtMzQ4ODM3ODEzNCkiIGQ9Ik0zOS44NDIgMTEuMjJDNzkuNi01LjYgMTA0LTEwIDEyNS0xMGgxNDBjMjEgMCAxMTUuNCA0LjQgMTUzLjMxNiAyMC40NDEiIGNsYXNzPSJjb25uZWN0aW9uIHN0cm9rZS1CMSIgbWFzaz0idXJsKCNkMi0xNzczMTc3MDQ1KSIgc3R5bGU9InN0cm9rZS13aWR0aDoyIi8+PC9nPjxnIGNsYXNzPSJLRmdnTFNabmREc2dUU2xiTUYwPSI+PHBhdGggZmlsbD0ibm9uZSIgc3Ryb2tlPSIjMGQzMmIyIiBtYXJrZXItZW5kPSJ1cmwoI21rLWQyLTE3NzMxNzcwNDUtMzQ4ODM3ODEzNCkiIGQ9Ik0xODIgNTBoOTQiIGNsYXNzPSJjb25uZWN0aW9uIHN0cm9rZS1CMSIgbWFzaz0idXJsKCNkMi0xNzczMTc3MDQ1KSIgc3R5bGU9InN0cm9rZS13aWR0aDoyIi8+PC9nPjxnIGNsYXNzPSJLRTBnTFNabmREc2dXU2xiTUYwPSI+PHBhdGggZmlsbD0ibm9uZSIgc3Ryb2tlPSIjMGQzMmIyIiBtYXJrZXItZW5kPSJ1cmwoI21rLWQyLTE3NzMxNzcwNDUtMzQ4ODM3ODEzNCkiIGQ9Ik0zMjIgNTBjMzggMCA1OC40LTQuNCA5Ni4zMTYtMjAuNDQxIiBjbGFzcz0iY29ubmVjdGlvbiBzdHJva2UtQjEiIG1hc2s9InVybCgjZDItMTc3MzE3NzA0NSkiIHN0eWxlPSJzdHJva2Utd2lkdGg6MiIvPjwvZz48bWFzayBpZD0iZDItMTc3MzE3NzA0NSIgd2lkdGg9IjQ2MiIgaGVpZ2h0PSI4MiIgeD0iLTEiIHk9Ii0xMSIgbWFza1VuaXRzPSJ1c2VyU3BhY2VPblVzZSI+PHBhdGggZmlsbD0iI2ZmZiIgZD0iTS0xLTExaDQ2MnY4MkgtMXoiLz48L21hc2s+PC9zdmc+PC9zdmc+",[11,33680,33681,33682,431,33710,33738,33739,33812,33813,33841,33842,33870,33871,6657,33943,2352,33971,33999,34000,34028,34029,34448,34449,34452],{},"此时 ",[15,33683,33685,33698],{"className":33684,"translate":19},[18],[15,33686,33688],{"className":33687},[23],[25,33689,33690],{"xmlns":27},[29,33691,33692,33696],{},[32,33693,33694],{},[35,33695,37],{},[47,33697,37],{"encoding":49},[15,33699,33701],{"className":33700,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,33702,33704,33707],{"className":33703},[58],[15,33705],{"className":33706,"style":299},[62],[15,33708,37],{"className":33709,"style":69},[67,68],[15,33711,33713,33726],{"className":33712,"translate":19},[18],[15,33714,33716],{"className":33715},[23],[25,33717,33718],{"xmlns":27},[29,33719,33720,33724],{},[32,33721,33722],{},[35,33723,45],{},[47,33725,45],{"encoding":49},[15,33727,33729],{"className":33728,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,33730,33732,33735],{"className":33731},[58],[15,33733],{"className":33734,"style":299},[62],[15,33736,45],{"className":33737,"style":82},[67,68]," 之间的后门路径 ",[15,33740,33742,33764],{"className":33741,"translate":19},[18],[15,33743,33745],{"className":33744},[23],[25,33746,33747],{"xmlns":27},[29,33748,33749,33761],{},[32,33750,33751,33753,33755,33757,33759],{},[35,33752,37],{},[39,33754,4876],{},[35,33756,2454],{},[39,33758,1844],{},[35,33760,45],{},[47,33762,33763],{"encoding":49},"X \\leftarrow U \\to Y",[15,33765,33767,33785,33803],{"className":33766,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,33768,33770,33773,33776,33779,33782],{"className":33769},[58],[15,33771],{"className":33772,"style":299},[62],[15,33774,37],{"className":33775,"style":69},[67,68],[15,33777],{"className":33778,"style":199},[77],[15,33780,4876],{"className":33781},[203],[15,33783],{"className":33784,"style":199},[77],[15,33786,33788,33791,33794,33797,33800],{"className":33787},[58],[15,33789],{"className":33790,"style":299},[62],[15,33792,2454],{"className":33793,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,33795],{"className":33796,"style":199},[77],[15,33798,1844],{"className":33799},[203],[15,33801],{"className":33802,"style":199},[77],[15,33804,33806,33809],{"className":33805},[58],[15,33807],{"className":33808,"style":299},[62],[15,33810,45],{"className":33811,"style":82},[67,68]," 无法被阻断（",[15,33814,33816,33829],{"className":33815,"translate":19},[18],[15,33817,33819],{"className":33818},[23],[25,33820,33821],{"xmlns":27},[29,33822,33823,33827],{},[32,33824,33825],{},[35,33826,2454],{},[47,33828,2454],{"encoding":49},[15,33830,33832],{"className":33831,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,33833,33835,33838],{"className":33834},[58],[15,33836],{"className":33837,"style":299},[62],[15,33839,2454],{"className":33840,"style":2566},[67,68]," 不可观测），后门准则失效。但 ",[15,33843,33845,33858],{"className":33844,"translate":19},[18],[15,33846,33848],{"className":33847},[23],[25,33849,33850],{"xmlns":27},[29,33851,33852,33856],{},[32,33853,33854],{},[35,33855,9452],{},[47,33857,9452],{"encoding":49},[15,33859,33861],{"className":33860,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,33862,33864,33867],{"className":33863},[58],[15,33865],{"className":33866,"style":299},[62],[15,33868,9452],{"className":33869,"style":2566},[67,68]," 阻断了唯一的因果路径 ",[15,33872,33874,33895],{"className":33873,"translate":19},[18],[15,33875,33877],{"className":33876},[23],[25,33878,33879],{"xmlns":27},[29,33880,33881,33893],{},[32,33882,33883,33885,33887,33889,33891],{},[35,33884,37],{},[39,33886,1844],{},[35,33888,9452],{},[39,33890,1844],{},[35,33892,45],{},[47,33894,26202],{"encoding":49},[15,33896,33898,33916,33934],{"className":33897,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,33899,33901,33904,33907,33910,33913],{"className":33900},[58],[15,33902],{"className":33903,"style":299},[62],[15,33905,37],{"className":33906,"style":69},[67,68],[15,33908],{"className":33909,"style":199},[77],[15,33911,1844],{"className":33912},[203],[15,33914],{"className":33915,"style":199},[77],[15,33917,33919,33922,33925,33928,33931],{"className":33918},[58],[15,33920],{"className":33921,"style":299},[62],[15,33923,9452],{"className":33924,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,33926],{"className":33927,"style":199},[77],[15,33929,1844],{"className":33930},[203],[15,33932],{"className":33933,"style":199},[77],[15,33935,33937,33940],{"className":33936},[58],[15,33938],{"className":33939,"style":299},[62],[15,33941,45],{"className":33942,"style":82},[67,68],[15,33944,33946,33959],{"className":33945,"translate":19},[18],[15,33947,33949],{"className":33948},[23],[25,33950,33951],{"xmlns":27},[29,33952,33953,33957],{},[32,33954,33955],{},[35,33956,9452],{},[47,33958,9452],{"encoding":49},[15,33960,33962],{"className":33961,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,33963,33965,33968],{"className":33964},[58],[15,33966],{"className":33967,"style":299},[62],[15,33969,9452],{"className":33970,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,33972,33974,33987],{"className":33973,"translate":19},[18],[15,33975,33977],{"className":33976},[23],[25,33978,33979],{"xmlns":27},[29,33980,33981,33985],{},[32,33982,33983],{},[35,33984,45],{},[47,33986,45],{"encoding":49},[15,33988,33990],{"className":33989,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,33991,33993,33996],{"className":33992},[58],[15,33994],{"className":33995,"style":299},[62],[15,33997,45],{"className":33998,"style":82},[67,68]," 不存在除经由 ",[15,34001,34003,34016],{"className":34002,"translate":19},[18],[15,34004,34006],{"className":34005},[23],[25,34007,34008],{"xmlns":27},[29,34009,34010,34014],{},[32,34011,34012],{},[35,34013,37],{},[47,34015,37],{"encoding":49},[15,34017,34019],{"className":34018,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,34020,34022,34025],{"className":34021},[58],[15,34023],{"className":34024,"style":299},[62],[15,34026,37],{"className":34027,"style":69},[67,68]," 之外的后门路径，因此前门准则给出\n",[15,34030,34032,34125],{"className":34031,"translate":19},[18],[15,34033,34035],{"className":34034},[23],[25,34036,34037],{"xmlns":27},[29,34038,34039,34123],{},[32,34040,34041,34043,34045,34047,34049,34051,34053,34055,34057,34059,34061,34063,34069,34071,34073,34075,34077,34079,34081,34091,34093,34095,34097,34099,34101,34103,34109,34111,34113,34115,34121],{},[35,34042,98],{},[39,34044,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,34046,534],{},[39,34048,170],{},[35,34050,696],{},[35,34052,699],{},[39,34054,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,34056,539],{},[39,34058,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,34060,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,34062,602],{},[863,34064,34065,34067],{},[39,34066,20386],{},[35,34068,9594],{},[35,34070,98],{},[39,34072,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,34074,9594],{},[39,34076,170],{},[35,34078,539],{},[39,34080,111],{"stretchy":101},[863,34082,34083,34085],{},[39,34084,20386],{},[872,34086,34087,34089],{},[35,34088,539],{},[39,34090,880],{"mathvariant":878,"lspace":879,"rspace":879},[35,34092,98],{},[39,34094,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,34096,534],{},[39,34098,170],{},[35,34100,9594],{},[39,34102,42],{"separator":41},[872,34104,34105,34107],{},[35,34106,539],{},[39,34108,880],{"mathvariant":878,"lspace":879,"rspace":879},[39,34110,111],{"stretchy":101},[35,34112,98],{},[39,34114,102],{"stretchy":101},[872,34116,34117,34119],{},[35,34118,539],{},[39,34120,880],{"mathvariant":878,"lspace":879,"rspace":879},[39,34122,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,34124,33107],{"encoding":49},[15,34126,34128,34152,34182,34249,34357],{"className":34127,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,34129,34131,34134,34137,34140,34143,34146,34149],{"className":34130},[58],[15,34132],{"className":34133,"style":124},[62],[15,34135,98],{"className":34136,"style":128},[67,68],[15,34138,102],{"className":34139},[132],[15,34141,534],{"className":34142,"style":563},[67,68],[15,34144],{"className":34145,"style":199},[77],[15,34147,170],{"className":34148},[203],[15,34150],{"className":34151,"style":199},[77],[15,34153,34155,34158,34161,34164,34167,34170,34173,34176,34179],{"className":34154},[58],[15,34156],{"className":34157,"style":124},[62],[15,34159,696],{"className":34160},[67,68],[15,34162,699],{"className":34163},[67,68],[15,34165,102],{"className":34166},[132],[15,34168,539],{"className":34169},[67,68],[15,34171,759],{"className":34172},[148],[15,34174],{"className":34175,"style":199},[77],[15,34177,602],{"className":34178},[203],[15,34180],{"className":34181,"style":199},[77],[15,34183,34185,34188,34228,34231,34234,34237,34240,34243,34246],{"className":34184},[58],[15,34186],{"className":34187,"style":20564},[62],[15,34189,34191,34194],{"className":34190},[12747],[15,34192,20386],{"className":34193,"style":12753},[12747,12751,12752],[15,34195,34197],{"className":34196},[918],[15,34198,34200,34220],{"className":34199},[922,923],[15,34201,34203,34217],{"className":34202},[927],[15,34204,34206],{"className":34205,"style":20583},[931],[15,34207,34208,34211],{"style":12769},[15,34209],{"className":34210,"style":940},[939],[15,34212,34214],{"className":34213},[944,945,946,947],[15,34215,9594],{"className":34216},[67,68,947],[15,34218,955],{"className":34219},[954],[15,34221,34223],{"className":34222},[927],[15,34224,34226],{"className":34225,"style":12809},[931],[15,34227],{},[15,34229],{"className":34230,"style":78},[77],[15,34232,98],{"className":34233,"style":128},[67,68],[15,34235,102],{"className":34236},[132],[15,34238,9594],{"className":34239},[67,68],[15,34241],{"className":34242,"style":199},[77],[15,34244,170],{"className":34245},[203],[15,34247],{"className":34248,"style":199},[77],[15,34250,34252,34255,34258,34261,34264,34336,34339,34342,34345,34348,34351,34354],{"className":34251},[58],[15,34253],{"className":34254,"style":20564},[62],[15,34256,539],{"className":34257},[67,68],[15,34259,111],{"className":34260},[148],[15,34262],{"className":34263,"style":78},[77],[15,34265,34267,34270],{"className":34266},[12747],[15,34268,20386],{"className":34269,"style":12753},[12747,12751,12752],[15,34271,34273],{"className":34272},[918],[15,34274,34276,34328],{"className":34275},[922,923],[15,34277,34279,34325],{"className":34278},[927],[15,34280,34282],{"className":34281,"style":33265},[931],[15,34283,34284,34287],{"style":12769},[15,34285],{"className":34286,"style":940},[939],[15,34288,34290],{"className":34289},[944,945,946,947],[15,34291,34293],{"className":34292},[67,947],[15,34294,34296,34299],{"className":34295},[67,947],[15,34297,539],{"className":34298},[67,68,947],[15,34300,34302],{"className":34301},[918],[15,34303,34305],{"className":34304},[922],[15,34306,34308],{"className":34307},[927],[15,34309,34311],{"className":34310,"style":33295},[931],[15,34312,34313,34316],{"style":26526},[15,34314],{"className":34315,"style":18384},[939],[15,34317,34319],{"className":34318},[944,18388,15064,947],[15,34320,34322],{"className":34321},[67,947],[15,34323,880],{"className":34324},[67,947],[15,34326,955],{"className":34327},[954],[15,34329,34331],{"className":34330},[927],[15,34332,34334],{"className":34333,"style":12809},[931],[15,34335],{},[15,34337],{"className":34338,"style":78},[77],[15,34340,98],{"className":34341,"style":128},[67,68],[15,34343,102],{"className":34344},[132],[15,34346,534],{"className":34347,"style":563},[67,68],[15,34349],{"className":34350,"style":199},[77],[15,34352,170],{"className":34353},[203],[15,34355],{"className":34356,"style":199},[77],[15,34358,34360,34363,34366,34369,34372,34404,34407,34410,34413,34445],{"className":34359},[58],[15,34361],{"className":34362,"style":980},[62],[15,34364,9594],{"className":34365},[67,68],[15,34367,42],{"className":34368},[73],[15,34370],{"className":34371,"style":78},[77],[15,34373,34375,34378],{"className":34374},[67],[15,34376,539],{"className":34377},[67,68],[15,34379,34381],{"className":34380},[918],[15,34382,34384],{"className":34383},[922],[15,34385,34387],{"className":34386},[927],[15,34388,34390],{"className":34389,"style":999},[931],[15,34391,34392,34395],{"style":1002},[15,34393],{"className":34394,"style":940},[939],[15,34396,34398],{"className":34397},[944,945,946,947],[15,34399,34401],{"className":34400},[67,947],[15,34402,880],{"className":34403},[67,947],[15,34405,111],{"className":34406},[148],[15,34408,98],{"className":34409,"style":128},[67,68],[15,34411,102],{"className":34412},[132],[15,34414,34416,34419],{"className":34415},[67],[15,34417,539],{"className":34418},[67,68],[15,34420,34422],{"className":34421},[918],[15,34423,34425],{"className":34424},[922],[15,34426,34428],{"className":34427},[927],[15,34429,34431],{"className":34430,"style":999},[931],[15,34432,34433,34436],{"style":1002},[15,34434],{"className":34435,"style":940},[939],[15,34437,34439],{"className":34438},[944,945,946,947],[15,34440,34442],{"className":34441},[67,947],[15,34443,880],{"className":34444},[67,947],[15,34446,111],{"className":34447},[148],"\n即：",[305,34450,34451],{},"即便存在不可观测的混杂，只要有一个满足前门条件的中介变量，吸烟对肺癌的因果效应仍然可以从纯观测数据中识别出来。"," 这是因果图相对于纯统计框架的一个相当反直觉的力量所在——它把「哪些数据是可用的」与「哪些机制是可靠的」分开处理，从而在因果推断看似无从下手之处找回了一条通路。",[11,34454,34455],{},"前门准则同时也是 2.1 节中「半马尔可夫型 SCM」这一概念唯一的实际用武之地：当外生变量之间存在相关的隐藏噪声时，正是这类准则在继续保证可识别性。但必须强调，前门准则的适用面很窄——它要求恰好存在一个阻断全部因果路径的中介变量，并且该中介与结果之间不存在未观测的混杂。对一般结构的半马尔可夫型 SCM，可识别性并不自动成立。",[11,34457,34458,34459,34487,34488,34491],{},"这一准则将第一部分中「该控制哪些变量」的图论直觉，与第三部分的干预定义精确对接：叉结构中的混杂因子正是典型的满足后门准则的调整集合，而对撞结构中的变量则应被排除在 ",[15,34460,34462,34475],{"className":34461,"translate":19},[18],[15,34463,34465],{"className":34464},[23],[25,34466,34467],{"xmlns":27},[29,34468,34469,34473],{},[32,34470,34471],{},[35,34472,3769],{},[47,34474,3769],{"encoding":49},[15,34476,34478],{"className":34477,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,34479,34481,34484],{"className":34480},[58],[15,34482],{"className":34483,"style":299},[62],[15,34485,3769],{"className":34486,"style":1394},[67,68]," 之外。这一对应关系并非巧合：",[305,34489,34490],{},"满足后门准则的调整集合，正是一个能够阻断全部非因果路径的 d-分离集合","，第一部分与第三部分在此处精确接榫。至此，本文从因果图出发、经由结构因果模型、最终落脚于结构方程与 do-演算的逻辑链条已经闭合。剩下要问的是：这一体系与统计学、计量经济学中既有的因果推断工具相比处于什么位置，以及它的成立依赖哪些假设。",[1305,34493,34494],{"id":34494},"相邻框架与适用边界",[11,34496,34497],{},"本文至此勾勒的是一套自洽的形式化体系。但因果推断在统计学、计量经济学与机器学习中并非只有这一种语言。本部分把它与两个最重要的相邻传统作对照，说明各自的着眼点与互补之处，最后梳理该体系成立所依赖的假设与边界。",[1309,34499,34501],{"id":34500},"_41-潜在结果框架一种等价的语言","4.1 潜在结果框架：一种等价的语言",[11,34503,34504,34505,34508],{},"与结构因果模型并行发展的，是由 Rubin 等人推动的",[305,34506,34507],{},"潜在结果框架（Potential Outcome Framework，亦称 Rubin 因果模型）","。它不诉诸图，而是从个体层面的潜在结果出发：",[1314,34510,34512],{"title":34511},"定义 4.1（潜在结果与因果效应）",[11,34513,6344,34514,34588,34589,34617,34618,34703,34704,34789,34790,34953,34954,2247],{},[15,34515,34517,34543],{"className":34516,"translate":19},[18],[15,34518,34520],{"className":34519},[23],[25,34521,34522],{"xmlns":27},[29,34523,34524,34540],{},[32,34525,34526,34528,34530,34532,34534,34536,34538],{},[35,34527,37],{},[39,34529,1694],{},[39,34531,1417],{"stretchy":101},[1423,34533,2457],{},[39,34535,42],{"separator":41},[1423,34537,1425],{},[39,34539,1442],{"stretchy":101},[47,34541,34542],{"encoding":49},"X \\in \\{0,1\\}",[15,34544,34546,34564],{"className":34545,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,34547,34549,34552,34555,34558,34561],{"className":34548},[58],[15,34550],{"className":34551,"style":6635},[62],[15,34553,37],{"className":34554,"style":69},[67,68],[15,34556],{"className":34557,"style":199},[77],[15,34559,1694],{"className":34560},[203],[15,34562],{"className":34563,"style":199},[77],[15,34565,34567,34570,34573,34576,34579,34582,34585],{"className":34566},[58],[15,34568],{"className":34569,"style":124},[62],[15,34571,1417],{"className":34572},[132],[15,34574,2457],{"className":34575},[67],[15,34577,42],{"className":34578},[73],[15,34580],{"className":34581,"style":78},[77],[15,34583,1425],{"className":34584},[67],[15,34586,1442],{"className":34587},[148]," 为处理指示变量。对每个个体 ",[15,34590,34592,34605],{"className":34591,"translate":19},[18],[15,34593,34595],{"className":34594},[23],[25,34596,34597],{"xmlns":27},[29,34598,34599,34603],{},[32,34600,34601],{},[35,34602,1680],{},[47,34604,1680],{"encoding":49},[15,34606,34608],{"className":34607,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,34609,34611,34614],{"className":34610},[58],[15,34612],{"className":34613,"style":11265},[62],[15,34615,1680],{"className":34616},[67,68],"，定义两个潜在结果 ",[15,34619,34621,34645],{"className":34620,"translate":19},[18],[15,34622,34624],{"className":34623},[23],[25,34625,34626],{"xmlns":27},[29,34627,34628,34642],{},[32,34629,34630,34636,34638,34640],{},[863,34631,34632,34634],{},[35,34633,45],{},[35,34635,1680],{},[39,34637,102],{"stretchy":101},[1423,34639,1425],{},[39,34641,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,34643,34644],{"encoding":49},"Y_i(1)",[15,34646,34648],{"className":34647,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,34649,34651,34654,34694,34697,34700],{"className":34650},[58],[15,34652],{"className":34653,"style":124},[62],[15,34655,34657,34660],{"className":34656},[67],[15,34658,45],{"className":34659,"style":82},[67,68],[15,34661,34663],{"className":34662},[918],[15,34664,34666,34686],{"className":34665},[922,923],[15,34667,34669,34683],{"className":34668},[927],[15,34670,34672],{"className":34671,"style":1731},[931],[15,34673,34674,34677],{"style":1497},[15,34675],{"className":34676,"style":940},[939],[15,34678,34680],{"className":34679},[944,945,946,947],[15,34681,1680],{"className":34682},[67,68,947],[15,34684,955],{"className":34685},[954],[15,34687,34689],{"className":34688},[927],[15,34690,34692],{"className":34691,"style":962},[931],[15,34693],{},[15,34695,102],{"className":34696},[132],[15,34698,1425],{"className":34699},[67],[15,34701,111],{"className":34702},[148],"（接受处理时的结果）与 ",[15,34705,34707,34731],{"className":34706,"translate":19},[18],[15,34708,34710],{"className":34709},[23],[25,34711,34712],{"xmlns":27},[29,34713,34714,34728],{},[32,34715,34716,34722,34724,34726],{},[863,34717,34718,34720],{},[35,34719,45],{},[35,34721,1680],{},[39,34723,102],{"stretchy":101},[1423,34725,2457],{},[39,34727,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,34729,34730],{"encoding":49},"Y_i(0)",[15,34732,34734],{"className":34733,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,34735,34737,34740,34780,34783,34786],{"className":34736},[58],[15,34738],{"className":34739,"style":124},[62],[15,34741,34743,34746],{"className":34742},[67],[15,34744,45],{"className":34745,"style":82},[67,68],[15,34747,34749],{"className":34748},[918],[15,34750,34752,34772],{"className":34751},[922,923],[15,34753,34755,34769],{"className":34754},[927],[15,34756,34758],{"className":34757,"style":1731},[931],[15,34759,34760,34763],{"style":1497},[15,34761],{"className":34762,"style":940},[939],[15,34764,34766],{"className":34765},[944,945,946,947],[15,34767,1680],{"className":34768},[67,68,947],[15,34770,955],{"className":34771},[954],[15,34773,34775],{"className":34774},[927],[15,34776,34778],{"className":34777,"style":962},[931],[15,34779],{},[15,34781,102],{"className":34782},[132],[15,34784,2457],{"className":34785},[67],[15,34787,111],{"className":34788},[148],"（未接受处理时的结果）。个体因果效应定义为 ",[15,34791,34793,34831],{"className":34792,"translate":19},[18],[15,34794,34796],{"className":34795},[23],[25,34797,34798],{"xmlns":27},[29,34799,34800,34828],{},[32,34801,34802,34808,34810,34812,34814,34816,34822,34824,34826],{},[863,34803,34804,34806],{},[35,34805,45],{},[35,34807,1680],{},[39,34809,102],{"stretchy":101},[1423,34811,1425],{},[39,34813,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,34815,14210],{},[863,34817,34818,34820],{},[35,34819,45],{},[35,34821,1680],{},[39,34823,102],{"stretchy":101},[1423,34825,2457],{},[39,34827,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,34829,34830],{"encoding":49},"Y_i(1) - Y_i(0)",[15,34832,34834,34898],{"className":34833,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,34835,34837,34840,34880,34883,34886,34889,34892,34895],{"className":34836},[58],[15,34838],{"className":34839,"style":124},[62],[15,34841,34843,34846],{"className":34842},[67],[15,34844,45],{"className":34845,"style":82},[67,68],[15,34847,34849],{"className":34848},[918],[15,34850,34852,34872],{"className":34851},[922,923],[15,34853,34855,34869],{"className":34854},[927],[15,34856,34858],{"className":34857,"style":1731},[931],[15,34859,34860,34863],{"style":1497},[15,34861],{"className":34862,"style":940},[939],[15,34864,34866],{"className":34865},[944,945,946,947],[15,34867,1680],{"className":34868},[67,68,947],[15,34870,955],{"className":34871},[954],[15,34873,34875],{"className":34874},[927],[15,34876,34878],{"className":34877,"style":962},[931],[15,34879],{},[15,34881,102],{"className":34882},[132],[15,34884,1425],{"className":34885},[67],[15,34887,111],{"className":34888},[148],[15,34890],{"className":34891,"style":82},[77],[15,34893,14210],{"className":34894},[1646],[15,34896],{"className":34897,"style":82},[77],[15,34899,34901,34904,34944,34947,34950],{"className":34900},[58],[15,34902],{"className":34903,"style":124},[62],[15,34905,34907,34910],{"className":34906},[67],[15,34908,45],{"className":34909,"style":82},[67,68],[15,34911,34913],{"className":34912},[918],[15,34914,34916,34936],{"className":34915},[922,923],[15,34917,34919,34933],{"className":34918},[927],[15,34920,34922],{"className":34921,"style":1731},[931],[15,34923,34924,34927],{"style":1497},[15,34925],{"className":34926,"style":940},[939],[15,34928,34930],{"className":34929},[944,945,946,947],[15,34931,1680],{"className":34932},[67,68,947],[15,34934,955],{"className":34935},[954],[15,34937,34939],{"className":34938},[927],[15,34940,34942],{"className":34941,"style":962},[931],[15,34943],{},[15,34945,102],{"className":34946},[132],[15,34948,2457],{"className":34949},[67],[15,34951,111],{"className":34952},[148],"，平均处理效应定义为 ",[15,34955,34957,35004],{"className":34956,"translate":19},[18],[15,34958,34960],{"className":34959},[23],[25,34961,34962],{"xmlns":27},[29,34963,34964,35001],{},[32,34965,34966,34975,34977,34979,34981,34983,34985,34987,34989,34991,34993,34995,34997,34999],{},[32,34967,34968,34971,34973],{},[35,34969,34970],{"mathvariant":878},"A",[35,34972,26331],{"mathvariant":878},[35,34974,1346],{"mathvariant":878},[39,34976,602],{},[35,34978,1346],{"mathvariant":13790},[39,34980,13793],{"stretchy":101},[35,34982,45],{},[39,34984,102],{"stretchy":101},[1423,34986,1425],{},[39,34988,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,34990,14210],{},[35,34992,45],{},[39,34994,102],{"stretchy":101},[1423,34996,2457],{},[39,34998,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,35000,13802],{"stretchy":101},[47,35002,35003],{"encoding":49},"\\mathrm{ATE} = \\mathbb{E}[Y(1) - Y(0)]",[15,35005,35007,35029,35062],{"className":35006,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,35008,35010,35013,35020,35023,35026],{"className":35009},[58],[15,35011],{"className":35012,"style":299},[62],[15,35014,35016],{"className":35015},[67],[15,35017,35019],{"className":35018},[67,10365],"ATE",[15,35021],{"className":35022,"style":199},[77],[15,35024,602],{"className":35025},[203],[15,35027],{"className":35028,"style":199},[77],[15,35030,35032,35035,35038,35041,35044,35047,35050,35053,35056,35059],{"className":35031},[58],[15,35033],{"className":35034,"style":124},[62],[15,35036,1346],{"className":35037},[67,26404],[15,35039,13793],{"className":35040},[132],[15,35042,45],{"className":35043,"style":82},[67,68],[15,35045,102],{"className":35046},[132],[15,35048,1425],{"className":35049},[67],[15,35051,111],{"className":35052},[148],[15,35054],{"className":35055,"style":82},[77],[15,35057,14210],{"className":35058},[1646],[15,35060],{"className":35061,"style":82},[77],[15,35063,35065,35068,35071,35074,35077],{"className":35064},[58],[15,35066],{"className":35067,"style":124},[62],[15,35069,45],{"className":35070,"style":82},[67,68],[15,35072,102],{"className":35073},[132],[15,35075,2457],{"className":35076},[67],[15,35078,35080],{"className":35079},[148],")]",[11,35082,35083,35084,35087,35088,35215],{},"这一框架的核心困难称作",[305,35085,35086],{},"因果推断的根本问题（Fundamental Problem of Causal Inference）","：对任何个体，我们只能观测到 ",[15,35089,35091,35119],{"className":35090,"translate":19},[18],[15,35092,35094],{"className":35093},[23],[25,35095,35096],{"xmlns":27},[29,35097,35098,35116],{},[32,35099,35100,35106,35108,35114],{},[863,35101,35102,35104],{},[35,35103,45],{},[35,35105,1680],{},[39,35107,102],{"stretchy":101},[863,35109,35110,35112],{},[35,35111,37],{},[35,35113,1680],{},[39,35115,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,35117,35118],{"encoding":49},"Y_i(X_i)",[15,35120,35122],{"className":35121,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,35123,35125,35128,35168,35171,35212],{"className":35124},[58],[15,35126],{"className":35127,"style":124},[62],[15,35129,35131,35134],{"className":35130},[67],[15,35132,45],{"className":35133,"style":82},[67,68],[15,35135,35137],{"className":35136},[918],[15,35138,35140,35160],{"className":35139},[922,923],[15,35141,35143,35157],{"className":35142},[927],[15,35144,35146],{"className":35145,"style":1731},[931],[15,35147,35148,35151],{"style":1497},[15,35149],{"className":35150,"style":940},[939],[15,35152,35154],{"className":35153},[944,945,946,947],[15,35155,1680],{"className":35156},[67,68,947],[15,35158,955],{"className":35159},[954],[15,35161,35163],{"className":35162},[927],[15,35164,35166],{"className":35165,"style":962},[931],[15,35167],{},[15,35169,102],{"className":35170},[132],[15,35172,35174,35177],{"className":35173},[67],[15,35175,37],{"className":35176,"style":69},[67,68],[15,35178,35180],{"className":35179},[918],[15,35181,35183,35204],{"className":35182},[922,923],[15,35184,35186,35201],{"className":35185},[927],[15,35187,35189],{"className":35188,"style":1731},[931],[15,35190,35192,35195],{"style":35191},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0785em;margin-right:0.05em;",[15,35193],{"className":35194,"style":940},[939],[15,35196,35198],{"className":35197},[944,945,946,947],[15,35199,1680],{"className":35200},[67,68,947],[15,35202,955],{"className":35203},[954],[15,35205,35207],{"className":35206},[927],[15,35208,35210],{"className":35209,"style":962},[931],[15,35211],{},[15,35213,111],{"className":35214},[148],"，另一个潜在结果永远缺失。因此个体因果效应原则上不可观测，只能转而估计总体层面的量。",[11,35217,35218,35219,35304,35305,35475,35476,35504,35505,35598,35599,35602],{},"这与本文 3.3 节的三步算法形成直接对照：潜在结果框架中的 ",[15,35220,35222,35246],{"className":35221,"translate":19},[18],[15,35223,35225],{"className":35224},[23],[25,35226,35227],{"xmlns":27},[29,35228,35229,35243],{},[32,35230,35231,35237,35239,35241],{},[863,35232,35233,35235],{},[35,35234,45],{},[35,35236,1680],{},[39,35238,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,35240,539],{},[39,35242,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,35244,35245],{"encoding":49},"Y_i(x)",[15,35247,35249],{"className":35248,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,35250,35252,35255,35295,35298,35301],{"className":35251},[58],[15,35253],{"className":35254,"style":124},[62],[15,35256,35258,35261],{"className":35257},[67],[15,35259,45],{"className":35260,"style":82},[67,68],[15,35262,35264],{"className":35263},[918],[15,35265,35267,35287],{"className":35266},[922,923],[15,35268,35270,35284],{"className":35269},[927],[15,35271,35273],{"className":35272,"style":1731},[931],[15,35274,35275,35278],{"style":1497},[15,35276],{"className":35277,"style":940},[939],[15,35279,35281],{"className":35280},[944,945,946,947],[15,35282,1680],{"className":35283},[67,68,947],[15,35285,955],{"className":35286},[954],[15,35288,35290],{"className":35289},[927],[15,35291,35293],{"className":35292,"style":962},[931],[15,35294],{},[15,35296,102],{"className":35297},[132],[15,35299,539],{"className":35300},[67,68],[15,35302,111],{"className":35303},[148]," 正是 SCM 中的 ",[15,35306,35308,35340],{"className":35307,"translate":19},[18],[15,35309,35311],{"className":35310},[23],[25,35312,35313],{"xmlns":27},[29,35314,35315,35337],{},[32,35316,35317,35327,35329,35335],{},[863,35318,35319,35321],{},[35,35320,45],{},[863,35322,35323,35325],{},[35,35324,9452],{},[35,35326,539],{},[39,35328,102],{"stretchy":101},[863,35330,35331,35333],{},[35,35332,13753],{},[35,35334,1680],{},[39,35336,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,35338,35339],{"encoding":49},"Y_{M_x}(u_i)",[15,35341,35343],{"className":35342,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,35344,35346,35349,35429,35432,35472],{"className":35345},[58],[15,35347],{"className":35348,"style":18329},[62],[15,35350,35352,35355],{"className":35351},[67],[15,35353,45],{"className":35354,"style":82},[67,68],[15,35356,35358],{"className":35357},[918],[15,35359,35361,35421],{"className":35360},[922,923],[15,35362,35364,35418],{"className":35363},[927],[15,35365,35367],{"className":35366,"style":7346},[931],[15,35368,35369,35372],{"style":1497},[15,35370],{"className":35371,"style":940},[939],[15,35373,35375],{"className":35374},[944,945,946,947],[15,35376,35378],{"className":35377},[67,947],[15,35379,35381,35384],{"className":35380},[67,947],[15,35382,9452],{"className":35383,"style":2566},[67,68,947],[15,35385,35387],{"className":35386},[918],[15,35388,35390,35410],{"className":35389},[922,923],[15,35391,35393,35407],{"className":35392},[927],[15,35394,35396],{"className":35395,"style":18377},[931],[15,35397,35398,35401],{"style":18380},[15,35399],{"className":35400,"style":18384},[939],[15,35402,35404],{"className":35403},[944,18388,15064,947],[15,35405,539],{"className":35406},[67,68,947],[15,35408,955],{"className":35409},[954],[15,35411,35413],{"className":35412},[927],[15,35414,35416],{"className":35415,"style":18401},[931],[15,35417],{},[15,35419,955],{"className":35420},[954],[15,35422,35424],{"className":35423},[927],[15,35425,35427],{"className":35426,"style":18413},[931],[15,35428],{},[15,35430,102],{"className":35431},[132],[15,35433,35435,35438],{"className":35434},[67],[15,35436,13753],{"className":35437},[67,68],[15,35439,35441],{"className":35440},[918],[15,35442,35444,35464],{"className":35443},[922,923],[15,35445,35447,35461],{"className":35446},[927],[15,35448,35450],{"className":35449,"style":1731},[931],[15,35451,35452,35455],{"style":7277},[15,35453],{"className":35454,"style":940},[939],[15,35456,35458],{"className":35457},[944,945,946,947],[15,35459,1680],{"className":35460},[67,68,947],[15,35462,955],{"className":35463},[954],[15,35465,35467],{"className":35466},[927],[15,35468,35470],{"className":35469,"style":962},[931],[15,35471],{},[15,35473,111],{"className":35474},[148],"，个体 ",[15,35477,35479,35492],{"className":35478,"translate":19},[18],[15,35480,35482],{"className":35481},[23],[25,35483,35484],{"xmlns":27},[29,35485,35486,35490],{},[32,35487,35488],{},[35,35489,1680],{},[47,35491,1680],{"encoding":49},[15,35493,35495],{"className":35494,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,35496,35498,35501],{"className":35497},[58],[15,35499],{"className":35500,"style":11265},[62],[15,35502,1680],{"className":35503},[67,68]," 即外生变量的一次实现 ",[15,35506,35508,35530],{"className":35507,"translate":19},[18],[15,35509,35511],{"className":35510},[23],[25,35512,35513],{"xmlns":27},[29,35514,35515,35527],{},[32,35516,35517,35519,35521],{},[35,35518,2454],{},[39,35520,602],{},[863,35522,35523,35525],{},[35,35524,13753],{},[35,35526,1680],{},[47,35528,35529],{"encoding":49},"U = u_i",[15,35531,35533,35551],{"className":35532,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,35534,35536,35539,35542,35545,35548],{"className":35535},[58],[15,35537],{"className":35538,"style":299},[62],[15,35540,2454],{"className":35541,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,35543],{"className":35544,"style":199},[77],[15,35546,602],{"className":35547},[203],[15,35549],{"className":35550,"style":199},[77],[15,35552,35554,35558],{"className":35553},[58],[15,35555],{"className":35556,"style":35557},[62],"height:0.5806em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[15,35559,35561,35564],{"className":35560},[67],[15,35562,13753],{"className":35563},[67,68],[15,35565,35567],{"className":35566},[918],[15,35568,35570,35590],{"className":35569},[922,923],[15,35571,35573,35587],{"className":35572},[927],[15,35574,35576],{"className":35575,"style":1731},[931],[15,35577,35578,35581],{"style":7277},[15,35579],{"className":35580,"style":940},[939],[15,35582,35584],{"className":35583},[944,945,946,947],[15,35585,1680],{"className":35586},[67,68,947],[15,35588,955],{"className":35589},[954],[15,35591,35593],{"className":35592},[927],[15,35594,35596],{"className":35595,"style":962},[931],[15,35597],{},"。事实上，在只涉及可操纵变量、且不引用跨世界量的范围内，两套形式化被证明是",[305,35600,35601],{},"等价的","；SCM 的表达力略宽一些，例如它可以容纳不可操纵的变量（如年龄、性别），而这在严格的潜在结果表述中会造成困难。二者共享同一组识别性条件，只是表述方式不同：",[507,35604,35605,35612],{},[510,35606,35607,35608,35611],{},"SCM 用 ",[305,35609,35610],{},"d-分离与后门准则","回答「应当控制哪些变量」，把这一判断变成图上的机械判定；",[510,35613,35614,35615,4327,35618,35777,35778,35903],{},"潜在结果框架用",[305,35616,35617],{},"可忽略性假设（ignorability）",[15,35619,35621,35671],{"className":35620,"translate":19},[18],[15,35622,35624],{"className":35623},[23],[25,35625,35626],{"xmlns":27},[29,35627,35628,35668],{},[32,35629,35630,35632,35634,35636,35638,35640,35642,35644,35646,35648,35650,35652,35654,35656,35658,35660,35662,35664,35666],{},[39,35631,102],{"fence":101,"stretchy":41,"minsize":14205,"maxsize":14205},[35,35633,45],{},[39,35635,102],{"stretchy":101},[1423,35637,1425],{},[39,35639,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,35641,42],{"separator":41},[35,35643,45],{},[39,35645,102],{"stretchy":101},[1423,35647,2457],{},[39,35649,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,35651,111],{"fence":101,"stretchy":41,"minsize":14205,"maxsize":14205},[39,35653,236],{},[238,35655,240],{},[238,35657,240],{},[238,35659,240],{},[39,35661,236],{},[35,35663,37],{},[39,35665,170],{},[35,35667,3785],{},[47,35669,35670],{"encoding":49},"\\big(Y(1), Y(0)\\big) \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp X \\mid W",[15,35672,35674,35738,35750,35768],{"className":35673,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,35675,35677,35681,35687,35690,35693,35696,35699,35702,35705,35708,35711,35714,35717,35723,35726,35729,35732,35735],{"className":35676},[58],[15,35678],{"className":35679,"style":35680},[62],"height:1.2em;vertical-align:-0.35em;",[15,35682,35684],{"className":35683},[67],[15,35685,102],{"className":35686},[15063,15064],[15,35688,45],{"className":35689,"style":82},[67,68],[15,35691,102],{"className":35692},[132],[15,35694,1425],{"className":35695},[67],[15,35697,111],{"className":35698},[148],[15,35700,42],{"className":35701},[73],[15,35703],{"className":35704,"style":78},[77],[15,35706,45],{"className":35707,"style":82},[67,68],[15,35709,102],{"className":35710},[132],[15,35712,2457],{"className":35713},[67],[15,35715,111],{"className":35716},[148],[15,35718,35720],{"className":35719},[67],[15,35721,111],{"className":35722},[15063,15064],[15,35724],{"className":35725,"style":199},[77],[15,35727,236],{"className":35728},[203],[15,35730],{"className":35731,"style":274},[77],[15,35733],{"className":35734,"style":274},[77],[15,35736],{"className":35737,"style":274},[77],[15,35739,35741,35744,35747],{"className":35740},[58],[15,35742],{"className":35743,"style":261},[62],[15,35745,236],{"className":35746},[203],[15,35748],{"className":35749,"style":199},[77],[15,35751,35753,35756,35759,35762,35765],{"className":35752},[58],[15,35754],{"className":35755,"style":124},[62],[15,35757,37],{"className":35758,"style":69},[67,68],[15,35760],{"className":35761,"style":199},[77],[15,35763,170],{"className":35764},[203],[15,35766],{"className":35767,"style":199},[77],[15,35769,35771,35774],{"className":35770},[58],[15,35772],{"className":35773,"style":299},[62],[15,35775,3785],{"className":35776,"style":128},[67,68]," 表达同一件事，并由此导出倾向得分 ",[15,35779,35781,35819],{"className":35780,"translate":19},[18],[15,35782,35784],{"className":35783},[23],[25,35785,35786],{"xmlns":27},[29,35787,35788,35816],{},[32,35789,35790,35792,35794,35796,35798,35800,35802,35804,35806,35808,35810,35812,35814],{},[35,35791,13743],{},[39,35793,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,35795,3785],{},[39,35797,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,35799,602],{},[35,35801,98],{},[39,35803,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,35805,37],{},[39,35807,602],{},[1423,35809,1425],{},[39,35811,170],{},[35,35813,3785],{},[39,35815,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,35817,35818],{"encoding":49},"e(W) = P(X = 1 \\mid W)",[15,35820,35822,35849,35873,35891],{"className":35821,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,35823,35825,35828,35831,35834,35837,35840,35843,35846],{"className":35824},[58],[15,35826],{"className":35827,"style":124},[62],[15,35829,13743],{"className":35830},[67,68],[15,35832,102],{"className":35833},[132],[15,35835,3785],{"className":35836,"style":128},[67,68],[15,35838,111],{"className":35839},[148],[15,35841],{"className":35842,"style":199},[77],[15,35844,602],{"className":35845},[203],[15,35847],{"className":35848,"style":199},[77],[15,35850,35852,35855,35858,35861,35864,35867,35870],{"className":35851},[58],[15,35853],{"className":35854,"style":124},[62],[15,35856,98],{"className":35857,"style":128},[67,68],[15,35859,102],{"className":35860},[132],[15,35862,37],{"className":35863,"style":69},[67,68],[15,35865],{"className":35866,"style":199},[77],[15,35868,602],{"className":35869},[203],[15,35871],{"className":35872,"style":199},[77],[15,35874,35876,35879,35882,35885,35888],{"className":35875},[58],[15,35877],{"className":35878,"style":124},[62],[15,35880,1425],{"className":35881},[67],[15,35883],{"className":35884,"style":199},[77],[15,35886,170],{"className":35887},[203],[15,35889],{"className":35890,"style":199},[77],[15,35892,35894,35897,35900],{"className":35893},[58],[15,35895],{"className":35896,"style":124},[62],[15,35898,3785],{"className":35899,"style":128},[67,68],[15,35901,111],{"className":35902},[148],"，以及逆概率加权（IPW）、双重稳健估计等成熟的估计工具。",[11,35905,35906,35907,36049,36050,36078,36079,36107,36108,36111,36112,10661,36115,36247],{},"值得注意的是，",[15,35908,35910,35956],{"className":35909,"translate":19},[18],[15,35911,35913],{"className":35912},[23],[25,35914,35915],{"xmlns":27},[29,35916,35917,35953],{},[32,35918,35919,35921,35923,35925,35927,35929,35931,35933,35935,35937,35939,35941,35943,35945,35947,35949,35951],{},[35,35920,45],{},[39,35922,102],{"stretchy":101},[1423,35924,1425],{},[39,35926,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,35928,42],{"separator":41},[35,35930,45],{},[39,35932,102],{"stretchy":101},[1423,35934,2457],{},[39,35936,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,35938,236],{},[238,35940,240],{},[238,35942,240],{},[238,35944,240],{},[39,35946,236],{},[35,35948,37],{},[39,35950,170],{},[35,35952,3785],{},[47,35954,35955],{"encoding":49},"Y(1), Y(0) \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp X \\mid W",[15,35957,35959,36010,36022,36040],{"className":35958,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,35960,35962,35965,35968,35971,35974,35977,35980,35983,35986,35989,35992,35995,35998,36001,36004,36007],{"className":35961},[58],[15,35963],{"className":35964,"style":124},[62],[15,35966,45],{"className":35967,"style":82},[67,68],[15,35969,102],{"className":35970},[132],[15,35972,1425],{"className":35973},[67],[15,35975,111],{"className":35976},[148],[15,35978,42],{"className":35979},[73],[15,35981],{"className":35982,"style":78},[77],[15,35984,45],{"className":35985,"style":82},[67,68],[15,35987,102],{"className":35988},[132],[15,35990,2457],{"className":35991},[67],[15,35993,111],{"className":35994},[148],[15,35996],{"className":35997,"style":199},[77],[15,35999,236],{"className":36000},[203],[15,36002],{"className":36003,"style":274},[77],[15,36005],{"className":36006,"style":274},[77],[15,36008],{"className":36009,"style":274},[77],[15,36011,36013,36016,36019],{"className":36012},[58],[15,36014],{"className":36015,"style":261},[62],[15,36017,236],{"className":36018},[203],[15,36020],{"className":36021,"style":199},[77],[15,36023,36025,36028,36031,36034,36037],{"className":36024},[58],[15,36026],{"className":36027,"style":124},[62],[15,36029,37],{"className":36030,"style":69},[67,68],[15,36032],{"className":36033,"style":199},[77],[15,36035,170],{"className":36036},[203],[15,36038],{"className":36039,"style":199},[77],[15,36041,36043,36046],{"className":36042},[58],[15,36044],{"className":36045,"style":299},[62],[15,36047,3785],{"className":36048,"style":128},[67,68]," 与「",[15,36051,36053,36066],{"className":36052,"translate":19},[18],[15,36054,36056],{"className":36055},[23],[25,36057,36058],{"xmlns":27},[29,36059,36060,36064],{},[32,36061,36062],{},[35,36063,3785],{},[47,36065,3785],{"encoding":49},[15,36067,36069],{"className":36068,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,36070,36072,36075],{"className":36071},[58],[15,36073],{"className":36074,"style":299},[62],[15,36076,3785],{"className":36077,"style":128},[67,68]," 满足后门准则」所刻画的正是同一组条件：随机化（或条件随机化）在图上做的事情，恰恰就是删除指向 ",[15,36080,36082,36095],{"className":36081,"translate":19},[18],[15,36083,36085],{"className":36084},[23],[25,36086,36087],{"xmlns":27},[29,36088,36089,36093],{},[32,36090,36091],{},[35,36092,37],{},[47,36094,37],{"encoding":49},[15,36096,36098],{"className":36097,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,36099,36101,36104],{"className":36100},[58],[15,36102],{"className":36103,"style":299},[62],[15,36105,37],{"className":36106,"style":69},[67,68]," 的全部入边。此外，潜在结果框架还引入了 SCM 表述中不显式出现的两条假设——",[305,36109,36110],{},"SUTVA","（个体的结果不受他人处理状态的影响，且处理版本唯一）与",[305,36113,36114],{},"重叠性",[15,36116,36118,36154],{"className":36117,"translate":19},[18],[15,36119,36121],{"className":36120},[23],[25,36122,36123],{"xmlns":27},[29,36124,36125,36151],{},[32,36126,36127,36129,36131,36133,36135,36137,36139,36141,36143,36145,36147,36149],{},[1423,36128,2457],{},[39,36130,21743],{},[35,36132,98],{},[39,36134,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,36136,37],{},[39,36138,602],{},[1423,36140,1425],{},[39,36142,170],{},[35,36144,3785],{},[39,36146,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,36148,21743],{},[1423,36150,1425],{},[47,36152,36153],{"encoding":49},"0 \u003C P(X=1\\mid W) \u003C 1",[15,36155,36157,36175,36199,36217,36238],{"className":36156,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,36158,36160,36163,36166,36169,36172],{"className":36159},[58],[15,36161],{"className":36162,"style":21758},[62],[15,36164,2457],{"className":36165},[67],[15,36167],{"className":36168,"style":199},[77],[15,36170,21743],{"className":36171},[203],[15,36173],{"className":36174,"style":199},[77],[15,36176,36178,36181,36184,36187,36190,36193,36196],{"className":36177},[58],[15,36179],{"className":36180,"style":124},[62],[15,36182,98],{"className":36183,"style":128},[67,68],[15,36185,102],{"className":36186},[132],[15,36188,37],{"className":36189,"style":69},[67,68],[15,36191],{"className":36192,"style":199},[77],[15,36194,602],{"className":36195},[203],[15,36197],{"className":36198,"style":199},[77],[15,36200,36202,36205,36208,36211,36214],{"className":36201},[58],[15,36203],{"className":36204,"style":124},[62],[15,36206,1425],{"className":36207},[67],[15,36209],{"className":36210,"style":199},[77],[15,36212,170],{"className":36213},[203],[15,36215],{"className":36216,"style":199},[77],[15,36218,36220,36223,36226,36229,36232,36235],{"className":36219},[58],[15,36221],{"className":36222,"style":124},[62],[15,36224,3785],{"className":36225,"style":128},[67,68],[15,36227,111],{"className":36228},[148],[15,36230],{"className":36231,"style":199},[77],[15,36233,21743],{"className":36234},[203],[15,36236],{"className":36237,"style":199},[77],[15,36239,36241,36244],{"className":36240},[58],[15,36242],{"className":36243,"style":3145},[62],[15,36245,1425],{"className":36246},[67],"）。前者在存在干扰或溢出效应（如疫苗接种、社交网络中的实验）时会被违反，而这类情形在图上需要特殊的结构才能建模。这是两个框架互补而非竞争的一个典型例子。",[1309,36249,36251],{"id":36250},"_42-传统结构方程模型同一名称下的另一条传统","4.2 传统结构方程模型：同一名称下的另一条传统",[11,36253,36254],{},"「结构方程模型」这一术语在统计学、心理测量学与社会科学中已有数十年的历史，其含义与本文所述并不相同。为避免混淆，此处有必要作一辨析。",[11,36256,36257,36258,36261,36262,36265,36266,36269,36270,36332],{},"经典意义上的 SEM 由两部分组成：",[305,36259,36260],{},"测量模型","（潜变量与观测指标之间的因子结构，即验证性因子分析）与",[305,36263,36264],{},"结构模型","（潜变量之间的路径系数）。它以观测变量的",[305,36267,36268],{},"协方差矩阵","为拟合对象，通过极大似然等方法估计参数，并以 ",[15,36271,36273,36293],{"className":36272,"translate":19},[18],[15,36274,36276],{"className":36275},[23],[25,36277,36278],{"xmlns":27},[29,36279,36280,36290],{},[32,36281,36282],{},[872,36283,36284,36287],{},[35,36285,36286],{},"χ",[1423,36288,36289],{},"2",[47,36291,36292],{"encoding":49},"\\chi^2",[15,36294,36296],{"className":36295,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,36297,36299,36303],{"className":36298},[58],[15,36300],{"className":36301,"style":36302},[62],"height:1.0085em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[15,36304,36306,36309],{"className":36305},[67],[15,36307,36286],{"className":36308},[67,68],[15,36310,36312],{"className":36311},[918],[15,36313,36315],{"className":36314},[922],[15,36316,36318],{"className":36317},[927],[15,36319,36321],{"className":36320,"style":16393},[931],[15,36322,36323,36326],{"style":1002},[15,36324],{"className":36325,"style":940},[939],[15,36327,36329],{"className":36328},[944,945,946,947],[15,36330,36289],{"className":36331},[67,947],"、CFI、RMSEA 等指标评价模型与数据的整体拟合优度，典型应用是心理量表与社会科学的潜变量建模。",[11,36334,36335],{},"与本文的因果结构模型相比，二者的差别可以归纳为三点：",[7909,36337,36338,36348,36358],{},[510,36339,36340,36343,36344,36347],{},[305,36341,36342],{},"边的语义不同","。经典 SEM 的路径图本质上是对协方差结构分解的图解，方向由理论约定，模型检验关心的是「这个协方差模式能否被这个路径图解释」；而本文的 SCM 把每条边当作「直接原因」这一",[305,36345,36346],{},"不可从数据验证的结构性假设","（见 1.1 节），并强调它必须来自数据之外。",[510,36349,36350,36353,36354,36357],{},[305,36351,36352],{},"是否具备 do-算子","。经典 SEM 没有干预的语义，其路径系数",[305,36355,36356],{},"不能被直接解释为干预效应","，只有在额外假设（通常等同于后门准则）下，这些参数才恰好与因果效应一致。这也正是同一份协方差矩阵可以同时被多个方向不同的路径图拟合的原因。",[510,36359,36360,36363,36364,36392,36393,36421],{},[305,36361,36362],{},"反事实的可识别性来自假设而非数据","。经典 SEM 通常假设线性、可加且噪声服从高斯分布，而正如 3.3 节所指出的，在这一特殊设定下 ",[15,36365,36367,36380],{"className":36366,"translate":19},[18],[15,36368,36370],{"className":36369},[23],[25,36371,36372],{"xmlns":27},[29,36373,36374,36378],{},[32,36375,36376],{},[35,36377,2454],{},[47,36379,2454],{"encoding":49},[15,36381,36383],{"className":36382,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,36384,36386,36389],{"className":36385},[58],[15,36387],{"className":36388,"style":299},[62],[15,36390,2454],{"className":36391,"style":2566},[67,68]," 可由 ",[15,36394,36396,36409],{"className":36395,"translate":19},[18],[15,36397,36399],{"className":36398},[23],[25,36400,36401],{"xmlns":27},[29,36402,36403,36407],{},[32,36404,36405],{},[35,36406,1341],{},[47,36408,1341],{"encoding":49},[15,36410,36412],{"className":36411,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,36413,36415,36418],{"className":36414},[58],[15,36416],{"className":36417,"style":299},[62],[15,36419,1341],{"className":36420,"style":82},[67,68]," 唯一反解，反事实量因此「自动可识别」。这既是它能够讨论个体效应的原因，也是它最脆弱的地方：结论的强度完全由函数形式的假设承担。",[11,36423,36424],{},"一句话概括：经典 SEM 关心的是「协方差结构能否被一个路径图解释」，而结构因果模型关心的是「若外部改变某个变量，其余变量将如何变化」。",[1309,36426,36428],{"id":36427},"_43-随机对照试验的因果语义","4.3 随机对照试验的因果语义",[11,36430,36431],{},"本文的形式化工具同时给出了随机对照试验（RCT）为何享有「黄金标准」地位的一个精确解释。",[11,36433,36434,36435,36463,36464,36492,36493,36496,36497,36551,36552,36694,36695,36698,36699,36702,36703,36731],{},"在因果图中，随机分配意味着 ",[15,36436,36438,36451],{"className":36437,"translate":19},[18],[15,36439,36441],{"className":36440},[23],[25,36442,36443],{"xmlns":27},[29,36444,36445,36449],{},[32,36446,36447],{},[35,36448,37],{},[47,36450,37],{"encoding":49},[15,36452,36454],{"className":36453,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,36455,36457,36460],{"className":36456},[58],[15,36458],{"className":36459,"style":299},[62],[15,36461,37],{"className":36462,"style":69},[67,68]," 的取值由模型之外的机制（随机数生成器）决定，因此 ",[15,36465,36467,36480],{"className":36466,"translate":19},[18],[15,36468,36470],{"className":36469},[23],[25,36471,36472],{"xmlns":27},[29,36473,36474,36478],{},[32,36475,36476],{},[35,36477,37],{},[47,36479,37],{"encoding":49},[15,36481,36483],{"className":36482,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,36484,36486,36489],{"className":36485},[58],[15,36487],{"className":36488,"style":299},[62],[15,36490,37],{"className":36491,"style":69},[67,68]," 在图中",[305,36494,36495],{},"没有任何父节点","，也就不存在任何后门路径。由后门准则（取 ",[15,36498,36500,36519],{"className":36499,"translate":19},[18],[15,36501,36503],{"className":36502},[23],[25,36504,36505],{"xmlns":27},[29,36506,36507,36516],{},[32,36508,36509,36511,36513],{},[35,36510,3769],{},[39,36512,602],{},[35,36514,36515],{"mathvariant":878},"∅",[47,36517,36518],{"encoding":49},"S = \\varnothing",[15,36520,36522,36540],{"className":36521,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,36523,36525,36528,36531,36534,36537],{"className":36524},[58],[15,36526],{"className":36527,"style":299},[62],[15,36529,3769],{"className":36530,"style":1394},[67,68],[15,36532],{"className":36533,"style":199},[77],[15,36535,602],{"className":36536},[203],[15,36538],{"className":36539,"style":199},[77],[15,36541,36543,36547],{"className":36542},[58],[15,36544],{"className":36545,"style":36546},[62],"height:0.6633em;vertical-align:-0.0817em;",[15,36548,36515],{"className":36549},[67,36550],"amsrm","）立即得到\n",[15,36553,36555,36601],{"className":36554,"translate":19},[18],[15,36556,36558],{"className":36557},[23],[25,36559,36560],{"xmlns":27},[29,36561,36562,36598],{},[32,36563,36564,36566,36568,36570,36572,36574,36576,36578,36580,36582,36584,36586,36588,36590,36592,36594,36596],{},[35,36565,98],{},[39,36567,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,36569,534],{},[39,36571,170],{},[35,36573,696],{},[35,36575,699],{},[39,36577,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,36579,539],{},[39,36581,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,36583,111],{"stretchy":101},[39,36585,602],{},[35,36587,98],{},[39,36589,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,36591,534],{},[39,36593,170],{},[35,36595,539],{},[39,36597,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,36599,36600],{"encoding":49},"P(y \\mid do(x)) = P(y \\mid x)",[15,36602,36604,36628,36658,36682],{"className":36603,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,36605,36607,36610,36613,36616,36619,36622,36625],{"className":36606},[58],[15,36608],{"className":36609,"style":124},[62],[15,36611,98],{"className":36612,"style":128},[67,68],[15,36614,102],{"className":36615},[132],[15,36617,534],{"className":36618,"style":563},[67,68],[15,36620],{"className":36621,"style":199},[77],[15,36623,170],{"className":36624},[203],[15,36626],{"className":36627,"style":199},[77],[15,36629,36631,36634,36637,36640,36643,36646,36649,36652,36655],{"className":36630},[58],[15,36632],{"className":36633,"style":124},[62],[15,36635,696],{"className":36636},[67,68],[15,36638,699],{"className":36639},[67,68],[15,36641,102],{"className":36642},[132],[15,36644,539],{"className":36645},[67,68],[15,36647,759],{"className":36648},[148],[15,36650],{"className":36651,"style":199},[77],[15,36653,602],{"className":36654},[203],[15,36656],{"className":36657,"style":199},[77],[15,36659,36661,36664,36667,36670,36673,36676,36679],{"className":36660},[58],[15,36662],{"className":36663,"style":124},[62],[15,36665,98],{"className":36666,"style":128},[67,68],[15,36668,102],{"className":36669},[132],[15,36671,534],{"className":36672,"style":563},[67,68],[15,36674],{"className":36675,"style":199},[77],[15,36677,170],{"className":36678},[203],[15,36680],{"className":36681,"style":199},[77],[15,36683,36685,36688,36691],{"className":36684},[58],[15,36686],{"className":36687,"style":124},[62],[15,36689,539],{"className":36690},[67,68],[15,36692,111],{"className":36693},[148],"\n即",[305,36696,36697],{},"干预分布与条件分布重合，观测数据可以直接回答第二层的问题","。用一句话说：",[305,36700,36701],{},"随机化就是人造的 do-算子","——它在物理上执行了定义 3.2 中「删去 ",[15,36704,36706,36719],{"className":36705,"translate":19},[18],[15,36707,36709],{"className":36708},[23],[25,36710,36711],{"xmlns":27},[29,36712,36713,36717],{},[32,36714,36715],{},[35,36716,37],{},[47,36718,37],{"encoding":49},[15,36720,36722],{"className":36721,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,36723,36725,36728],{"className":36724},[58],[15,36726],{"className":36727,"style":299},[62],[15,36729,37],{"className":36730,"style":69},[67,68]," 全部入边」这一手术。",[11,36733,36734],{},"这一视角同时划出了 RCT 的边界：",[7909,36736,36737,36743,36750,36786],{},[510,36738,36739,36740,36742],{},"它回答的是第二层问题，",[305,36741,24552],{},"回答个体反事实（见 3.3 节的可识别性边界）；",[510,36744,36745,36746,36749],{},"它识别的是",[305,36747,36748],{},"实际实施的处理版本","，若存在不依从（non-compliance），随机化在图上即被违反，需要借助工具变量等额外结构才能恢复效应估计；",[510,36751,36752,36753,36756,36757,36785],{},"随机化只保证",[305,36754,36755],{},"组间可比","，若存在干扰或溢出效应（SUTVA 违反），",[15,36758,36760,36773],{"className":36759,"translate":19},[18],[15,36761,36763],{"className":36762},[23],[25,36764,36765],{"xmlns":27},[29,36766,36767,36771],{},[32,36768,36769],{},[35,36770,37],{},[47,36772,37],{"encoding":49},[15,36774,36776],{"className":36775,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,36777,36779,36782],{"className":36778},[58],[15,36780],{"className":36781,"style":299},[62],[15,36783,37],{"className":36784,"style":69},[67,68]," 与结果之间仍可能经由个体之间的相互影响产生关联；",[510,36787,36788,36789,36792],{},"它保证的是",[305,36790,36791],{},"内部有效性","，外部有效性并不会自动成立——这引出下一小节。",[1309,36794,36796],{"id":36795},"_44-可迁移性与外部有效性","4.4 可迁移性与外部有效性",[11,36798,36799],{},"一个在实践中反复出现的问题是：在某一人群（或地区、时间）中估计出的因果效应，能否搬到另一个人群中去？纯统计框架对这一问题通常只能给出「谨慎泛化」这样的告诫，而因果图可以提供更精确的回答。",[11,36801,36802,36803,2247],{},"Pearl 与 Bareinboim 提出的",[305,36804,36805,36806,36900,36901,36936],{},"可迁移性（transportability）",[305,36807,36808,36809,36839,36840,36899],{},"理论把这类问题形式化如下：设源总体为 ",[15,36810,36812,36827],{"className":36811,"translate":19},[18],[15,36813,36815],{"className":36814},[23],[25,36816,36817],{"xmlns":27},[29,36818,36819,36824],{},[32,36820,36821],{},[35,36822,36823],{},"π",[47,36825,36826],{"encoding":49},"\\pi",[15,36828,36830],{"className":36829,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,36831,36833,36836],{"className":36832},[58],[15,36834],{"className":36835,"style":635},[62],[15,36837,36823],{"className":36838,"style":563},[67,68],"、目标总体为 ",[15,36841,36843,36861],{"className":36842,"translate":19},[18],[15,36844,36846],{"className":36845},[23],[25,36847,36848],{"xmlns":27},[29,36849,36850,36858],{},[32,36851,36852],{},[872,36853,36854,36856],{},[35,36855,36823],{},[39,36857,26364],{},[47,36859,36860],{"encoding":49},"\\pi^*",[15,36862,36864],{"className":36863,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,36865,36867,36870],{"className":36866},[58],[15,36868],{"className":36869,"style":26609},[62],[15,36871,36873,36876],{"className":36872},[67],[15,36874,36823],{"className":36875,"style":563},[67,68],[15,36877,36879],{"className":36878},[918],[15,36880,36882],{"className":36881},[922],[15,36883,36885],{"className":36884},[927],[15,36886,36888],{"className":36887,"style":26609},[931],[15,36889,36890,36893],{"style":1002},[15,36891],{"className":36892,"style":940},[939],[15,36894,36896],{"className":36895},[944,945,946,947],[15,36897,26364],{"className":36898},[1646,947],"，在","选择图（selection diagram）",[305,36902,36903,36904,36935],{},"中用方框记号 ",[15,36905,36907,36922],{"className":36906,"translate":19},[18],[15,36908,36910],{"className":36909},[23],[25,36911,36912],{"xmlns":27},[29,36913,36914,36919],{},[32,36915,36916],{},[35,36917,36918],{"mathvariant":878},"□",[47,36920,36921],{"encoding":49},"\\square",[15,36923,36925],{"className":36924,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,36926,36928,36932],{"className":36927},[58],[15,36929],{"className":36930,"style":36931},[62],"height:0.675em;",[15,36933,36918],{"className":36934},[67,36550]," 标出两个总体之间机制存在差异的节点。有了这一标注，就可以像 do-演算那样通过图上的判定，确定哪些机制可以在两个总体之间共享（因而可以搬运）、哪些必须在目标总体中重新估计，并给出相应的","传输公式（transport formula）",[11,36938,36939,36940,36943],{},"这一工具的意义在于：",[305,36941,36942],{},"外部有效性被从一句笼统的方法论警告，转化为一个在图上可判定的问题。"," 例如，某药物在临床试验人群中的效应能否外推到儿童，取决于两个人群之间的差异所触及的机制是否落在从用药到疗效的因果路径上——若差异只影响与结果无关的变量，效应可以直接搬运；若差异恰好作用于效应的关键中介或调节变量，则必须重新估计。这可以视为 SCM 相对于纯统计框架的一个独有优势。",[1309,36945,36947],{"id":36946},"_45-假设边界与开放问题","4.5 假设边界与开放问题",[11,36949,36950],{},"本文的体系并非无条件成立。把全部预设集中列出，既是诚实，也是使用时的核对清单：",[7909,36952,36953,37049,37167,37253,37324,37330],{},[510,36954,36955,36958,36959,36962,36963,36966,36967,37048],{},[305,36956,36957],{},"无环性","。DAG 假设排除了反馈回路与均衡，但现实中的经济系统（供给与需求互相决定）、生态系统与控制系统本质上是",[305,36960,36961],{},"有环","的。一种自然的放松方向是",[305,36964,36965],{},"有环结构方程模型","：允许 ",[15,36968,36970,37000],{"className":36969,"translate":19},[18],[15,36971,36973],{"className":36972},[23],[25,36974,36975],{"xmlns":27},[29,36976,36977,36997],{},[32,36978,36979,36981,36983,36985,36987,36989,36991,36993,36995],{},[35,36980,1341],{},[39,36982,8850],{},[39,36984,602],{},[35,36986,5717],{},[39,36988,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,36990,1341],{},[39,36992,42],{"separator":41},[35,36994,2454],{},[39,36996,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,36998,36999],{"encoding":49},"V := f(V, U)",[15,37001,37003,37021],{"className":37002,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,37004,37006,37009,37012,37015,37018],{"className":37005},[58],[15,37007],{"className":37008,"style":299},[62],[15,37010,1341],{"className":37011,"style":82},[67,68],[15,37013],{"className":37014,"style":199},[77],[15,37016,8886],{"className":37017},[203],[15,37019],{"className":37020,"style":199},[77],[15,37022,37024,37027,37030,37033,37036,37039,37042,37045],{"className":37023},[58],[15,37025],{"className":37026,"style":124},[62],[15,37028,5717],{"className":37029,"style":5765},[67,68],[15,37031,102],{"className":37032},[132],[15,37034,1341],{"className":37035,"style":82},[67,68],[15,37037,42],{"className":37038},[73],[15,37040],{"className":37041,"style":78},[77],[15,37043,2454],{"className":37044,"style":2566},[67,68],[15,37046,111],{"className":37047},[148],"，并以该系统的不动点作为均衡解来定义干预与反事实，此时「因果」的语义变为「均衡状态的移动」。时间序列情形下的动态贝叶斯网络（沿时间维展开后重新成为 DAG）是另一条常见路线。",[510,37050,37051,37054,37055,37083,37084,37112,37113,37116,37117,37166],{},[305,37052,37053],{},"Granger 因果不等于干预因果","。计量经济学中的 Granger 因果检验，其定义是「利用 ",[15,37056,37058,37071],{"className":37057,"translate":19},[18],[15,37059,37061],{"className":37060},[23],[25,37062,37063],{"xmlns":27},[29,37064,37065,37069],{},[32,37066,37067],{},[35,37068,37],{},[47,37070,37],{"encoding":49},[15,37072,37074],{"className":37073,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,37075,37077,37080],{"className":37076},[58],[15,37078],{"className":37079,"style":299},[62],[15,37081,37],{"className":37082,"style":69},[67,68]," 的历史能否改善对 ",[15,37085,37087,37100],{"className":37086,"translate":19},[18],[15,37088,37090],{"className":37089},[23],[25,37091,37092],{"xmlns":27},[29,37093,37094,37098],{},[32,37095,37096],{},[35,37097,45],{},[47,37099,45],{"encoding":49},[15,37101,37103],{"className":37102,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,37104,37106,37109],{"className":37105},[58],[15,37107],{"className":37108,"style":299},[62],[15,37110,45],{"className":37111,"style":82},[67,68]," 的预测」，这是一个纯粹的",[305,37114,37115],{},"可预测性","概念，与「在 ",[15,37118,37120,37142],{"className":37119,"translate":19},[18],[15,37121,37123],{"className":37122},[23],[25,37124,37125],{"xmlns":27},[29,37126,37127,37139],{},[32,37128,37129,37131,37133,37135,37137],{},[35,37130,696],{},[35,37132,699],{},[39,37134,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,37136,37],{},[39,37138,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,37140,37141],{"encoding":49},"do(X)",[15,37143,37145],{"className":37144,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,37146,37148,37151,37154,37157,37160,37163],{"className":37147},[58],[15,37149],{"className":37150,"style":124},[62],[15,37152,696],{"className":37153},[67,68],[15,37155,699],{"className":37156},[67,68],[15,37158,102],{"className":37159},[132],[15,37161,37],{"className":37162,"style":69},[67,68],[15,37164,111],{"className":37165},[148]," 下保持不变」的机制性因果概念分属两个不同的层级。在存在共同驱动因素（尤其是同时驱动二者但滞后不同的因素）时，Granger 因果会给出与干预无关的结论。把二者等同，是应用中最常见的概念混淆之一。",[510,37168,37169,37172,37173,37252],{},[305,37170,37171],{},"忠实性不可检验","。1.3 节的「当且仅当」版本依赖忠实性假设，即分布中不存在的独立性都不是参数偶然相消的产物。然而参数相消（例如路径系数恰好满足 ",[15,37174,37176,37202],{"className":37175,"translate":19},[18],[15,37177,37179],{"className":37178},[23],[25,37180,37181],{"xmlns":27},[29,37182,37183,37199],{},[32,37184,37185,37187,37190,37192,37195,37197],{},[35,37186,10201],{},[35,37188,37189],{},"b",[39,37191,2890],{},[35,37193,37194],{},"c",[39,37196,602],{},[1423,37198,2457],{},[47,37200,37201],{"encoding":49},"ab + c = 0",[15,37203,37205,37225,37243],{"className":37204,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,37206,37208,37212,37216,37219,37222],{"className":37207},[58],[15,37209],{"className":37210,"style":37211},[62],"height:0.7778em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[15,37213,37215],{"className":37214},[67,68],"ab",[15,37217],{"className":37218,"style":82},[77],[15,37220,2890],{"className":37221},[1646],[15,37223],{"className":37224,"style":82},[77],[15,37226,37228,37231,37234,37237,37240],{"className":37227},[58],[15,37229],{"className":37230,"style":635},[62],[15,37232,37194],{"className":37233},[67,68],[15,37235],{"className":37236,"style":199},[77],[15,37238,602],{"className":37239},[203],[15,37241],{"className":37242,"style":199},[77],[15,37244,37246,37249],{"className":37245},[58],[15,37247],{"className":37248,"style":3145},[62],[15,37250,2457],{"className":37251},[67],"）在数学上完全合法，且在某些自然的参数化下（如线性高斯模型的某些先验）几乎必然发生。忠实性无法从数据中检验，只能被接受或拒绝。",[510,37254,37255,37258,37259,37262,37263,431,37291,37319,37320,37323],{},[305,37256,37257],{},"马尔可夫型假设与不可识别性","。本文默认不存在未观测的混杂（2.1 节）。3.5 节的前门准则可以在",[305,37260,37261],{},"特定的中介结构","下绕过这一限制，但它远非一般性的解决方案。对一般的半马尔可夫型 SCM，存在根本不可识别的结构（例如 ",[15,37264,37266,37279],{"className":37265,"translate":19},[18],[15,37267,37269],{"className":37268},[23],[25,37270,37271],{"xmlns":27},[29,37272,37273,37277],{},[32,37274,37275],{},[35,37276,37],{},[47,37278,37],{"encoding":49},[15,37280,37282],{"className":37281,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,37283,37285,37288],{"className":37284},[58],[15,37286],{"className":37287,"style":299},[62],[15,37289,37],{"className":37290,"style":69},[67,68],[15,37292,37294,37307],{"className":37293,"translate":19},[18],[15,37295,37297],{"className":37296},[23],[25,37298,37299],{"xmlns":27},[29,37300,37301,37305],{},[32,37302,37303],{},[35,37304,45],{},[47,37306,45],{"encoding":49},[15,37308,37310],{"className":37309,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,37311,37313,37316],{"className":37312},[58],[15,37314],{"className":37315,"style":299},[62],[15,37317,45],{"className":37318,"style":82},[67,68]," 之间存在未观测混杂、且不存在满足前门条件的中介），此时唯一的出路是用",[305,37321,37322],{},"部分识别","方法给出效应的上下界，而非一个点估计。",[510,37325,37326,37329],{},[305,37327,37328],{},"选择与缺失","。d-分离的判据默认全部相关变量均已被观测，而样本选择本身就是在某些节点上做条件化——例 1.4 的伯克森悖论正是选择偏差的图论根源。同理，缺失数据的机制（MCAR \u002F MAR \u002F MNAR）在因果图中对应何种结构、会对可识别性造成何种影响，是一条自然而且实用的延伸方向。",[510,37331,37332,37335,37336,37339],{},[305,37333,37334],{},"因果发现的可扩展性","。1.4 节所述的算法在假设成立、样本充分时具有理论保证，但在有限样本下，条件独立检验的误差会逐层累积，输出的图往往并不稳定；同时这些算法对忠实性、无隐变量、函数类等假设相当敏感，其输出应当被当作",[305,37337,37338],{},"待检验的假设候选","，而不是结论。",[11,37341,37342,37343],{},"以上限制并未削弱这套理论的价值，反而界定了它的使用条件：",[305,37344,37345],{},"因果推断的可靠程度，等于你愿意且能够承担的假设的强度。",[1305,37347,37348],{"id":37348},"其他结语",[11,37350,37351],{},"回顾全文，因果图、结构因果模型、结构方程三者并非彼此独立的工具，而是同一理论体系在不同抽象层级上的展开：",[507,37353,37354,37366,37432],{},[510,37355,37356,7746,37358,37361,37362,37365],{},[305,37357,1307],{},[305,37359,37360],{},"定性层面","编码「谁影响谁」。它给出 d-分离这一可在图上机械判定的独立性判据，从而把「该控制哪些变量」从一个凭经验判断的问题，转化为一个组合问题；而它最主要的信息量，恰恰集中在那些",[305,37363,37364],{},"没有被画出来的边","上。",[510,37367,37368,7746,37370,37373,37374,37402,37403,37431],{},[305,37369,9420],{},[305,37371,37372],{},"生成层面","把图提升为一个可以生成数据的机制。它通过外生变量 ",[15,37375,37377,37390],{"className":37376,"translate":19},[18],[15,37378,37380],{"className":37379},[23],[25,37381,37382],{"xmlns":27},[29,37383,37384,37388],{},[32,37385,37386],{},[35,37387,2454],{},[47,37389,2454],{"encoding":49},[15,37391,37393],{"className":37392,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,37394,37396,37399],{"className":37395},[58],[15,37397],{"className":37398,"style":299},[62],[15,37400,2454],{"className":37401,"style":2566},[67,68]," 与结构方程 ",[15,37404,37406,37419],{"className":37405,"translate":19},[18],[15,37407,37409],{"className":37408},[23],[25,37410,37411],{"xmlns":27},[29,37412,37413,37417],{},[32,37414,37415],{},[35,37416,9467],{},[47,37418,9467],{"encoding":49},[15,37420,37422],{"className":37421,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,37423,37425,37428],{"className":37424},[58],[15,37426],{"className":37427,"style":299},[62],[15,37429,9467],{"className":37430,"style":128},[67,68]," 明确了「观测分布」与「干预分布」的区别，使第二层的问题第一次拥有了明确的数学对象。",[510,37433,37434,7746,37437,37440,37441,37471,37472,37576,37577,37662],{},[305,37435,37436],{},"结构方程",[305,37438,37439],{},"操作层面","给出这套机制的可改写形式。非对称的 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do-算子可以理解为一次对机制的手术式局部替换（",[15,37473,37475,37496],{"className":37474,"translate":19},[18],[15,37476,37478],{"className":37477},[23],[25,37479,37480],{"xmlns":27},[29,37481,37482,37494],{},[32,37483,37484],{},[863,37485,37486,37488],{},[35,37487,1334],{},[18606,37489,37490,37492],{"accent":41},[35,37491,37],{},[39,37493,18612],{"stretchy":41},[47,37495,18615],{"encoding":49},[15,37497,37499],{"className":37498,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,37500,37502,37505],{"className":37501},[58],[15,37503],{"className":37504,"style":18625},[62],[15,37506,37508,37511],{"className":37507},[67],[15,37509,1334],{"className":37510},[67,68],[15,37512,37514],{"className":37513},[918],[15,37515,37517,37568],{"className":37516},[922,923],[15,37518,37520,37565],{"className":37519},[927],[15,37521,37523],{"className":37522,"style":18644},[931],[15,37524,37525,37528],{"style":18647},[15,37526],{"className":37527,"style":18651},[939],[15,37529,37531],{"className":37530},[944,945,946,947],[15,37532,37534],{"className":37533},[67,947],[15,37535,37537],{"className":37536},[67,18661,947],[15,37538,37540],{"className":37539},[922],[15,37541,37543],{"className":37542},[927],[15,37544,37546,37557],{"className":37545,"style":18671},[931],[15,37547,37548,37551],{"style":18674},[15,37549],{"className":37550,"style":18651},[939],[15,37552,37554],{"className":37553},[67,947],[15,37555,37],{"className":37556,"style":69},[67,68,947],[15,37558,37559,37562],{"style":18686},[15,37560],{"className":37561,"style":18651},[939],[15,37563],{"className":37564,"style":18694},[18693,947],[15,37566,955],{"className":37567},[954],[15,37569,37571],{"className":37570},[927],[15,37572,37574],{"className":37573,"style":18704},[931],[15,37575],{},"），并经潜在结果 ",[15,37578,37580,37604],{"className":37579,"translate":19},[18],[15,37581,37583],{"className":37582},[23],[25,37584,37585],{"xmlns":27},[29,37586,37587,37601],{},[32,37588,37589,37595,37597,37599],{},[863,37590,37591,37593],{},[35,37592,45],{},[35,37594,539],{},[39,37596,102],{"stretchy":101},[35,37598,13753],{},[39,37600,111],{"stretchy":101},[47,37602,37603],{"encoding":49},"Y_x(u)",[15,37605,37607],{"className":37606,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,37608,37610,37613,37653,37656,37659],{"className":37609},[58],[15,37611],{"className":37612,"style":124},[62],[15,37614,37616,37619],{"className":37615},[67],[15,37617,45],{"className":37618,"style":82},[67,68],[15,37620,37622],{"className":37621},[918],[15,37623,37625,37645],{"className":37624},[922,923],[15,37626,37628,37642],{"className":37627},[927],[15,37629,37631],{"className":37630,"style":932},[931],[15,37632,37633,37636],{"style":1497},[15,37634],{"className":37635,"style":940},[939],[15,37637,37639],{"className":37638},[944,945,946,947],[15,37640,539],{"className":37641},[67,68,947],[15,37643,955],{"className":37644},[954],[15,37646,37648],{"className":37647},[927],[15,37649,37651],{"className":37650,"style":962},[931],[15,37652],{},[15,37654,102],{"className":37655},[132],[15,37657,13753],{"className":37658},[67,68],[15,37660,111],{"className":37661},[148]," 通向第三层的反事实。",[11,37664,37665],{},"第四部分则表明，这一体系与潜在结果框架、传统结构方程模型之间并无高下之分，而是对同一批问题的不同表述：本文的框架以图换取「该控制什么」的可判定性，潜在结果框架以概率表述换取成熟的估计工具，而传统 SEM 关心的始终是协方差结构能否被一个路径图解释；至于随机化实验，其全部因果语义就是一次在物理上实施的 do-算子。",[11,37667,37668,37669,37672],{},"这一体系最深刻的洞见在于：",[305,37670,37671],{},"因果知识本质上是关于「世界如何生成数据」的知识，而非「数据本身呈现出何种模式」的知识","。正因如此，仅凭再大规模、再高维度的观测数据，也无法在没有结构性假设（即因果图）的前提下唯一确定因果效应——这既是因果推断这一领域存在的根本原因，也是它与纯粹的统计学习、机器学习范式在认识论上的分界线所在。",[11,37674,37675],{},"同时也应记住 4.5 节列出的代价：这套理论的可识别性结论，无一例外地建立在无环、忠实、无未观测混杂等假设之上，而其中若干假设本身并不能由数据检验。因此使用因果图时最值得追问的，往往不是「这张图算出了什么」，而是「这张图凭什么长成这样」，以及「若换一张同样合理的图，结论是否仍然成立」。",{"title":4117,"searchDepth":37677,"depth":37677,"links":37678},2,[37679,37686,37691,37698,37705],{"id":1307,"depth":37677,"text":1307,"children":37680},[37681,37683,37684,37685],{"id":1311,"depth":37682,"text":1312},3,{"id":4182,"depth":37682,"text":4183},{"id":6334,"depth":37682,"text":6335},{"id":7903,"depth":37682,"text":7904},{"id":9420,"depth":37677,"text":9420,"children":37687},[37688,37689,37690],{"id":9430,"depth":37682,"text":9431},{"id":11930,"depth":37682,"text":11931},{"id":13607,"depth":37682,"text":13608},{"id":16051,"depth":37677,"text":16051,"children":37692},[37693,37694,37695,37696,37697],{"id":16102,"depth":37682,"text":16103},{"id":17145,"depth":37682,"text":17146},{"id":21962,"depth":37682,"text":21963},{"id":25954,"depth":37682,"text":25955},{"id":29663,"depth":37682,"text":29664},{"id":34494,"depth":37677,"text":34494,"children":37699},[37700,37701,37702,37703,37704],{"id":34500,"depth":37682,"text":34501},{"id":36250,"depth":37682,"text":36251},{"id":36427,"depth":37682,"text":36428},{"id":36795,"depth":37682,"text":36796},{"id":36946,"depth":37682,"text":36947},{"id":37348,"depth":37677,"text":37348},"为什么概率论不足以回答因果问题？设 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的因果推断阶梯为线索，依次展开因果图、结构因果模型与结构方程这三层层层递进的形式化工具，进而讨论因果发现、中介分析、do-演算与前门准则，并对照潜在结果框架与传统结构方程模型，梳理这一体系成立所依赖的假设与适用边界。",[37718],"machine-learning","2026-09-20T23:05:13+08:00","ake4o4yRZlycgfEsxxOFs9VqjSNrQEe7RxE7RRuLx7U",{"id":37722,"title":37723,"body":37724,"description":37728,"draft":37707,"enableCodeHighlight":37708,"enableCodeHightlight":37707,"enableComment":37708,"enableD2":37708,"enableKatex":37708,"extension":37709,"image":4117,"important":37707,"location":37710,"meta":39423,"navigation":37708,"ogImage":37712,"path":39424,"seo":39425,"stem":39426,"summary":39427,"tags":39428,"time":39430,"__hash__":39431},"blog\u002Fblog\u002F2026\u002F0006-markdown-ke-xue-xie-zuo-tong-dian-wen-ti.md","Markdown 并不适合科学写作",{"type":8,"value":37725,"toc":39411},[37726,37729,37732,37738,37741,37744,37749,37755,37758,37761,37764,37770,37773,37779,37782,37785,37788,37791,37794,37797,37800,37803,37806,37809,37815,37818,37821,37824,37827,37865,37868,37871,37877,37880,37883,37886,37889,37892,37895,37898,37901,37904,37907,37913,37916,38035,38357,38368,38371,38374,38377,38380,38383,38386,38389,38395,38506,38513,38520,38523,38526,38529,38536,38543,38546,38549,38552,38570,38573,38688,38695,38698,38701,38811,38835,38841,38847,38856,38859,38865,38868,38875,38989,39096,39100,39103,39106,39114,39231,39234,39238,39241,39247,39250,39260,39263,39270,39273,39276,39279,39282,39285,39288,39295,39402,39407],[11,37727,37728],{},"写博客了很长一段时间了，但是个人觉得，Markdown 并不适合科学写作。读研究生期间，搞搞科研，有时候会阶段性地总结一下自己的研究 idea，或者梳理自己的知识，就需要系统性地写作总结。这部分我经常写在自己的博客里，就比如之前所发表的博客内容。",[11,37730,37731],{},"我这个博客网站是基于 Markdown + Unified.js + Nuxt Content 工具链实现的，每篇博客源格式都是 markdown 写成，再编译成 HTML 发表在网页上。",[11,37733,37734,37735,37737],{},"但是，在写作过程中，我经常会有种非常别扭且痛苦的感觉。前几天写了一篇文章，",[10201,37736,6],{"href":37713},"，这是一篇偏学术和展开论述的文章。",[11,37739,37740],{},"但是把它们写成 Markdown 博客，却花了我几乎两周的时间去校对和验证。最后精力不支，只能交给 LLM 后仓促发表。类似的，再撰写这类科学写作的文章，Markdown 让我深深感受到了这种文档的不足和局限。",[11,37742,37743],{},"写作对工具不挑剔，但工具的选择会悄悄影响你写作的组织方式。用记事本写，你倾向于纯线性；用 Notion 写，你可能会不自觉地建数据库、打标签；用 Markdown 写，你会习惯用标题层级来切分内容。",[11,37745,37746],{},[305,37747,37748],{},"一般来说，写作分为几种类型：日常写作、科学写作、技术写作。",[11,37750,37751,37752],{},"三者虽然都叫「写作」，但是背后所使用的行文组织、写作思路等完全不同。",[305,37753,37754],{},"使用的认知模型完全不同。",[11,37756,37757],{},"它们对「段落」「证据」「结构」「读者」的预设都不一样。Markdown 的流行，很大程度上是因为它恰好适配了技术写作和一部分日常写作，但科学写作的核心需求它确实覆盖得很差。",[11,37759,37760],{},"Markdown 与其说「不适合写科学内容」，不如说它的抽象层级主要是「轻量文档标记」，而科学写作本质上更接近「结构化知识建模」。",[1305,37762,37763],{"id":37763},"日常写作",[11,37765,37766,37769],{},[305,37767,37768],{},"首先是日常写作。"," 日常写作在互联网上随处可见，比如我们写的沟通、记录、表达。比如邮件、笔记、社交媒体、日记等等，它的核心是「交流感受、讲述经验、维持关系」。读者一般是自己或熟人，共享大量语境。",[11,37771,37772],{},"日常写作是「线性的」。比如：",[37774,37775,37776],"blockquote",{},[11,37777,37778],{},"今天去了一趟实验室，发现服务器又挂了。折腾了半天，最后发现是 CUDA 环境的问题。",[11,37780,37781],{},"这样的好处，就是随意、口语化、结构松散，容错率高，歧义靠语境补全。",[11,37783,37784],{},"它的基本结构就是：想法 → 句子 → 段落 → 文章。",[11,37786,37787],{},"Markdown 对这种东西非常舒服。标题、粗体、列表、引用，已经足够了。而且这个链条是单向、可增量的。写一段是一段，不必先有全局骨架。这些已经覆盖了日常写作 90% 的标记需求。日常写作本来也不需要那么精确的视觉层级。",[11,37789,37790],{},"更重要的是，Markdown 的纯文本性让它在任何设备、任何编辑器里都能打开和修改。手机备忘录、VS Code、Obsidian、Notion、Typora，甚至 GitHub 的 issue 框，都能写。这种低门槛 + 跨平台，正好匹配日常写作「随时随地、随手就写」的场景。",[11,37792,37793],{},"它允许模糊、跳跃、情绪化，结构常常是情绪曲线或联想链条。博客、散文、社交媒体都属于这一类。Markdown 在这里够用，因为它只需要轻量地标记标题、列表、强调、链接。",[11,37795,37796],{},"作者不需要预先设计结构，想到哪写到哪。读者也不指望从中提取精确知识，能跟上情绪和大致信息就行。逻辑跳了、指代不清、重复啰嗦，都不致命，语境会补全。改一句话不影响全局，不需要回头调整编号、引文、交叉引用。",[11,37798,37799],{},"所以，对于日常写作，工具要求实际上并不高，任意文本编辑器、笔记软件如 MS Word，Evernote，Notion 都可以轻松应对，甚至手机自带的笔记本 App，Windows 文本编辑器都能应对。",[11,37801,37802],{},"日常写作还有一个特点：结构可以后补。你先随手写一堆碎片，之后再整理成「标题 + 段落 + 列表」，完全来得及。因为日常写作不依赖精确的交叉引用和编号，结构调整不会引发连锁修改。",[11,37804,37805],{},"所以，日常写作是三种写作里对工具最宽容、对结构最随意、对修改最不敏感的一类。Markdown 在这里如鱼得水，不是因为它多强大，而是因为日常写作本来就不需要多强大。",[1305,37807,37808],{"id":37808},"技术写作",[11,37810,37811,37814],{},[305,37812,37813],{},"其次是技术写作。"," 技术写作的核心是「让读者完成操作或理解系统」。回答「怎么做」。比如 API 文档、用户手册，核心是让读者准确、高效地完成操作，追求可用性和任务完成率。",[11,37816,37817],{},"它追求可检索、可复用、可版本控制、可多端发布。文档、API 说明、教程、README 是典型。大多数开源项目的文档、技术博客等等，都属于这种类型。",[11,37819,37820],{},"技术写作是「操作性的」。技术文档的写作内容，更像是目标、环境、安装、配置、运行、错误处理、结果一连串起来。",[11,37822,37823],{},"文章的每个部分都是任务导向，模块化。比如，读者可跳读。且每个部分都可以在自己的内部领域展开——这就是典型的树形文章组织。",[11,37825,37826],{},"因此 Markdown 的标题树非常自然，以一个开源项目的 Github Readme 文档的组织结构为例：",[37828,37829,37833],"pre",{"className":37830,"code":37831,"language":37832,"meta":4117,"style":4117},"language-markdown shiki shiki-themes github-light github-light github-dark","# Installation\n## Requirements\n## Install\n# Usage\n# Troubleshooting\n","markdown",[37834,37835,37836,37843,37848,37853,37859],"code",{"__ignoreMap":4117},[15,37837,37840],{"class":37838,"line":37839},"line",1,[15,37841,37842],{},"# Installation\n",[15,37844,37845],{"class":37838,"line":37677},[15,37846,37847],{},"## Requirements\n",[15,37849,37850],{"class":37838,"line":37682},[15,37851,37852],{},"## Install\n",[15,37854,37856],{"class":37838,"line":37855},4,[15,37857,37858],{},"# Usage\n",[15,37860,37862],{"class":37838,"line":37861},5,[15,37863,37864],{},"# Troubleshooting\n",[11,37866,37867],{},"例如，如果读者已经 install 了这个软件，就可以直接跳过 installation 和 requirements 这两章节，直接跳转到 Usage 章节。",[11,37869,37870],{},"Markdown 的核心模型是树状文档——标题下挂段落和列表，段落和列表之下再无更深的语义结构。就像这样：",[11,37872,37873],{},[4111,37874],{"alt":37875,"src":37876},"Markdown 层次写作模型","https:\u002F\u002Fimage-assets.dreams.plus\u002F202609222216870.png",[11,37878,37879],{},"Markdown 几乎是为这类写作量身定做的：纯文本、易 diff、易转 HTML、易嵌入代码块。技术写作的「正确性」往往由代码运行结果或操作是否成功来验证，不需要复杂的引注和排版。Markdown 的设计目标不是「表达知识结构」，而是「让纯文本容易读、容易写、容易转 HTML」。它的语法元素——标题、列表、强调、链接、代码块、引用——本质上都是视觉标记，不是语义对象。",[11,37881,37882],{},"所以 Markdown 甚至非常适合技术写作。例如 GitHub README、API 文档、开发文档，本质上就是让一个人沿着信息路径完成一个任务。",[1305,37884,37885],{"id":37885},"科学写作",[11,37887,37888],{},"但科学写作不是信息排列，而是在构造一个可以被检验的论证系统。核心是提出假设、展示证据、论证结论。",[11,37890,37891],{},"这一点在技术写作和科学写作里就完全不同了。技术写作的结构往往是预先设计的，科学写作的结构更是由论证逻辑和引用关系约束的。一旦结构变了，引文、图表编号、交叉引用都要跟着变。",[11,37893,37894],{},"以写一篇论文为例，真正的逻辑并不是「Introduction → Method → Experiment → Conclusion」这样的排版顺序，而更接近：先有一个现象，再追问为什么现有解释不足，进而提出新的问题表述，建立数学模型，推导出模型应当具有的可验证性质，设计方法去利用这个性质，用实验去验证这些性质是否真的存在，检验方法是否真正解决了问题，最后排除其他可能的解释。",[11,37896,37897],{},"这条链条可以进一步抽象为 Claim → Assumption → Model → Derivation → Prediction → Evidence → Conclusion，这已经不是普通意义上的「文档结构」，而更像一张证明图、因果图或知识图。",[11,37899,37900],{},"由此可以看到，科学写作其实存在两套结构。读者看到的是表层结构，也就是论文的 IMRaD 结构（引言 - 方法 - 结果 - 讨论），这一线性过程：Introduction、Related Work、Method、Experiments、Conclusion。",[11,37902,37903],{},"但真正决定论文质量的是深层结构——从 Research Question 出发得到 Claim，Claim 一边连接 Assumption，一边连接 Evidence，Assumption 导向 Model，Evidence 来自 Experiment 并与 Model 互相印证，Model 产生 Prediction，最终汇聚为 Conclusion。",[11,37905,37906],{},"一个好的论文段落内部也遵循类似的链条：Claim → Reason → Evidence → Interpretation → Connection to next claim。这种写作模型如下图所示",[11,37908,37909],{},[4111,37910],{"alt":37911,"src":37912},"科学写作的写作模型","https:\u002F\u002Fimage-assets.dreams.plus\u002F202609222126754.png",[11,37914,37915],{},"可以说，科学论文本质上非常接近一种有向图结构，这就产生了一个有意思的矛盾：Markdown 擅长表达「文档树」，而科学写作真正需要表达的是「论证图」。这条链条在认知科学和论证理论里也有对应。比如 Toulmin 的论证模型：Claim、Ground、Warrant、Backing、Qualifier、Rebuttal。",[11,37917,37918,37919,38034],{},"这也是为什么 ",[15,37920,37922,37937],{"className":37921,"translate":19},[18],[15,37923,37925],{"className":37924},[23],[25,37926,37927],{"xmlns":27},[29,37928,37929,37934],{},[32,37930,37931],{},[238,37932,37933],{},"LaTeX",[47,37935,37936],{"encoding":49},"\\LaTeX",[15,37938,37940],{"className":37939,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,37941,37943,37947],{"className":37942},[58],[15,37944],{"className":37945,"style":37946},[62],"height:0.8988em;vertical-align:-0.2155em;",[15,37948,37950,37955,37959,37980,37984],{"className":37949},[67,6301],[15,37951,37954],{"className":37952},[67,37953],"textrm","L",[15,37956],{"className":37957,"style":37958},[77],"margin-right:-0.36em;",[15,37960,37962],{"className":37961},[922],[15,37963,37965],{"className":37964},[927],[15,37966,37968],{"className":37967,"style":299},[931],[15,37969,37971,37974],{"style":37970},"top:-2.905em;",[15,37972],{"className":37973,"style":940},[939],[15,37975,37977],{"className":37976},[67],[15,37978,34970],{"className":37979},[67,37953,947,944,945,946],[15,37981],{"className":37982,"style":37983},[77],"margin-right:-0.15em;",[15,37985,37987,37990,37993,38027,38031],{"className":37986},[67,6301],[15,37988,26331],{"className":37989},[67,37953],[15,37991],{"className":37992,"style":274},[77],[15,37994,37996,38018],{"className":37995},[922,923],[15,37997,37999,38015],{"className":37998},[927],[15,38000,38003],{"className":38001,"style":38002},[931],"height:0.4678em;",[15,38004,38006,38009],{"style":38005},"top:-2.7845em;",[15,38007],{"className":38008,"style":18651},[939],[15,38010,38012],{"className":38011},[67],[15,38013,1346],{"className":38014},[67,37953],[15,38016,955],{"className":38017},[954],[15,38019,38021],{"className":38020},[927],[15,38022,38025],{"className":38023,"style":38024},[931],"height:0.2155em;",[15,38026],{},[15,38028],{"className":38029,"style":38030},[77],"margin-right:-0.125em;",[15,38032,37],{"className":38033},[67,37953]," 在科学写作中显得格外强大，且在 互联网时代 Markdown 盛行的情况下仍然未被淘汰的原因。",[11,38036,38037,38140,38141,38144,38145,38248,38249,38352,38353,38356],{},[15,38038,38040,38053],{"className":38039,"translate":19},[18],[15,38041,38043],{"className":38042},[23],[25,38044,38045],{"xmlns":27},[29,38046,38047,38051],{},[32,38048,38049],{},[238,38050,37933],{},[47,38052,37936],{"encoding":49},[15,38054,38056],{"className":38055,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,38057,38059,38062],{"className":38058},[58],[15,38060],{"className":38061,"style":37946},[62],[15,38063,38065,38068,38071,38091,38094],{"className":38064},[67,6301],[15,38066,37954],{"className":38067},[67,37953],[15,38069],{"className":38070,"style":37958},[77],[15,38072,38074],{"className":38073},[922],[15,38075,38077],{"className":38076},[927],[15,38078,38080],{"className":38079,"style":299},[931],[15,38081,38082,38085],{"style":37970},[15,38083],{"className":38084,"style":940},[939],[15,38086,38088],{"className":38087},[67],[15,38089,34970],{"className":38090},[67,37953,947,944,945,946],[15,38092],{"className":38093,"style":37983},[77],[15,38095,38097,38100,38103,38134,38137],{"className":38096},[67,6301],[15,38098,26331],{"className":38099},[67,37953],[15,38101],{"className":38102,"style":274},[77],[15,38104,38106,38126],{"className":38105},[922,923],[15,38107,38109,38123],{"className":38108},[927],[15,38110,38112],{"className":38111,"style":38002},[931],[15,38113,38114,38117],{"style":38005},[15,38115],{"className":38116,"style":18651},[939],[15,38118,38120],{"className":38119},[67],[15,38121,1346],{"className":38122},[67,37953],[15,38124,955],{"className":38125},[954],[15,38127,38129],{"className":38128},[927],[15,38130,38132],{"className":38131,"style":38024},[931],[15,38133],{},[15,38135],{"className":38136,"style":38030},[77],[15,38138,37],{"className":38139},[67,37953]," 表面上看起来比 Markdown 古老得多，但它解决的其实不只是排版问题，它隐含的是 ",[305,38142,38143],{},"科学对象是一等公民"," 这样一种思想。",[15,38146,38148,38161],{"className":38147,"translate":19},[18],[15,38149,38151],{"className":38150},[23],[25,38152,38153],{"xmlns":27},[29,38154,38155,38159],{},[32,38156,38157],{},[238,38158,37933],{},[47,38160,37936],{"encoding":49},[15,38162,38164],{"className":38163,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,38165,38167,38170],{"className":38166},[58],[15,38168],{"className":38169,"style":37946},[62],[15,38171,38173,38176,38179,38199,38202],{"className":38172},[67,6301],[15,38174,37954],{"className":38175},[67,37953],[15,38177],{"className":38178,"style":37958},[77],[15,38180,38182],{"className":38181},[922],[15,38183,38185],{"className":38184},[927],[15,38186,38188],{"className":38187,"style":299},[931],[15,38189,38190,38193],{"style":37970},[15,38191],{"className":38192,"style":940},[939],[15,38194,38196],{"className":38195},[67],[15,38197,34970],{"className":38198},[67,37953,947,944,945,946],[15,38200],{"className":38201,"style":37983},[77],[15,38203,38205,38208,38211,38242,38245],{"className":38204},[67,6301],[15,38206,26331],{"className":38207},[67,37953],[15,38209],{"className":38210,"style":274},[77],[15,38212,38214,38234],{"className":38213},[922,923],[15,38215,38217,38231],{"className":38216},[927],[15,38218,38220],{"className":38219,"style":38002},[931],[15,38221,38222,38225],{"style":38005},[15,38223],{"className":38224,"style":18651},[939],[15,38226,38228],{"className":38227},[67],[15,38229,1346],{"className":38230},[67,37953],[15,38232,955],{"className":38233},[954],[15,38235,38237],{"className":38236},[927],[15,38238,38240],{"className":38239,"style":38024},[931],[15,38241],{},[15,38243],{"className":38244,"style":38030},[77],[15,38246,37],{"className":38247},[67,37953]," 内置的 equation、theorem、lemma、proof、definition、figure、table、citation、cross-reference、appendix 等等组件，这些东西在 ",[15,38250,38252,38265],{"className":38251,"translate":19},[18],[15,38253,38255],{"className":38254},[23],[25,38256,38257],{"xmlns":27},[29,38258,38259,38263],{},[32,38260,38261],{},[238,38262,37933],{},[47,38264,37936],{"encoding":49},[15,38266,38268],{"className":38267,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,38269,38271,38274],{"className":38270},[58],[15,38272],{"className":38273,"style":37946},[62],[15,38275,38277,38280,38283,38303,38306],{"className":38276},[67,6301],[15,38278,37954],{"className":38279},[67,37953],[15,38281],{"className":38282,"style":37958},[77],[15,38284,38286],{"className":38285},[922],[15,38287,38289],{"className":38288},[927],[15,38290,38292],{"className":38291,"style":299},[931],[15,38293,38294,38297],{"style":37970},[15,38295],{"className":38296,"style":940},[939],[15,38298,38300],{"className":38299},[67],[15,38301,34970],{"className":38302},[67,37953,947,944,945,946],[15,38304],{"className":38305,"style":37983},[77],[15,38307,38309,38312,38315,38346,38349],{"className":38308},[67,6301],[15,38310,26331],{"className":38311},[67,37953],[15,38313],{"className":38314,"style":274},[77],[15,38316,38318,38338],{"className":38317},[922,923],[15,38319,38321,38335],{"className":38320},[927],[15,38322,38324],{"className":38323,"style":38002},[931],[15,38325,38326,38329],{"style":38005},[15,38327],{"className":38328,"style":18651},[939],[15,38330,38332],{"className":38331},[67],[15,38333,1346],{"className":38334},[67,37953],[15,38336,955],{"className":38337},[954],[15,38339,38341],{"className":38340},[927],[15,38342,38344],{"className":38343,"style":38024},[931],[15,38345],{},[15,38347],{"className":38348,"style":38030},[77],[15,38350,37],{"className":38351},[67,37953]," 里不是普通文本，而是具有实际意义的科学对象（Object）。在科学写作中，讲论证图组织起来的方式，就是 ",[37834,38354,38355],{},"\\ref"," 各个科学对象。",[11,38358,38359,38360,38363,38364,38367],{},"写一个公式并加上 ",[37834,38361,38362],{},"\\label{eq:loss}","，再用 ",[37834,38365,38366],{},"\\ref{eq:loss}"," 去引用它，本质上不是在说「这里有一段数学」，而是在声明这是一个具有编号、引用关系和语义身份的 Equation。此外，在科学写作中，定理环境（theorem）也是很重要的，有时候我会在展开论述的时候，给出一些定义、推论、引理等等。在其他文章部分，会经常 refer 到这些。这样一来，文中就建立起了知识对象之间的引用关系，这已经比 Markdown 里单纯加粗一个 Loss function 高了一个抽象层次。",[11,38369,38370],{},"而仅 Markdown 则完全做不到这些。在进行科学写作的时候，只能手动去标注哪些是「定理」，用到了哪些部分，然后再手动写出引用位置，实在无法做到随心所欲去 refer 每一个对象。这些对象和关系，在 LaTeX 编译时会被自动编号、自动解析、自动维护。你增删一个公式，所有引用它的地方都会自动更新。这就是「图结构」在工具层面的体现。Markdown 没有这些语义对象。你只能手动写「如公式 (3) 所示」，然后手动维护编号。一旦增删，就是灾难。",[11,38372,38373],{},"更麻烦的是，科学写作并不是一日之功，很多时候要经过好几天甚至数月时间才能写成文章，在此期间，校对、增删文章时都会重构整个对象引用关系，如果论述过程简单还尚可，对系统性长文，手动维护各个对象之间的关系，简直是灾难级别的事故。",[11,38375,38376],{},"我个人也尝试去寻找相关工具链，很遗憾，我没有找到任何能适用于科学写作处理的 Markdown 文档工具链。",[11,38378,38379],{},"虽然社区有一些尝试，比如 Pandoc 的 Markdown 扩展、Quarto、MyST、Jupyter Book，它们确实支持公式、引用、交叉引用。但它们的抽象层级仍然是「文档 + 一些科学标记」，而不是「科学知识图」。它们能让你在 Markdown 里写公式和引用，但无法让你像 LaTeX 那样自然地声明和引用定理、引理、证明、假设、证据。",[11,38381,38382],{},"更重要的是，它们没有解决上面提到的核心问题：科学写作的深层结构是图，而不是树。工具如果只提供树形结构，写作者就只能手动在脑子里维护图，然后把它压扁成树。这个「压扁」过程，就是让我觉得别扭和痛苦的根源。",[1305,38384,38385],{"id":38385},"压扁的代价",[11,38387,38388],{},"上面说的「压扁」不是一个比喻，它是一件有具体成本的事。",[11,38390,38391,38392],{},"写作并不是「先在脑子里想好一张完整的图，再把它抄成文字」。真实的过程往往相反：图和文本互相塑造。你在写第三段的时候，才想清楚第一段那个 Claim 到底需要什么假设；你在写实验的时候，才发现原来的模型少了一个条件。",[305,38393,38394],{},"图是在写作过程中长出来的，而 Markdown 要求你在图还没有定形的时候，就把它线性地固定下来。",[11,38396,38397,38398,38501,38502,38505],{},"举一个具体的例子。假设我在写一篇关于因果推断的文章，第三节给出了「后门准则」的定义，第五节有一个命题依赖这个定义，第七节的分析又依赖那个命题。现在我想在第三节中间再插入一个识别性假设。在 ",[15,38399,38401,38414],{"className":38400,"translate":19},[18],[15,38402,38404],{"className":38403},[23],[25,38405,38406],{"xmlns":27},[29,38407,38408,38412],{},[32,38409,38410],{},[238,38411,37933],{},[47,38413,37936],{"encoding":49},[15,38415,38417],{"className":38416,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,38418,38420,38423],{"className":38419},[58],[15,38421],{"className":38422,"style":37946},[62],[15,38424,38426,38429,38432,38452,38455],{"className":38425},[67,6301],[15,38427,37954],{"className":38428},[67,37953],[15,38430],{"className":38431,"style":37958},[77],[15,38433,38435],{"className":38434},[922],[15,38436,38438],{"className":38437},[927],[15,38439,38441],{"className":38440,"style":299},[931],[15,38442,38443,38446],{"style":37970},[15,38444],{"className":38445,"style":940},[939],[15,38447,38449],{"className":38448},[67],[15,38450,34970],{"className":38451},[67,37953,947,944,945,946],[15,38453],{"className":38454,"style":37983},[77],[15,38456,38458,38461,38464,38495,38498],{"className":38457},[67,6301],[15,38459,26331],{"className":38460},[67,37953],[15,38462],{"className":38463,"style":274},[77],[15,38465,38467,38487],{"className":38466},[922,923],[15,38468,38470,38484],{"className":38469},[927],[15,38471,38473],{"className":38472,"style":38002},[931],[15,38474,38475,38478],{"style":38005},[15,38476],{"className":38477,"style":18651},[939],[15,38479,38481],{"className":38480},[67],[15,38482,1346],{"className":38483},[67,37953],[15,38485,955],{"className":38486},[954],[15,38488,38490],{"className":38489},[927],[15,38491,38493],{"className":38492,"style":38024},[931],[15,38494],{},[15,38496],{"className":38497,"style":38030},[77],[15,38499,37],{"className":38500},[67,37953]," 里这是一个局部操作：加一个 ",[37834,38503,38504],{},"\\label","，被影响的地方编译时会提醒我。在 Markdown 里这是一次全局手术：我得记住哪些地方引用了「上面那个定义」，哪些公式的编号要变，哪些「如公式 (3) 所示」要改成 (4)。而 Markdown 不会告诉我它们在哪里。",[11,38507,38508,38509,38512],{},"不过编号错乱其实还不是最贵的部分，因为编辑器至少能搜到。真正贵的是",[305,38510,38511],{},"关系的丢失","。在 Markdown 里，「这一段是为了支持那个 Claim」这个事实不存在于文件里，它只存在于我的脑子里。今天写的时候当然记得，三个月后回来改的时候就不记得了。",[11,38514,38515,38516,38519],{},"这带来一个更隐蔽的后果：",[305,38517,38518],{},"别人无法验证我的论证","。合作者和审稿人拿到的是一段线性文本，他们只能重新读一遍全文，然后在自己脑子里把这张图重建出来，再检查它成不成立。每个人都要重建一遍。引用是显式的，论证是隐式的。",[11,38521,38522],{},"所以那种「别扭」的感觉可以更精确地描述：写作时，我的大脑同时在维护两个表征——一张还在变的论证图，和一条正在往前走的文本流——并且要保证它们在每一步都一致。Markdown 为前者提供的支撑是零。它不是不好用，是它根本没打算管这件事。",[1305,38524,38525],{"id":38525},"读者也在走这张图",[11,38527,38528],{},"线性化的成本不只由写作者承担，读者也在付。",[11,38530,38531,38532,38535],{},"读一篇论文的真实动作从来不是从头读到尾。读到中间的 Claim，我要翻回前面看那个定义到底是什么；看到「实验表明」，我要跳到结果章节确认；想知道这个结论有多强，我要去附录看证明的边界条件。",[305,38533,38534],{},"阅读本身就是在图上做遍历","，而且是带随机跳转的遍历。",[11,38537,38538,38539,38542],{},"IMRaD 与其说是一种逻辑结构，不如说是",[305,38540,38541],{},"一种为印刷媒介做的妥协","。纸是顺序的，装订是顺序的，翻页是顺序的，所以我们把一张图压成一条线，然后指望读者自己再把它拆开、重新组装。",[11,38544,38545],{},"这里有一个有点讽刺的地方：网页其实是天然支持非线性阅读的。折叠、跳转、悬浮预览、双向链接，技术上全都存在。但我们依然在用线性的写作工具，生产线性的制品，再把它放到一个非线性的媒介上。最后得到的，是一篇被伪装成网页的 PDF。",[11,38547,38548],{},"所以「压扁」这件事，写的人付一次，读的人付一次，每个合作者再各付一次。它是一个被反复征收的成本。",[11,38550,38551],{},"有人会说，图结构的写作工具不是早就有了吗？Obsidian、Logseq、Roam Research 的双向链接，不就是图吗？",[11,38553,38554,38555,38558,38559,2247,38562,38565,38566,38569],{},"是图，但粒度不对。这些工具的节点是",[305,38556,38557],{},"笔记","，不是",[305,38560,38561],{},"命题",[37834,38563,38564],{},"[[因果推断]]"," 这样一条链接只说了「这两篇相关」，没有说「这篇支持那篇」还是「这篇反驳那篇」。而当边没有类型的时候，一张论证图就退化成了一个共现网络。图上只剩下相关性，可科学写作里最要紧的东西恰恰是",[305,38567,38568],{},"边的类型","：支持、反驳、假设、推导、检验。",[11,38571,38572],{},"Zettelkasten 也是同样的情况。它的原意是让想法自由连接、自然涌现，服务于「我该想什么」，而不是「我这个论证成不成立」。卡片之间可以链接，但链接不带论证语义。",[11,38574,38575,38576,38579,38580,38687],{},"另一个方向是 Pandoc、Quarto、MyST、Jupyter Book 这一类。它们的贡献是实打实的：让你能在 Markdown 里写公式、写 ",[37834,38577,38578],{},"@fig:xxx"," 这样的交叉引用。但它们做的是",[305,38581,38582,38583,38686],{},"把 ",[15,38584,38586,38599],{"className":38585,"translate":19},[18],[15,38587,38589],{"className":38588},[23],[25,38590,38591],{"xmlns":27},[29,38592,38593,38597],{},[32,38594,38595],{},[238,38596,37933],{},[47,38598,37936],{"encoding":49},[15,38600,38602],{"className":38601,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,38603,38605,38608],{"className":38604},[58],[15,38606],{"className":38607,"style":37946},[62],[15,38609,38611,38614,38617,38637,38640],{"className":38610},[67,6301],[15,38612,37954],{"className":38613},[67,37953],[15,38615],{"className":38616,"style":37958},[77],[15,38618,38620],{"className":38619},[922],[15,38621,38623],{"className":38622},[927],[15,38624,38626],{"className":38625,"style":299},[931],[15,38627,38628,38631],{"style":37970},[15,38629],{"className":38630,"style":940},[939],[15,38632,38634],{"className":38633},[67],[15,38635,34970],{"className":38636},[67,37953,947,944,945,946],[15,38638],{"className":38639,"style":37983},[77],[15,38641,38643,38646,38649,38680,38683],{"className":38642},[67,6301],[15,38644,26331],{"className":38645},[67,37953],[15,38647],{"className":38648,"style":274},[77],[15,38650,38652,38672],{"className":38651},[922,923],[15,38653,38655,38669],{"className":38654},[927],[15,38656,38658],{"className":38657,"style":38002},[931],[15,38659,38660,38663],{"style":38005},[15,38661],{"className":38662,"style":18651},[939],[15,38664,38666],{"className":38665},[67],[15,38667,1346],{"className":38668},[67,37953],[15,38670,955],{"className":38671},[954],[15,38673,38675],{"className":38674},[927],[15,38676,38678],{"className":38677,"style":38024},[931],[15,38679],{},[15,38681],{"className":38682,"style":38030},[77],[15,38684,37],{"className":38685},[67,37953]," 的对象搬进 Markdown 的语法","，并没有动 Markdown 的骨架。文档的骨架依然是一个标题树，对象只是挂在树上的装饰。至于「这个公式是从哪个假设推出来的」这类关系，它们依然没有地方可以放。",[11,38689,38690,38691,38694],{},"两个方向的工具缺的是同一样东西：",[305,38692,38693],{},"它们都没有把「对象」和「关系」变成编辑器里可以直接操作的对象，也没有让文本变成这张图的一个投影。"," 一个是把边的类型丢了，一个是把对象降格成了树的装饰。而科学写作要求这两件事同时成立。",[1305,38696,38697],{"id":38697},"科学写作需要什么",[11,38699,38700],{},"如果要认真地解决这件事，工具大概需要具备以下几个性质。这是一张草图，不是一份产品方案。",[11,38702,38703,38706,38707,38810],{},[305,38704,38705],{},"第一，科学对象是一等公民。"," 这一点其实 ",[15,38708,38710,38723],{"className":38709,"translate":19},[18],[15,38711,38713],{"className":38712},[23],[25,38714,38715],{"xmlns":27},[29,38716,38717,38721],{},[32,38718,38719],{},[238,38720,37933],{},[47,38722,37936],{"encoding":49},[15,38724,38726],{"className":38725,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,38727,38729,38732],{"className":38728},[58],[15,38730],{"className":38731,"style":37946},[62],[15,38733,38735,38738,38741,38761,38764],{"className":38734},[67,6301],[15,38736,37954],{"className":38737},[67,37953],[15,38739],{"className":38740,"style":37958},[77],[15,38742,38744],{"className":38743},[922],[15,38745,38747],{"className":38746},[927],[15,38748,38750],{"className":38749,"style":299},[931],[15,38751,38752,38755],{"style":37970},[15,38753],{"className":38754,"style":940},[939],[15,38756,38758],{"className":38757},[67],[15,38759,34970],{"className":38760},[67,37953,947,944,945,946],[15,38762],{"className":38763,"style":37983},[77],[15,38765,38767,38770,38773,38804,38807],{"className":38766},[67,6301],[15,38768,26331],{"className":38769},[67,37953],[15,38771],{"className":38772,"style":274},[77],[15,38774,38776,38796],{"className":38775},[922,923],[15,38777,38779,38793],{"className":38778},[927],[15,38780,38782],{"className":38781,"style":38002},[931],[15,38783,38784,38787],{"style":38005},[15,38785],{"className":38786,"style":18651},[939],[15,38788,38790],{"className":38789},[67],[15,38791,1346],{"className":38792},[67,37953],[15,38794,955],{"className":38795},[954],[15,38797,38799],{"className":38798},[927],[15,38800,38802],{"className":38801,"style":38024},[931],[15,38803],{},[15,38805],{"className":38806,"style":38030},[77],[15,38808,37],{"className":38809},[67,37953]," 已经做到了，但是其他的写作工具仍然做得不彻底。一个 Definition、一个 Assumption、一个 Claim、一条 Evidence、一个 Prediction，应该是编辑器里真实存在的对象：有稳定 ID，有类型，有内容，而不是一段被加粗的文字。类型本身携带信息——修改一个 Assumption 和修改一个 Definition，后果完全不同。",[11,38812,38813,4327,38816,8386,38819,8386,38822,8386,38825,8386,38828,8386,38831,38834],{},[305,38814,38815],{},"第二，边是有类型的。",[37834,38817,38818],{},"supports",[37834,38820,38821],{},"contradicts",[37834,38823,38824],{},"assumes",[37834,38826,38827],{},"derives",[37834,38829,38830],{},"tests",[37834,38832,38833],{},"qualifies","。这是全文最核心的一条。只有节点类型和边的类型同时存在，才配叫论证图；只有节点，那是笔记库；只有无类型的边，那是共现网络。",[11,38836,38837,38840],{},[305,38838,38839],{},"第三，文本是图的一个投影。"," 意思是：论文不是唯一制品，而是某一张图在某一个视图下的渲染结果。同一张图应该能渲染成论文、组会 slides、审稿回复、以及一篇博客。现在的情况是反过来的——文字是本体的全部，图和 slides 都是它的下脚料。",[11,38842,38843,38846],{},[305,38844,38845],{},"第四，视图要可切换。"," 写作时用线性视图，检查覆盖面用大纲视图，审自己的逻辑用图视图。这三个视图必须操作同一份数据，否则又会退回到「手动同步」的老问题里。",[11,38848,38849,38852,38853,38855],{},[305,38850,38851],{},"第五，一致性检查应该上升到语义层。"," 编译器检查 ",[37834,38854,38355],{}," 指向的 label 是否存在，这是最浅的一层。再往上一层，工具应该能问：这个 Claim 有 Evidence 支撑吗？它的 Assumption 声明了吗？现有的 Evidence 支撑的是不是只是这个 Claim 的弱化版本？结论有没有超出实验能支持的范围？这些问题，本质上就是读者读论文时会问的那几个问题——工具应该先替他们问一遍。",[1305,38857,38858],{"id":38858},"为什么这件事一直没做成",[11,38860,38861,38862,2247],{},"既然需求这么明确，为什么没有这样的工具？因为",[305,38863,38864],{},"读一张图很便宜，写一张图很贵",[11,38866,38867],{},"一个理想的知识编辑系统，要求作者在想法还没成形的时候就声明「这个支持那个」「这个是从那个推出来的」。但正如前面说的，图是在写作过程中长出来的。要求作者提前声明关系，等于要求他在思考完成之前就交出思考的结论。这个交互本身就是反人性的。",[11,38869,38870,38871,38874],{},"这不是新问题。Bush 在上世纪四十年代设想的 Memex，Nelson 在六十年代提出的 Xanadu，都是「让人在非线性的知识网络里写作」的方案。它们没有普及，原因通常被归为工程难度和商业失败，但我更倾向于另一个解释：",[305,38872,38873],{},"人的思维展开是序列式的，图是事后归纳出来的。"," 我们不是先有图再写文章，而是先写文章才发现图长什么样。任何强迫作者「先建图再写作」的工具，都会在第一步被放弃。",[11,38876,38877,38878,38981,38982,38984,38985,38988],{},"这反过来解释了一件我一直觉得有意思的事：",[15,38879,38881,38894],{"className":38880,"translate":19},[18],[15,38882,38884],{"className":38883},[23],[25,38885,38886],{"xmlns":27},[29,38887,38888,38892],{},[32,38889,38890],{},[238,38891,37933],{},[47,38893,37936],{"encoding":49},[15,38895,38897],{"className":38896,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,38898,38900,38903],{"className":38899},[58],[15,38901],{"className":38902,"style":37946},[62],[15,38904,38906,38909,38912,38932,38935],{"className":38905},[67,6301],[15,38907,37954],{"className":38908},[67,37953],[15,38910],{"className":38911,"style":37958},[77],[15,38913,38915],{"className":38914},[922],[15,38916,38918],{"className":38917},[927],[15,38919,38921],{"className":38920,"style":299},[931],[15,38922,38923,38926],{"style":37970},[15,38924],{"className":38925,"style":940},[939],[15,38927,38929],{"className":38928},[67],[15,38930,34970],{"className":38931},[67,37953,947,944,945,946],[15,38933],{"className":38934,"style":37983},[77],[15,38936,38938,38941,38944,38975,38978],{"className":38937},[67,6301],[15,38939,26331],{"className":38940},[67,37953],[15,38942],{"className":38943,"style":274},[77],[15,38945,38947,38967],{"className":38946},[922,923],[15,38948,38950,38964],{"className":38949},[927],[15,38951,38953],{"className":38952,"style":38002},[931],[15,38954,38955,38958],{"style":38005},[15,38956],{"className":38957,"style":18651},[939],[15,38959,38961],{"className":38960},[67],[15,38962,1346],{"className":38963},[67,37953],[15,38965,955],{"className":38966},[954],[15,38968,38970],{"className":38969},[927],[15,38971,38973],{"className":38972,"style":38024},[931],[15,38974],{},[15,38976],{"className":38977,"style":38030},[77],[15,38979,37],{"className":38980},[67,37953]," 为什么活到了今天。它并不要求你放弃线性写作，它只要求你在必要的地方声明对象。你可以照常从头写到尾，只在需要的时候加一个 ",[37834,38983,38504],{},"。它是一个",[305,38986,38987],{},"树骨架 + 少量图边","的混合体。这个折中在工程上极其成功——它把「线性写作」和「图结构」之间的冲突压到了大多数人都能接受的水平。",[11,38990,38991,38992,39095],{},"所以 ",[15,38993,38995,39008],{"className":38994,"translate":19},[18],[15,38996,38998],{"className":38997},[23],[25,38999,39000],{"xmlns":27},[29,39001,39002,39006],{},[32,39003,39004],{},[238,39005,37933],{},[47,39007,37936],{"encoding":49},[15,39009,39011],{"className":39010,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,39012,39014,39017],{"className":39013},[58],[15,39015],{"className":39016,"style":37946},[62],[15,39018,39020,39023,39026,39046,39049],{"className":39019},[67,6301],[15,39021,37954],{"className":39022},[67,37953],[15,39024],{"className":39025,"style":37958},[77],[15,39027,39029],{"className":39028},[922],[15,39030,39032],{"className":39031},[927],[15,39033,39035],{"className":39034,"style":299},[931],[15,39036,39037,39040],{"style":37970},[15,39038],{"className":39039,"style":940},[939],[15,39041,39043],{"className":39042},[67],[15,39044,34970],{"className":39045},[67,37953,947,944,945,946],[15,39047],{"className":39048,"style":37983},[77],[15,39050,39052,39055,39058,39089,39092],{"className":39051},[67,6301],[15,39053,26331],{"className":39054},[67,37953],[15,39056],{"className":39057,"style":274},[77],[15,39059,39061,39081],{"className":39060},[922,923],[15,39062,39064,39078],{"className":39063},[927],[15,39065,39067],{"className":39066,"style":38002},[931],[15,39068,39069,39072],{"style":38005},[15,39070],{"className":39071,"style":18651},[939],[15,39073,39075],{"className":39074},[67],[15,39076,1346],{"className":39077},[67,37953],[15,39079,955],{"className":39080},[954],[15,39082,39084],{"className":39083},[927],[15,39085,39087],{"className":39086,"style":38024},[931],[15,39088],{},[15,39090],{"className":39091,"style":38030},[77],[15,39093,37],{"className":39094},[67,37953]," 的地位并不只是历史惯性。它在科学写作里没有被淘汰，是因为它是目前唯一一个既把对象和引用做成了语言原语、又不强迫作者放弃线性写作的系统。它的不足也在这里：图边只有引用这一种类型，而且维护成本随文章长度急剧上升——这正是文章开头我花两周校对的原因。",[1305,39097,39099],{"id":39098},"在工具出现之前我现在怎么工作","在工具出现之前，我现在怎么工作",[11,39101,39102],{},"没有现成工具，只能用流程凑。我目前的办法是把「图」和「文」分成两层，中间只做一次机械转换。",[11,39104,39105],{},"草图层不管顺序，只管对象和关系。给每个对象一个短 ID：",[4108,39107,39108],{},[4111,39109],{"height":39110,"width":39111,"style":4115,"data-d2-theme":4116,"alt":39112,"src":39113},679,1255,"以《因果结构模型文章》为例，论证的依赖关系图","data:image\u002Fsvg+xml;base64,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\u002Fmm7\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",[11,39115,39116,39117,39220,39221,39223,39224,39226,39227,39230],{},"然后在成文层，把这些 ID 落成 ",[15,39118,39120,39133],{"className":39119,"translate":19},[18],[15,39121,39123],{"className":39122},[23],[25,39124,39125],{"xmlns":27},[29,39126,39127,39131],{},[32,39128,39129],{},[238,39130,37933],{},[47,39132,37936],{"encoding":49},[15,39134,39136],{"className":39135,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,39137,39139,39142],{"className":39138},[58],[15,39140],{"className":39141,"style":37946},[62],[15,39143,39145,39148,39151,39171,39174],{"className":39144},[67,6301],[15,39146,37954],{"className":39147},[67,37953],[15,39149],{"className":39150,"style":37958},[77],[15,39152,39154],{"className":39153},[922],[15,39155,39157],{"className":39156},[927],[15,39158,39160],{"className":39159,"style":299},[931],[15,39161,39162,39165],{"style":37970},[15,39163],{"className":39164,"style":940},[939],[15,39166,39168],{"className":39167},[67],[15,39169,34970],{"className":39170},[67,37953,947,944,945,946],[15,39172],{"className":39173,"style":37983},[77],[15,39175,39177,39180,39183,39214,39217],{"className":39176},[67,6301],[15,39178,26331],{"className":39179},[67,37953],[15,39181],{"className":39182,"style":274},[77],[15,39184,39186,39206],{"className":39185},[922,923],[15,39187,39189,39203],{"className":39188},[927],[15,39190,39192],{"className":39191,"style":38002},[931],[15,39193,39194,39197],{"style":38005},[15,39195],{"className":39196,"style":18651},[939],[15,39198,39200],{"className":39199},[67],[15,39201,1346],{"className":39202},[67,37953],[15,39204,955],{"className":39205},[954],[15,39207,39209],{"className":39208},[927],[15,39210,39212],{"className":39211,"style":38024},[931],[15,39213],{},[15,39215],{"className":39216,"style":38030},[77],[15,39218,37],{"className":39219},[67,37953]," 的 ",[37834,39222,38504],{}," 和 ",[37834,39225,38355],{},"。这样做的好处是：",[305,39228,39229],{},"压扁只发生在最后一步，而且是可逆的","——草图层始终在，任何时候都能回到图上检查。改动时先动草图层，再重新生成文本层的引用，而不是反过来。",[11,39232,39233],{},"诚实地说，这只是把痛苦从脑子里挪到了纸上，并没有消除手动维护。但它至少让「图」变成了一个可以被检查的实体，而不是一个只存在于我记忆里的东西。而且它带来一个意外的收益：这些 ID 本身，恰好可以当作和 LLM 交流的接口。",[1305,39235,39237],{"id":39236},"当-llm-进入这张图","当 LLM 进入这张图",[11,39239,39240],{},"回到文章开头那个略显狼狈的结尾：那篇文章我写了两周，最后精力不支，交给了 LLM 仓促发表。",[11,39242,39243,39244],{},"当时我把它当成一次失败。但现在回头看，它其实指出了一个更重要的变化：",[305,39245,39246],{},"LLM 是历史上第一个有可能承担「图维护」这件事的东西。",[11,39248,39249],{},"前面说「写图很贵」，贵在哪里？贵在三件事：声明关系、保持一致、以及结构变动后重新检查下游。这三件事恰好都是 LLM 擅长的。它能读完一段文本后抽出隐含的 Claim 和 Evidence，能在插入新假设之后重新检查所有依赖它的结论，能在你改动一个定义时把下游的引用全部找出来。",[11,39251,39252,39253,39256,39257,2247],{},"但这里有一个前提，而且是致命的前提：",[305,39254,39255],{},"LLM 在显式的图上工作，远好于在隐式的图上工作。"," 如果关系从来不曾落在文件里，LLM 也只能像我一样去猜，而且会猜得同样不可靠。所以「把图显式化」这件事的性质变了——它不再纯粹是作者的额外负担，而是让机器能够介入的前提。也许真正可行的分工不是「作者建图、作者维护图」，而是",[305,39258,39259],{},"作者建图、机器维护图",[11,39261,39262],{},"不过有一个反向的危险，值得单独说。LLM 天然擅长生成流畅的线性文本，它会不由自主地把你论证里的裂缝糊上。一段话读起来通顺，和这个论证成不成立，是两件完全不同的事，而 LLM 恰好最擅长制造前者。我用 LLM 校对那篇两周的文章时就吃过这个亏：它把很多衔接不畅的地方改顺了，但那些地方原本的不畅，其实是论证真的没接上。",[11,39264,39265,39266,39269],{},"所以 LLM 在这件事上的正确用法，是当图的审查者，而不是文本的润色者。",[305,39267,39268],{},"让它问我「这个 Claim 的证据在哪里」，而不是问它「这段话怎么写得更好」。"," 前者会暴露问题，后者只会掩盖问题。",[1305,39271,39272],{"id":39272},"结语",[11,39274,39275],{},"如果把三种写作对应到三种数据结构，会看得更清楚：日常写作对应的是序列（Sequence），句子接句子，核心是语言流。技术写作对应的是树（Tree），文档下分节，节下分概念与流程，核心是信息层级，Markdown 对此非常合适。",[11,39277,39278],{},"而科学写作对应的则是图（Graph），一个 Claim 由 Evidence 支持、由 Assumption 建立基础、由 Model 推导而来、由 Experiment 加以检验，核心是命题之间的逻辑关系。到了这一层，Markdown 就开始显得太扁平了。",[11,39280,39281],{},"无论是读者还是写作者，实际上一直在追问：这个 Claim 从哪里来的？这个 Assumption 合理吗？这个公式是否真的从前面的定义推出？这个实验是否真的能够验证这个 Claim？这个结果还有没有其他解释？结论有没有超出实验能够支持的范围？所以科学写作，本质上是在维护一张 Claim、Evidence、Reasoning 三者互相印证的关系网络。",[11,39283,39284],{},"这也解释了为什么科学写作写久之后，我会逐渐不满足于 Markdown。",[11,39286,39287],{},"不是因为它不够漂亮，因为真正需要的已经不再是一个好用的文本编辑器，而是一个能够表达定义、命题、假设、推导、证据、引用和论证关系的科学知识编辑系统。",[11,39289,39290,39291,39294],{},"这三种数据结构也解释了前面所有具体的痛苦。序列容错，所以日常写作拿记事本就能对付；树可以局部修改，所以技术文档在 Markdown 里如鱼得水；而",[305,39292,39293],{},"图一旦被压成线，每一次改动都要付出全局的代价","——那两周的校对时间，大部分就是花在这里的。",[11,39296,39297,39298,39401],{},"所以在那个系统出现之前，我大概还会继续用 Markdown 写博客、用 ",[15,39299,39301,39314],{"className":39300,"translate":19},[18],[15,39302,39304],{"className":39303},[23],[25,39305,39306],{"xmlns":27},[29,39307,39308,39312],{},[32,39309,39310],{},[238,39311,37933],{},[47,39313,37936],{"encoding":49},[15,39315,39317],{"className":39316,"ariaHidden":41},[54],[15,39318,39320,39323],{"className":39319},[58],[15,39321],{"className":39322,"style":37946},[62],[15,39324,39326,39329,39332,39352,39355],{"className":39325},[67,6301],[15,39327,37954],{"className":39328},[67,37953],[15,39330],{"className":39331,"style":37958},[77],[15,39333,39335],{"className":39334},[922],[15,39336,39338],{"className":39337},[927],[15,39339,39341],{"className":39340,"style":299},[931],[15,39342,39343,39346],{"style":37970},[15,39344],{"className":39345,"style":940},[939],[15,39347,39349],{"className":39348},[67],[15,39350,34970],{"className":39351},[67,37953,947,944,945,946],[15,39353],{"className":39354,"style":37983},[77],[15,39356,39358,39361,39364,39395,39398],{"className":39357},[67,6301],[15,39359,26331],{"className":39360},[67,37953],[15,39362],{"className":39363,"style":274},[77],[15,39365,39367,39387],{"className":39366},[922,923],[15,39368,39370,39384],{"className":39369},[927],[15,39371,39373],{"className":39372,"style":38002},[931],[15,39374,39375,39378],{"style":38005},[15,39376],{"className":39377,"style":18651},[939],[15,39379,39381],{"className":39380},[67],[15,39382,1346],{"className":39383},[67,37953],[15,39385,955],{"className":39386},[954],[15,39388,39390],{"className":39389},[927],[15,39391,39393],{"className":39392,"style":38024},[931],[15,39394],{},[15,39396],{"className":39397,"style":38030},[77],[15,39399,37],{"className":39400},[67,37953]," 写论文，并且在两者之间手动维护一张只有我自己看得见的图。这篇文章本身也是用 Markdown 写的——这大概是它最后一个恰当的讽刺。",[37774,39403,39404],{},[11,39405,39406],{},"Markdown 的问题不是它表达不了科学内容，而是它把科学内容中最重要的那部分——对象之间的论证关系——降格成了文本。",[39408,39409,39410],"style",{},"html .light .shiki span {color: var(--shiki-light);background: var(--shiki-light-bg);font-style: var(--shiki-light-font-style);font-weight: var(--shiki-light-font-weight);text-decoration: var(--shiki-light-text-decoration);}html.light .shiki span {color: var(--shiki-light);background: var(--shiki-light-bg);font-style: var(--shiki-light-font-style);font-weight: var(--shiki-light-font-weight);text-decoration: var(--shiki-light-text-decoration);}html .default .shiki span {color: var(--shiki-default);background: var(--shiki-default-bg);font-style: var(--shiki-default-font-style);font-weight: var(--shiki-default-font-weight);text-decoration: var(--shiki-default-text-decoration);}html .shiki span {color: var(--shiki-default);background: var(--shiki-default-bg);font-style: var(--shiki-default-font-style);font-weight: var(--shiki-default-font-weight);text-decoration: var(--shiki-default-text-decoration);}html .dark .shiki span {color: var(--shiki-dark);background: var(--shiki-dark-bg);font-style: var(--shiki-dark-font-style);font-weight: var(--shiki-dark-font-weight);text-decoration: var(--shiki-dark-text-decoration);}html.dark .shiki span {color: var(--shiki-dark);background: var(--shiki-dark-bg);font-style: var(--shiki-dark-font-style);font-weight: var(--shiki-dark-font-weight);text-decoration: var(--shiki-dark-text-decoration);}",{"title":4117,"searchDepth":37677,"depth":37677,"links":39412},[39413,39414,39415,39416,39417,39418,39419,39420,39421,39422],{"id":37763,"depth":37677,"text":37763},{"id":37808,"depth":37677,"text":37808},{"id":37885,"depth":37677,"text":37885},{"id":38385,"depth":37677,"text":38385},{"id":38525,"depth":37677,"text":38525},{"id":38697,"depth":37677,"text":38697},{"id":38858,"depth":37677,"text":38858},{"id":39098,"depth":37677,"text":39099},{"id":39236,"depth":37677,"text":39237},{"id":39272,"depth":37677,"text":39272},{},"\u002Fblog\u002F2026\u002F0006-markdown-ke-xue-xie-zuo-tong-dian-wen-ti",{"title":37723,"description":37728},"blog\u002F2026\u002F0006-markdown-ke-xue-xie-zuo-tong-dian-wen-ti","写作的格式工具会悄悄影响到你的行文组织方式。Markdown 与其说「不适合写科学内容」，不如说它的抽象层级主要是「轻量文档标记」，而科学写作本质上更接近「结构化知识建模」。",[39429],"thoughts","2026-09-22T22:53:33+08:00","bdCBbBDqfmLRWSRlu3duJ1udbcTOKHpeg3xAyvxH5EM",{"id":39433,"title":39434,"body":39435,"description":4117,"draft":37707,"enableCodeHighlight":37707,"enableCodeHightlight":37707,"enableComment":37708,"enableD2":37707,"enableKatex":37707,"extension":37709,"image":4117,"important":37707,"location":37712,"meta":39711,"navigation":37708,"ogImage":37712,"path":39712,"seo":39713,"stem":39714,"summary":39715,"tags":39716,"time":39717,"__hash__":39718},"blog\u002Fblog\u002F2026\u002F0002-brief-biography-of-von-neumann.md","冯 · 诺依曼小传",{"type":8,"value":39436,"toc":39701},[39437,39440,39443,39446,39452,39455,39458,39461,39464,39467,39470,39473,39476,39479,39482,39485,39488,39491,39494,39497,39500,39503,39506,39509,39512,39515,39518,39521,39524,39527,39530,39533,39536,39539,39542,39548,39551,39554,39557,39560,39563,39566,39569,39572,39575,39578,39581,39584,39587,39590,39593,39596,39599,39602,39605,39608,39611,39614,39617,39620,39623,39626,39629,39632,39635,39638,39641,39644,39647,39650,39653,39656,39659,39662,39665,39668,39671,39674,39677,39680,39683,39686,39689,39692,39695,39698],[1305,39438,39439],{"id":39439},"布达佩斯",[11,39441,39442],{},"匈牙利，1903 年 12 月 28 日，布达佩斯的一户殷实人家添了第一个男孩。父亲马克斯·诺依曼是位银行家，母亲玛吉特·肯恩出身富商之家。家里人叫他「扬奇」——匈牙利名字扬诺什的昵称。他还有两个弟弟，米哈伊和米克洛什。",[11,39444,39445],{},"扬奇从小就不太寻常——别的小孩还在学数数，他已经能用古希腊语跟父亲互相打趣了。他后来懂六种以上语言：匈牙利语、德语、法语、英语、拉丁语、古希腊语，晚年还学一点西班牙语。乌拉姆回忆，他用英语写论文时，已经能写出比大多数美国数学家更地道的英文散文。他学新语言的路子，跟解数学题是同一个路数——有同事回忆，他拿到一本新语言的语法书，先翻动词变位表，自己把规则推演出来，再拿例句验证。",[11,39447,39448],{},[4111,39449],{"alt":39450,"src":39451},"童年时的约翰 · 冯 · 诺依曼","https:\u002F\u002Fimage-assets.dreams.plus\u002F202609020248182.png",[11,39453,39454],{},"六岁那年，他在心里算两个八位数的除法，速度快得让在座的客人怀疑是提前排练的把戏。他母亲有一次在饭桌上一时兴起，随口考他：「你说，你要是盯着窗外看，脑子里能想什么？」扬奇想都没想地回答出一堆答案，逗得全家人哈哈大笑——这大概是他这辈子第一次在饭桌上「表演」，后来这种饭桌高谈阔论的习惯，他保持了一辈子。",[11,39456,39457],{},"一九一三年，皇帝弗朗茨·约瑟夫册封马克斯为贵族，授予世袭的「玛尔吉泰」头衔——大致相当于德语里的「冯」。父亲自己没把这个头衔当回事，倒是儿子后来在德文论文上署起了「冯·诺依曼」的名字，一路用到了美国。",[11,39459,39460],{},"十岁那年，家里给他请了数学家教。没多久，一位名叫费凯特的匈牙利数学家登门找他讨论高等数学——据说聊到后来，这位比他大十几岁的年轻人被眼前的少年感动得眼眶发热。费凯特后来成了他学术生涯的引路人之一，两人还合写了他最早的一篇论文。",[11,39462,39463],{},"也是在十来岁的年纪，他一头扎进家里一套四十八卷本的《世界历史》，几个月就啃完了，之后养成一个爱好：拿当下报纸上的新闻，跟历史上某场战役类比，一本正经地讨论两边的战术优劣，仿佛在分析一盘棋局。他的记性好得被家人和师长传成奇谈——据说他能背下一整本小说，能记住电话簿里连续好几页的号码，谁想考他，报个页码就行。多年以后，普林斯顿一位专攻拜占庭史的教授私下承认，聊起拜占庭历史的细节，三十多岁的诺依曼懂得比他这个专业教授还多——而这只是诺依曼的一个业余爱好。",[11,39465,39466],{},"不过，扬奇不是散养出来的神童。马克斯给儿子请的不是普通家教，而是布达佩斯大学的年轻数学家和科学家，让他们定期来家里上课；诺依曼的弟弟后来回忆，家里餐厅的椅子常常被拉到书房去，因为「上课的人太多了」。父亲自己没受过多少正规科学训练，但他知道什么值得花钱——他给儿子买的，是一整套经过设计的私人教育。",[11,39468,39469],{},"这样的家教安排，在那个年代的布达佩斯并不罕见。二十世纪初，布达佩斯的一批犹太中产家庭把数学和语言教育当成头等大事，舍得为下一代花钱；诺依曼、维格纳、西拉德、特勒、冯·卡门——这些后来跟原子弹、氢弹、航空这些词紧紧绑在一起的名字——都出自同一个城市、相近的阶层。这群人中间后来流传一个玩笑：火星上的侦察兵在布达佩斯落脚，跟当地人通婚，留下孩子，又回了火星，于是有了这批「不像地球人」的科学家。玩笑归玩笑，背景是实的：诺依曼和维格纳上的是同一所路德中学，教过他们数学的是同一位老师——拉茨·拉斯洛。诺依曼不是孤例，他只是这一批人里算得最快、路走得最宽的一个。",[11,39471,39472],{},"家里原本盘算让他子承父业，将来接银行的班，至少学门「正经手艺」。至于数学，父亲倒也不反对，只是觉得那门手艺养活不了人。",[1305,39474,39475],{"id":39475},"从化学到量子力学",[11,39477,39478],{},"于是，他一边挂名在苏黎世联邦理工学院读化学工程，一边偷偷跑去旁听数学课，每学期还要跑回布达佩斯参加考试。两条腿走路，两头都没耽误：二十岁上下，他先后拿到了苏黎世的化学工程文凭和布达佩斯大学的数学博士学位，论文题目是《集合论的公理化》，那年他二十二岁。头一篇正式发表的论文，其实早在中学时代就出来了——一九二二年，还不满十八岁的他和费凯特合写了一篇文章，讨论一类极小多项式零点的位置，把切比雪夫多项式的一个经典结果往前推了一步。",[11,39480,39481],{},"父亲的心愿和儿子自己的兴趣，算是用一种曲线救国的方式两全了。那套化学工程的训练他后来几乎没再用过，倒是养成了他一辈子的习惯：把物理问题先翻译成数学，再拿数学去对付它。",[11,39483,39484],{},"博士毕业那年秋天，他拿了一笔洛克菲勒奖学金去了哥廷根，在大卫·希尔伯特身边做研究。那时候量子力学刚成形不过几年，海森堡的矩阵力学、薛定谔的波动力学、玻恩的概率诠释，各家表述五花八门，物理学家正吵得不可开交。诺依曼在哥廷根那几年，做的一桩费力的事：把量子力学翻译成严格的数学语言。他用希尔伯特空间搭起统一框架，讨论观测量的谱分解，还头一回把「测量」写成一个数学过程——一九三二年出版的德文专著《量子力学的数学基础》，成了这个领域绕不过去的一本书。这套「给年轻学科搭骨架」的本事，往后他还会用很多次。",[11,39486,39487],{},"一九三〇年九月，在哥尼斯堡的一场学术会议上，一位叫库尔特·哥德尔的年轻逻辑学家报告了一个令人不安的结果：任何足够强的一致公理系统里，都有既不能证明也不能证伪的命题——这就是后来著名的「不完备定理」。台下大多数听众没太当回事，诺依曼却当场就抓住了证明的要害。散会之后他顺着想下去，琢磨出一个哥德尔当时还没说透的推论：这样的系统连「自身是一致的」这件事都无法证明。他写了一封信给哥德尔，信里把这个结论完整地推了一遍。等哥德尔的回信到了，他才得知，哥德尔本人也已经发现了这个结果，正在把它写进次年发表的文章里。诺依曼没有争这个先后，后来还在公开场合把功劳归给哥德尔。",[11,39489,39490],{},"在柏林和汉堡当讲师的那些年，他一边教课一边写，算子理论、遍历理论、测度论，到处都有他插手的痕迹。",[1305,39492,39493],{"id":39493},"研究院与博弈论",[11,39495,39496],{},"一九三〇年，他应普林斯顿大学的邀请跨过大西洋去讲学。一九三三年，新成立的普林斯顿高等研究院聘他做创始教授——第一批六位教授里，有爱因斯坦，有外尔，有刚从纳粹德国跑出来的哥德尔。诺依曼是最年轻的一个。",[11,39498,39499],{},"三十年代是他学术上最密集的一段时间。他跟弗朗西斯·默里合作，把「算子代数」这门学科从无到有地搭起来——后来这套东西被称作「冯·诺依曼代数」，至今仍是数学和量子物理交叉处的重要工具。他还把集合论里「序数」的定义做了现代化处理，证明了紧群上哈默测度的唯一性；一九三二年，他又证明了动力系统里一个关于时间平均的定理——后来被称作「平均遍历定理」，成了统计物理的基本工具。光是在普林斯顿的头十年，他横跨的领域多得让同行咋舌——但「咋舌」是我们这些后来的读者会用的词，当时他身边人的反应往往是：又来了。",[11,39501,39502],{},"一九二八年，他还在柏林时就发表过一篇讨论博弈的文章，研究两人零和博弈，证明了著名的「极小极大定理」——玩家在最坏情况下求最好结果的策略，跟对方的策略同时达成平衡。这篇论文当时在数学圈里没掀起多少波澜。真正让它出圈，要等他和一位经济学家奥卡·莫根施特恩的合作。莫根施特恩是奥地利人，一九三八年逃到普林斯顿，两人一拍即合，一九四四年出版了《博弈论与经济行为》——一本经济学史和数学史上都绕不过去的大书。把「博弈」变成一门有严格结构的学科，跟当年给量子力学搭骨架，是同一个路数。",[11,39504,39505],{},"研究院边上，他的生活渐渐固定下来。家里几乎每周都要开派对，客厅里高朋满座，他自己端着酒杯一圈一圈地敬酒讲笑话，笑话大多带点荤腥，气氛总能被他搅得热闹非凡。据好友乌拉姆回忆，他喜欢昂贵的西装、烈酒和跑车，是那种谁都愿意请去撑场面的座上宾。",[11,39507,39508],{},"他跟哥德尔的交情值得一提。哥德尔是出了名的孤僻，在研究院里少有人能跟他真正说上话，诺依曼是少数几个。两人常在普林斯顿的林间小道上一起散步，一聊就是很久——聊的什么，旁人很少知道，大约是逻辑与数学的底细。研究院里的气氛并不总是一团和气：他跟外尔能合作，跟爱因斯坦之间却谈不上热络，两人对许多事情的看法相去甚远，尤其是在战争与核武器的问题上。",[11,39510,39511],{},"还有一件后来才被翻出来的小事。一九三八年春天，一位名叫艾伦·图灵的英国青年在普林斯顿完成了他的博士论文——那篇论文后来被称为「图灵机」的构想。诺依曼读过之后，提出让他留在高等研究院给自己当助手，年薪一千五百美元。图灵谢绝了，他说剑桥国王学院的职位更合意，然后乘船回了英国。多年以后人们回头翻这段旧账，常常感叹：如果当时图灵留了下来，计算机的早期历史也许会换一副样子。",[11,39513,39514],{},"一九三七年，他入了美国籍。也是那段时间，他离了婚，娶了第二任妻子克拉拉·丹。第一段婚姻的另一位主角玛丽埃特是布达佩斯人，两人婚后有个女儿玛丽娜，生于一九三五年。离婚后，玛丽娜先在母亲身边长大，后来又回到父亲身边。分隔两地的时候，他给女儿写很长的信；玛丽娜在回忆录里写道，有一封信，头八页都在劝她别急着结婚，后面才转到她的论文，再扯到他自己对历史的看法，顺手引了几段法文史料。玛丽娜后来读了经济学，一九七二年被尼克松任命为总统经济顾问委员会成员——是头一个坐上那个位子的女性。她晚年给回忆录起名《火星人的女儿》，写的就是前面那批「火星人」里的她父亲。",[11,39516,39517],{},"战争还没打起来，他的顾问身份就先忙上了。一九三七年之后，他先后给陆军和海军当顾问，处理弹道、炸药和空气动力学的问题。他参与改进了「聚能装药」——一种把炸药能量聚焦成射流来击穿装甲的设计，后来成了反坦克武器的原理。这些事他做得不声不响，连研究院里的同事都未必清楚。同一时期，他那几个布达佩斯老同乡也在为同一件事奔走——一九三九年，西拉德、维格纳和特勒三个人起草了一封给罗斯福的信，借爱因斯坦的名字签了出去，提醒美国政府注意铀裂变的前景；诺依曼没有在这封信上署名，但布达佩斯这群人之间，消息向来是通的。",[1305,39519,39520],{"id":39520},"原子弹的算盘",[11,39522,39523],{},"一九四三年，奥本海默把诺依曼请到了洛斯阿拉莫斯。名义上他是顾问，实际上他很快成了原子弹设计里「算」这一环的关键人物。",[11,39525,39526],{},"原子弹的临界质量怎么算？炸药怎么聚爆才对称？冲击波在水里、在空气里怎么传播？这些在诺依曼到来之前，许多还停留在估算阶段。他把流体力学和数值方法带进了洛斯阿拉莫斯，一起带进去的还有他那张出了名的「活计算器」。聚爆方案最初是另一位物理学家奈德迈耶提出的大胆设想，但把设想变成能用的设计，需要算清楚球面聚爆的流体力学细节——诺依曼接过这一摊，跟化学家基斯塔科夫斯基合作，把炸药透镜的配方和几何一点点调出来。他还算过另一种打法：把核弹在高空引爆，让冲击波在更大的面积上均匀压下来，造成的破坏比地面引爆大得多。广岛和长崎的投弹高度，就参考了这套计算。",[11,39528,39529],{},"一九四五年七月十六日凌晨，新墨西哥州阿拉莫戈多沙漠，人类第一次核爆试验——「三位一体」——在那里进行。诺依曼就站在观看的人群里，看着那颗以他的方程为基础的炸弹把自己烧成白光。他回去之后说了什么，没有可靠的记载；能确认的是，他给这次试验做过大量的计算，也为此吸收了不少辐射。在洛斯阿拉莫斯那段日子，他跟费米、费曼这些人在食堂里一桌吃饭、插科打诨，照样是那身讲究的打扮。原子弹的严肃和这些日常混在一起，在他身上并不显得矛盾。",[11,39531,39532],{},"战后他留在这个圈子里。氢弹的「超级」方案，他是最早的推动者之一；一九四六年他跟乌拉姆一起，在洛斯阿拉莫斯继续做数值计算。这些工作后来凝结成了他冷战幕僚生涯的一部分。",[1305,39534,39535],{"id":39535},"从算数到思考",[11,39537,39538],{},"战争还没结束，另一条线索已经悄悄接上了。",[11,39540,39541],{},"一九四四年夏天，在阿伯丁的火车站台上，诺依曼碰上了陆军派到宾夕法尼亚大学的联络官赫曼·哥德斯坦。哥德斯坦随口说起，大学里正在建造一台叫 ENIAC 的电子计算机——一万八千个真空管，用来算火炮射表。诺依曼听完，没过多久就出现在摩尔学院的每次设计会上。那一年正是曼哈顿计划最紧的时候，他两头跑；他很快意识到，这种「机器自动算」的路子，正是洛斯阿拉莫斯需要的。",[11,39543,39544],{},[4111,39545],{"alt":39546,"src":39547},"埃尼阿克计算机","https:\u002F\u002Fimage-assets.dreams.plus\u002F202609020249186.png",[11,39549,39550],{},"一九四五年六月，他起草了一份报告，题目叫《EDVAC 报告初稿》，把「存储程序」的思想写成白纸黑字——程序和数据一样放进内存，机器读一条执行一条，不必再靠插拔接线来「改程序」。",[11,39552,39553],{},"这份打印稿在圈子里私下流传，日后被称作「冯·诺依曼架构」的雏形。",[11,39555,39556],{},"严格说，「存储程序」是小组讨论的产物，不全是他的发明；但把它提炼成一份清晰的文件，又一路推动它付诸实现的，是他。这一步的关键不在算得快，而在想得远：机器从此不只是算数的工具，程序本身也成了可以被读写的东西。",[11,39558,39559],{},"战后他在高等研究院主持电子计算机项目，一九五二年，那台「IAS 机」正式跑了起来。这台机器的图纸流传出去，成了好几家机构机器的蓝本——兰德公司照着造的那台，直接被人叫作「约翰尼艾克」。",[11,39561,39562],{},"为了让机器有正经事干，他和乌拉姆、梅特罗波利斯一起，把一种用随机数抽样逼近复杂计算的「蒙特卡洛方法」搬上了机器，用来算中子的扩散。",[11,39564,39565],{},"他一边算，一边开玩笑：任何想用确定性办法产生随机数的人，都是「活在罪孽之中」。这句玩笑后来成了统计学家们的名言。顺带一提，他的第二任妻子克拉拉·丹也是这台机器背后的早期程序员之一，替蒙特卡洛计算写过代码。",[11,39567,39568],{},"他还惦记着用机器预报天气。四十年代他就反复对人说，天气预报是计算机最有价值的用途之一，甚至把人工造雨、控制气候也算进计算的版图。一九五二年前后，他拉了几位气象学家，真的在 IAS 机上跑起了数值天气预报——那台机器算一次要用很久，但方向算是立住了。",[11,39570,39571],{},"从「机器能算什么」到「机器到底是什么」，这条路他一路走到了底。他琢磨「自动机」能不能自我复制，设计过一个理论上能复制自身的自动机，还在一次研讨会上做过一场题为《自动机的逻辑理论》的演讲，讨论机器与人脑的关系。",[11,39573,39574],{},"一九五二年一月，他在加州理工连讲五讲，题目是《概率逻辑与由不可靠元件合成可靠有机体》。灵感来自脑子：神经元单个来看并不牢靠，可整颗脑子照样运转稳定——问题是，怎么用一堆不可靠的零件，拼出一台可靠到能算能记的机器。",[11,39576,39577],{},"这份讲稿后来在《自动机研究》上刊出，成了后世「容错计算」最早的理论基础之一。他一辈子都在跟「系统内部的不可靠」打交道，从集合论里的不完备，到神经元的不稳定，说到底像是同一件事。",[11,39579,39580],{},"这些想法他生前没有写完，身后被整理成《自复制自动机理论》一书。他给耶鲁预备的最后一份讲稿，题目就叫《计算机与人脑》，讲的还是同一个执念：机器和脑子，到底谁跟谁学。",[11,39582,39583],{},"有一次，记者问他正在想什么。他说：「我在想一件比炸弹重要得多的事——我在想计算机。」这话流传得很广，因为说这话的人，炸弹和计算机两样都参与得很深。",[1305,39585,39586],{"id":39586},"冷战幕僚",[11,39588,39589],{},"同一时期，他的另一副面孔也在忙碌。",[11,39591,39592],{},"学术这边，他把博弈论从桌上的游戏推向对人类决策的一般描述。跟莫根施特恩合著的《博弈论与经济行为》一九四四年出版，一开始读者寥寥——经济学家嫌它太数学，数学家嫌它太经济学。",[11,39594,39595],{},"诺依曼没太在意，照样在各种场合宣传这套东西「能描述一切有利益冲突的人类活动」。一九四七年十月，一个叫乔治·丹齐格的年轻人带着一道卡了自己很久的线性规划题来见他。",[11,39597,39598],{},"诺依曼看了一眼，说了句「哦，这个啊」，然后当场在黑板前面讲了一个多小时，把线性规划的「对偶性」从头推到尾——这个结论，丹齐格之前翻遍了文献也没找到。丹齐格后来回忆，自己当场就学会了法卡斯引理和对偶理论。而这场即兴讲座的另一个副产品，是把博弈论和线性规划这两种此前不搭界的数学连到了一起。",[11,39600,39601],{},"公共事务这边，他越来越深地卷进冷战。他是空军科学顾问委员会的成员，是兰德公司的顾问——兰德公司在加州的圣莫尼卡，他战后常去那边——还替原子能委员会出谋划策。",[11,39603,39604],{},"博弈论在这里找到了最严肃的用武之地：核威慑，本质上被他说成一场玩家之间不停盘算对方底牌的博弈。他的政治立场之强硬，在当时的科学家里也属于突出的那一档——一九五〇年，他私下对不少人讲过，美国应该趁苏联还没造出氢弹，先发制人。",[11,39606,39607],{},"这个主张在研究院的同僚里并不讨喜，研究院里也有不少人跟他观点相左，但在白宫和五角大楼的走廊里，他的话很受用。",[11,39609,39610],{},"一九五四年，奥本海默的安全听证会开庭。诺依曼和奥本海默在氢弹问题上站得正相反，可他还是去做了证人。听证官问他对奥本海默的忠诚怎么看，他说：毫无疑问，没有任何怀疑。他又当着听证官的面把两件事分开——反对氢弹是一回事，忠诚是另一回事；他还提醒，这套安全体系有个危险，就是把技术上的不同意见，误当成政治上的异心。听证会的结果没有因为他的证词而改变：奥本海默还是被吊销了安全许可，从此离开了决策圈。",[11,39612,39613],{},"同年，他主持的一个委员会（因为代号而被称为「茶壶委员会」）向空军提交了一份报告，建议美国大力发展洲际弹道导弹——后来美国的第一代洲际导弹，多少都算这份报告的产物。一九五五年，艾森豪威尔把他任命为原子能委员会委员——委员会里像他这样以科学家身份直接坐进决策层的，并不多见。",[11,39615,39616],{},"他经手的事务，大多与核武器的设计和导弹的部署有关：他那个委员会算过一笔账，一枚能装进洲际导弹的一兆吨氢弹，足以把两英里内的一切抹平；于是氢弹的小型化跟洲际导弹一起，成了他这边推进的两件事。",[11,39618,39619],{},"一九五六年，比基尼环礁上进行了新的一轮核试验，第一枚「袖珍氢弹」就是在那轮试验里炸响的——那时候，他坐在委员会里，离权力中心很近。据说不管对面坐着的是将军还是总统，他都能一样谈笑风生、自信从容；艾森豪威尔后来回忆过，给他颁发总统自由勋章那次，这位科学家的风趣谈吐给自己留下了很深的印象。",[1305,39621,39622],{"id":39622},"灵感",[11,39624,39625],{},"工作之外，穿着讲究到有点固执：常年穿着马甲，口袋里插一块手绢，外套的扣子永远扣得整整齐齐——即便是在新墨西哥沙漠里搞原子弹的洛斯阿拉莫斯，别人穿着短袖短裤在酷热里晃悠，他也照样西装革履。他喜欢精巧的小玩意，复杂的机械玩具、稀奇古怪的小装置，只要摆在他面前，他都要摆弄一番。",[11,39627,39628],{},"工作起来他是不折不扣的工作狂，一个问题不解决，他能一直死磕下去，半夜里灵感一来，翻身就爬起来接着算。可一旦离开书桌，他对生活琐事的粗心大意也是出了名的。据说有一次，他生病卧床的妻子想让他倒杯水，诺依曼却愣是想不起杯子放在哪儿——而那时候他已经在那栋房子里住了整整十七年。",[11,39630,39631],{},"开车对他来说更是一场持续多年的灾难。他几乎每年都要报废一辆车，熟人们甚至专门给他反复出事故的那个路口起了个外号，叫「冯·诺依曼转角」。他喜欢把车开得飞快，据他身边人的说法，那是把拥挤的路段当成一道多体问题，边开边在心里算最优路线——至于算得好不好，看事故率就知道。",[11,39633,39634],{},"他其实从没考下过驾照，连着几次没过之后，还是在妻子的建议下使了点手段，才拿到执照。他开的是凯迪拉克，问他为什么挑这个牌子，他说：因为没人肯卖给我坦克。据说他跟保险公司解释事故经过时说过一句流传很广的话：路边的树本来排得整整齐齐地朝我迎面而来，一直都挺好的，直到有一棵没躲开。",[11,39636,39637],{},"他食量也惊人。在洛斯阿拉莫斯搞原子弹那几年，他常常开车一百二十英里，专程跑去一家墨西哥餐馆撮一顿，吃完再开一百二十英里回来——对他而言，这大概不算什么特别麻烦的事。",[11,39639,39640],{},"他的算术快到经常让身边人下不来台。他上课喜欢直接在黑板上写答案，中间的推导过程一概省略，学生们常常一脸茫然。有一回一个学生不死心，追问他这道题是不是还有别的解法，诺依曼愣了一下，一本正经地点头说：「有。」然后就没了下文——那个所谓「另一种解法」，大概永远留在他自己脑子里了。",[11,39642,39643],{},"还有一次，麻省理工的一个学生在走廊里拦住他，请教一道积分题。诺依曼瞄了一眼题目，脱口而出答案。学生说，教授，我知道书后面写的答案就是这个，我是想请您讲讲怎么算出来的。诺依曼又看了一眼题目，想了想，把答案又报了一遍。学生急了，反复解释自己要的是过程。诺依曼摊摊手，一脸无辜地说：「你还想怎样，我可是用了两种不同的方法才验算出这个答案的。」",[11,39645,39646],{},"他的心算速度还成就了一个流传很广的派对段子：一次晚宴上，女主人出了道题考他——两列火车相距一英里，各以每小时三十英里的速度迎面开来，一只苍蝇栖在其中一列车头，以每小时六十英里的速度朝对面飞去，碰到之后立刻折返，如此来回，直到两车相撞，问苍蝇一共飞了多少英里。",[11,39648,39649],{},"大多数懂点数学的人，第一反应是去算一个无穷级数求和，麻烦但也不难；诺依曼几乎没停顿就报出了正确答案。提问的人有点失望地说，其实有个巧办法——先算出两车相撞要多久（正好一分钟），再乘以苍蝇的速度就行，用不着算级数。诺依曼有点意外地反问：「可是我刚才算的就是级数啊。」",[11,39651,39652],{},"还有个流传更广的故事：福特汽车厂里一台发电机坏了，工程师们查了半天也没找出毛病，慕名请诺依曼来看。他围着机器转了一圈，用粉笔在外壳上画了一条线，让工人从那儿拆开检查——问题果然就出在那儿。福特问他要多少钱，诺依曼开了一张五千美元的账单，还附上明细：「画一条线，一美元；知道该画在哪儿，四千九百九十九美元。」（这则轶事在另一位工程师身上也有相似的版本，流传得久了，人们总爱把它安在算得最快的人头上。）",[11,39654,39655],{},"还有一件小事。象棋这件事，他其实也早就想过了。他一九二八年的极小极大定理，写的是两个人如何在博弈里各取最优；后来计算机下棋所用的那套搜索方法，追根溯源，都是从那棵博弈树长出来的。一九五六年，洛斯阿拉莫斯的一台机器第一次用它下赢了业余棋手。他连这个都已经想过了。",[11,39657,39658],{},"战后，一位在洛斯阿拉莫斯工作的物理学家碰到一道棘手的题，跑去请教这位顾问。诺依曼说：简单，用特征线法就能解。物理学家老老实实说，我不懂特征线法。诺依曼看着他：「年轻人，在数学里，你不需要理解什么，你只需要习惯它们。」这句话后来被记了下来，成了许多数学系学生自我安慰的箴言。",[1305,39660,39661],{"id":39661},"病床上的最后一年",[11,39663,39664],{},"一九五五年，诺依曼被查出癌症——多半是骨癌，具体是什么，各种说法都有，但大家普遍认为，跟他这些年没少亲临核试验现场、接触辐射脱不了关系。",[11,39666,39667],{},"诊断没有让他停下来。他坐着轮椅照常去五角大楼开会，担任的原子能委员会委员一直当到生命的最后，躺在病床上还在口述那部没写完的手稿。",[11,39669,39670],{},"病床边的一些细节，是身边人后来才慢慢讲出来的。一向对宗教毫不在意的他，主动请来一位天主教神父，安排了临终仪式——不过那位神父私下说，自己也说不准这场仪式究竟有没有真的抚慰到这位科学家。",[11,39672,39673],{},"这件事让很多老朋友意外——他这辈子对宗教既不信，也不讨论，更不反对，只是像对待一套不感兴趣的数学公理一样，敬而远之。",[11,39675,39676],{},"诺依曼对仪式的配合，更像是完成一项程序：到了这个阶段，该走的步骤走一遍。他问过诺依曼是否想谈谈上帝。诺依曼的回答很短，大意是：如果有一种更高级的存在，它大概不会用我们这种语言说话。",[11,39678,39679],{},"这话既是拒绝，也没有完全关上。像他晚年的很多判断一样——保留可能性，不给出承诺。",[11,39681,39682],{},"乌拉姆后来回忆，诺依曼在病中有一阵子确实表现出对死亡的恐惧，那种恐惧比周围人预想的更具体，也更不「体面」。他会长时间地计算自己还剩多少时间，问医生每种治疗方案的概率，像在评估一个项目的失败风险。死亡对他而言不是哲学问题，是一道突然摆在面前的、信息不完备的决策题。",[11,39684,39685],{},"而宗教能提供的，恰恰是他一生都在绕开的那种东西：不确定、不可验证、不要求算清楚。他的理性是他最锋利的工具，也是他的边界。临终前他愿意走一遍仪式，却无法交出那个「信任的跳跃」。",[11,39687,39688],{},"这大概是一个一生都在把世界翻译成数学的人，最后发现，有些东西翻译不过去。这个人太理性了，一生理性的他，宗教抚慰很难走进他的内心。",[11,39690,39691],{},"因为他脑子里装着太多国防机密，弥留之际，军方甚至派了警卫守在病房门口，生怕他意识模糊时无意间说漏了嘴。",[11,39693,39694],{},"乌拉姆在他去世后写的纪念文章里，回忆了一次谈话：诺依曼谈到技术的加速进步，说人类的处境正在逼近某种「本质上的奇点」——越过那个点之后，按我们熟悉的方式运转的人类事务，恐怕难以继续下去。这话经由乌拉姆的笔传下来，成了「技术奇点」这个概念最早的出处之一。",[11,39696,39697],{},"一九五七年二月八日，诺依曼在华盛顿的沃尔特·里德陆军医院去世，享年五十三岁，葬在新泽西州普林斯顿。他女儿玛丽娜后来在回忆录里写道，父亲弥留之际说过一句话：「没有人真正理解另一个人。」——这是那种让人没法反驳、也让人没法安心的句子。",[11,39699,39700],{},"去世六年后，同样来自匈牙利的诺贝尔物理学奖得主尤金·维格纳在一次演讲后被人问：匈牙利怎么在同一个年代冒出这么多天才？维格纳想都没想地回答——只有冯·诺依曼一个人是天才，别人不过是脑子比较好使的普通人罢了。据说在场没人反驳这句话，尽管诺依曼这辈子从没拿过什么重量级的科学奖章。",{"title":4117,"searchDepth":37677,"depth":37677,"links":39702},[39703,39704,39705,39706,39707,39708,39709,39710],{"id":39439,"depth":37677,"text":39439},{"id":39475,"depth":37677,"text":39475},{"id":39493,"depth":37677,"text":39493},{"id":39520,"depth":37677,"text":39520},{"id":39535,"depth":37677,"text":39535},{"id":39586,"depth":37677,"text":39586},{"id":39622,"depth":37677,"text":39622},{"id":39661,"depth":37677,"text":39661},{},"\u002Fblog\u002F2026\u002F0002-brief-biography-of-von-neumann",{"title":39434,"description":4117},"blog\u002F2026\u002F0002-brief-biography-of-von-neumann","从 1903 年布达佩斯的银行家之子，到 1957 年华盛顿病床上的原子能委员。他留下的不是一尊天才的神像，而是一道冷峻的背影——一个快得让时代跟不上的头脑，一个把理性用到极致、也走到理性尽头的人。",[39429],"2026-09-02T02:45:47+08:00","ebBVvqvtm_pZT1Y7mFkwy4D65P0Iftso4oiHir2Cu50",1794483698783]